Michael Pineda traded to Yankees & Yanks Sign Kuroda
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times & a few others have it as do our friends at RiverAveBlues. Jesus Montero & Hector Noesi going to Seattle for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.
We have our new Paper Champs of 2012
4 months ago
Jason Collette
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Any chance we can pry Montero away from Seattle
and convert him to 1b?
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I'd laugh uncontrollably
but, no.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions
but a trade possibility could open up there
Kuroda & Pineda…..just damn
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 8:32 PM EST up reply actions
I can see the Rays making a trade for a 1B that's in A+/AA too
And get Pena on a 1yr deal to finish up.
So much fun this Friday the 13th and that’s without the highly speculative JP story about a Rays stadium that has about a half dozen logistical holes.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
Also, Kuroda to the Yankees
I wish I wasn’t banned at OTM so freakin bad.
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for comments like this:
Rays haven’t really gotten any better.
Lost Kotchman/Damon
Over the Monster — SB Nation’s Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 7:31 PM CST up reply actions
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
That doesn't make any sense
For the site editor, he can do better.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
You would think.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
Anyone at OTM has a crap/biased opinion.
by mr. maniac on Jan 13, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
MR. mr. maniac, you are absolutely right.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
To be fair, this comment is being roundly mocked by their fans over there too
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
i checked after i read you said this, and i would say they barely refuted it.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
I agree.
2 or 3 people barely said a word.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 14, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions
THAT IS A SITE WRITER HOLY SHIT
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
"Jesus Montero vs. Matt Moore could the AL East's premier showdown in a year or two."
Welp.
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
HE'S ON FIRE!
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
WTF?
Why? Why would the Mariners trade a great hitter with no D anywhere and an alright starter in Noesi for a what looked like a future ace in Pineda? I know they needed hitting, but you coulda just signed Fielder and kept Pineda. Am I the only one that finds this stupid for the Mariners?
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
Nope.
Much better deal for NYY.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have Montero than Pineda
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldnt (If I'm the Mariners at least)
give me Pineda. A big hard throwing pitcher who is still young, gets strikeouts, and did very well last year. According to reports, Montero is a great batter(and he showed it in the majors) but absolutely sucks at defense and may be a future DH.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 13, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
He is a DH, but much easier for Seattle to get pitching rather than hitting
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
not to mention
that Pineda’s 2nd half last year was seriously unlucky.
sorry meant why would the Mariners trade for a
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 13, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
200M for Fielder is not a good investment
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Depends what you think about the two players involved.
The Mariners desperately need offense, and it seems lots of people think Pinieda has already peaked…he only has two real pitches, so people seem to be pessimistic about his staying power.
I can’t say I’ve looked into Pinieda closely enough to have an opinion, so I dunno. But that should provide some more context. Both teams acquired young stars with question marks, both of which filled a team need. Pretty good deal from that perspective.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 13, 2012 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
M's have Paxton, Hultzen, and Walker all coming down the pike with the 1st coming quickly
This is like Young/Garza, but up a level
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
But we got Jason Bartlett in our deal, the real star of that deal
Can’t top that.
Still, this was a fun trade to have happen on Friday the 13th.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
In the hitter's case
A LOT better
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
Ehhh
Delmon was runner up Rookie of the Year that year. He was highly regarded
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
He was, boy did everyone miss on that one
I had fun going back & reading old Sickel’s lists on Rays prospects on Minorleagueball.
Some hilarious stuff on there.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
We're talking about a clean-up hitter for a potential staff ace
We all saw Young’s flaws — Montero doesn’t have them.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
Except for the whole "no position" thing
In 960 AAA PA he’s put up a 126 wRC+. Forgive me if I’m not swooning over that
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
Better hitting approach than Delmon
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
So he is safer.
But that doesn’t make Montero look like an impact hitter all of a sudden. Montero will be a good hitter, but not a phenominal one.
What makes him only good, rather than elite?
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
That's like top 5% of MLB players
Pretty good for a 21yo
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not a genius, but the Garza/Young deal was done in September of 2007.
Going into 2007, Garza was the #21 overall prospect and played well for Minnesota. Delmon Young was the #3 overall prospect (and in the top 3 from 2004-2007). Delmon Young didn’t help his stock during the 2007 season, but he was still really highly regarded.
Pindea was #16 heading into 2011 and had a very good season, raising his stock. Montero is considered top 10.
That seems pretty similar to me.
It's probably because with the benefit of hindsight Delmon sucks butt
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
I think everyone figured he'd learn to take a walk
BZZZZZZZ WRONG
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still not sure what people saw in Delmon. Really, it baffles me.
I wasn’t nearly as educated on baseball back then, but still, I never really bought into the hype.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 13, 2012 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
The 26 HR between Montgomery and Durham as a 19-year-old was pretty impressive
He also hit .315 and stole 32 bases that year. He pretty much looked like the real deal outside of his walk rate
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Jan 13, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
Huh, fair enough. That is ridiculous.
If I’d been more up on things back then, guess I would’ve been in his camp too.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 13, 2012 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
That deal was done after the season was over -- more like December
A lot is going to have to go wrong for Montero to end up like Young did after the trade. He only won ROY that season because he fell into 93 RBI.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
November I believe
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions
Pineda > Garza & Montero > Young
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty cool deal.
Give me the Seattle side of it though. I’d prefer the bat.
Offensively, how far are we away from the Yanks?
LF: Jennings/Garnder: Edge Jennings.
CF: Granderson/Upton: Edge Granderson (by quite a bit, even with regression)
RF: Joyce/Swisher: Even or slight edge to Rays.
3B: Longo/Arod: Edge Longo.
SS: Briggy/Jeter: Edge Yanks.
2B: Zobrist/Cano: Even
1B: ??/Tex: Edge Yanks.
DH: Scott/??: Edge Rays.
Are we talking in a vacuum?
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
Tex vs. our 1B
compensates for any of our advantages
I'd say Rays are better in LF, 3B, DH
Even in RF, 2B, maybe CF. Yanks have C, 1B, SS advantage
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take what I have above
Rays scored 397R on the road to the Yankees 396R so they’re closer than most think
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I saw it at the end of the season
Had to go look it up to believe it.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
Well
The Trop is the road for the Yanks, and NYS is the road for the Rays, so, this accounts for over 10% of those totals…Would be interested to see the totals with this factored out.
by GomesSweetGomes on Jan 13, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
You can subtract it out
I’m too lazy
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Though I’d go SF1 and let you do the work.
Lets just split the difference and assume their offense is somewhere btw 5-10% above ours. Thats close enough where defense, pitching, and luck easily put us right there with them.
by GomesSweetGomes on Jan 13, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
For the Road
Yankees wRC+ is 102, Rays is 109
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I know, it was about how much NYS/Trop affected each team
On the road
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
true, but they do have different philosophies depending on where they are.
lots of lefties trying to pull balls to the short porch in NYS.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Swish >>> Joyce on offense
are you kidding me?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
Well, Joyce will be platooning with Guyer.
Joyce has had a 129 wrc+ in each of the past two years. Nick Swisher has been 124,132,122 in each of the past three years respectively.
Am I missing something?
Yes, Swisher doesn't need to be platooned and he's been a good hitter for quite a while.
Joyce jumps him because of a single stat that is so high because he’s not allowed to bat against pitchers he can’t hit.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
Then the platoon is better than Swisher, not Joyce by himself.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
The original point of the post stands, though
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I just put Joyce's name there since he would get most of the ABs.
Sorry if that caused the confusion.
This should have been up with the Montero posts.
wRC+ isn’t adjusted for parks and HV plays in a pitcher’s park.
Cano sacrificed BBs for power
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yup. Cano gets the NY treatment, while everyone underrates Zo.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 13, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
Jennings over Gardner?
Zobrist Cano even?
????
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
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"Every day is a great day for hockey."
Meh, I see
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
please use headers at DRaysBay.com
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Apologies
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
We're pretty far
LF: Jennings/Garnder: Edge Jennings.
No way. Gardner is a great player defensively and gets on base at a high rate. To the tune of 5.1 WAR last year and 11.2 over the past two years. Jennings is a 1.5 – 2.5 WAR player next year at best I believe.
CF: Granderson/Upton: Edge Granderson (by quite a bit, even with regression)
Right on.
RF: Joyce/Swisher: Even or slight edge to Rays.
Again, no. Swisher’s D is improving, and Joyce has bad splits. Swisher is a much better hitter.
3B: Longo/Arod: Edge Longo.
Of course.
SS: Briggy/Jeter: Edge Yanks.
I don’t think the word “Edge” describes this gap well enough.
2B: Zobrist/Cano: Even
OK, I can get behind that,
1B: ??/Tex: Edge Yanks.
OK
DH: Scott/??: Edge Rays.
No. They will have somebody at DH who is respectable, much more so than Scott.
At best, the Rays take 2 or 3.
by elijah.dukes on Jan 14, 2012 4:35 AM EST up reply actions
Jennings was 2.5 fWAR over just the summer last season.
2.5 is his max next season? wtf?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 14, 2012 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
wRC, not WAR basis.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
too early to say Scott will be better than Andruw/whatever else, Scott is an unknown quantity coming off surgery.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Jon Heyman:
yankees redo rotation, but need a hitter. pena is one they are considering.
As Clay Davis would say, Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit.
GO FOR FIELDER NOT PENA
They need to learn to share =(
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:01 PM EST up reply actions
They should Sign Kotchman!
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 13, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
.209 44 HRs in that little league park
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
Is that his line @ the ASB?
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
in April
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
This is just lol-worthy...
@DickieV Dick Vitale
@Buster_ESPN y can’t @RaysJoeMaddon get his ppl to move a starter since they have a surplus to Mariners 4 Montero?
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
YESSSSSSSSS
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 9:06 PM EST up reply actions
Motero or Smoak
either works for me. Prefer Montero.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 13, 2012 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
It'd have to be a 3-team trade to get all the pieces lined up I think
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just sayin
If they are looking for offense, it’s unlikely they trade either. But if they did, probly Smoak,I would trade a starter for him.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 13, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
It'd take more than one starter
Would you guys be willing to trade one of Davis/Niemann and one of Archer/Torres?
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Even that might not be enough though
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
They want bats
That’s why an extra team my be required.
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
I'm convinced Vitale is half the comments on the Heater
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
It's about as logical as one of those comments
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
This opens up a move for us.
Give them a young MLB ready SP (Archer/Colome) for Smoak, whilst they sign Fielder.
they don't need more pitching right now
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
if they sign Fielder, they definitely don't need Smoak
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 14, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
so? they'll want spects for him, probably positional ones. they do not need Niemann or Davis, and I just can't see how interested they'd be in archer/torres/cobb
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
The Mariners certainly could use an experienced, inning eater starter in their rotation now
Outside of Hernandez and Vargas, the Mariners have no starters with more than 15 games started in the majors(Furbush..15 and Beavans..12). The other prospects are all young and still in the low minors(Paxton(AA), Walker, Hultzen) and won’t be rushed to the majors. They are not going to compete over the next two seasons but having some veteran type arms(young with experience and not too expensive like Neimann or Davis) would help transition their rotation, as opposed to rushing them along.
The MLBGods continue taking revenge on Boras
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:12 PM EST reply actions
Bad off-season for GMs to stop sniffing glue
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
Really curious to see how the AL stacks up this year, given that for once it's not a guarantee that the wild card comes from the east
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 9:25 PM EST reply actions
for the moment
but Bud sounds pretty optimistic there will be two in ’12
Your source for replacement level commentary
...and BJ.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Time to re-sign Kotchman
That’ll show the Yankees!!!!!!!
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 13, 2012 9:28 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
gotta give credit
Yankees found a way to get good young pitching. And adding kuroda…yankees had a good offseason in one day.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 13, 2012 9:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Kuroda won't be anything special. gave up 24 homers to the NL West.
I predict he’ll be in the low-to-mid 4 eras. Probably a good innings eater though.
His FIP has been good the past two years.
His ERA will rise for sure, but his quality of pitching won’t.
That is why ERA doesn’t matter. It makes pitchers in hitter’s parks look worse while they are still performing well. You gain on offense and lose on defense according to some stats, which is why park adjusted stats are so important.
His FIP will go up
2011 is the highest it’s ever been and it’s projected to go higher. Like I said, solid innings-eater, but he’s not gonna be anything special.
Only Bill James has him going up.
And only by a little.And his xFIL hints that he should have been better.
gotta give credit
Yankees found a way to get good young pitching. And adding kuroda…yankees had a good offseason in one day.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 13, 2012 9:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I know Smoak has not produced as expected but he is only 25 years old...
…and was definitely rushed to the majors(only 773 MiL ab’s). Put that together with a tough place to hit and a worse team with little to play for and you have a guy who needs a change of scenery. Something always intriguing about a young switch hitting 1st baseman(decent fielder), who, while he may not have shown a lot of power yet, has a good eye and could be a solid, if not spectacular hitter.
Buy low, good risk for the Rays at least as an option for 1st base? Possibly for Neimann? Maybe not the impact bat one might want for 2012 but could be a part of a 1st base rotation (with a look towards the future if he develops)
If they lost faith in Smoak they might
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
well they now have an opening
Replace some of pinedas production while upgrading the offense. But most likely they give smoak another year and hope they have a nice young core to build around with ackley, smoak, and montero.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 13, 2012 9:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
What will they do with Carp?
Is Jesus going to DH? I can see them trading either Carp or Smoak, and they would receive more for a Smaok trade.
Davis/Neiman and Luke Scott for Montero
Sign Pena or Kotch and that should do it.
Trade away a guy we just signed(Scott) who is not a young promising hitter,
For a promising young hitter. Why would the Mariners do this for one? Get older and trade the guy you just acquired while also taking on salary.While it would work for us, it’s just another move that makes no sense for the M’s.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 13, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Does Carp have any defensive ability?
I have not seen or read much on Carp.
Is he strictly a DH?
"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"
Pineda for montero=
Shields for Harper?
by playjoyce on Jan 13, 2012 9:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Hmmmmm, Pena....Yanks could offer a short porch, the same amount of money or maybe more(maybe guranteed for 2 years)
..playing in front of big crowds, closer to his home town……
If he doesn’t mind giving up 1st base, it may be too good to turn down.
Rays are more fun to play with
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
They have a 2014 budget
The soft cap of 189M, they’re trying to beat it
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
Unlikely they'd do more than 1-2
So 2014 doesn’t matter too much
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Quick questions.
When someone has a 120 wrc+, does that mean they are 20% or 40% above average?
And does anyone know how to figure out win totals (projections) based off of projected WAR? I know we did that last year, and I’d like to do it again.
BUT YOU JUST BOUGHT A BUNCH OF STAT BOOKS FOR NERDS!
by Passionate Apathy on Jan 13, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
I think a team has a base-win total of 46
So just add to that
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
There is no way this is correct.
I got 106 wins from the Rays while being very objective (regression from Zobrist, LF, etc…) and I put 0 WAR from 1b.
There's a spreadsheet here you can use
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 13, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
I'll post my total info tomorrow.
But the Rays are much much better than anyone is giving them credit for. It looks like Olney is right.
here
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks.
I do remember some poster here saying that there was an issue and that it should actually be double based on the formula.
Some + stats use different formulas
Some are /2 of the +
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 13, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Their website is mistaken
It’s half the difference
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 13, 2012 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure you're wrong about this, bud.
I’ve asked around and looked around, and I can’t find anyone or anything that backs you up. You have a source?
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 13, 2012 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Plug in the numbers yourself if you don't believe me
Looking at Billy Butler (just because I have his fangraphs sheet open already) he had a .351 wOBA and a 120 wRC+ last season. Given that league average wOBA was .316 and assuming that the Royals had an average park (which isn’t true, but is close enough to true) we get that Butler did .035/.316=11% above league average.
Try it with any other hitter
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 15, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
Do you know the logic behind that?
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 15, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
why do math when you can ask people?
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10%?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 13, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder what the Sox are going to do
at this point the way rosters are they are a pretty solid 3rd place team with Toronto not that far behind.
I think they sign Oswalt to 1 year deal
to replace Lackey and to match the Yankee’s signing Kiroda.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 13, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Billy Martin said
in one of his books that Pitching is easy to find…he said they are everywhere. I adamantly disagree but what has been going on in MLB over the last two years makes me wonder if Billy’s ghost isn’t hanging around in front offices:
Zach Greinke to Milwaukee.
Shaun Marcum to Milwaukee.
Matt Garza to Chicago.
Ubaldo Jiminez to Cleveland.
Doug Fister to Detroit.
Trevor Cahill to Arizona.
Gio Gonzalez to Washington.
Mat Latos to Cincinnati.
Micheal Pineda to New York.
Now, many of these deals are driven by economics but all were under team control for multiple years and the players didn’t have to be dealt.
Just seems kind of odd to see so many what are considered top of the rotation successful pitchers moved over the past 2 seasons.
I think this trade blows up on the Yankees.
I’ve never been a Pineda fan although he had a solid rookie season. In 2009 i had Pineda as nothing more than a bullpen arm and Keith Law was in that same group. I’ll go out on a limb and say Pineda gets blown up in 2012 in the AL East.
I will be disgusted to see Pena in pinstripes
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
This reads like a facebook status update
Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
Yanks interest in Pena
It could be a ploy to drive Carlos’ price up.
"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"
I doubt that...
…Prince will be a Ranger, in my humble opinion.
"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"
Pineda gave up 18 HR last year pitching in Safeco and from July 4 on was awful
Did the M’s see some red flags?
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decent home/away splits with babip, baa, etc
And pitching in that hitters haven will not help those splits either. What’s odd is pineda gave up more HR at safeco than on road.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 13, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think you are exaggerating.
On July 4, he pitched 6 innings giving up 2 hits & 1 run with 2 BBs and 7 Ks.
He then had 3 very poor games in a row, although he continued to strike people out without walking many.
He followed that slump up with 6.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs (1 earned), 4 BBs and 10 Ks and except for 1 more poor start his remaining 6 starts were all pretty good. In his next to last start he went 8 innings allowing 5 hits & 3 runs with 1 BB and 8 Ks. His last start was just 4 innings.
Overall, he had 12 starts beginning on July 4 and in 68 IP allowed 60 hits & 23 BBs and had 74 Ks. He did show signs of fatigue, generally going only 6 innings, and had a few poor outings, but otherwise remained an impressive pitcher. Not as good as his early season work, but not awful either.
top choices for "big bat"
1. Billy butler
2. Paul konerko
3. Lucas duda
4. Mark trumbo
5. Carlos Pena
6. Carlos lee
7. Derrick lee
8. Andy laroche
9. Seth Smith
10. Casey kotchman
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 13, 2012 11:48 PM EST reply actions
At this point Lucas Duda might as well be Lucas McCain--what's he done at the MLB level?
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Hit .273/.347/.468 in 439 PA while playing in a pitcher's park
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Jan 13, 2012 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
I must have missed his appearances on MLB Extra innings--where was that at?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Last year was pretty damn good
347pa .292/.370/.482 10 hr 9.5 bb% 16.4 k% 136 wrC+ 22.5 ld%
Like scott, is better v. righties but not too bad v. lefties either. Good power and discipline, me likey
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 14, 2012 1:20 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
no horrible splits vs lhp/rhp
Can hit for power and has 5 yrs of team control. Not a lot to go on but last yrs half season was very impressive.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 13, 2012 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
Based on overall need and circumstances...
…my pick is Pena.
"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"
I'm similar
1. Billy Butler
2. Paul Konerko
3. Carlos Lee
4. Carlos Pena
5. Lucas Duda
6. Jesus Guzman
7. Mark Trumbo
8. Gaby Sanchez
9. Derrek Lee
10. Casey Kotchman
11. Seth Smith
12. Adam Dunn
[50 feet of crap]
9,438. Andy LaRoche
I have to say that I start to lose interest right around #5.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 14, 2012 12:18 AM EST up reply actions
trumbo does have serious power and i would not be disappointed if we got him
And Seth Smith would be fine vs RHP. His ability to play the field would give flexibility and guyer could get starts vs LHP, etc. I would envision it kind of like what the rays might have done if they had signed crisp.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 14, 2012 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
LaRoche is around 69 on my list
Canseco at 420
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
With the new playoff system, all the Red Sox need is a 3rd place finish and beat us in a one game playoff
Price v Lester
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Assuming Rangers/Angels aren't there.
I really don’t like this 1 game playoff.
162 game season to just throw it all on 1 game.
I feel confident with the team we have assuming we get a decent 1B.
But now the Red Sox really have to make a move or risk falling way behind. Which will make us have to make a move just to keep up.
eh, im warming up to it
For traditionalists it puts emphasis back on winning division. Gives teams like rays a better chance to compete against large markets and its equal. It may only be one game, but its that way for both teams. No different than a game 5 or game 7 scenario or a game 163.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 14, 2012 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
We'll have to see.
I do like putting the emphasis on winning the divison, but given our situation that isn’t exactly easy by any stretch. We’ll have to see how it plays out over the next few years.
Too many other candidates to focus on just the RedSox.
Still not a true fan of it though.
Remember when stat bot used to kiss the ring of Jack Z?
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by sternfan1 on Jan 13, 2012 11:54 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
underappreciated, this is gold folx
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Another question.
I have ran my projections and I want to know how much I should discount them since all these top teams will be playing eachother. For example, the Rays, Yanks, and Red Sox have all shot under their total WAR numbers the past few years, probably due to their amount of games versus eachother.
For the projections, I precidcted the 25 man rosters, estimated the WAR totals as objectively as possible, and added them to the base of 46 (although I have heard 48 is the right number).
This is what I got:
Rays: 106 wins (with 0 WAR at 1B)
Yankees: 105 wins (with 0 WAR at DH)
Red Sox: 104 wins.
Blue Jays: 90 wins.
For the Rays, the lineup is so much more impressive than expected even when I put some regression for Zobrist, Joyce, and Jennings. I raised Longo’s and Upton’s. I put Scott’s WAR at 1.8, assuming that his bat returns while also lowing his WAR because of his DH spot. I lowered Badenhop’s, Peralta’s, and Farn’s while raising McGee’s, Howell’s (not by much), and Rodney’s. Shields regressed, Price remained, Hellickson took a nice step forward, Niemann remained, and Moore was put at a modest 3.5.
For the Yanks, I kept most of the players the same. The few exceptions were the raising of Soriano and Arod while the lowering of Granderson.
For the Red Sox, I had Crawford getting a nice boost back to 5.6. I feel that the Red Sox will undershoot this projection due to injuries. Ellsbury was the main regressor. RF got a nice boost and their rotation still sucks. I honestly had no idea what to give bard and settled at 2.5.
For the Jays, I followed most of the fan projections which seemed to be far too optimistic. However, the final results still isn’t glowing. The rotation is ugly and the defense pulls the lineup down quite a bit.
Thoughts? I would like to see some others try this out…..
...
Did the total outs and IP lineup with to a full season’s worth. May be you overestimated.
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 14, 2012 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
I didn't do it the nice long way.
I merely added up the WAR figures. Interestingly enough, the Rays would not have been #1 in any catergory in they had been from the past year.
When I ran the calculator with our current players with a .325 wOBA DH and a .350 wOBA 1B.
I came up with 95 wins which I think will be around what I’d expect with a decent 1B.
Who do you think won the deal?
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Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
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Seems like a good trade for both
M’s get a good bat.
Yanks get a good pitcher.
"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"
Seriously now
Judging by the moves the Yanks made, the wildcard will be out of the AL East once again. Don’t want to sound like Mr. Obvious here, but it’s true.
Not entirely true
The AL West has two good teams and two garbage teams.
The AL East has three good teams, one solid team, and one garbage team.
Not out of the realm of possibility that the East beats itself up enough to give the wildcard to the West.
"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"
Pena...been there done that?
He is not the 40 HR guy fans remember from pre-2009. His power numbers are regressing(as might a 34 year old), his HR/FB is going down, as his WAR, yet his KO’s are still the same and he is borderline useless against lefties. Plus his defense is not what it once was either.
Coming back to the AL East may showcase his regression even more and at 7-8 million for one year(or more), the Rays may be better off looking at a newer solution, IMO.
This is pretty much how I feel
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 14, 2012 4:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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