2012 Rays ZiPS Projections Out
Dan Szymborski does great work and he now releases his ZiPS projections for the season. Enjoy!
4 months ago
Jason Collette
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I'll never understand the IP.
The starters innings are just so crazily cautious. 150 for Moore? 215 for Shields? 200 for Price?
I take back Shields.
I thought he had 230 innings last year.
Still, it is cautios. Not crazy cautious, but cautious. One of the main reasons Shields didn’t get more innings was because of his poor stats that year.
BJ Upton's top comparison is Mike Cameron
which really seems fitting.
as it should be...
One that’s been tossed around this place quite a bit if memory serves me correctly
by Jason Collette on Jan 18, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Too bad BJ being anything less than Willie Mays is bad
Because Mike Cameron was a horrible player #expectations
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 18, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
Moore
2 of the 3 ODDIBE comps for Moore are Kazmir and Tony Saunders. I can only hope Moore has a better (ending to his) career then those two.
Sam Fuld's #1 Comp
Stubby Clapp
That is awesome
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
by Transplanted on Jan 18, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
I think they need to put him and Johnny Damon somewhere, so they just go to there former team.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
Friedman'd
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jan 18, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I look forward to the Ashley Ashley spread over at Rays Index
from noted Rays blogger and friend of the site Korque Gaynz.
Use the force, Lueke
by nomoredevil on Jan 18, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Pretty pessimistic for jennings
Half of his hr total last season (24 including playoffs).
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 18, 2012 4:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Agreed.
Jennings developed a new trend last year. His ISO went up, his BA went down (not due to BABIP), and his Ks went up. I really think he is developing into more of a power hitter, so the Upton comparison is looking better every day.
Colby Rasmus seems like a pretty good comp actually
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 18, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Rasmus looks like a good comp to Upton
Can’t reach that potential and strikes out a ton.
Matt Moore. That is all.
these projections suck
No one outside of longoria is predicted to have a good year. This doesn’t appear to allow for growth or development but is predicated only on what players have done. I’ll be shocked if most if not all of our starters don’t surpass these projections.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 18, 2012 5:37 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Yo this is 50th percentile projections we're dealing with
It’s human nature to project slightly better than that
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 18, 2012 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
btw, these projections are considered one of the best in the business
Compare these to the lofty Bill James projections and find a happy medium if you so wish.
by Jason Collette on Jan 18, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Am I reading this wrong?
Between Price, Shields, Hellboy, Neimann, Davis, Cobb and Moore they project almost 200 games started?
I expect our offensive numbers (as a team) to jump waaaay up this year.
Almost everyone in our lineup is going nowhere but up, the team BABIP was 2nd-worst in the league at .281, and we have improved DH and are likely to improve 1B from last year. As long as our pitching and defense stay where we are used to it being, we should be a 95+ win team.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
I really like mr. maniac's projection of the lineup.
Now, if we can add Pena, I will be expected a lot from the team this year.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 18, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions
Is that the Pena that has had three straight years of regression against lefties...
…to the point that he was down to a 59 wRC+, a .266 wOBA,a .594 OPS, a .200 ISO and still KO’s at %31?
Or do we just ignore that?
We are not going to improve at 1b
This year over last year, unless we bring back Kotch or sign Prince. Kotch put 3 war on the board and there is nothing out there that will improve or match that # at 1b. Lets try to get close to reality with these comments fellas
Kotch already has a season under his belt
where he has topped last years total. To say zippy is foolish. 50% is closer to reality
That same season Carlos Pena had like a 14 WAR season
Let’s not kid anyone here, there’s 0 chance of Kotchman re or outproducing his 2011 (not that he won’t be a valuable piece)
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 18, 2012 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
If the Rays won't trade for Carlos Lee, I would settle for signing Derrek Lee for 4 million and let him share 1st base with Juan Miranda.
I think he is a forgotten ST invite who reminds me a lot of Pena who got his chance as a 28 year old. He has a similar power stroke, had a very productive and consistent MiL career and may put up, at least similar numbers to Pena but for 500K. Plus he appears to be a decent fielder. Oddly enough, he has better reverse splits in his ML experience. Could give Maddon a lot of fun platooning him and D. Lee.
Nothing on the market can match 3 wins including Casey Kotchman
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 18, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Still lots of options all different ways.
What I don’t see is paying Pena 6-8 million to be productive only against RH’ers. There is no reason to think his splits versus lefties is going to dramatically turn around just because he comes back to the Rays. Any team interested in Pena will have to deal with that same problem. Why would the Rays pay that much as well.
Which is why AF possibly coming up with two guys to handle 1st base, especially on the cheap, is in play. And even Scott, at some point, could be part of that mix as well.
Matt Moore BB/9
4.28? Really?? Computers and algorithms are fine but sometimes you need to hit the “override” button as with Moore’s BB/9 prediction.
I think this is could be a case
where the ZiPs “one size fits all” algorithm of jacking up the walk rates of ALL pitchers with little minor league experience needs a manual override. Matt Moore shouldn’t be regressed to the same level as any other minor league pitcher coming up.
Sure ZiPS could be right, but a walk rate that high is “no way” the mean or median prediction for his BB/9 in 2012. If Vegas put this number up on the board (min 100 ip) they’d risk going broke. Ask yourself this, would you take the over or under on a 4.28 BB/9 for Matt Moore in 2012.
by Xeifrank on Jan 19, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think Hellickson is more prone to pitching around hitters with the low 90's fastball.
Moore, I think, will be attacking the strike-zone with the power stuff.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 19, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
The advanced metrics have Briggy as exactly average thus far
But he’s only had 1,200 innings at SS in the majors. That’s not even worth a full season yet. The numbers should catch up as the sample grows.
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 19, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
FSR
The Fans Scouting Report which I’ve translated, have Brignac as +7.5 runs per 150 at SS. Basically between Rafael Furcal (high end) and Asdrubal Cabrera (low end).
That sounds great
Do you have the whole list published somewhere or in a file?
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 19, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
In a file
for input into my simulator.
Top players by position.
C – Matt Wieters (12.1 per 150 G)
1B – Albert Pujols (8.78)
2B – Brandon Phillips (13.1)
3B – Evan Longoria (15.7)
SS – Troy Tulowitzki (20.8)
LF – Gerardo Parra (12.1)
CF – Franklin Guitierez/Peter Bourjos (25.0)
RF – Ichiro Suzuki (12.0)
I admit I don't know much about advanced metrics
but Briggy sure looks like a very good to excellent defensive SS during the game. Does the projection of avg mean that he is only providing avg impact because of not playing many innings?
No, it means he is average because he has played average.
But, like Ben said, the number should go up as he gets more time there.
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