Not A Fan Of Jake McGee's Approach
Last week I decided to take a look at a few of the Tampa Bay Rays pitchers and try and find a pattern in the way they pitch and find some rhyme and reasoning in their approach. I took a look at Alex Cobb's approach and came away a bigger fan of his and really want him to be the Rays 5th starter in 2012.
Another pitcher that I have always liked and decided to take a look at was left-handed flame thrower Jake McGee. I've been a fan of McGee since he debuted in Rookie Ball at the age of 17 and he has had a fantastic minor league track record with nearly a 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
He was simply overpowering hitters in the minors but due to a lack of a third pitch and Tommy John surgery he has been relegated to the bullpen where he has been lights out in his minor league career.
McGee has absolutely nothing to prove at the minor league level and will be in the Rays bullpen for all of 2012. McGee only has 33 innings under his belt in the Major Leagues and 28 of them came in 2011. He has maintained the high strikeout rate in his small sample of innings in the Majors with a strikeout per inning but he also has a newfound trait that the Rays would love to get rid of and it's his proneness to the long ball.
Prior to 2011 McGee never had a HR/9 higher than 0.8 and that was in his first professional season when he posted a 0.8 HR/9. Last year in Triple-A Durham McGee allowed 1.1 HR/9 and 1.6 HR/9 in the Major Leagues. Why, all of a sudden, was McGee giving up homeruns at such a higher rate? I think it was due to a lack of approach. Take a look at his pitch chart from 2011 (h/t to Texas Leaguers Pitchf/X):
As you can see, he seems to always be near the middle of the strike zone and a good amount of his pitches are in the middle and up. There is simply way too much blank space on the outer quadrants for my liking. It's almost as if he is simply trying to get the pitch over.
Even when McGee gets to an 0-2 count he leaves a lot of fastballs in the middle of the zone:
It's as if he has zero command of his fastball. Sure, it sits 94-96 and he can dial it up to 98 but that will not fool a lot of Big League hitters, especially when the pitch is right down the pipe. It's like a 95 mph batting practice pitch to Big League hitters.
One other thing I noticed about McGee was the inconsistency of his slider in both velocity and spin angle. Take a look:
The one pitch that he could actually seem to keep down he could not give any consistentcy to.
I am playing with small sample sizes here but as a reliever we don't get a whole lot to work with. On most nights he gets one inning to hold a lead or to keep a game with in a run or two. This type of approach is not fitting of a reliever who belongs in high-leverage situations no matter how good his stuff can be. If his approach, or lack thereof, remains he may not be much help in close games.
The good news, though, is that these are potentially fixable problems. With a little tinkering from Jim Hickey and company I think McGee could turn his lack of approach around and we could see a very good weapon in Jake McGee out of the pen.
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I think with the SSS this is more telling of his past performance rather than indicative of his future
We know his stuff is there, but he needs to get it under control. This is a huge year for him. If the first half of the season looks like this? Jake might not be around much longer… On another note, great work. (Again)
by BJ the Bossman on Jan 20, 2012 10:20 AM EST reply actions
That 12.5 HR/FB % seems awfully high.
And he gave up 4 homers in an awfully short amount of time.
The numbers just seem really fluky. After all, he has always been below 10% in him minor league career.
the last thing to come back after TJS is command. i really hope that's what is going on here or he'll never be a back-end reliever.
I agree but the surgery was in July of 2008.
It will be 4 years come the trade deadline so I hope it returns.
gawd. didnt realize it was that long ago.
so his first full season back after the surgery was 2010. so perhaps 2011 he was just starting to feel comfortable again (crosses fingers), and now he’ll be good to go.
Thought process
“That can’t be right”
“Google ‘Jake McGee ref’”
“holy crap that’s right”
Vroom vroom party starter
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by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
me too. then i thought about it. i called my dad from my last job. i quit my last job for this one almost 3 years ago to the day.
time flies when your effin around on the interwebz.
I dunno, aren't there plenty of high octane relievers that do fine just gunning in fastballs?
I’d love to see less fastballs dead over the middle as well, but I’m not that concerned about it, I guess. Or at least, I’d like to see his pitch spattering compared to other similar relievers before getting too worried.
I do think the inconsistency with his slider was a big problem…I think that was one of the things he was supposed to work on in the minors.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 20, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Damn...fewer*
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 20, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
More disturbing was the 89-91 FB that showed up from time to time before his demotion
Can’t throw that down the middle
Use the force, Lueke
his FIP was 4.7, though. he needs to cut down on the "down-the-middle" pitches if he wants to limit the HRs.
yes. but that controls for hr/fb%. my point was if he keeps grroving them, he'll continue to have HR problems.
But he never had HR issues in the minors.
It is fluky. Why take a stance on SHields last year and switch on McGee?
because i think shields has better command.
and what freezo said regarding milb vs. mlb.
there’s a difference b/w RP and SP. shields works more pitches in more locations. it’s why FIP isbetter for RP vs xFIP for SP.
It'll be nice to see you pull out of Beckham and surprise in McGee
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by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
He typo'd if as in
I made a sex joke
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by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Oh crap, I thought rglass posted that originally
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by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
eh? eh?
Don’t forget to tip the waitress
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by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
I'd be curious to see a split of pre and post call-up within the season
He looked stronger toward the end of the season while looking wretched early on
by Jason Collette on Jan 20, 2012 11:32 AM EST reply actions
Yeah, I think his slider and location was a bit better the second time around.
That’d certainly be worth a look.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 20, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Lack of Command
Has always been the chink in his armor. Even before the TJS. He is most effective when seen in small doses.
Didn't he give up like 4 homers in 4 straight appearences and then ended the season on fire?
I particularly remember what he did when Price got a bat hit back at his chest.
Matt Moore. That is all.
It was 4 out of 5 appearances ranging from 8/6-8/22.
After his last HR allowed he has 9 strikeouts in 10.1 innings with a 3.48 ERA.

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