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201804_cubs_pena_baseball

He's baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!

Heyman says Pena is getting $7.25M on a 1 yr deal. Amazing that another $7M was found in the budget as it was for Soriano in 2010.

Full analysis forthcoming but whose smile is bigger right now - Pena's or the one on your own face?

4 months ago Images_tiny Jason Collette 489 comments 6 recs  | 

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Do you know what your children are doing on the internet?

WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now

Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw

by SRQman on Jan 20, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

You know this answer

I neglect and ignore my kids. For all I know, they’re at OTTOTD right now

by Jason Collette on Jan 20, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Carlos never got a bobblehead, did he?

This is the season to rectify that grievous oversight.

by News Fedora on Jan 20, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

EXCELLENT!!

Great fit. Great glove, needed power and good ‘chemistry’.

HAPPYHAPPYJOYJOY!!!!

by TheGrinch on Jan 20, 2012 12:08 PM EST reply actions  

HARD

Maddon's Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.

by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT

by Doug09 on Jan 20, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

HAVE

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 20, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait what??? We got him???? YES

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Oh my God~!!!

Yes yes yes
gogogogogogogogo

by coolzz on Jan 20, 2012 12:12 PM EST reply actions  

RF bleachers are happy

Pena & Scott. Power and protection with no drop in D. Love It !!

Believe in the Fuld

by RayJzone on Jan 20, 2012 12:13 PM EST reply actions  

What's amazing is not that the Rays 'found' $7 million but did it without

trading Shields, Price or BJ, something many here thought was a must.

I guess this won’t be the year Russ Canzler gets 500 PA’s

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Jan 20, 2012 12:14 PM EST reply actions  

Revisit Hanigan?

Except the Reds just signed him to a 3 year, $4 million deal…

by Travis Lee on Jan 20, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions  

This

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

$7.25 million?

Any info on options for a second year?

by Travis Lee on Jan 20, 2012 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

Nova & Pineda

Thinking we’ll fare slightly better against ’em than last year.

by generaltso on Jan 20, 2012 12:15 PM EST reply actions  

whiff king

Look, I like his glove, but 220 and the strikeouts gotta go. Esp. with “Mr. Called 3rd strike” BJ Upton in the same line up!

by Buglooseontherug on Jan 20, 2012 12:15 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

...and Upton

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

I know, right?

I just watched Moneyball too. We should have signed Hatteberg!

by generaltso on Jan 20, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

It's a non-productive out

Sacrifice fly is an out, but moves runner(s) to the next base and often plates a run. Man on second less than 2 outs, grounder to the right side usually moves the runner to third. Strikeout strands runners.

One good thing about a strikeout is that it is not a double play, except for the strikeout doubleplay, but that’s different.

by Hipster Doofus on Jan 20, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Not really

You said, “any other out.” There are productive outs and non-productive outs, and a strikeout is a non-productive out. A strikeout has no chance of moving a runner over . So there are outs that are better than a strikeout.

I’d still rather see the batter hit the ball—and give it a chance to find a hole—than to strikeout.

BTW this has nothing to do with me not wanting Pena back, because I’m happy with having him back. Just trying to answer the question about strikeouts.

by Hipster Doofus on Jan 20, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions  

every study shows that this difference is <1%

balls put in play can turn into double plays; that downside risk outweighs almost all of the “productive” upside.

Now, you can do something truly stupid with a strikeout-prone hitter, like put on the hit-and-run. But the idea that strikeouts are inherently worse than other outs is not borne out by the data.

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Study

The study I saw said that 99% of “studies” produced the result promoted by the person doing the study.

I agree that a strikeout is basically the same thing as any other out…..except in, you know, key situations in close games. But it’s nonsense to not accept the reality that in many game-on-the-line at bats, the thing you cannot afford to do is strike out. The 25% chance that the ball you put in play will end up as a base hit negates the 10% (my offhand estimate) chance that the ball in play will end up as a double play. Or so it seems to me.

by cocanat on Jan 20, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

1st and 3rd, nobody out, no score, 2nd inning.

grounder to SS, turn DP, run scores. Game ends 1-0. You win on a DP and great pitching.

If that batter K’s, and the next two batters K, extra innings, relief pitcher gives up a run, you lose.

The DP was better than the K.

by Hipster Doofus on Jan 20, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

What's the run expectancy for 1st/3rd 1 out?

If it’s higher than [1 + (run expectancy of none on 2 out)] then you’re wrong. But I dunno the numbers.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Looks like

1st and 3rd 1 out is roughly 1.15
None on 2 outs is about 0.1. Add that to the run scored, that’s 1.10

1.15 > 1.10

Therefore, no, a DP is not optimal in that situation

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course the numbers matter

EV (expected value) is what it’s all about. You’re using some bizarre hindsight/results-based analysis

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

He said "every single time"

and bizarre things happen a lot in baseball.

by Hipster Doofus on Jan 20, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Would you rather have a run expectancy of 1.15 or 1.10

I’ll wait

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

But it's not quite that straightforward

You’re comparing the initial state (1st, 3rd, 1 out) to the outcome after the DP. But you’d also have to compare to the outcome after the K.

Seems that’s something like the EV of 1st and 3rd, 2 outs, plus the chance the run scores during the K on a WP or PB.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 20, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Never mind on that

I read your situation wrong. You’re correct.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jan 20, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions  

the EV is higher. therefore they are better.

thats like saying ice cream is worse than nukes because i created a hypo where when a nuke went off i was hiding in a bomb shelter and met the love of my life and i never met the love of my life while eating ice cream.

by rglass44 on Jan 20, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Yea, that'll be enough of that

Besides, I don’t want to steal another forum’s slogan

by Jason Collette on Jan 20, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

what are you alluding to Jason?

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 20, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

the person I replied to

People can do a good job of making themselves look foolish (as I prove hourly/daily/weekly), so let them.

by Jason Collette on Jan 20, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sorry everyone

All I wanted to say really was that I would rather see the batter hit the ball than K. That’s all, and it got out of hand.

I know I don’t have the statistical knowledge that you guys have, but I love the game nonetheless, and if you all think I’m an idiot than that’s fine. I’ve been a bigger idiot in other aspects of my life and will continue to be an idiot in still other aspects.

I guess this is the reason I don’t post much. But I enjoy reading the articles here, and I have a good time on the GDT’s with you all.

We’re all here for one thing, and that’s to root for the Rays, and that’s what I’m going to do.

I’ll see you at the games. I’ll be the one rooting for the double play.

by Hipster Doofus on Jan 20, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Cracked me up.
I’ll be the one rooting for the double play.

by Whelk on Jan 20, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Strikeouts

If strikeout totals for hitters are irrelevant, then why do we consider it important for our pitchers to have good strikeout totals?

by cocanat on Jan 20, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

It wasn't your post

but if you scroll up a little you’ll see that my original contribution? to the thread was to argue with a poster who said a strikeout is no worse than any other out. If that is true, then, conversely, our pitchers’ strikeouts must be equally unimportant.

by cocanat on Jan 20, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Because a strikeout = 0% reach base (ignoring wild pitches for now)

Ball in play = roughly 30% reach base. Strikeouts keep players off base, which is obviously good.

For hitters, well, let’s say Carlos Pena said “I’m going to make more contact.” So he shortens his swing. He’s probably going to be a less productive overall hitter because while his average may go up a bit, his power will crash.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

i think the difference is due primarily to two things:

1. in theory, pretty much all BIP by pitchers are treated the same, whereas hitters have more control over BIP. therefore, a pitcher is rewarded more for striking a guy out than a hitter is hurt because all BIP are not equal for a hitter.
2. this feeds in to a second point. high-k hitters generally hit for more power and walk more than low-k hitters. this isnt the case for pitchers. los Ks a lot more than kotch, but he still makes about the same amount of outs per PA (actually less over their career). pitchers that K a lot of guys generally get more outs per PA than guys that dont.

does that make sense?

by rglass44 on Jan 20, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

From this aticle:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-strikeouts090909

Some high-scoring teams strike out a lot, and some low-scoring teams don’t, and vice versa. The most productive team of the past decade, the 1999 Indians, scored 6.23 runs per game even though they struck out 1,099 times, the ninth most in baseball that year – and 92nd most of the 300 teams in the study.

The same rule does not apply to pitchers, for whom strikeouts are often the best-case scenario. The correlation between strikeouts per nine innings and earned-run average from 1999 to 2008 was .459, not as strong as that of walks per nine to ERA (.573) and strikeout-to-walk ratio to ERA (.668) – and not all that strong, period – but significantly more so than with hitters.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

two outs are worse than one out every single time

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 20, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

No. (Subject to change after season)

WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now

Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw

by SRQman on Jan 20, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

missing balf...my only complaint

@thekidpow
Calm, collected, German.

by PlayOnWords on Jan 20, 2012 12:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

All right, so

C – Jose Molina
C – Jose Lobaton
1B – Carlos Pena
2B – Ben Zobrist
2B/SS – Sean Rodriguez
SS – Reid Brignac
3B – Evan Longoria
LF – Desmond Jennings
CF – B.J. Upton
RF – Matt Joyce
OF – Sam Fuld
DH – Luke Scott

That’s 12 guys, leaving a utility spot for EJ, Rhymes, or Canzler.

SP – David Price
SP – James Shields
SP – Matt Moore
SP – Jeremy Hellickson
SP – Wade Davis

RP – Kyle Farnsworth
RP – Joel Peralta
RP – Burke Badenhop
RP – Jake McGee
RP – Brandon Gomes
RP – J.P. Howell
RP – Jeff Niemann (it’s real to me)

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 12:21 PM EST reply actions  

I think this is close

I suspect one of Davis/Niemann is traded, which leaves that last spot for Rodney (whom you’ve forgotten).

i also think Guyer is plainly in the mix for the utility spot (and indeed, would be the favorite with this lefty-heavy lineup).

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Guyer could also beat out Fuld for the OF reserve spot

He might fit the roster better as a caddy to Joyce/Scott.

by Barnacles on Jan 20, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

no one really knows

He’s played 10, 19, and 12 games there with the Orioles over the past 3 seasons with mostly below-average UZR numbers (not that those mean anything in that sample size). I’ve watched him there, and he looks fine at it.

Also: no chance Fuld isn’t on the roster; he’s out of options and is basically the guy to pinch-hit for Molina, S-Rod, or Lobaton versus right-handed relievers.

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with Niemann/Davis being traded ...

… and I also think that the Rays should give the last spot (in the lineup) to Guyer or Canzler as they need a RH-hitter. I don’t see Sam Fuld getting lots of AB’s with Joyce not getting lots of PA’s at DH/1B.
Lineup vs. L:
1 Jennings
2 Upton
3 Zobrist
4 Longo
5 Scott
6 Rodriguez (SS)
7 Pena
8 Guyer/Canzler … if non of these two is on the 25, this spot goes to Joyce regularly, Fuld (not good against LHP) or E. Johnson. I prefer Guyer/Canzler, especially as Pena and Scott are much better against RHP.
9 Molina/Lobaton

by BurGi on Jan 20, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

That's right ...

… I’d just let the 1-4 spots in the lineup the same against both, RH and LHP. They are more comfortable then. The best would be to put Rodriguez or Scott at 5 against LHP then.

by BurGi on Jan 20, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Hopefully trade for catcher

But I think a mid season trade is more likely right now

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Trade BJ

Move Desmond to center and platoon Fuld/Guyer 50/50. Thats a lot of money in BJ for something that we can receive booty for and have a platoon that could replace the production.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

youre getting 55+ xbh from fuyer?

@thekidpow
Calm, collected, German.

by PlayOnWords on Jan 20, 2012 12:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Trade him for what?

Reliever? Young catcher? Shortstop?

by Travis Lee on Jan 20, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure, but for 2012 I am happy with how things worked out

I think BJ’s value TO THIS TEAM is very overrated

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

Niemann/Davis needs to be traded for a catcher before Upton is traded at all—our needs are being filled weekly

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Sure one those two should be traded as well.

The marginal value of BJ is not worth $7 million over what we have in house. Its simply not.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

but BJ is a team leader...

what about the clubhouse chemistry that is disturbed when you trade a veteran like BJ?

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jan 20, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh noes, out players might be less lazy

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 20, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think the market is there

I would support trading BJ to, say, Kansas City for Wil Myers, but that deal is pretty obviously not available. Right now the team that most aggressively wants a CF is the Nationals and — among players they’re willing to trade — there isn’t anyone the Rays should want.

Keep the band together, go all-in, win 100 games.

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

How do you figure?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Meant it as more of a Q....

but with how much Carl was making, and the position that he was playing, is it possible that BJ now is more valuable to the Rays than CC was? *(not having the advantage of knowing what they are going to do in their last season)

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jan 20, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

7.6 WAR in left frickin field? Plus Guerreri and Goeddel with the comp picks?

I’m going to say that would be tough to beat for 10 Mill

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Wasn't that his question?

Also there wasn’t the tailor made replacement.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Shouder surgery

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, but the team only gets one positiional adjustment

You can’t have tow guys playing center. Deezy will be an excellent CF. We have excellent defensive LFers. Offensive Fuld/Guyer isn’t mcuh different than BJ.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 20, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I disagree with ZiPs amigo

I bet Zips has overrated BJ for each of the last 4 years. And its only considering offense. IN a well=platooned split both FUld and GUyer are understated in my opinion.

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 21, 2012 8:26 AM EST up reply actions  

BJ's ZIPs this year is lower than his wOBA of the last 2 years.

i get that you dont value BJ properly, it’s fine, but i cant imagine hed be worse than the last 2 years in his age 27 season in a contract year.

i mentioned the platoon issue. fuld/guyer’s gains as a platoon would be offset by the ability to platoon joyce/jennings/upton when appropriate. also, what about injury to an of?

by rglass44 on Jan 21, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Zips has Beejer with a .331 wOBA including stolen bases

I expect him to hit better than that

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

yup yup

one freezo’s many agendas is at work here.

by rglass44 on Jan 25, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

No...

I was talking about going into the season. Are you arguing for the Rays saving the 7 million dollars?

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Jan 20, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Please let that last spot be Canzler (or Guyer)

No need to keep another MIF with Zob and Sean Rods flexibility.

by BJ the Bossman on Jan 20, 2012 12:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm thinking it's Guyer

but Canzler is pretty athletic and moves pretty well for a big dude

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

This.

And he was 25 last year. Johnson was much older.

by mr. maniac on Jan 20, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't care which one it is

Personally, I think we should give Canzler a shot. But Guyer should definitely be on the opening day roster. Even at the expense of Fuld. But all in all, I never want to see Elliot get another Major League AB

by BJ the Bossman on Jan 20, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Neimann

will be in the rotation over davis. Really broke out in 2nd half last year. If he’s healthy, he’ll be the starter.

by joaker5 on Jan 20, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes

Our lineup has so much power potential now, great to see Carlos back. Look forward to Pena extending his Rays all time HR total, only matter of time till Longo catches him

by tdwp56 on Jan 20, 2012 12:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Pena had an incredible 140 wRC+ against righties last year.

53 against lefties. Find this guy a platoon partner, and we have a 4 WAR 1B.

by mr. maniac on Jan 20, 2012 12:29 PM EST reply actions  

But.....who?

Guyer, Canzler, or do we just go with 2 infielders on the bench? Maybe, if we traded Davis, we could get another catcher plus that RH guy

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Sounds good to me-- though we are still stuck with Niem/Davis

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

now Rays trade one of Niemann/Davis for the future

without having to worry at all about working in components for improving the 2012 team. Opens up a wider range of trade possibilities.

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

My smile is bigger.

My wife’s bigger yet.

RIP OTTOTD

by DeadeyeRR on Jan 20, 2012 12:30 PM EST reply actions  

AWESOME

Yes, I really wanted him.

And no, Mr. Sternfan, no lineups from this broken sole.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 12:33 PM EST reply actions  

LoL

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

ok you got me

rec’d

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

i hate you

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 20, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Cuz Pena made like 10 or 11, right?

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

.

JonHeymanCBS Jon Heyman

hear #indians tried hard for pena. carlos wanted to go back to rays. it wasnt about $. (nobody goes to tampa for $)

by Ben Tumbling on Jan 20, 2012 12:37 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I assumed we had that advantage

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

This is horse crap

when they say it’s not about the money, it’s about the money. See Coco crisp

RIP OTTOTD

by DeadeyeRR on Jan 20, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Best bat the Rays could get vs RHP

Excellent clubhouse guy, excellent defense. Hanigan is still my target from Reds. Thump has definitely returned to Rays lineup.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 20, 2012 12:38 PM EST reply actions  

Who for Hanigan?

They DO NOT want/need another RH starter

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Drinking the Kool-Aid

Players love Tampa’s culture and will take less to be here. No wonder other teams dislike the Rays.

Believe in the Fuld

by RayJzone on Jan 20, 2012 12:42 PM EST reply actions  

I would assume he didn't mind take less for another reason

That being the Cubs still owe him 5 million that they back loaded to this season so 12.25 for Los.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 12:44 PM EST reply actions  

What's he being paid?

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I'd rather see us make a trade at the deadline than this

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Heater'd (via Eminence Front)
Teabagger288 Jan 20, 2012 12:29 PM
I wouldn’t worry about it. After he hits .199 in April, Maddumb will bench his lazy ●●● and put U.S. American Luke Scott at 1B where he belongs.

by Jason Collette on Jan 20, 2012 12:47 PM EST reply actions  

Amen
Wonder why Carlos Pena has never managed to impress well enough for one team to keep him under contract? This guy’s played for more teams than Carter has liver pills…
Damon not re-signed. No apparent interest in Kotchman. Luke Scott. “In deep” with Pena………….

I’m not thrilled with this Hot Stove League season so far.
I’m with you Jim. Get rid of a known entity in Damon for a guy whose health is suspect, among other things. No interest in Kotchman who only did way more than was reasonably expected. Of course we don’t know demands but it seems we could have had Johnny back for scott’s pay and if we’re near 10 for Pena it seems Kotch would be what? 3? I can see bad things happening fast this year. What if BJ doesn’t have that “contract season”? What if Desmond’s sophomore season looks very futile? We’re counting on Joyce to ‘finally’ break out or Guyer? Still no production from the Catcher.

by Hatfield on Jan 20, 2012 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

35 million just wont cut it anymore

Guy needs to raise to play hard!

Alex Rodriguez suggested that various Yankees should assume designated hitter duties from game to game.
“You want the DH spot to be one that’s kind of a revolving door,” he told ESPN Deportes

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

Next move: trade Niemann for Matt Adams

Next move: sign Hellickson and Joyce

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I like it

also: long-term deal for Price

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

The obvious move now is SP for young C

AF never does the obvious move. Who knows what he has planned.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 12:55 PM EST reply actions  

Right

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 1:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

For Davis plus someone plus someone else, sure

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 12:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

or even brandon allen

I’m just not a huge fan of RH Kevin Witt

by Dbullsfan on Jan 20, 2012 1:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Too many lefties in the middle of the order? I'll try to mix it up a bit

Vs. RH starters

Jennings
Zobrist
Longoria
Pena
Joyce
Upton
Scott

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 1:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Upton is staying in that 2 hole unless he really bombs

He took off when Joe put him #2 last year.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

THIS

plus the speed of Jennings and Upton will put a lot of pressure on opposing Ds.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 20, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Thats true-- as long as BJ can hold up vs righties, it's fine with me

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 1:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I don't see him lasting vs. righties

Vs. lefties, sure.

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 1:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I like a Jennings-Upton-Zobrist-Longoria-Pena top 5 lineup…but then you have 3 straight lefties in Pena-Joyce-Scott.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 20, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Jennings-Upton-Longoria-Pena-Zobrist-Joyce-Scott

I think that’s how I’d have it set vs righties.

by jtmorgan on Jan 20, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions  

love it

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, that does sound better

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 1:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

That's why I hope to see Guyer/Canzler on the 25:

Pena is not good against lefties. He should hit 5th against RHP and 7th/8th against LHP.

Jennings – Upton – Zobrist – Longoria – Scott – Rodriguez – Guyer – Pena – Molina/Lobaton

by BurGi on Jan 20, 2012 1:41 PM EST up reply actions  

...

and who DH’s then? Fuld? Joyce? No good bats against LHP available! But I’d bench him in some games against LHP as well!

by BurGi on Jan 20, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Happy and sad at the same time

On one hand, smile % goes through the roof

On the other hand, less Landlord.

Use the force, Lueke

by nomoredevil on Jan 20, 2012 1:16 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

How do they keep doing this by the way?

They are always so quiet. We were never said to of liked Scott, then he was ours. We weren’t interested in Pena according to reports from last night and he’s our. How are the Rays soooo quiet all the time?

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:16 PM EST reply actions  

HA...

nevermind. Too good a day to waste it busting your chops

Use the force, Lueke

by nomoredevil on Jan 20, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Just think how good our lineup is now

And it could get even better if we trade Niemann/Davis. Just wow—great job Friedman

This meme definitely has a shelf life to it

by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions

So do you.

BOOM. ROASTED!

by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag

by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 20, 2012 1:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

take a step back and look at who Rays have added

3 potential bullpen arms, 2 hitters…and still one more move yet to be done. Excellent offseason.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 20, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

He promised to add "bats", we all assumed he meant power

And he didn’t lie.

Time to trade Niemann or Davis but awesome deal and special thanks to the Cubs, Pena might of signed for less since he’s already getting 5 million from you guys this year!

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

this is the greatest of things.

On the subway today, a man came up to me to start a conversation. He made small talk, a lonely man talking about the weather and other things. I tried to be pleasant and accommodating, but my head hurt from his banality. I almost didn't notice it had happened, but I suddenly threw up all over him. He was not pleased, and I couldn't stop laughing.

by Thaddeus? on Jan 20, 2012 1:21 PM EST reply actions  

long time no see!

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 20, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

okay!

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions  

CHOATE

On the subway today, a man came up to me to start a conversation. He made small talk, a lonely man talking about the weather and other things. I tried to be pleasant and accommodating, but my head hurt from his banality. I almost didn't notice it had happened, but I suddenly threw up all over him. He was not pleased, and I couldn't stop laughing.

by Thaddeus? on Jan 20, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Marlins RP

Man, we gotta lose another low level minor league C?

Alright, you better do well, Choate.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions  

farnsworth, peralta, rodney, gomes, mcgee, howell, badenhop…bullpen appears full…who gets cut out if adding Balfour?

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 20, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

for gods sake, rodney

And stop getting wasted and signing guys, Andrew.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions  

understandable but unrealistic

but when they just signed him, he will be in the bullpen whether we like it or not.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 20, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Opening day Lineup predictions?

I like
DJ
BJ
Longlorious
Scott
Zobrist
Joyce
Pena
SRod
Fat Boy

by TLane on Jan 20, 2012 1:26 PM EST reply actions  

We should see Sabathia barring injury.

And all our catchers are righties……

I guess it would be Molina then, might as well use the new guy.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

tweak

vs. R: LF Jennings / CF Upton / 3B Longo / 1B Pena / 2B Zobrist / RF Joyce / DH Scott / C Lobaton / SS Brignac
vs. L: LF Jennings / CF Upton / 3B Longo / 2B Zobrist / SS S-Rod / 1B Scott / DH Joyce / RF Guyer / C Molina

…not bad.

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 20, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions  

or hank blalock.

On the subway today, a man came up to me to start a conversation. He made small talk, a lonely man talking about the weather and other things. I tried to be pleasant and accommodating, but my head hurt from his banality. I almost didn't notice it had happened, but I suddenly threw up all over him. He was not pleased, and I couldn't stop laughing.

by Thaddeus? on Jan 20, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

or pat burrell.

On the subway today, a man came up to me to start a conversation. He made small talk, a lonely man talking about the weather and other things. I tried to be pleasant and accommodating, but my head hurt from his banality. I almost didn't notice it had happened, but I suddenly threw up all over him. He was not pleased, and I couldn't stop laughing.

by Thaddeus? on Jan 20, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

or....dewan brazelton?

On the subway today, a man came up to me to start a conversation. He made small talk, a lonely man talking about the weather and other things. I tried to be pleasant and accommodating, but my head hurt from his banality. I almost didn't notice it had happened, but I suddenly threw up all over him. He was not pleased, and I couldn't stop laughing.

by Thaddeus? on Jan 20, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I forgot Pena's music

I’m a bad fan.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:40 PM EST reply actions  

Rays fans (not the ones here) are the best

January 2011: “Why aren’t they bringing Pena back?!”
January 2012: “Pena? Come on, why aren’t they bringing Kotchman back?!”

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 1:46 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

All of them keep using AVG

because Pena is better every where else. Kotch starts getting less lucky with those singles up the middle and he will be useless at the plate again.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

My guess: Pena will start 135+ games

If he is healthy and productive Maddon will park Pena at 1b nearly every game he can this year.

There will be no platoon at 1b during the 2012 season.

Will Carlos get a day off against a Romero/CC/Lester etc..sure but not necessarily every time.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 20, 2012 1:47 PM EST reply actions  

He doesn't seem to like to platoon 1B

That’s like the one position he just picks a starter and lets him play every day (well and Evan, obviously)

We let Dan Johnson try to hit lefties for like 2 weeks last year and then Kotchman was almost never on the bench.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions  

They better not do this, or they are stupid.

It is the difference between 2 WAR and 4 WAR. Pena kills the team when he players against lefties.

If Pena and a RHH platoon, the Rays have 4 WAR from 1B. If Pena plays full-time, the Rays get 2 WAR.

by mr. maniac on Jan 20, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

What percentage of pitchers are lefties?

It is more than one seventh. It is close to two sevenths, right?

by mr. maniac on Jan 20, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

it was 30% of al games were started by lefties. with 668 PAs by our 1Blast year, that's right at 200 pas.

so there would need to be a .114 difference in wOBA over those 200 PAs for it to be worth 2 wins (i.e. if Pena is a .300 wOBA guy, lower than his 3-year average against LHP, the replacement would have to have a .413 wOBA). a .356 wOBA would produce 1 win difference.

by rglass44 on Jan 20, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Pena was a .266 wOBA guy last year.

That three year number includes 2009, something he probably won’t repeat.

If we get a .380 wOBA guy against lefties, we get 4 WAR.I would guess we will get a .375 wOBA against righties from Pena, so that will be pretty sick.

by mr. maniac on Jan 20, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions  

He has been trending downwards.

I’d still like a lefty masher either way. I don’t want a .300 wOBA against lefties at 1B because that is negative value. We can get some stinking MIF to hit lefties and put Briggy in Durham.

by mr. maniac on Jan 20, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions  

He was trending downward in taht regard in 04 to.

I’ve never seen anything about players losing there ability to hit same-handed pitching faster than their ability to hit the other side. generally, there’s a skill denigration, so the breaking point to platooning them changes. but he hit RHs a hell of a lot better last year than he did in 2010, so is he improving there?

by rglass44 on Jan 20, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

You have a point.

You still can’t argue that the team isn’t better with a lefty masher at 1B platooning with Pena.

by mr. maniac on Jan 20, 2012 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Next move

find a way to get Hundley from San Diego.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 20, 2012 1:48 PM EST reply actions  

It'd be possible if Grandal was ready

I think they will keep him for now.

I like Hanigan, another great defender but he can actually hit.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions  

He just signed a 3 year, $4 million deal with the Reds

I don’t see that as a likely sign and trade. I’d love to have him, but doubt it happens.

by Travis Lee on Jan 20, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, he's probably a lot more fun to chat with than Hickey
James Shields on Pena returning to #Rays: "I’m excited. He’s awesome. I’m glad to have him back.’’

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, not sure where Rodney fit in

But AF has done very well again. He’s not done yet though. Still gotta think Davis or Niemann will be traded. A full bullpen and 6 starters right now, I don’t think he signed Moore long term to send him back to Durham.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Thought process

"That can’t be right"
"Google ‘Sergio Romo ref’"
"holy crap that’s right"

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 20, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

The Rays all being so excited about Pena is doing 2 things

Making Los smile even more and making Kotch cry.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 2:23 PM EST reply actions  

It's back

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 2:27 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Are you a fan of Secondary Average?

Not a perfect stat, but Pena had the 4th best SecA in baseball last season at .442 last year behind Joey Bats, Granderson, and Fielder.

For the record, Kotchman had a .212 SecA last season…and Delmon Young was .175

by Jason Collette on Jan 20, 2012 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

Well, it sounds like good company to be in

So I’m a fan of it.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

good article on it

http://walksaber.blogspot.com/2010/05/why-i-like-secondary-average.html

So the usefulness of SEC as a gauge is largely tied to the degree to which batting average is used as the starting point for player comparisons. If you are a sabermetrician, or even a user of OPS, then you don’t need secondary average; in all likelihood you hardly even look at batting average, which along with the meaningless units of SEC makes an opinion on the statistic like the one I quoted from Colin perfectly understandable. However, if you want a relatively easy tool you might be able to explain to an uninitiated fan, or you like me have a personal bias for players who draw walks and hit for power, then secondary average is a fun, junk-ish stat to have at your disposal.

btw, really enjoy that blog as well

by Jason Collette on Jan 20, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Ouch to Casey

Someone was tweeting Price first about Pena and Price “absolutely loves it, he’s awesome”

Then they asked “how about Kotchman not coming back?” No answer.

Matt Moore. That is all.

by joeybw on Jan 20, 2012 2:35 PM EST reply actions  

Re: All the lineup discussions

Jennings really is a perfect leadoff hitter. Not only is he a huge steal threat but he also has minimal platoon splits and he had the best OBP of ANY returning Ray (even better than Longo). What a beast

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 20, 2012 8:08 PM EST reply actions  

and he did all of it after June 1st!

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 20, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

also, efficient basestealer.

why would anyone ever like him more than that baby, turncoat CC.

by rglass44 on Jan 21, 2012 1:33 AM EST up reply actions  

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