Is Sean Rodriguez on the Verge of a Breakout Season?

by MrNegative1 on Jan 21, 2012 10:00 AM EST

The Rays offseason has been spent upgrading the offense and reinforcing the bullpen but they still have several questions that remain unsettled in 2012 such as what will the middle infield look like and more specifically who will get the majority of playing time at shortstop? Recently I wrote a story about Reid Brignac and how 2012 would bring new hope. There was a poll attached to the story that asked the question "Who will be the Rays shortstop come opening day" (based on the poll answers the question should of been how will Joe Maddon handle shortstop in 2012). Of the 213 votes Reid Brignac received 66 votes (30%), Sean Rodriguez 61 votes (28%), and a platoon between Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac received 68 votes (31%).

The Rays have Ben Zobrist entrenched at 2b where he started 118 games in 2011 and Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac, Elliot Johnson, and Will Rhymes in competition for the starting shortstop and the utility infield role. Out of the remaining four players it would reason that only Sean Rodriguez is assured of a roster spot in 2012. Is it possible to make the argument that Rodriguez could handle being an everyday shortstop in 2012 and are there indications that Rodriguez could be in for a breakout year in 2012?

Although Rodriguez played in 59 games in 2008 and 12 in 2009 with the Angels I'll be looking at his 2010 and 2011 numbers with the Rays.

In 2010 in 378 PA Rodriguez hit .251/.308/.397 with an wOBA of.316 and in 2011 in 436 PA he hit .223/.323/.357 with an wOBA of .303. His BABIP in 2010 was .324 but was only .268 in 2011. His walk rate increased from 5.6% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2011 and he reduced his strikeout rate from 25.7% in 2010 to 20.0% in 2011.

Rodriguez has been very good at hitting left handed pitching. In 2010 in 136 PA he hit .292/.375/.442 with an wOBA of .360 and in 167 PA in 2011 he hit .273/.389/.475 with an wOBA of .377. His BABIP in 2010 vs LHP was .407 and in 2011 that dropped to .312. His BB% increased from 10.3% in 2010 to 12.0% in 2011 while his strikeout rate decreased from 27.2% in 2010 to 16.2% in 2011.

In 2011 a total of 70.5% of the Rays plate appearances came against right handed pitching which would seem to work against Rodriguez as the full time shortstop in 2012. He has struggled in his career in against right handed pitching. In 2010 in 242 PA he hit .229/.270/.372 with a wOBA of .283 and in 269 PA in 2011 he hit .192/.280/.286 a wOBA of .259. His BABIP in 2010 vs RHP was .280 and in 2011 that dropped to .240. His BB% increased from 2.9% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2011 and his K% decreased from 24.8% to 22.3%.

What we do know is that Rodriguez is a very versatile player. In the last two years he has started 118 games at 2b, 50 games at SS, 19 games at 3b, 8 games in the OF, and 5 games at 1b. We know that he can hit left handed pitching and we know that he struggles against right handed pitching. Is the increase in walk rate in each of the last two seasons and decrease in strikeout rate a sign that he is becoming a more patient hitter at the plate? Will this patience pay off in a breakout year at the plate in 2012?

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He doesn't need to have that much of an improvement against RHP in order to earn the SS job.

All that would be needed is around a .300 wOBA to go with his .360+ wOBA vs LHP and he would be a 2.5-3 WAR SS.

While I’m not optimistic about Brignac, if he could turn around to pre 2011 results and be the .310-.320 wOBA SS it will be hard for SRod to get the job.

by jtmorgan on Jan 21, 2012 10:15 AM EST reply actions

the key is getting on-base vs. rhp

Doesn’t necessary have to hit .270 v. them, but take some walks, lean into a pitch or two, and then do some things on the basepaths.

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by Tommy Rancel on Jan 21, 2012 10:20 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Yup.

by mr. maniac on Jan 21, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed.

I seem to remember a lot of hype about S-Rod’s power and speed when the Rays acquired him and even last off season. I wonder how Sean did on the first base line last year. You have to figure that if he really is speedy, he can run out infield singles, and that he’d have a higher BABIP than .240 against RHPs.

In 2009 in the Angel’s AAA, he flashed a 7.0 Spd according to Fangraphs. In 2010 with the Rays he had a score of 6.7 on the bases. Last year? 5.4 Spd! I know that score is about as accurate as batting average, but considering the league avg is about 5.0, something was wrong.

Also, I think he’s been leaning in enough, HBP 18 times last year :)

by d.russ on Jan 21, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions

If his late season improvements are actual improvements and not just SSS

I think he has a good shot of grabbing the lion’s share of PT (http://www.espnflorida.com/insider-sean-rodriguez-as-rays-2012-shortstop/)

That said, if Brignac wants to start popping XBH, and Rodriguez continues to improve on offense and defense, that works as well.

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by Tommy Rancel on Jan 21, 2012 10:17 AM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs

I, too, would prefer good problems of who to start at SS versus the crap pile that was offense from that position last year.

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by pudieron89 on Jan 21, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

And to be good offensive SS

We’re really only asking them to be average offensive players.

I might be on the Koolaid, but I think Rodriguez can be slightly above-avg with the stick and avg on D with Brignac above-avg defender and closer to avg at dish.

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by Tommy Rancel on Jan 21, 2012 11:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

i dunno. he was putrid last year against righties and has never shown any promise against them in the majors.

however the peripherals about patience that MR MrNegative1 has presented are promising, and you made a good point about just getting on base at a somewhat reasonable amount against them.

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 21, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

shameless self-promo

but in the link I put above, I broke it down a little bit further. Once he became an everyday player, his OBP vs RH improved quite a bit in a sss.

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by Tommy Rancel on Jan 21, 2012 11:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

short answer: no

But he probablydoesn’t need a breakout season to be the starting ss on this club. Just improve from ‘poor’ to ‘below average’ against RHP.

Still, I’d rather see Briggy rebound to 2010 form. Then we’d have a legit platoon.

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by nomoredevil on Jan 21, 2012 11:05 AM EST reply actions

I have always said...

It is far more difficult for a righty to get platooned than a lefty. The lefty gets consistent at bats while the righty plays once every 4 days. Tough to get in a groove. Hitters like repetition and seeing live pitching consistently. I believe SRod would do fine vs righties if given everyday AB’s…

by td32 on Jan 21, 2012 11:07 AM EST via mobile reply actions

If we do happen to get solid production from SS though this year's offense could be really productive.

by jtmorgan on Jan 21, 2012 11:17 AM EST reply actions

Don't think he improves against RH'ers unless he gets the full time job

And it may be his defense at SS that prevents him from that full time spot as much as his hitting versus RH’ers, IMO.

by budman3 on Jan 21, 2012 11:17 AM EST reply actions

This I can partly agree with, Budman3.

I think the only way Rodriguez is going to improve is with more playing time.

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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

It is not generally accepted here but the best opportunity for S-Rod to get that full time shot is at 2nd base.

IF the Rays could be assured of halfway decent production(and plus defense) from a full time SS, sliding Rodriguez to 2nd, moving Zobrist to RF and allowing Joyce to DH, provides them with their best defense everyday. S-Rod is every bit a GG’er at 2nd as Zobrist and Zobrist is the Rays best RF defensively(even over an unproven Guyer).

I think it would have been much easier to find a RH’ed DH platoon for Joyce if he still struggled against lefties but the Rays have made their choice with Scott.

by budman3 on Jan 21, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think Zobrist will ever be moved into RF as a long-term thing

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 21, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe Rodriguez can play RF then.

He seems to be able to play anywhere. Does he have a good arm for shortstop? Will it be good enough in RF? Just a crazy idea.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions

He may be able to play anywhere and maybe really well, if given the chance to become a full time player at one position,

I just don’t see it happening with the Rays because he is valued so much for his flexibility. Not a bad thing but it may be hurting his own personal development as a potential star in baseball.

by budman3 on Jan 21, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

I think he can do a Zobrist sort of deal.

Play every game, but not always at the same position. I think the main idea should be to get him a chance to play regularly versus righties, and I think he may improve. I don’t think his hitting will be stunted by bouncing around the field.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

Is it too late for him to learn how to switch hit?

That is the major difference between him and Zobrist at this point.

by budman3 on Jan 21, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sold on his defense at SS...

But in fairness to him, SS is difficult enough to play if it’s your fulltime position, but playing it part time is even more difficult. He is taking reps all over the field instead of focusing on the most demanding position. Regardless, if the Rays could get a league avg performance from SRod or Reid, they will be in a fantastic position.

by td32 on Jan 21, 2012 12:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

Typo in the second-last paragraph

He has struggled in his career in against “left” handed pitching.
I think you mean right handed pitching.

by catsondbs on Jan 21, 2012 11:22 AM EST reply actions

The most talented athlete on the team

From my observations the last two years I feel Rodriguez may be the best player/athlete on the team. He has a rocket for an arm, has an exceptional glove runs well and has the highest bat speed in the majors last year. If he can just start making more contact with pitches from right-handers he will be an all-star. I really believe this will be a breakout year for him and he will take us to the Series along with other contibutions.
ps Maddon has already said and I agree with him, that Sean is the best second baseman in the American league!!!! I’ll take him at second or short and be very happy.

by rayalan on Jan 21, 2012 12:39 PM EST reply actions

Link for the bat speed comment?

I know he had the ‘hardest hit hr’ in the majors last year, but that’s obviously one swing, I can’t find anything on batspeeds though (I don’t have any subscription stats services, so that may be why). Thanks.

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by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 21, 2012 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

only thing I find

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/top_sob.php

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by Jason Collette on Jan 21, 2012 8:26 PM EST up reply actions

Bat Speed.

I say a graphic on either MLB network or ESPN last year showing Rodriguez with 3 of the top 5 bat speed swings last year. I think the top one was at Toronto and I recall it was 122 mph.

The homerun was a lazer shot into the upper deck. Very little arc, just a rocket! It might have been 127 I don’t know.

by rayalan on Jan 22, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Sean also is extremely gritty

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 21, 2012 6:16 PM EST up reply actions

quick answer, no

by davidsmarch on Jan 21, 2012 1:34 PM EST reply actions

I think it is more likely Brignac breaks out as far as improvement over last season

I’ve never been a huge Srod fan and I hope I’m wrong but I don’t see him ever being more than a super utility guy.

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by Dbullsfan on Jan 21, 2012 2:34 PM EST reply actions

Looked a little deeper.

His K rate went down, his BB rate went up, his BABIP went down, and his hitting went down. Last year, Rodriguez had a crazy high IFFB% (19.8%). That is correct. A fifth of the time he put the ball in play, he his in field fly balls. That number was third worse in baseball last year, behing only Gordon Beckham and Chris Young. Can anyone explain whether this is fluky or what this shows?

Regarding the walks, the uptick is primarily due to less strikes being thrown. To his credit, he didn’t start swinging at more pitches outside the zone when they started throwing more of them out of the zone. His contact went up a slight bit. Other than that, I don’t see the BB/K rate as anything very encouraging.

by mr. maniac on Jan 21, 2012 2:44 PM EST reply actions

Is there any public Hit fx info?

by mr. maniac on Jan 21, 2012 2:44 PM EST up reply actions

No, it's exclusive for the most part

Mike Fast has had access to some of it, but it is a subscriber based thing done by places like BIS and a few others.

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by Jason Collette on Jan 21, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions

Just as a point of curiosity,

Any idea, that you can share, of how much those subscriptions cost for places like..let’s say.. bpro, to access?

"It was a little weird seeing Ashley running at me with a closed fist. That was a scary look."-Matt Moore

by CubFanRaysaddict on Jan 21, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

Besides getting full run, S-Rod needs to one thing to improve.

He has to lay off most outside pitches until pitchers stop throwing him there. Pitchers try to either pitch him way inside(18 HBP’s last year) or get him to swing and either miss away or hit weakly to RF or pop-up. As long as he cannot lay-off, pitchers will keep throwing him away and busting him in and up(both L’s and R’s). Even the lefties he hits, his hot zones are only middle in and down)Now if he were to go up looking to go the other way, which at times he seemed to try last year, he may have more success. But that may come at the expense of getting beat inner half, even with his fast bat speed.

That comes with PT and experience and may be a catch-22 in his present situation. Maddon did give him plenty of opportunities to hit against RH’ers last year(234 AB’s versus 139 against lefties) and he didn’t take advantage of it. He is very much like Joyce, in that the Rays would love for them to succeed as full time players. I’m just not sure how much patience(and opportunity) they will continue to be given.

by budman3 on Jan 21, 2012 3:46 PM EST reply actions