How should the bench be filled after signing Carlos Pena?
by jtmorgan on Jan 21, 2012 4:37 AM EST
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PrintAfter the announcement of the signing of Carlos Pena, I got to thinking about the potential platoon problems and how it leads to our bench being constructed in 2012. I decided to take the WAR Spreadsheet and split it up into different categories for each hitter facing a lefty or a righty with stats adjusted for their splits. Since our lineup against right-handed pitcher is pretty much set outside of the catcher position (I left it blank since I expect very little offensively and getting data points for the platoon will be difficult with Molina as the only 1 with much major league experience and that consists of 1500 PA over 10 years.) this is what our offense looks like as of now with only Sean Rodriguez and the backup catcher on our bench.
Screenshot - Spreadsheet of Rays Platoon Splits
As of right now Sean Rodriguez would take the platoon at shortstop, because it's the biggest gain at almost 2.5 WAR over 200 PA. I still put the numbers in the other spots Sean could start against lefties to compare other positions we could pick up a lefty masher to help fill out the bench.
I tried to project to the best of my abilities of the splits since there are some SSS issues specifically related to stats against lefties. But for the final numbers as the team stands the team average vs RHP is .350 and vs LHP is .345. This is a little surprising, but Evan Longoria and Ben Zobrist pick up the slack from Carlos Pena and Matt Joyce versus lefties.
This is where the biggest offensive gains can be found before we complete our roster for the 2012 season. What really got me thinking about this is my thinking Sam Fuld doesn't really fit into the current roster as it currently stands since Brandon Guyer would make a better option as a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder. I really am a fan of Sam Fuld, but just thinking about this from what's best for our the team with what looks like it could be the best shot to win the World Series.
Projected Bench:
C Jose Lobaton/Robinson Chirinos
UI Sean Rodriguez
OF Brandon Guyer
1 Right-Handed Bat/Sam Fuld
This leaves 1 spot that could be used to pick up a 1B/SS/OF that mashes lefties (could theoretically be Russ Canzler) in order to really beef up the lineup versus left-handed pitcher and would more than likely make this a team that is better versus lefties. They would also have a pretty lethal bench to pinch hit for late in the game when most relievers are right-handed of Matt Joyce and Carlos Pena.
Any questions or comments are greatly appreciated.
*Sorry about the spacing not working right now I'll try to fix it in the morning.
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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Gotta have Guyer as the 4th OF, and as of NOW Canzler
Fuld is odd man out, unfortunately, guy has major charisma and D, but with the lefty signings its curtains for him.
That's the conclusion I came up with.
Fuld is a great guy and there are teams that could really use what he can give. I Just don’t think he fits in with the Rays in 2012. Still wouldn’t surprise me to see him on the team though.
this is the Rays we're talking about
it’s gonna be Guyer since he has an option (or should, anyways)
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Exactly.
As much as Guyer is a better player overall compared to Fuld, the Rays are not going to potentially lose a player by DFA’ing Fuld to start the year when Guyer has options. The minor league depth is too valuable to the Rays.
he'll be the first one up in case of an injury.
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Put in a lefty mashing UTL player and take Brignac off the team. He has an option, right?
It only makes sense. He could back up S-rod and he platoons for Pena.
So basically SRod SS vs RHP and 1B vs LHP.
The Pena/SRod platoon is a 4WAR 1B which is nice. Unless we see SRod being more than a .275 wOBA vs righties I don’t know if it is necessarily the best move.
Obviously this all depends how Brignac’s swing looks in ST since even last year he was a better hitter vs RHP than SRod. With his defense I can see him making the team anyway as long as they think he’s not a complete liability at the plate.
Where do Brignac and Beckham play in 2012, then?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 9:19 AM EST up reply actions
Not that I'm advocating this scenario
But Briggy doesn’t have anything to prove at SS. If he is sent down, he can play anywhere defensively. The questions are with his bat.
Use the force, Lueke
i doubt he would go for it but...
Magglio Ordonez would be a perfect 4th OF/DH vs LHP. Scott could slide to 1B and mags could DH. His numbers vs LHP in his career are awesome. If can convince him to part time role, he’d be the perfect fit.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 9:02 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Mags would have been my choice to DH(if he proved healthy this spring).
But the Scott signing pretty much removes that option. He could still be a possibility but only if Scott is slow to come back and Mags is willing to take on a questionable role with the Rays for 2-3 million. If healthy this spring, he’s likely to get a better and more secure offer from another team, IMO.
With as much as Maddon rests his players
Mags could still get a good size role with the Rays. Not 500AB, but 300-400, definitely.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions
Can't we have both Guyer and Fuld on the bench?
This is all vs. lefties—Guyer gets a start every time.
Joyce sits, Guyer plays right, Scott DH’s and Pena plays 1st
Scott sits, Guyer plays right, Joyce DH’s and Pena plays 1st
Pena sits, Guyer in right, Joyce DH’s and Scott plays 1st
I don’t get how Fuld should be the odd man out—I think we can get along fine without a backup 1B.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
I just think he becomes redundant on this team.
I love him as a player, but just don’t feel he fits into what this team needs off the bench. At this point though I’d be surprised if Fuld wasn’t on the opening day roster.
I disagree on that,
Honestly, Fuld is probably the best pure bench guy the Rays have. He’s a great option for pinch running late in the game, and with Scott and Pena on the team, that becomes somewhat more important. Also, Fuld was particularly successful at pinch hitting last season, and we all know how good of a defensive OF he is. Fuld just seems like the type of player that Maddon would definitely want on his bench in the later parts of the game, because he can be used in any role.
by TBRaysfan009 on Jan 21, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Agree Completely
What the Rays bench needs is a bat who excels vs LHP and a potential PH late in games. Like I said above, I believe Magglio Ordonez is the perfect fit for that if healthy. He can get some corner OF duty and DH duty when Scott sits or plays 1B. Even with LHP at-bats, and some spot starts, he could get 300-400 AB quite easily. A $2 mil deal would be perfect, as he’s most likely not going to get a starting gig, so it’s either accept a part time deal or retire.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
This would give a bench of
Fuld, Ordonez, backup C, and Utility INF.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
I feel as if Rhymes can do all of these things while playing infield though.
Which seems to be more important given the makeup of this team.
doesn't have to be one or the other
Fuld, Rhymes, backup C, and ____. Doesn’t have to be another OF because Scott can play there as the season goes on and Zobrist can get some RF time in. Doesn’t have to be a 1B/3B backup either because S-Rod can play 3B and Scott can spend time at 1B. Positional flexibility is a major plus and will help the Rays shape their bench.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't mind it.
Like I said, Fuld can produce off the bench in some capacity, albeit not with homeruns. Since thats primarily what a bench player is for, thats not so bad.
by TBRaysfan009 on Jan 21, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
Fuld plays excellent defense and can play all 3 OF positions
PR abilities also good. He is a very good bench player.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Rhymes is going to spent a lot of time in North Carolina
unless a lot of people get hurt
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 21, 2012 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
2/3 of our starting OF is RHH. Fuld makes sense to spell them against righties.
Otherwise you are introducing sub-optimal lineups any time you wanna rest someone.
How often do you want to rest Upton and Jennings?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
That sounds a little better
but still kind of a lot.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
yeah. probs. bj has played over 150 like evry year. the turf worries me, though.
maybe cc’s just a lil bitch.
If there's no chance of resigning him
I don’t think the Rays should care how often they put him in the lineup.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
That sounds like a lot.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
I think the trade of Neimann/Davis will add the back-up 1st base/RH'ed DH/CO' OF'er type.
Either a ML player now or an almost ready prospect. I would look for a similar player at the catcher spot as well.
RH'ed DH/1B/OF'er type
Canzler says hello.
by Patrick Relano Kim on Jan 21, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure how high the Rays are on him though.
He’s been available to them for a few years now and he hasn’t gotten the chance yet. Just saying.
last year was his first with the team, so that's just wrong.
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
One for the suggestion box for the powers that be...
Would be curious to see a piece on Canzler and if he has the potential to break with the team on the bench and what his potential is. Just food for thought.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
My mistake. Just seems like he's been around a while.
And at soon to be 26, may just be a AAAA type guy.
Way too early
We didn’t even give him not even 10 PA. Yes, he’s soon to be 26 but he had best wRC+ in AAA last year. Since All star break, his slash line was pretty awesome .356 .421 .621 and he did not play in PCL.
by Patrick Relano Kim on Jan 21, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
and was very good vs LHP
Maybe he’s the platoon partner.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
but let's be honest, Durham is no pitchers park
Having said that I wouldn’t mind seeing him on the club and starting against tough lefties at 1B.
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
You're slapping a label on someone you know absolutely nothing about.
He’s a late bloomer. Had a breakout year at AA during his age 24 season that happened to be his sixth in the minors (meaning you can elect free agency).
Fact is he mashed his first full season at AA, not at an unreasonable age, then mashed his first full season at AAA. There’s an awful lot of things pointing towards Canzler being a legit hitter.
Yes, the CUbs were dumb for not protecting him after his 2010 season
I was all over this early, amirite rglass?
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Jan 21, 2012 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Why? He handled AAA wonderfully in his first go around
25 isn’t young, but he answered the call, THe team felt good enough to sign him last year, and I can’t imagine their expectations could have been any higher than the results he put up.
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
i feel like people are jumping off the canzler BW faster than the Titanic.
Amazing after the way this community embraced Leslie Anderson who had wayyyy bigger “???” in his profile.
Burnt by DanJo I suppose
Not the same situation, and even if it was, that doesn’t mean the results would be same.
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by FreeZorilla on Jan 21, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
exactly. id be fine if danjo was in aaa with us again next year. all he does is send this team to the playoffs.
weve never made it with out him. now THAT, my friends, is a statistic that means something.
we only have one guy that can/has played 1B/MI/OF and that is why yes
Elliot Johnson will be on the opening day roster.
Rodriguez?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Even Brignac has played OF
and is taking reps at 1b now.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 5:59 PM EST up reply actions
I was refering to that last roster spot
I know he isn’t the only one overall. I think with the last roster spot we are going to go with flexibility over 1 strength.
If the rays want to give themselves the best chance to succeed
I think guyer, canzler, sean/reid, chirinos/lobo is our best option. Pena really needs someone to platoon with against tough lhp and canzler seems like the best fit. If maddon feels comfortable with pena playing everyday, that last spot could go to fuld. I love the guy, I just think guyer makes more sense. Again if maddon wants joyce playing everyday, that could mean guyer playing everyday in durham and fuld on the bench.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 21, 2012 2:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I would not be surprised if either Guyer/Fuld/Canzler were involved in a package, along with Neimann/Davis to acquire a top prospect or two at positions of need.
Neimann/Davis, alone, should get the Rays a good to very good prospect. Adding an extra piece might bring even more.
My God April can't come soon enough...
I just want some baseball, and I think this may be the most excited I have ever been for Rays baseball… So many intriguing story lines… How will Moore do, can Helly become a more dominant pitcher, will Guyer get some PT, who will win out at SS, can Farnsy repeat his 2011 season, can Pena hit 30+ homers, will Shields regress, will Beej play big for a contract? Man, I can’t wait to see how those stories play out. Sorry if this is OT, I’m just giddy at the moment …
i really think folks are overstating the need to platoon Pena.
i do like the idea of canzler or guyer to have in case the baseball ops folks see something in in pena thats a cause for concern apart from some bad numbers in SSS, but im hesitant to lose any depth because of it. that just seems short-sighted.
Was Kotch platooned
or was DanJo platooned?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
I would say Kotch was platooned, since he got to face the hand he could actually hit
DanJo faced lefties because his splits, while bad against lefties, were less horrible #MagicofKotch
Use the force, Lueke
absolutely. it fell on deaf ears and was largely dismissed.
now we have a better lh 1b that brings the leather, but since he isnt blooping singles and hitting seeing-eye singles everyone wants to platoon him. put it this way, pena had more HRs last year than Kothcman has in the last 3 against LHP. he doesn’t get many PAs against lefties that dont end in one of the 3 true outcomes, so everyone is terrified over a .127 BABIP on about 50 balls in play. it’s silly.
I don't expect them to platoon Pena.
If they were trying to squeeze every win out of the team though, I think they should do it. They won’t though.
Um, I guess I'll take a crack out of it
I like Chirinos bat better but his release is awful and he’s another righty so I choose Lobaton because at least he can stand on the left side of the plate.
Brignac will be there and I don’t agree at all with people that think he’s Durham bound.
The final 2 are interesting but I think our 2 signings both being lefties just got Guyer a job, hopefully it didn’t get Ruggiano one instead…
Then it comes down to Fuld vs Johnson vs Rhymes vs Canzler vs ST invite and I don’t think think Fuld is going anywhere which could mean see ya, Elliot.
Matt Moore. That is all.
So, take your pick--I already have Lobaton, Brignac, and Fuld as locks.
Guys we already have: Rhymes, Guyer, Brignac, Canzler, E. Johnson. Am I missing someone?
Free agents (some we’ve been linked to, some are just ideas): X. Nady, Keppinger, Theriot, Rentaria, Betemit (though I hope not another LH bat), Pat Burrell (maybe too expensive for a bench player), C. Ross, Ordonez.
What do you think? I’m going with Guyer on the first list and Ordonez on the second.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
I don't see any reason to sign any of those players when Guyer could be on the roster.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 8:05 PM EST up reply actions
Better for Guyer if he is playing full time in Durham
Ready to step into a full time corner OF position in 2013 after BJ leaves (or sooner if traded)
I really don't know if that's true.
A transition to major league pitching may be best for him.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 21, 2012 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don't get that
What is Guyer going to learn in AAA? If there were some sort of way that 600 AAA plate appearances could get him to double his walk rate or something, I’d be for it, but that doesn’t happen.
So what else is there? Dude just hit .312 at AAA with speed and power. The next step is to see how he can hang in there against big-league pitching. That’s it.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 21, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Its just a baseball-sounding thing to say.
Like calling someone a AAAA player when you dont know who they are.
by Vin on Jan 21, 2012 9:35 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Nah, we all know players need their seasoning and spicing.
But when players I like off-of-the-1-PA-I-have-seen-them come along, they are fully prepared for the majors leagues.
This is the part of baseball I hate. I know I’ll recieve a lot a crap for this, but I hate all the traditional stuff like that.
a vote for Fuld
The bench needs a pinch-hitter for Molina/Lobaton and Sean Rodriguez when opponents bring in a right-handed reliever late. Fuld can (and will) be a useful player off the bench.
I think it comes down to who needs a platoon more
Pena or Joyce
That could determine whether they carry guyer or canzler
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 21, 2012 9:40 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Pena
Joyce is slowly learning to hit left-handers and deserves a shot; Pena’s been getting worse against them over the years.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 21, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Just a thought,
what about having Guyer work out at 1st during Spring Training? That could potentially allow to back up Pena, Scott or Joyce on any given day against lefties, and wouldn’t leave the bench lacking in versatility by carrying two OF. i would say the bench would be Molina, Brignac, Fuld, and Guyer, which isn’t too shabby.
Guyer is really, really, really good in 1B
Would be better to have Joyce work out there, I’d think.
Agree with you on the bench.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 21, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
How about we trade for Scutaro?
Brignac becomes the new IF reserve. SRod goes into a platoon with either Joyce or Pena depending on Maddon’s mood.
I know Denver probably won’t want to give him up but they got him for a bag of balls essentially.
We should trade for the other SS on the Rockies
by Snarfalicious on Jan 21, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Scutaro and Tim Wheeler
..for Niemann and De la rosa. Make it happen!!
by Patrick Relano Kim on Jan 21, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
My idea was more around what an optimal team roster would be.
I do agree Sam Fuld will be on the opening day roster, but still believe there could be better options for the team. Granted they would be small and through out the season even with an ideal platoon situation there will be times when it doesn’t work out balanced through the 162 game grind.
However I really feel good about our offense going into the 2012 season and feel it could be our best yet. Last year our biggest weakness was hitting RHP and we clearly upgraded that this offseason without hurting hitting LHP too much. Last season we had a .314 wOBA vs RHP and a .329 wOBA vs LHP just for a comparison.
I think it would be nice to have a 2nd platoon besides a Brignac/SRod platoon, if that’s our SS.
Neimann and E. Johnson for Blanks and Austin Hedges makes too much sense.
If the Rays can add Pena and his power and KO’s, what’s another potential slugger? A RH’ed bat that can back -up 1st base, play DH and let Pena/Scott sit, get some PT in LF on occasion. Plays a decent enough bag, take a risk he finally figures out hitting, and what’s another 30% KO rate? Johnson makes it easier to move Bartlett/Hudson when possible. Hedges gets a chance to catch in a couple of years. Both Blanks and Hedges are blocked in SD.
Than just sign Ronnie Paulino to platoon with Molina for a year . He rakes against lefties(while Molina hits better versus Righties) and plays solid defense.
Now if you really want to make it interesting try to get Nick Hundley in the deal.
Get your starting catcher for the next 3 seasons(at 2 million in 2012 before two arby years). It will cost a decent prospect back to the Padres along with Neimann but he’s worth it. Let John Baker catch for them and they can sign Paulino.
Hundley is the best target
Davis for Hundley sounds awesome to me. Should work for Padres, too. Maybe include Lobaton for C depth. Despite trading Latos, a off-season of Grandal, Alonso, and Davis is a pretty good haul for retooling.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 22, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think more pieces would have to be added, probably on both sides.
Hundley’s already in arb, making $2 million this season, and aside from 2011, he’s not all that good. He’s acceptable, but I’d like to even it out a little. Not sure what with, though.
Eh, he’s good on defense. Maybe it’s even. I don’t know.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
What's impressive about Hundley though is he has improved his numbers across the board every single year for the past four
That’s offense and defense. You rarely see that in a catcher. The concern with him is his health, as he hasn’t been able to play an entire season but that could actually help the Rays in trade value.
Really.
He seems to be amazingly consistent to me for the 3 prior to 2011. I must be looking at it wrong.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Small but steady incremental gains each year...
Power, XBH’s, BA. Slug, OPS, WAR, wOBA
If they traded for Blanks, or any 1B right now,
he would most likely get sent to AAA to get full time AB’s right? I know he hit very well in AAA last year, but that was the PCL and he also had a high BABIP.
No matter how much they are hyped, my teams always find a way to disappoint.
by thedudeofdudes on Jan 22, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
That depends.
If they are really looking for a guy to play 2-3 times a week and come off the bench late in games as a PH’er, it would most likely be a veteran type guy who can handle that role. Which is why a guy like Canzler/Guyer makes less sense as inexperienced players aren’t always comfortable in that role(and tends to hurt their development), IMO.
I would more anticipate a young 1st baseman be acquired for a SP that could spend another year in AAA with 2013 in mind. But a veteran back-up 1st baseman/DH(a RH’ed hitter) seems to be still be in order.
If they want to make a move for a 1B of the future with huge upside it ought to be Yelich...
The only question is what the Marlins would realistically want to move Yelich, who appears to be a star in the making.
by Snarfalicious on Jan 22, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
I see Yelich as more of an OF
The scouting reports I’ve read on him indicate that he will be more of a corner OF type.
The guy can flat-out rake though. I can’t see any reason why the Marlins would want to move him either.
"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon
Yeah he's definitely a capable COF right now...
He was a 1B coming out of high school, but the guy does have some unreal athleticism given his frame. I don’t think it would matter if you put him at a COF spot or 1B, I think he would be fine at either position.
by Snarfalicious on Jan 22, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
What I've read so far has been some nice dialogue so I figured I'd throw my thoughts out there
http://theraysway.com/articles/projecting-the-rays-2012-lineup
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