1st Projected Standings Out..
84-78, again now 85-77
Also, has Rays with lowest runs scored total in the East and 4th lowest in the league. Of note, the Rangers are going to allow the least amount of runs in the AL this season?
4 months ago
Jason Collette
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Really hard to believe
Bringing back Los and Scott. Jennings a full-time player and Matt Moore in the rotation. There is no position that was downgraded this off-season and 4 serious upgrades.
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by FreeZorilla on Jan 21, 2012 9:26 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
Clay isn't taking defense into account?
I don’t know, the numbers don’t seem to add up.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 21, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't look at the link, but to project team records without factoring defense seems like a waste of time
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by FreeZorilla on Jan 21, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
This was my question and it would certainly account for the extremely optimistic projection for Boston
Along with Bard and Aceves’s projections, as well.
It probably just needs some tweaking – usually it just takes some time to dial it in.
As I said below to Whelk, I think defense was taken into account if you look at BABIP for pitchers
Unless that’s a park adjustment.
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 22, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
further convinced no one will ever pick the rays
Rays always beat out those predictions so let’s make it another year. We can start calling it the “rays exception” whenever a team is underrated in the rankings.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 21, 2012 9:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
well, if the Rays give 500 plate appearances to Elliot Johnson
and play Ben Zobrist at 1B, and send Carlos Pena off to the vast granola mines of the far side of the moon, and defense doesn’t matter, then maybe.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 21, 2012 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
this has Ben Zobrist at 1B
and Elliot Johnson as the everyday 2B
I'd rather it be too negative than too positive
Not sure about the Tampa Bay Yankees part of it though.
Clay Davenport
Is clueless if he thinks the Red Sox are going to win 98 games and we are only going to win 84.
How the heck did he generate these?
They are so random. For example, he has Gomes, Brignac, and Lobaton doing well while making everyone else (literally everyone) much worse.
Even if the projections weren't awful
I don’t see the point in even doing them with so many free agents still out there. It’s just a waste of time.
Use the force, Lueke
84-78...
not really even worth giving a look. We know given who we’ve got we should be much better than this. Who cares about this guys projections..
Yeah.
I’m not ruling out the possibility the Rays only win 84 games. However, and projection system that projects them having that total obviously has issues.
Either he failed math or doesn't know anything about baseball
Because none of those numbers make sense.
He projects Darvish to be on the level of like Halladay, Verlander, Lee, and all the other Cy winners of recent years.
Hell the CWS have a similar record even though the “projected” stats are way worse when the Rays match up with that of all the division winners(90+W).
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
ALC is a lot different from ALE
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
The Red Sox havn't given up
662 runs or less since 2007, and it really hasn’t been close. The last three years they have exceeded 700 runs, and any year in the past 10 years that has been close to 650 runs has resulted in a world series win.
Giving up so few runs in Fenway is quite an accomplishment, and looking at history you have to have a pretty historic rotation to accomplish something like that, not a rotation that has Daniel “Freakin” Bard starting for the first time since 2008(at any level).
He also has Bard playing out of his mind, more innings then Aceves and Matsuzaka, more wins and nearly same innings as Buchholz. Lester pitching better than Beckett, and Beckett having a decent year at that.
Could this happen? Sure, it’s baseball, but I have a hard time taking this ranking seriously when it predicts something this crazy. That said, it is early, and who knows the Red Sox might sign Oswalt or someone who can step in and help the rotation that much.
Pitchers total W/L: 85-77; his porjections for team W/L: 84 -78
Consistency must not be his thing either.
Close Wins
I think he only projects runs for and runs against which equal wins, I don’t think it accounts for 1 run wins that happen in late innings. The Rays always excel at this and that is what always makes them dangerous.
by ThePriceisLongo on Jan 22, 2012 3:43 AM EST reply actions
Clueless shot in the dark by someone with an agenda. Pathetic..
Believe in the Fuld
Ah, give the guy a break.
He’s using a mathematical system, not an agenda. And he’s not stupid. He’s wrong about a bunch of instances of playing time. Those are tough to adjust for any team not your own, and I figure that he’ll tweak that as time goes by.
As for not including defense in his projections, it just ends up showing how much defense is worth, not what a bozo Clay Davenport is.
by Whelk on Jan 22, 2012 9:42 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think defense was taken into account
By my quick computation: TB’s team pitching BABIP is .289; Sox is .297; Yanks is .300.
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 22, 2012 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
Except our team's had BABIPs of like .270 consistently..
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 22, 2012 11:56 AM EST up reply actions
2008 and 2009 were much higher than the past 2 seasons.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Right, 2010 is when the trop transformed into a pitcher's park though
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 22, 2012 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Is there a correlation between pitcher's parks and babip?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Okay. I'm looking for something more definitive.
Is there an easy way to do this?
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Looking at team babip which doesn't account for batting away or for visitors
CWS was lowest, Phillies were lower and actually tied with the Jays.
Padres were in the middle, and Mets were 5th best.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
I've never really heard that about the Trop.
A’s stadium, though.
Haven’t been to the Trop in over a decade, and I don’t get to watch the game, so I don’t really know how it compares to other stadiums.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
The lack of scoring was the biggest flaw imo.
We will score more than the 707 last year by a decent margin.
maybe I'm just way too optimistic but the way I look at it the Rays are going into 2012 with the best rotation, bullpen, and defense in franchise history.
Price, Shields, Helly, Moore, Niemann/Davis its really not even close on this one when you factor in Shields in his prime, Price heading into it, Helly with a full year under his belt, Moore is the best pitching prospect we’ve ever had and the best in baseball and Davis/Niemann are solid #3’s we are using as our 5.
The Bullpen has always been a masterpiece that AF has thrown together every year it seems with an occasional layover or two, this year the bullpen is all back (save Sonny, which is an upgrade) and the young guys Gomes, Mcgee, Ramos should be more comfortable and Howell should be fully healthy and we return 8/9 in Farnsworth and Peralta and have added 3 potential long guys, break-out candidates in Rodney, Badenhop, and Lueke.
On defense we will have 4 potential gold glove winners on the infield with Pena, Zobrist, Brignac (I think he starts majority of games with the offensive additions to LF, 1B, DH), and Longoria and in the OF we have DJ, BJ, and MJ who, especially the first 2 will cover a ton of ground and should be an above average defensive OF.
Whether we live up to it or not, if there ever was a time to project the Rays for 95-98 wins it would be this year.
Completely agree.
This is the best team we’ve put out coming into the season in all areas. I’m pumped up for this season and will go on the record of saying this is a 95 win team as we sit now.
This BP may not be the best Rays BP ever but it could be the deepest.
Durham will be stacked with guys that are able to pitch in MLB without any significant further development.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Jan 22, 2012 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
lets look at it a bit going into the seasons
Soriano=Farnsworth (maybe slight edge Soriano)
Peralta= Balfour
Gomes= Wheeler
Mcgee>Cormier
Howell=Choate
Badenhopp>Ekstrom
Davis/Torres/Bush/Rodney>Sonny
Soriano>>>Farnsworth
even going into the season.
Balfour > Peralta
Choate > Howell
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think hindsight is required.
Especially for Soriano/Farnsy.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Anthony Rendon for Niemann+Davis+Upton who hangs up first?
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 22, 2012 12:29 PM EST reply actions
Is it just me, or does the deletion of posts on this site reek of fascism?
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Jokes and criticism regarding this site.
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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Someone telling me to quit running this site and get a real job, they're going to get bounced
Same if they said it to any one of the writers here for the site. If you don’t like it, you always have other options.
by Jason Collette on Jan 22, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
If it is off-topic or attacking anyone personally, it's going to get removed
We are month four into this set of site guidelines, and it isn’t going to change any time soon.
1. No personal attacks.
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4. Stay on topic.
5. Limit the use of profanity to the gameday threads.
6. No anime (h/t to the legends that helped this place grow)
If it falls into one of those 6 areas, it will be removed.
by Jason Collette on Jan 22, 2012 7:21 PM EST up reply actions
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