Carlos Pena and Luke Scott vs LH Starters

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 3:46 PM EST

Carlos Pena has struggled throughout his career trying to achieve consistent production against left-handed pitching and has a career slash line of .210/.309/.426 in 1,464 PAs. Over his last three seasons he has hit .179/.306/.398 in 532 PA. In 2009 he hit .211/.332/.482 in 196 PA but he has struggled over the last two seasons hitting .159/.292/.348 in 336 PAs.

Luke Scott has been more consistent than Pena against LHP and has a career slash line of .240/.318/.469 in 569 PA. Over the last three seasons he has hit .241/.301/.511 in 312 PA.

During the 2012 season Joe Maddon will have to decide which starting pitchers to rest Pena or Scott against. The 2012 Rays interleague schedule includes the Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, and New York Mets. Using the projected rotations provided by mlbdepthcharts.com for the 13 American League teams and the additional five interleague opponents a total of 27 probable left-handed starting pitchers was compiled.

Over the last three years against these left handed pitchers Carlos Pena has an OPS of .664 hitting .163/.270/.384 in 200 PA and Luke Scott has an OPS of .621 hitting .156/.204/.417. The shaded cells in the tables below indicate projected starters for AL East teams.

Pena has had his greatest success against Jon Lester of the Red Sox and Brett Cecil of the Blue Jays. He has hit 3 home runs against Lester in 28 PA and his only 4 hits against him are home runs. C.C. Sabathia has not only held Pena without a hit in 15 PA (1 BB) but he has struck him out 11 times. He has also struggled against Ricky Romero who has struck him out 5 times in 11 PAs.

Luke Scott has had his greatest success against John Danks and Jason Vargas but has struggled against Ricky Romero and has struck out in all 3 PA against Cole Hamels.

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small sample size is small

Use the force, Lueke

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by nomoredevil on Jan 22, 2012 4:11 PM EST reply actions

I hear that but...

If Jon Lester is starting for the Red Sox I have no problem leaving Pena in….likewise, if C.C. Sabathia is starting I’d have no problem giving Pena a day off or at the very least putting him 6th in the lineup.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions

I'd be fine with Pena never facing CC again after what happened last time he did it in a Rays uni

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 22, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

I'd be fine if he lined one into the gap in CC's teeth.

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by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I'd be willing to bet

that Pena is in the opening day lineup vs CC on April 6th.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't disagree with you on that

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 22, 2012 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I get that, I don't necessarily disagree

But it seems like it would be more useful to compare how they fared against different types of lefties (hard throwing sinker/slider types, “Danks theory” types, etc.) instead of just individual lefties. It would make the data more relevant.

Use the force, Lueke

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by nomoredevil on Jan 22, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

sometimes

it’s best to keep it simple and just present an idea.

Question: How have Luke Scott and Carlos Pena fared against potential starting pitchers over the last 3 years?

No reason to drive into the numbers any further if the question above is all that is being examined.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions

I'm more referring to the bit at the end where you go into which lefties to sit them against

0 for 3 with 3 Ks against Hamels is not terribly relevant. But if there is a certain type of lefty that these guys struggle against even more than usual, that’s a lot more useful.

And I imagine Joe & the FO have those sorts of numbers already in a spreadsheet somewhere.

Use the force, Lueke

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by nomoredevil on Jan 22, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

observations

not recommendations…nothing said there about anything.

Just some casual observations…the K’s against Hamels/Sabathia aren’t in the tables presented so I provided them.

Tables were intentionally left as vanilla as possible for people to look at.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

fair enough

would make a good future topic tho

Use the force, Lueke

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by nomoredevil on Jan 22, 2012 7:01 PM EST up reply actions

no doubt

One thing that is cool is that the list of starting pitchers is less than 30 and by using the definition of Power/Finesse & Avg PWR/FINESSE from b-ref we can probably drill down even more.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

It's what I like best about your articles

You tend to generate a lot of comments because you are rather open ended with your pieces. I enjoy the discussion they create.

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by Jason Collette on Jan 22, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

.306 OBP and 30% KO rate for Pena and .301 OBP and 27% KO for Scott versus lefties over the last three seasons is all I need to know...

…that there has to be some RH’ed hitting insurance to spell both on a regular basis against lefties in place. Pena’s three year regression is troubling as is Scott’s lead shoulder injury as a hitter. Maybe some sort of rotation system along with a RH bat that can handle such a role would be useful.

Now if you are counting on big HR totals from each, maybe KO’s and OBP doesn’t matter that much. I just struggle with the idea of both being in the middle of the line-up against lefties.

by budman3 on Jan 22, 2012 5:43 PM EST reply actions

I'll probably

put together a little something about relief pitchers once I dig into the specialty lefties that may be in each bullpen.

It is always fun to see if there is a bad matchup like Sabathia vs Pena or a good matchup like Pena vs Lester.

The lineup will safeguard against the loogy for Pena and Scott by inserting Joyce into the #2 hole when a RHP is on the mound:

Jennings, Joyce, Longoria, Zobrist, Pena, Upton, Scott, Rodriguez…

If the order turns over and the opposition uses a loogy against Joyce they’ll have a ways to go to get to Pena and further to get to Scott.

A lot of bullpens aren’t loaded with too many lefties…so, this should work well to diffuse the lefty effect…but not as much as having a late lead…this really hurts the loogy advantage.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 5:56 PM EST up reply actions

Really don't like Joyce 2nd.

But he does walk a lot, so maybe it’s good.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

theory used to be

a natural left handed hitter was best in the two hole. Theory being that if leadoff hitter got on base a lot there’d be a hole on the infield for a lefty. Plus, if the guy on first is a stolen base threat the hitter may see more fastballs.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 6:14 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I usually like some speed there

but I wouldn’t really mind Joyce after thinking about it, especially if he bumps that walk rate back up over 10%.

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 22, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions

This would almost make it worth signing

Manny to a Minor League deal, and using Canzler until he’s eligible to play.

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Jan 23, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

vs. lefties

The trouble in my mind is that Joyce can’t hit lefties either. So here’s what I see…

LF Jennings
CF Upton
3B Evan
2B Zobrist
SS S-Rod
DH Scott
1B Pena
C Molina
RF Guyer

If we could find a lefty mashing bench guy who can plan 1B it would be ideal. I’d love to see Pena is a straight platoon for much of the year.

by joaker5 on Jan 22, 2012 9:42 PM EST reply actions

Pena will not be platooned

Hopefully, the only time he sees the field against CC is opening day and he hits lower in the lineup.

I will suggest that Pena will hit lower in the lineup vs LH starters but he will, if healthy, start 145 games or more at 1b.

by MrNegative1 on Jan 22, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions

We don't know if he can't

He’s had ~120 PA in the majors to try it. He hit them in the minors, so we’ll see.

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by Jason Collette on Jan 22, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

i would take a chance with D Lee. Maybe get him for $ 1,5 - 1.8. take the pressure off Luke ? Los. Get a capable PH for the times we need to hit for Reid amd he can handle first base when some of these lefties start

by drungo on Jan 23, 2012 12:05 AM EST reply actions

Lee made 7.5 last season

He won’t have to take that kind of paycut to have a job in 2012.

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by Jason Collette on Jan 23, 2012 12:28 AM EST up reply actions

The one that the Rays missed was Ryan Doumit.

The Twins the switch hitting catcher for $ 3M. He is not a very good catcher but could have gotten a ton a AB between C/ 1B/ DH. I would have preferred this to Scott given the positional flexibility.

by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Jan 23, 2012 1:27 AM EST reply actions 1 recs