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Report: Tampa Bay Rays Close To Signing Jeff Keppinger

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - SEPTEMBER 11: Jeff Keppinger #8 of the San Francisco Giants hits a two RBI double in the bottom of the sixth inning giving the San Francisco Giants a 5-1 lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers at AT&T Park on September 11, 2011 in San Francisco, California.  (Photo by Tony Medina/Getty Images)

We reported last Tuesday that the Tampa Bay Rays were interested in Jeff Keppinger, and well, what do you know? Marc Topkin from the Tampa Bay Times is now reporting that the Rays are close to signing Keppinger, and that a deal could be announced later this week.

I was initially ambivalent about Keppinger, but the more I'm looking into this move, the more I like it. Keppinger is another bench bat, plain and simple. As such, he's competing against the following players for the three non-catcher bench spots on the Rays' roster:

Sam Fuld
Brandon Guyer
Elliot Johnson
Reid Brignac
Russ Canzler

We can eliminate Brandon Guyer from the list pretty easily. While I love him and I think he's a better offensive player right now than Sam Fuld, the Rays don't rush prospects. Despite his advanced age, Guyer will start the season in Triple-A and stay there until they think he's finally ready to hit the majors for good. This may seem extreme -- he did crush Triple-A last season over 440 plate appearances -- but Guyer has an important future with the Rays: he's expected to slide into the outfield in 2013 once B.J. Upton leaves via free agency. If the Rays halt his development by making him a bench player this season, what happens then?

So with Fuld on the team and Guyer in Triple-A, that leaves four players -- Keppinger, Johnson, Brignac, and Canzler -- for two bench spots. Canzler doesn't have much positional flexibility and the reports suggest his defense is poor, so he seems like an unlikely candidate with Carlos Pena and Luke Scott now in house.

And honestly? Out of Keppinger, Brignac, and Johnson, Kepp is the best player. His defense may be mediocre to poor, but he makes up for it with his bat. He has a good walk rate, doesn't strike out much, and he posted a .295 wOBA last season while struggling through two separate injuries (foot and wrist). That was a down year for Keppinger, too; he is projected to post around a .318 wOBA, and he posted a .332 wOBA in 2010.

While that may not sound like much, it's worth remembering how much Briggy and EJ both stunk at the plate last season. They were black holes; Johnson looked like the powerhouse of the two, and even he only had a .252 wOBA. Both of them would be lucky to post higher than a .295 wOBA, while that is essentially Keppinger's worst case scenario.

Also, as has been noted by many of you guys, Keppinger is a right-handed hitter who mashes lefties. He has a fantastic career line against lefties (.368 wOBA), while his line against righties is much less thrilling (.298 wOBA). Considering the Rays have recently signed a number of hitters with issues against left-handed pitching, doesn't it make sense to have a bench player that's good against them?

Remember when Friedman said this a few weeks ago?

"We obviously value defense a lot, but there's times where enough offense trips that line and makes it something that makes sense for the team."

At the time, I thought he was talking about a slugging first baseman, but the quote perfectly fits this situation. Keppinger has primarily played second base in recent years, and he looks like he's a poor fielder there (around -5 runs). But at the same time, his offense is considerably better than the Rays would receive from Briggy or EJ, and he's a good fit with their current roster construction. He can always play in the middle infield, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays tried him out at first base on occasion.

This is a bit of an atypical move for the Rays, as they're adding a bench player that isn't a defensive specialist. But considering everything else that Kepp brings to the table, I'm okay with it.

UPDATE: ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reports the deal is done pending a physical.

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so how much would you pay to have keppinger on your team?

i dont go over 1.7 million

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 8:49 PM EST reply actions  

Not much.

I can’t believe it is taking more than a minor league deal to get this guy.

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

i think he is worth more than a minor league deal

just because of the performance that he put up in houston…at a point in time he was a TYPE A free agent and would have cost a draft pick…now he is almost human garbage.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

ok

maybe not garbage…but he is going from Type A to people thinking a minor league deal or split contract…its a big drop.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Disagree on this.

I don’t see how in the world Johnson is better than Keppinger. Unless you’re really high on Johnson’s defense after his sss performance last year.

I tend to think Johnson is a good defender, but Kepp’s overall package still looks more valuable to me.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

how much more valuable?

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Helliot's pretty much replacement level

I think Keppinger’s a 1 win player and a better fit too.

by Barnacles on Jan 25, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the measurement of his offense is closer to his true talent than his defensive measurements

The UZR samples aren’t reliable that small and Johnson played 2b almost exclusively in the minors until a few years ago. I doubt he’s really a better defender than Brignac

by Barnacles on Jan 25, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I doubt that also.

However, he was supposed to be a good defender when he was in the minors, so……

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

how can you say he had a down offensive year when he hasn't had any other time in the majors?

he was awful

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 26, 2012 1:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Johnson is good defensively at SS.

Plus, Johnson should hit a little better next year given his low BABIP. And Johnson can also do some stuff on the bases.

It is close, but I like Johnson more.

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

But Kepp doesn't need to be able to play SS.

And you really think Johnson’s problems were BABIP related? I have a Dan Johnson over here I can sell you…

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Keppinger plays defense like his legs are made of wood

i cant even imagine him trying to play SS. he might do well at 1B though in a pinch

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh, not necessarily. You're constructing a bench, so you're not just going to take 4 OFers even if they're all the best players available.

The Rays have S-Rod for short, and they can always use that final bench spot for one of EJ/Briggy. So you’re bumping one of them off, while adding a player that’s A) better than the player they’re replacing, and B) complements the existing roster better.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Also worth remembering, Maddon likes his bench guys to be able to do the little things.

Johnson can’t bunt and he strikes out 30% of the time. His only redeeming offensive trait was that he has some pop, and he hits lefties a tad better (.293 wOBA last year). Kepp’s a better bench bat, better against lefties, and he rarely strikes out.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 8:55 PM EST up reply actions  

And Johnson was supposed to be an excellent bunter in AAA.

I’m not writing him off on a SSS. And why do the strikeouts matter?

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

there are few things more disheartening than a pinch hitter getting 1 PA and striking out

its just depressing.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 8:58 PM EST up reply actions  

just saying keppinger can take a walk

and hit singles…walks and singles against lefties…it is what it is.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Say if you had two players with the same overall offensive ability (.300 wOBA), but one had lots of Ks and one was a contact hitter. Who do you choose?

In the end, it depends on your roster and what you’re looking for from that spot. But considering the Rays have lots of strikeout guys and they love to hit-and-run, Kepp seems to fit.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

it was just one guys opinion bit while covering preggame duties last year

The bulls radio and now rays pregame guy said EJ was the best “little things” player he’d seen including bunting and he was shocked at his.struggles last year, I don’t think u forget how to do those things so maybe sth else was going on who knows but I dont think the little things will ever keep ej from a job, his problem will always be his weak bat

by Dbullsfan on Jan 25, 2012 9:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

#LittleThings

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions  

outside of SF he has been in great hitters parks

His offense will most likely take a decent sized drop and not be good enough to warrent his.glove over EJ for me, I’d rather have Guyer than either tho

by Dbullsfan on Jan 25, 2012 8:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

But the question isn't Keppinger or Guyer.

It’s Guyer/Fuld.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

with zobrist and to a lesser extent sean being able to play both IF and OF

Whether that last bench spot goes to an IF or OF doesnt really matter and I can’t see us going with Joyce and Zoby being the only LH options in the OF so IMO Fuld is pretty much a lock

by Dbullsfan on Jan 25, 2012 9:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

If Fuld is a lock, there's a 0.01% chance that Guyer gets on the roster too.

With five outfielder on the roster, Guyer would almost never see playing time…what’s the point?

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm writing the player comments over THT, and I had said this about Guyer.
At the least, Guyer will be the short side of a RF platoon with Matt Joyce, but with Joyce working out at 1B during the winter, it’s possible Guyer could seize the position outright.

My how things have changed.

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I really think a trade is in the works

the Rays have so much pitching depth and this offseason has seen quite a return for pitching that it seems like a sellers market. I see no reason to have 7-8 MLB ready pitchers and not make a move to either add an impact bat or to add some more prospects to an already deep system.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:13 PM EST reply actions  

+1--I think Kepp's been signed since he tweeted about the rays

but the rays are holding off on the announcement because it coincides with a tradde they’ll announce shortly

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Makes sense so that they don't have to DFA another guy

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

here is a thought

Upton for Alex Meyer and Destin Hood…

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

No.

That would be utterly retarded.

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 9:40 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

why would that be so retarded

toolsy outfielder under control and a high upside pitcher with two above average pitches.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

And the pitcher has a 20 grade command.

And that would trade away Upton in a “all in year.” I can’t stress the horribleness of the trade.

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions  

"all in year"

if adding keppinger and luke scott means all in i think there is a difference in opinion on what it means to be all in.

also i dont think meyer is a 20 in command, he is a tall pitcher and they take longer to develop, plus if any team could squeeze out every ounce of talent its the Rays..Meyer could be dominant growing up in this farm…Maybe Hood is a bit more risky, but Goodwin might be on the table.

Upton will walk at the end of the year and the best you can get is two draft picks and meyer and goodwin/hood are worth more than those picks i would say.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions  

"All in" has been thrown around so often that it's nauseating. How is the team going "all in"?

They haven’t traded any prospects for a “now” player. They haven’t reached on a signing. These have been mostly under the radar value-type moves. I’m with you, James

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

2010 is as close as it got

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions  

the good old days

when chad qualls got you a draft pick…haha

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions  

This is a contending year, then.

And a contending team doesn’t trade away talent that would improve their team

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 25, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Trying to pigeonhole the Rays into a binary, cliched mold does a disservice to the tireless work of this entire front office

They’re always looking for marginally better talent if it costs nothing in farm depth. Guyer and Brignac have two and one options, respectively. They’re being very risk-averse by stockpiling as many guys as they can and I think it’s a smart move. Most of these pieces are relatively interchangeable. In the event that it’s not working out for an option then it’s next man up. I don’t see a downside other than it costs, maybe, a couple of million. It’s funny that people bitch about the Rays not spending money, then when they do on a depth move people complain that they’re not getting value or that poor Elliot Johnson might have to go through waivers again.

The Yankees and the Red Sox wish they had depth like this, both on the bench or in AAA. With older players nearly everywhere on the diamond you’d think they’d be the one’s making this move.

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok that makes more sense, just had some strong emotions on some concepts and wanted to get them all out in one place

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you're right.

The Rays have abandoned the concept of buyer/seller in favor of a holistic better/worse model that encompasses several years. Something that makes them better is always a good move, something that makes them worse, always a bad one.

I think if the right package for Upton was offered tomorrow, they would take it without a second thought, as long as the math worked out.

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I need to introduce you to my in-laws then.

Jewish and hippies….and baseball fans. Rays season ticket holders in fact.

Oh and annoying. Very annoying.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Not sure if he's a hippy.

But Scott Barancik of www.jewishbaseballnews.com is fantastic to talk to (which in my mind makes him into a lefty of some sort).

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 11:10 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Knowing Scott Personally

He is a great guy, and a good softball player…a former hippy, who had to grow up and have a kid

by Moorewinsplease on Jan 25, 2012 11:24 PM EST up reply actions  

My father-in-law is actually a rabbi.

Congregation Ohr Hadash.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Messianic?

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 25, 2012 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

No, he said they were Jews

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "not since they nerfed sunfire capes"

†††If you love Jesus Christ and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jan 25, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

The Messianic Jew Alarm went off in my lonely lonely cave

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "not since they nerfed sunfire capes"

†††If you love Jesus Christ and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jan 25, 2012 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

C'est vrai

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "not since they nerfed sunfire capes"

†††If you love Jesus Christ and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jan 25, 2012 11:41 PM EST up reply actions  

epaulettes

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 25, 2012 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Fashionable and demonstrative of office

The caller said the boy, after removing the bulb from its socket, left the building and threw the bulb on the ground. When the bulb broke, the caller said the boy screamed "not since they nerfed sunfire capes"

†††If you love Jesus Christ and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jan 25, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

If you're gonna be a bear, might as well be a grizzly

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes.

My wife’s family are Messianic Jews and her Dad leads a congregation.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 26, 2012 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

There are plenty.

My girlfriend works for the Jewish Daily Forward, and half their writer staff went to Wesleyan.

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

stat geek has imaginary jewish girlfriend, news at 11

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Jan 26, 2012 1:35 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Whoa, go to any youth convention

Birkenstock fever

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 25, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

No, I don't think Meyer and Hood are worth a year of Upton in 2012 and two draft picks.

And I saw Meyer several times. He seriously has 20-25 command. and Hood is only a B- prospect.

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh wait, Rendon alone?

I would still do it if they threw in a C+ prospect.

by mr. maniac on Jan 25, 2012 10:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I would do Rendon alone

Even if his shoulder is messed he’d be an above average 1B

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 25, 2012 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

they wont trade him though.

i would rather trade upton, move jennings to CF collect some high upside prospects because the 2013 draft is going to be way more shallow than last years draft and the new collective bargaining agreement wouldnt really help the Rays out with the more picks they have…I know that the more picks the more money, but i dont think it is proportional is it? maybe Meyer and Hood arent enough but i could see something like Meyer and Goodwin with a lesser prospect thrown in, maybe Marrero.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 26, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions  

It's questionable how much value we'd get in return for Niemann/Davis, the two we're most likely to trade

If we were to offer up Hellickson, then things would be very different, we probably could get something comparable to the Gio Gonzalez/Michael Pineda hauls. But for Davis/Niemann, I don’t know what we’d get

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 25, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions  

i wonder if something like this would work

Upton and Niemann for Meyer, Hood, Marerro and Ray…

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

not a sellers market

that’s wishful thinking. There are still FA pitchers out there that are just as good or better than Davis (I’m looking at you E-Jax). Teams don’t have a ton of interest in giving up players when they can get the same or better play in free agency. If davis had performed better it would be a different story, but he really hurt his prospect status last year, so now instead of a Gio Gonzalez type deal, we get no deal at all.

by joaker5 on Jan 26, 2012 6:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Keppinger deleted his Twitter account

The account @Jeffkeppinger where we originally got wind that Keppinger was talking to the Rays is no longer in existence.

I wonder if we got him in trouble. Hehe.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 9:16 PM EST reply actions  

do you really think

Rays FO people read these threads? ( not trying to be a dick just seriously wondering)

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I have no idea.

But the account was there last week and we do a story based off of something he tweeted (although it was actually his friends running the account?) and now it’s gone. It seems like a logical conclusion that either the Rays told him to shut it down because his friends were running it or he decided on his own to do it .

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

fair enough

i think it would be cool if the FO skimmed through some of the content here because most people who post here are thoughtful and logical..

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:30 PM EST up reply actions  

The threads? Not necessarily.

The articles? Yeah, I can confirm that they do.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 25, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions  

then that is cool

i wouldnt mind my job being the guy who has to read all team related blogs.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Also about the deleted account.

I asked his friend @MattBankston to help me verify the account and he said:"

“I think some effort has been made to verify, but I don’t know how that works, and Jeff really doesn’t care himself. It’s just for some buzz.”

“Most of his tweets are made from a friend (not me) but they are accurate. Jeff told me about the Maddon call himself, he expressed interest.”

So this is what leads me to believe that someone (Keppinger, the Rays, his agent?) put the account to rest.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 9:37 PM EST up reply actions  

nice sleuthing

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

And one more tweet.

“@RaysDigest @draysbay the account was started in the offseason with pressure from friends. He’s not a social media guy.”

Maybe he just decided that his friends were being to careless…that’s a possibility too.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Perfect fit for the Rays bench.

A lefty masher with positional flexibility. Seems like a no-brainer after Pena/Scott.

I’m in. I like it.

by Vin on Jan 25, 2012 9:19 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

A lefty masher with positional flexibility.

Last three years splits against lefties of .302/.345/.453/.798 does not make for a masher.
Defensive flexibility?…meaning he can play several spots and none of them well?

by budman3 on Jan 25, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions  

When we're talking about the bench and platoons, we should be regressing our projected splits.

I just shared a tool to do that through a fan post. Feel free to use it. The research is from The Book, and I made it off the description from Another Cubs Blog, so very little of the credit is mine.

http://www.draysbay.com/2012/1/25/2735217/regressed-platoon-splits-calculator

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 9:23 PM EST reply actions  

I get a .308 overall projection using Zips

Due to the relative small amount of PAs against lefties I’m getting that he doesn’t have a platoon split despite having a .368ish wOBA against lefties and .297 against righties. I’m getting expected values of .308 against lefties and .307 against righties. That seems a bit crazy, but again, what he’s done so far against lefties needs to be heavily regressed. I’m curious what you’re getting.

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions  

For Keppinger?

I used the .318 Bill James projection, and came out with a .351/.304 split. One of us made an error. Let me check what I got for some other players against what you wrote in your piece to see if it’s systematic, or just on Keppinger. Did you use Zips for all of them?

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I also have a much more smoothed split for Rodriguez so I think there's something wrong with my RHH tab

Lefties are coming out similarly

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Caught it, your stuff is fine, thanks for putting it together

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

So if Keppy is expected to wOBA at .308 (Zips) then you'd expect .330 vLHP and .299 vRHP

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Cool. Thanks. Glad it was on your end.

I’ve had a few and it took me until right now to manage to input the data for Longo, so if the mistake was mine, I wasn’t going to find it any time soon.

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Since we're just throwing money around now...

let’s just go and be a mystery team and bring in Cespedes!

by Snarfalicious on Jan 25, 2012 9:30 PM EST reply actions  

Bam! I can't remember I didn't remember this.

His friend @MattBankston sent me a bunch of tweets last week and told me:

“And that he would be a situational hitter for the rays. Jeff is originally from Miami and with his location in ga, tb would be a good fit.”

So if this in fact true…then this clears up the mystery as to why he was signed.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 9:32 PM EST reply actions  

Done deal--per Crasnick

eff Keppinger has agreed on a one-year big league deal with #Rays, pending a physical, says a source.
38 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:44 PM EST reply actions  

BJ to Nationals Trade?

I have read some comments in prior articles that doubt Washington is a match after the Gio trade, but the Nats have shown obvious public interest in BJ.
Michael Morse for BJ straight up?
I have never seen Morse play, yet his 2011 season numbers were good.
Two cheap years left on his contract, 1st base/left field power bat.
Chris Marrero could be a piece too.
I just don’t see the Rays spending over 60 million this year.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 9:52 PM EST reply actions  

BJ isn't going anywhere especially to the Nats

and besides Morse just signed an extension

and why can’t the payroll go north of $60 when Silverman just the other day explained how and why it would

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Jan 25, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

the Nats have money to burn with no Prince Fielder

and they are in need of a CF badly…i could see a potential trade. Maybe Meyer, Hood/Goodwin, and Marrero…just a thought.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 25, 2012 9:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Due to the Nats public interest

I just see the Nats wanting BJ before free agency.
If they did trade for Beej, I see them locking him up prior to 2012 season.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Personally, I want BJ to stay...

..but his salary is high(compared to most of the roster) and it is his last season.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Draft Pick adds credence to your comment

Yet, I could see the Nats overpaying for 1 year of BJ now that Fielder got away.
They could lock BJ and Zimmerman up prior to the season.
Werth/BJ/Harper is not bad.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

They got relievers, dawg

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

What about Morse?

I am not sure either side would agree to that.
Hypothetically, Morse could play Left and 1st for the Rays.
Nats put Werth in Left. Harper in Right and BJ in Center.
Morse could replicate BJ’s power?
Like I said before, I know nothing about Morse except his 2011 numbers…
…which are impressive.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Cheap for 2012 and 2013 too.

Chris Marrero could be a piece too.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis' salary alone will not lower payroll enough; in my opinion

I am more suspicious of a BJ trade after recent moves.
Obviously I know little about what they will do.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Well stated, old man

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Banning for that would be silly

I have been banned a few times under other names dating back to 2008.
Some were justified, others were a bit strange.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions  

It's only been two days, but kudos to SS and Pals on the new new vision

I haven’t read everything posted, but it doesn’t seem like anybody has been grating on another and I’ve had some good genuine laughs that I don’t think anybody would get too uptight about.

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Indeed

It’s been a while since I enjoyed DRB this much. Not sure how long the (second) honeymoon will last, but I’m encouraged.

by nomoredevil on Jan 25, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I enjoy the nasty back and forth

…but having a positive discourse is better for the site itself.
I am not getting banned anymore.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions  

It gets old pretty quick, it's nice filler during the dull days as long as people realize that it's just BS guytalk, but some people get sensitive about that

There isn’t really a place for it on a baseball blog

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

While we're all giving each other bro hugs...

I apologize for being a dick to some of the ottotd guys yesterday.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions  

b&

we don’t give hugs, we give reach-arounds

by Jason Collette on Jan 25, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I think I'll pass on the reach-around.

but it’s good to know that they are available here should I require one.

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

Rays Digest
Rays Digest Twitter

by John Gregg on Jan 25, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions  

How many more Kotch HR before I get your $10?

6? 4? I’ve wiped Kotch clean from my memory now that Pena is back, and I don’t even remember how many HR he hit.

FREE GUYER!

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 25, 2012 10:35 PM EST up reply actions  

He had 10 last year, did I bet that Sonnanstine would have more or some such?

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions  

You bet he would not have 15 more CAREER HR

This was during ST last season. 5 to go!

FREE GUYER!

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 25, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions  

He's about to get Dye'd so thanks for reminding me of this

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Here it is.
Gimme the guy that doesn’t need a bunch of excuses made on his behalf
I’d be willing to bet a friendly $10 that Kotchman doesn’t hit 15 homers at the MLB level the rest of his life
This is my serious username
Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dock of the Rays
by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 19, 2011 7:43 PM CDT up actions

He’s got plenty of time to hit the next 5. This is a bet I can’t lose!

This whole thread is an awesome Kotch hatefest, btw (and DanJo lovefest):http://www.draysbay.com/2011/3/19/2060594/wade-davis-has-a-bad-day-rays-lose-to-twins-9-2
A good read for any new members who think the regs are almighty haha It was one of my first feats of strength as a new member haha

FREE GUYER!

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 25, 2012 10:54 PM EST up reply actions  

.
I don’t think his pride will let him retire that soon, but we’ll see.

This is my serious username

Follow me: @SandyKazmir, read me @ Dock of the Rays

by Sandy Kazmir on Mar 19, 2011 9:10 PM EDT up actions 1 recs

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Emphasis mine
Wade > Ramos, Cabrel, Swindle, Delaney and >>>>>>>>>>> Ekstrom

But my opinion doesn’t really matter to AF and co much. Anyway, he may of given up a 3 run shot but the confusion is probably because it was 1ER, the other 2 went to Wade.

Under construction

by joeybw on Mar 19, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up actions

†††If you love Jesus Chris and are 100% proud of it, copy this and make it your signature!†††

by Sandy Kazmir on Jan 25, 2012 11:02 PM EST up reply actions  

preachITbrotha

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Jan 25, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

who doesnt like a good retard joke?

classic.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Jan 26, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Okay.

Thank you.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I am just throwing it out there

Davis/Niemann might be of interest to the Nats as well.
I am just pondering Upton being dealt, since the payroll is higher than expected.
It would not shock me to see Upton dealt in a package with a Niemann/Davis and the Nats have shown very public interest in Beej; along with the BJ being from the area/Zimmerman connection.
Upton’s value is huge; he will get paid after this season.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Keppinger is a contact guy

As it was stated in earlier comments, that compliments the current offensive makeup.
Friedman did say he would find “complimentary” bats.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 10:26 PM EST reply actions  

you guys got jobbed

Andruw Jones signed with us for 2 mil, and 1.5 mil last year. He put up a .950 OPS vs lefties last year and a .920 the yr before that. Like I said in the other Keppinger-hate thread, you guys have gotten too used to crappy offense.

by XrayYankeeZulu on Jan 25, 2012 11:15 PM EST reply actions  

We all agree for the most part

Although you ought to consider the park factors, and the fact that Andruw probably could’ve gotten more money elsewhere

by benderbrodriguez on Jan 25, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Jones would have been nice...

…but he likely just wanted to stay with the Yankees.
I doubt he ever tried to seriously search the market.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 11:22 PM EST up reply actions  

Come up with another cheap lefty masher after Jones.

I’d love him, but you don’t get hall-of-famers on your bench very often.

by Whelk on Jan 25, 2012 11:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Rays are always depth champs

This is how they survive the 162 game season. This is why Guyer will start in AAA instead of the majors. He is more valuable to them as the insurance OF than PT duty here. He can get every day ABs in Durham so he can step right in here if/when needed.

As far as defense is concerned, sometimes the Rays are willing to sacrifice there if they feel they get enough in return in other areas. Or has everyone already forgotten that Damon was signed to be the starting LF???

Rays have insurance policies in the bullpen, INF, OF, SP. No other team has this type of depth. And it’s a big reason why the Rays will be contenders again this season.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 25, 2012 11:34 PM EST reply actions  

I still hold out hope for a Allen Craig trade

with the Beltran signing, there’s no full-time opening for Craig. Jon Jay was worth nearly 3 WAR last year, while playing CF after the Rasmus trade. If the Cards are truly interested in replacing Edwin Jackson and don’t win out on Roy Oswalt (or resigning Jackson), then maybe a Niemann/Davis for Craig swap might still be a possibility in ST, as long as Craig’s knee checks out.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 25, 2012 11:44 PM EST reply actions  

Without a BJ trade

How does Craig fit into the Rays roster?

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 25, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

could be domino effect leading to a Upton trade

or use him all over, getting ABs in LF/RF/1B/DH. And with him easing back in after knee surgery (not realistically ready until May) this might be the perfect way to use him in the first year. And he still could easily get 300-400 AB as a backup, with Maddon’s penchant for resting players. With Upton and Pena only signed for this year, Craig’s greater value would be moving forward.

by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 26, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

Did not know he was injured

Which seems to be a negative in trading for him now; or a good time if you believe his value is lowered somewhat because of his knee.
Curious about what will happen in regards to potential trades.
Baseball needs to hurry up and start.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Jan 26, 2012 12:12 AM EST up reply actions  

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