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Rays Community Prospect #29

With 22% of the votes, Brandon Martin wins the voting.


1. Matt Moore (100%)

2. Hak-Ju Lee (100%)

3. Alex Torres (53%)

4. Enny Romero (80% runoff)

5. Tim Beckham (64%)

6. Mikie Mahtook (63% runoff)

7. Brandon Guyer (50%)

8. Chris Archer (65% runoff)

9. Drew Vettleson (48%)

10. Taylor Guerrieri (80%)

11. Alex Colome (75%)

12. Derek Dietrch (40%)

13. Josh Sale (39%)

14. Ryan Brett (50%)

15. Parker Markel (43%)

16. Jake Hager (41%)

17. Tyler Goeddel (43%)

18. Jeff Malm (60%)

19. Oscar Hernandez (48%)

20. Tyler Bortnick (84% runoff)

21. Granden Goetzman (80% runoff)

22. Lenny Linsky (36% runoff)

23(T). Ryan Carpenter (32% runoff)

23(T). Russ Canzler (32% runoff)

25. Matt Bush (33%)

26. Robinson Chirinos (60% runoff)

27. Johnny Eierman (26%)

28. Brandon Martin (22%)

Star-divide

Justin O'Conner: A catcher with good defensive tools and plus power, O'Conner seems like the guy who should be near the top of the list. However, his approach at the plate has been awful, resulting in a crazy amount of strikeouts. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=oconne001jus)

Andrew Bellatti: Once involved in a fatal car crash, Bellatti is a sleeper propsect in the low minor leagues. His stuff isn't notable yet, but he is young, has potential, and has posted good numbers. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bellat001and)

Matt Spann: A young lefty with good pitchability and a projectable frame, Spann has posted good numbers in the low minor leagues. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=spann-001mat)

Stephen Vogt (C): Despite putting up mediocre walk rates, Vogt has hit well at each promotion, especially in regards to batting average. He offers versatility yet isn't good defensively in any catergory. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=vogt--001ste)

Kyle Lobstein (LHP): A finesse lefty out of the disastrous 2008 draft, Lobstein projectibily has yet to promote his stuff, leaving him as an athletic pitcher who only throws in the mid to high 80s. His offspeed pitches offer potential and he has shown a good ability to mix up his pitches and control the strike zone. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lobste001kyl)

Andres Gonzalez (RHP): A pitcher from the VSL Rays, Andres dominated despite playing in an extreme hitter's park. He reportedly thows in the 88-92 range with a good curve and a developing changeup. His BB rate is very promising, but his K rate leaves plenty to desire. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gonzal004and)

Jacob Thompson (RHP): A second round pick in the 2010 draft, Thompson is a big, strong RHP with a low 90s fastball and a plus slider. Thompson has one clear issue: strikeouts. While he could be aiming for pitchability, a 4.4 K/9 simply doesn't cut it for a top prospect. He also struggles with hittability, which would hint towards a weaker than often described fastball. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=thomps003jac)

Cole Figueroa(2B): A MIF acquired in the Jason Bartlett trade, Cole Figueroa provides a solid floor with a limited upside. He is a similar prospect to Bortnick. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=figuer002ste)

Grayson Garvin (LHP): A 2011 first round pick out of Vandy, Garson signed late, giving him no pro time (yet). While his ceiling is "probably" limited, he offers a high floor due to his polish.

John Alexander (1B): A HS 1B, Alexander was drafted in the eighth round of the 2011 draft. He performed well in his short GCL stint. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=alexan003joh)

Jacob Faria (RHP): Like Alexander, Faria was a HS pick in the 2011 draft, coming from the 10th round. He put up superd numbers in a extremely short sample size with the GCL Rays. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=faria-000jac)

Felipe Rivero (RHP): Another product of the Rays efforts in Central America, Rivero provides a low 90s fastball and a "potentially" plus curve. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rivero001fel)

Nick Barnese (RHP): Barnese stock has fallen in the past years, due to a lack of progression of his stuff, weakening stats, and injuries. It appears his fastball still sits in the 90 range (with excellent movement). His other pitches still have some potential. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=barnes001nic)

Lucas Bailey (C): A fourth round pick in the 2009 draft, Bailey was viewed as the savior, the catcher of the future! Unfortunately, Baily has yet to live up to the hype, showing defensive skills but only mediocrity with the bat. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=bailey001luc)

Albert Suarez RHP): Suarez is an interesting player, a player the Rays have shown much dedication and hope for despite many issues. At his best, Suarez has a low to mid 90s sinker that could develop into an excellent pitch. He also has some other pitches with potential; as of now, health is a big issue.(http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=suarez001alb)

Jose Lobaton(C): A catcher who has slowly worked his way up the minors, Lobaton offers good defense with a questionable bat. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lobatjo01.shtml)

Kes Carter(OF): Yet another first round pick from the 2011 draft, Carter wasn't exactly a "popular" pick. He has shown injury issues and some struggles against left handed pitchers. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=carter001kes)

Wilking Rodriguez (RHP): A hard throwing, young pitcher, Rodriguez has failed to break out as many expected. However, he has excellent stuff, which leaves scouts wondering why he can't produce better results. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rodrig007wil)

Braulio Lara (LHP): A lefty with a blazing mid 90s fastball, Lara proves plenty of upside. However, he is old for his levels and failed to dominate in 2011, throwing him a bit off the radar. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lara--001bra)

Jason McEachern (RHP): With a fastball thats sits in the 93-94 range and a good looking curve (that he doesn't throw much), it seems stange that McEachern seemingly can't get past Bowling Green. His delivery is a bit like Masterson's and he lacks much of a third pitch, so a move to the bullpen could be in his future. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=mceach001jas)

C.J. Riefenhauser (LHP): A 20th round pick in the 2010 draft, CJ had excellent numbers in a little over 100 innings at Bowling Green. However, reports indicate that he lacks an above-average pitch. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=riefen001cha)

Marquis Fleming (RP): One of the Rays best releif prospects, Fleming puts up impressive numbers despite a dull fastball. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=flemin001mar)

James Harris (OF): A first round pick in the 2011 draft, harris has exciting tools. However, he is also extremely raw. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=harris021jam)

Ty Morrison (CF): A speedy OF with the potential to gain some power, Morrison has plenty of physical upside. However, to this point, the baseball skills have no been there. (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=morris001ty-)

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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Comments

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+1

"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon

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by John Gregg on Jan 26, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

again, seriously: at some point, isn’t this a site for ""Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument" and not just “dude, the BA guy thinks this guy doesn’t have a plus pitch”?

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 26, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions  

And a guy who had better stats two levels higher but is already a reliever

When CJ’s upside is probably as a reliever anyway, and who verifiably has a plus-plus pitch, isn’t more deserving?

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2012 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

the argument that Riefenhause is going to wind up a reliever

is just a circular reference to the singular scouting report. What I’m saying is that, at some point, performance matters. What else would you have Riefenhauser do in his two years in professional ball?

At this point, the numbers show a potential starting pitcher. I get the scouting reports; that’s why I didn’t start voting for him until #27 or so; he gets bumped down a lot.

But now we’re at the point where we’re talking about guys with serious deficiencies. Why not vote for the guy who’s done everything you could possibly ask him to do?

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 27, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

High A?

He pitched 37 mediocre innings there, striking 5.8/9 while have a 4.14 ERA (he did only walk 2.7/9 though). So he hasn’t had success above Bowling Green.

by mr. maniac on Jan 28, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

Look at Riefenhauser's splits. Please.

Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com

by Imperialism32 on Jan 27, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Between his stuff and his splits

Reifenhauser is a no-brainer loogy someday

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2012 7:01 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

QUESTION

How is Ty Morrison a better prospect than Cody Rogers? Rogers had a down year as well, but it was still better than Morrison’s, only Rogers actually has better tools. Seems silly to me for people to vote for a guy who had about a .600 OPS last year based on tools when there are toolsier guys we haven’t even set testers for.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2012 8:33 PM EST reply actions  

To expand

His best tool is supposed to be his speed. Yet he went 19-7 in SB attempts, and had only 8 doubles and 2 triples in nearly 300 PAs. On the other hand, Rogers (who BA rates as having a better speed tool, FWIW) had 43 SBs with the same number of CSs, plus 18 doubles and 13 triples in only about 60% more PAs. And he hit better at A- than Morrison did the year previous. Literally Morrison’s only advantages are ARL and draft position.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2012 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Hell

Forget Cody Rogers, Shawn O’Malley is a better prospect than Ty Morrison.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 26, 2012 8:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Ty Morrison posted wRC+s of 116 and 112 in 2009 and 2010.

He also plays a good CF and stole 58 bases in 2010. He is considered one of the system’s best athletes. And he has been young for his levels.

Rogers does have better power but he has been older and put up only similar offensive numbers.

They are pretty even for me.

by mr. maniac on Jan 26, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions  

I would argue that pedigree and draft position are pretty similar

That said, pre-draft, Rogers was rated and Morrison wasn’t. And Rogers was a way above slot signing.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2012 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed

I’d vote for O’Conner over Morrison

by AndrewTorrez on Jan 27, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

That works for me too

I just think that after 2 1/2 years of average production, with a really bad year last year, the fact that he’s toolsy just doesn’t cut it anymore. And BA rates his speed tool lower than Rogers’.

Catchers take longer to develop, so I can kind of buy that one (plus O’Conner had a better pedigree than Morrison, if you’re looking at that).

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2012 7:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Hindsight my ass

I argued in probably 5 out of 7 threads why people were making a mistake voting for him. And because I back it up with slightly different numbers than those most people here use, I end up getting mostly ignored.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jan 27, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Your argument was solely based on the fact that righties profile well in Durham's park.

However, why didn’t Jennings then hit better? Should we discount Guyer in a similar way? You had a point with the numbers, but were too extreme. The Rays decision gives us the first bit of “scouting” info, as I’m sure if Guyer’s reports said he could hit, he would be kept.

by mr. maniac on Jan 27, 2012 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

lol

you werent the only one

by rglass44 on Jan 27, 2012 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Go back and look at the votes

There’s a reason Canzler kept ending up in runoffs.

by generaltso on Jan 27, 2012 10:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I know.

I really didn’t want Canzler in the top 30, but he had a group of posters who wanted him.

by mr. maniac on Jan 27, 2012 11:38 PM EST up reply actions  

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

I feel like I’ve lost a friend.

FREE GUYER!

by SandalsNoPants on Jan 27, 2012 9:43 PM EST up reply actions  

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