In the same vein as this and this, I've done early napkin projections for the big 3 of the AL East. I opted to not project bullpens at all, given how volatile relievers are, and I know the bench projections are somewhat lazy. They're fairly conservative predictions, but even though some players may slightly over-perform the predicted numbers, a few will drastically underperform them (due to injury, or general ineffectiveness), so for teams as a whole, they should be relatively accurate. Some random notes after the jump.
- Given that replacement level for a team is ~48.5 wins, this projects the Rays for 94.5 wins, Yankees for 101.5 wins, and Red Sox for 98.5 wins. Clearly my projections were still a little generous on the whole, probably due to health and such.
- The hardest player to project was Jacoby Ellsbury, no question.
- The Red Sox as a whole have a very high variance roster. Beckett, Ellsbury, Crawford, and Youkilis all have the potential to be worth more than 6 wins. They also could all be worth no more than 2 wins. Still, even if they end up in between, they'll still be very good players.
- In the end, these projections are just predictions, and they have little value more than just looking at last year's statistics. No need to get too hung up on them.