2012 AL East Projections For the Big Three

In the same vein as this and this, I've done early napkin projections for the big 3 of the AL East. I opted to not project bullpens at all, given how volatile relievers are, and I know the bench projections are somewhat lazy. They're fairly conservative predictions, but even though some players may slightly over-perform the predicted numbers, a few will drastically underperform them (due to injury, or general ineffectiveness), so for teams as a whole, they should be relatively accurate. Some random notes after the jump.

TB WAR NY WAR BOS WAR
C Molina/Chirinos 1 Martin 3.5 Saltalamacchia 3
1B Pena/Canzler 2 Teixeira 5 Gonzalez 6
2B Zobrist 6 Cano 5.5 Pedroia 6.5
SS Rodriguez/Brignac 1 Jeter 2.5 Aviles/Punto 2
3B Longoria 7 Rodriguez 5.5 Youkilis 4.5
LF Jennings 4 Gardner 5 Crawford 3.5
CF Upton 4 Granderson 6 Ellsbury 6.5
RF Joyce/Guyer 4 Swisher 4 Sweeney 1
DH Scott 1.5 Revolving Door 1 Ortiz 3
Bench 1 1 1
Total 31.5 39 37
S1 Shields 4.5 Sabathia 6 Lester 4
S2 Price 4 Pineda 3 Beckett 4
S3 Moore 2.5 Nova 2 Bard 2
S4 Niemann 2 Garcia 1.5 Buchholz 1.5
S5 Hellickson 1.5 Burnett 1.5 Lackey 1.5
Total 14.5 14 13
Total Total 46 53 50
  • Given that replacement level for a team is ~48.5 wins, this projects the Rays for 94.5 wins, Yankees for 101.5 wins, and Red Sox for 98.5 wins. Clearly my projections were still a little generous on the whole, probably due to health and such.
  • The hardest player to project was Jacoby Ellsbury, no question.
  • The Red Sox as a whole have a very high variance roster. Beckett, Ellsbury, Crawford, and Youkilis all have the potential to be worth more than 6 wins. They also could all be worth no more than 2 wins. Still, even if they end up in between, they'll still be very good players.
  • In the end, these projections are just predictions, and they have little value more than just looking at last year's statistics. No need to get too hung up on them.

Discuss!

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker