Fernando Rodney's Deal With Rays Finalized
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 11:43 AM EST
in Tampa Bay Rays News
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From Enrique Rojas, ESPN Deportes:
Deal done between Fernando Rodney and
#Rays. Rodney get $1.75 million in 2012, $2.5 million option in 2013 and 250K buyout.
My first thought: I was all ready to hate this deal, but the option year has me intrigued. The Rays have obviously had success in the past in helping pitchers with control issues, and Rodney's control is the only real thing preventing him from becoming a dominant back-end reliever like Grant Balfour. He throws 95 MPH and has a good changeup. He generates 50+% grounders. He keeps the ball in the yard. His pitching profile is quite sexy....if he can learn some control.
If the Rays see Rodney as a fixable problem, then this deal could work out fantastic. Farnsworth and Peralta will likely be out the door after this season, so if Rodney does breakout, this deal provides the Rays with some back-end bullpen depth for 2013.
Of course, that's assuming the Rays can straighten out Rodney's control, which is by no means a guarantee. Remember Juan Cruz from last season? He was a similar case as Rodney -- older, Power Arm, control issues -- but had some extra injury concerns as well. He was somewhat successful for the Rays last season (3.88 ERA, 4.20 FIP), but he didn't harness that control and take things to the next level.
So that's how I see Rodney: he has the potential to be the next Balfour, but also the potential to become another Cruz. If the Rays can't fix his control issues, oh well, they only dumped $2 million into him. At the very least, Rodney should be a good low-to-mid leverage reliever in 2012, and this signing won't handicap the Rays in acquiring an offensive player this season or in their endeavors next offseason.
The Rays obviously see something in Rodney, and they seem to strongly believe they can turn him around. He's a gamble, for sure, but I'll trust the Rays' staff on this one. If they think they can fix Rodney, then I'm all for it.
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Usually when I see an Angel jersey and the guy was signed/traded for
I think “oh, it was Maddon” but Joe wasn’t in LA when Rodney was so this is Friedman seeing something, I’m not sure what but the guy who had a bullpen of “Andy Sonnanstine” and that’s all after 2010 has really built some depth and I wont challenge him.
Matt Moore. That is all.
If Hickey can fix Rodney can the White House be that far removed for his next project?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
similar control issues
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Jan 4, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
only a g-d fearing man can
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
I think even in the worst case scenario, it's difficult to call $2m a "horrible" deal.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
see below
$2MM has more marginal value to the Rays than any other club in baseball. Were the Rays outbid by more than $2MM per year on Beltran? (Okay, probably.) What about Luke Scott?
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 4, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Scott is a good get on a bargain deal.
If teams start tossing around large-ish, guaranteed figures for him, I’m fine with the Rays getting outbid by $2m. If they’re going to get him, they’re going to get him cheap.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
well, that's sort of my point
if the Rays go (say) 1/5 for Scott but get outbid by a team going 1/7, wouldn’t you rather have that extra $2MM back?
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 4, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
1/$7m isn't going to stop the Rays from getting Scott...they have the room for that.
The difference would have to be something like 1/$7 vs. 1/$11. And at that price, they should tap out.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
well, we'll see
you’re arguing that the Rays aren’t going to be outbid by $2MM for a player they want. I think it’s plausible they will. Obviously I hope you’re right.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 4, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I also tend to think the Rays aren't going to sign a "big" bopper this year.
I see most of the offensive improvement coming via trade. Anything else is gravy.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
getting ahead is everything
His whiff rate on his fastball is somewhere around 4% while his change up whiff rate is 4x that. If he can get ahead of batters, he is good. His oppOPS has been better than league average over last 3 seasons when he has been ahead in the count.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 4, 2012 1:21 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
not horrible
but not great…the thing with Juan Cruz is that while he was a Ray he had a SO/BB of 1.64 which is not great but compared to Rodney who had SO/BB of 0.93 it is outstanding….I think saying “worst case scenario he is Juan Cruz” might be giving Rodney too much credit. Cruz also has a much better track record of K/9 so the upside with Cruz was higher.
I think Juan Cruz is the break even point in this deal and worst case scenario Fernando Rodney is Fernando Rodney.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Jan 4, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
I suppose, but I tend to view that likelihood as rather extreme.
Cruz walked 5 per nine last year with a horrible GB%. Rodney doesn’t even have to drop his walk rate that much to be better than that.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
thats true
he does have a GB% that is very helpful especially with good defense that will be valuable…but he did walk almost 8 per nine last year, however i do think he will return to around the 5 per nine in 2012…its just scary when you walk more than you strike out as a power reliever.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Jan 4, 2012 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
cause he wears his hat like a douche
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Jan 4, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
overreaction of the decade
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
nice comment
Founded in 2005, DRaysBay is home to, “Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument.”
you're right, yours was much more reasoned.
as far as I know the rays don’t operate under a strict cap, so 2M allocated to one deal does not mean they only have X-2 to spend on another. your argument is worthless. next please.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
I don't mind it, the buy out isn't huge so if he doesn't work out in the spring they can cut ties
but they must see something and like I said the Rays must have some other moves in place hopefully with the pitching because we have way too many major league arms right now. Great problem to have though.
will you still feel this way in a week
when the Rays are outbid by $1MM on Luke Scott?
For a team that has to go dumpster-diving, I don’t get why you would give $2MM guaranteed to a guy that basically nobody wants in a position of no real need, particularly when you still don’t have a 1B or a DH.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 4, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
that is why I think they already have some deal(s) basically in place
you don’t give that money away if you don’t already have a pretty good idea at what you are doing at 1B/DH
well, if that happens I'll reconsider
but right now, a lot of what the Rays are doing leaves me scratching my head, and I say this as a pretty reliable apologist for the front office.
Can’t figure out why they passed on Quentin for scraps.
Can’t figure out why they traded for Lueke.
Can’t figure out why they’d way outbid the field for Rodney.
Obviously, you evaluate the offseason when it’s over, and not while things are still in the works. But right now, this looks like a winter of lost opportunities (offset, I should say in all fairness, by the unbelievably awesome Matt Moore deal).
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 4, 2012 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Lueke has plenty of talent, despite the negative off field stuff.
I try not to second-guess the non-trade (Quentin), since you don’t know that Friedman didn’t check it out and the White Sox were asking for too much. My impression is that teams see the Rays’ system and they get greedy.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Has Friedman made a trade with Kenny Williams yet?
by Ben Tumbling on Jan 4, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I don't remember one and that feels weird
KW, to suger coat makes a lot of mistakes and Friedman loves to “Friedman’d” some one, figure they would be a perfect fit. KW doesn’t like white guys.
Matt Moore. That is all.
Yes. For John Shelby.
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
by Vin on Jan 4, 2012 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
FG has a good article on why quentin is a big risk
a risk i still would/will love for the rays to acquire, but especially in petco. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/carlos-quentins-power-in-petco/
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
have you considered that they didn't "way outbid the field" on a formerly elite reliever who they feel their staff can return to a valuable contributor?
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
anyone who thinks Rodney is a "formerly elite reliever"
has no idea what those words mean. Rodney was… a useful arm in 2005 and 2007, I guess. That’s not really what I consider upside.
and why does everyone always consider that we "passed" on quentin, you have NO IDEA what went on in negotiations and
whether or not we were even contacted by KW.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
well, what I do know
is that the White Sox traded away Carlos Quentin for two C-level prospects. If that doesn’t strike you as a missed opportunity, then I can’t help you.
Andrew Torrez obviously is more suited to make team decisions than Friedman
You can be unhappy that we didn’t land a bat we need at a price we could pay but it’s utterly moronic to say the Rays missed on it. You have zero clue as to what those negotiations consisted of and who the players involved were.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
by pudieron89 on Jan 4, 2012 4:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
relax, and have some dip
Second-guessing the Rays is what we do here. “You don’t know what happens in the front office!” (or on the field, or in the dugout, or whatever) is the kind of stupid cop-out that people say when they don’t have sensible arguments.
No, I’m not the GM. Do you have a response other than that?
If you read at all then you'd see that I've torn your argument apart multiple times.
Whereas your “point” is that FRIEDMAN SHOULD HAVE DELIVERED US QUENTIN— it’s a joke. Yes he’s a good target, but just because it didn’t happen does not mean that the FO screwed up. And that’s the last time I’ll address this nonsense.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
I think you might be rating the offseason a little harsh so far.
Castro took a step back last year, but I wouldn’t call him a scrap. It is very possible that KW views Castro higher than you do. What if he was asking us for Chris Archer and Kyle Lobstein for Quentin? Would you still make that trade in a second? As much as I would of liked to see Quentin as our DH I’m not so sure I would trade 6 years of Archer and the chance Lobstein turns into something for one season of an oft injured 2 WAR DH who will probably cost somewhere around 7 million.
I think this is the biggest part.
The White Sox value the buy low on a guy who was a very highly thought of prospect last year. Rightly or wrongly this is what they wanted and if they wanted something they viewed as similar it would not just be 2 random Cs to make the deal work.
wrong wrong wrong
if the rays are outbid by 1M on Scott it’s because they didn’t want him at that price. We saw when they traded for Soriano that they will take on any deals they feel are good value and good for the team.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Yes, this.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
you don't think there's a hard cap?
you don’t think every dollar matters?
The rays seem to set a range every year and we make relatively big moves well into the spring.
Yes every dollar matters, NO there is not a hard cap. Sternberg has every reason to trust Freidman to make smart signings after te market is set. And this signin is a very low risk one targeting the type of reliever the Rays feel they can revitalize and have done in the past (Cruz Benoit Balfour etc)
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
by pudieron89 on Jan 4, 2012 4:41 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
There is no hard cap...they've stated that repeatedly in the past.
If a player is a good price and they want that player, they’ll get them…the Soriano scenario.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Is Kerry Wood still saying "Cubs or retire"?
Because that seems like a guy who can pitch late in games, not cost much and he’s just sitting there, no interest from anyone. I hope he’s in “Cubs or retire” mode because it wouldn’t have cost much more to sign Wood instead.
Matt Moore. That is all.
on this same note did Mark Prior reup with the Yankees or is he still out there
I would love to give him a minor league deal.
What a shame his career has become
Prior would get hurt before giving us a chance to get excited about even 1 appearance out of the bullpen, probably.
Matt Moore. That is all.
Roster Implications.
Following this move, and If the Rays start the season with Niemann or Davis in the bullpen, then Gomes is going back down to Durham to begin the year.
But this move indicates to me more that a deal for Davis/Niemann is gathering pace and will go down by the start of Spring Training.
Is $2 million a waste? That’s up for debate, but from a roster risk perspective, it lessons the potential damage of Farnsworth/Peralta not matching last season, and providing the team with hopefully a viable back-end option.
I really think a Davis or Neimann trade is down to the final touches
Both Friedman and Maddon have said Gomes is one of the 4 they see as locks coming out of ST. Rays are so quiet about deals that they don’t get announced for a week after they make them like with Rodney here or Bartlett last year (hell, that seemed like 2 weeks actually). For all we know, they already dealt Davis/Neimann.
Matt Moore. That is all.
In my mind, it's Niemann who's going.
I think you could be right with that trade going down sooner rather than later. The only thing for me is that I would prefer to see the SP market die down before the Rays trade one of their SP’s. A desperate market just before or during Spring Training could get a better return rather than right now.
Either way, Davis or Niemann in the bullpen at the start of the season seems more unlikely now.
It's possible
There could be a worry that the AL East has figured him out and while he does out smart a lot of hitters, he can’t over power them. If they figured out a trend of how he pitches in certain spots, he could be in a lot of trouble.
Matt Moore. That is all.
i would hate that. i don't think we could get an adequate return.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
and he's going to be better this year.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
agreed
I wouldn’t be for trading Hellickson, but I imagine if it happened it would be at such a colossal return that we’d all be happy.
Of course I mean better in his processes. And I never want to sell high on a young potentially elite starter with lots of control left.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
by pudieron89 on Jan 4, 2012 4:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Niemann has less years of control and much more injury issues
He’s the better of the 2 when both are healthy but all those injuries, through the minors and now in the majors will lower his value for sure. I think it will be Davis that goes.
Matt Moore. That is all.
yea I don't think Gomes is going anywhere
I think he will be a huge part of the pen, but than again I like him more than most. I think he is going to have a big time year as far as being a quality set up man. I have no problem with Gomes/Mcgee in the 7th, Peralta the 8th, and Farnsworth the 9th. This is why I don’t see spending 2 mil on a 6th inning guy a necessity and something I wouldn’t expect out of AF. It makes me wonder if Farnsworth could be on the verge of being dealt. Compared to last year having Peralta, Gomes, Mcgee, and even Rodney as potential closers would be pretty darn good.
Gomes looked really good in August and September last year
so I share your optimism about him. Still think the Rodney signing is a waste of limited resources, but that ship has sailed.
as of this moment I agree with you
but lets see how it plays out, if we don’t trade either Peralta or Farnsworth it is a lot of money to throw at a 6th inning/mop up guy.
I was going to say this is better than the endless Anthony Rizzo daydreams
but now I’m not so sure.
Appearently, we were finalists for Coco Crisp
No idea why but him wanting to stay on the West Coast is the only reason he’s not a Ray.
Matt Moore. That is all.
that has to be a joke
otherwise, there’s another item to add to the “WTF this offseason?” list.
Plus side
If we’re willing to give Crisp 7 million, you have to think we are in on Pena.
Matt Moore. That is all.
or that someone kidnapped Andrew Friedman
and replaced him with, I don’t know, Omar Minaya or something
He can fix this, he can
He can fix this, right?
Well, the Rays seem to have a decent amount of spending money and only 2 holes, AF will do this.
Matt Moore. That is all.
What? Crisp is quite good.
You are being very hyperbolic today.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 4, 2012 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Could be close to dealing Upton.
Or legit about moving Joyce to 1B/not sold on Guyer in RF.
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
by Vin on Jan 4, 2012 6:18 PM EST up reply actions
This makes much more sense. But not about moving Joyce to 1st base.
Crisp has never played RF and the last time he played LF was in 2005. The guy is a CF’er and if they had signed him it would have been to play him in CF with Upton being traded before ST. And at some point, when Jennings takes over in CF, they could slide Crisp over to LF(much less to RF where Zobrist could always play).
Than again, maybe there is little truth to the report about the Rays interest in him.
"Rays of made Rodney deal official"
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 4, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
boom
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Hated it
I hated this at first glace, but then I started thinking about positive arbitrage. Maybe we just aren’t getting the values that we want for the bats, but if there is value for a reliever, even one that we don’t need then its important to take advantage of it.
Why? Because of the potential for positive arbitrage. If we can get good performance out of Rodney then he is flippable at the deadline, maybe for prospects or maybe for a bat when we need it. It’s like flipping a house. We clean it up, do a little remodeling, make it look great, and sell it for a profit.
That’s how this team lives and dies, and viewing it through that lens I can understand and appreciate it.
Reliever market was killed in the new CBA
you won’t get anything for them
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
Funny.
I saw his name on the list last night and actually thought about it for more than half a second. I don’t expect us to sign or trade for any more relievers, unless it’s someone like Wuertz on a minor league deal.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 4, 2012 6:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions
i would like to see the rays trade for soto
Still clobbers LHP and hit over 40 XBH in a little over 400 AB, or only about 10 less than Scott in 2010, and plays C. Davis for soto and sign pena and Scott. Would make for one hell of a 1-9.
by raysfaninminnesota on Jan 4, 2012 7:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Walks going down, KO's going way up, slugging and average heading south?
I would be concerned about a 29 year old who may be having the catching position starting to catch up on him.
Extreme groundball pitcher.
Should improve with this defense. Would like to see his K rate bounce back. Hating on pronouns.
What could be better than Dan Johnson
hitting .108
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward!
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.
by QW on Sep 28, 2011 9:47 PM CDT
Rays tell him to "tone it down" and pitch to contact.
Rodney’s fastball sits around 93 instead of 95 (he’s currently the hardest thrower on the team according to fangraphs) while his slider sits around 87 instead of 89. As a result his K/9 drops slightly, BB/9 drops drastically, and GB % rises.
Rodney becomes one of the better situation-type relievers in the AL while posting the best strand rate on the team.
(Why not?)
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
Close, I think.
Rays tell him to tone it down with the fastball. It’s 93 instead of 95 and he throws it for a strike more. He gets ahead in the count, rarely uses his changeup, and blows people away with his changeup. K/9 rises, BB/9 drops, GB% rises.
i'm assuming the first changeup = slider?
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
I think the Rays may be a little weary of pitching Peralta as much as they did last year
If they can get Rodney cleaned up and get him to harness his potential than that gives us another late inning option that can over power hitters.
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