Why I'd Be Fine If The Rays Didn't Acquire A Young Hitter This Offseason
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:03 PM EST
in Features & Analysis
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PrintWith Rizzo now off the market, I'm starting to think that the Rays odds of acquiring a young, major-league-ready hitter in a trade are slim to none. Heck, it's entirely possible that the odds were never that high to begin with, especially when you're shopping Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann during an offseason where there are numerous better starters available via trade (e.g. Mat Latos, Matt Garza, Wandy Rodriguez, Roy Oswalt, etc.).
That's not to say that Friedman won't still get something done; I'm just saying that I'll be pleasantly surprised if something does develop. The targets we've tossed out there in recent weeks are all exciting and fun -- Mark Trumbo, Kendrys Morales, and Lucas Duda among others -- but there are some large obstacles in acquiring almost every one of these players. As I mentioned in a thread yesterday, feel free to poke around in the Triple-A leaderboards (OF, 1B) for someone we're overlooking, but I'm finding it tough to find a hitter that's on the market (or could be) that would be a good acquisition for Davis/Niems.
But actually...wait. What if the Rays could somehow get their hands on these two hitters? Both were 25 years old last season, and both spent the year in Triple-A.
Player A: 12% walk rate, 23.5% strikeout rate, .215 ISO, .410 wOBA, 157 wRC+ (best in Triple-A)
PlayerB: 7.9% walk rate, 17.8% strikeout rate, .200 ISO, .400 wOBA, 150 wRC+ (fourth best in Triple-A)
Attractive, no? It just so happens both these hitters are already in the Rays organization.
Most of you have probably guessed already, but Player A is Russ Canzler and Player B is Brandon Guyer. From all reports, Guyer is also a strong defensive corner outfielder (and he can moonlight in center), which probably makes him a better defensive outfielder than Matt Joyce. I love Joyce, but there were times last season where he looked downright awkward out in right.
Meanwhile, Canzler played all around the diamond last season: third, first, and left and right field. While he's never been thought of as much of a prospect, this was the second straight year in a row that Canzler has posted a wRC+ above 150 (in 2010, he had a 151 wRC+ in Double-A with the Cubs).
If nothing else develops, the Rays could decide to enter the season with Joyce, Canzler, and Guyer splitting time between first base and right field. This would provide the Rays with alllll sort of flexibility; Guyer could fill in anywhere in the outfield, and Canzler could also fill in for Longoria if he ever needed a day off or got injured (knock-on-wood).
I'm not sure how the Rays feel about Canzler, and it's possible he starts the season in Triple-A again. But I certainly wouldn't mind seeing the Rays start the season with Canzler and Guyer on the team, even if that means the Rays don't acquire a "First Baseman of the Future". Both players deserve a chance to see what they can do in the majors, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either (or both) of them turn into a valuable contributor to the Rays for multiple years to come.
#FreeBrandonGuyer! #FreeRussCanzler! It's about time these guys got some love.
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My opinion:
Joe Maddon does not want to platoon at 1b.
An occasional start by someone else than player x would be fine but I believe that giving the other 3 infielders and a pitching staff an anchor over at 1b is a huge part of the Maddon philosophy.
I am the exact opposite as you as I would like Canzler and Guyer in AAA to start the season and be brought up if needed. (I know I am pretty alone on this island).
I'm not sure I get the "does not want a platoon a X position" stuff.
Someone mentioned it once for SS before, and it always struck me as odd. What’s the benefit to having one player entrenched in a position vs. platooning? It seems to me the only thing Maddon wouldn’t want is platoons at 4+ different positions, since you can’t possibly make a 25-man roster work like that. But I don’t see what positions the platoons are at mattering a damn.
The Rays had a platoon going at 1B last season for a while with DanJo and Kotch. They’ve platooned at shortstop plenty of times before. I don’t think any position is necessarily off limits.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
We don't know what will happen @ 1st
Pena was rarely sat at 1st through slumps vs LHP when Aybar was around to hit
Kotchman didn’t sit last season because there was no option to hit LHP that was demonstrably better to force it.
Joe has shown a fondness for using matchups at other positions based on data so I wouldn’t say “no” to anywhere but 3B.
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by Jason Collette on Jan 9, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I would suggest
based on Maddon’s time as manager here that he rarely likes to have multiple players at 1b.
He also has spoke many times of the importance of first base.
Will he platoon there? Sure, he might. I’d lay odds heavily against it though.
I believe the Rays will either trade or sign a first baseman that will play the majority of games at first base.
Yeah, I guess we'll see. I just don't think Maddon has ever been in a position where he could platoon players at 1B.
Last year was his first season since 2007 without Pena, and you’d be silly to platoon him with his sort of thump.
If the Rays don’t trade for a young guy, I’m kinda hoping they go with Joyce at first to start the year. I’d love to see how that works, and I also would like to get Guyer and Joyce more ABs. I’m not sure if I see the Rays doing this (depends how high they are on Joyce’s d at first), but it’d be cool.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
unless there's a miracle trade in the works
I’m on board with Joyce → 1B
Yes, if you believe in Brandon Guyer...
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I mean that there aren't really any 1B candidates out there to acquire via trade
that, on balance, would be better than Brandon Guyer.
Yup, agree...that's my thinking too.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sold on Guyer...
Even though they guy only played minimally, I’m not sold on Guyer from what I’ve seen so far. That’s not to say he can’t do it, but I’m not going to be a very happy camper if he ends up starting on a team that is supposedly trying to spend about $10 mil more this offseason than last year and get back to the playoffs. I think that a lot depends on where Prince Fielder finally signs. If Prince goes to the Mariners, I see the Rays going hard after Justin Smoak. If Prince signs with the Rangers, there have already been rumors of the Rangers wanting to send Mitch Moreland to us for Wade Davis so I can see that happening. If Prince signs with Washington or Miluakee though, then I think the Rays will sign Kotchman or MAYYYYBE Pena who’s price has to be dropping with an apparent lack of interest in him. I just want the Rays to reamin relevant and I’ll be crossing my fingers that they get better at 1B and resign Damon.
Platooning at SS...
And how exactly has that worked out for the Rays? A platoon means nobody gets any extended time to get “into a groove” and therefore they put up numbers well below average. I’m all for Canzler being the next Elliot Johnson super utility guy but as for yet another platooning position to go along with C, SS, and at least one of the OF spots,… yuck!
I can't claim to have seen him play it much.
You follow Durham closely? Care to expand on that? I’m going based on the little bit I can find online.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
In chatting with a couple of scouting types
Canzler can “play” both corners, but he can’t play either position. A RH Dan Johnson if you will
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by Jason Collette on Jan 9, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, good to know.
Guess that makes him more a bench/DH bat. Eh, oh well.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather have Betemit ;)
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by Jason Collette on Jan 9, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
If you're worried about Canzler's defense...
Betemit would be a more sure thing offensively, but defensively he looks like a poor fit.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
I think it's more than that
Halfway through the season, Montoyo moved Canzler off of 1B (after having moved him off of 3B) and to the corner OF/DH. This is the same manager who played Dan Johnson at 3B for most of the season, and in an organization that doesn’t need corner OF-types (and does need a 1B). That tells me that Montoyo thinks Canzler can’t play 1B at all.
As I said to rglass in another thread — and take it for whatever it’s worth — it looks to me that Canzler reacts very, very slowly to the ball off the bat. He’s very athletic, and he moves well for a big guy, but it just seems like his reaction time is incredibly slow.
If that’s the case, he’s never going to be able to play the IF, but he might have a chance to be a passable below-average defender in a corner OF spot.
That’s my take, anyway.
I dunno, if I guy is terrible at one position, you don't move him UP the defensive spectrum.
I think his — and Dan Johnson’s — moving around has more to do with having three first baseman (Johnson, Canzler, and Leslie Anderson) than any defensive issues.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
precisely
The “defensive spectrum” is a rule of thumb. Generally it’s easier to play 1B than it is to play LF. For some people, that’s not the case. I think Russ Canzler is one of those people, and I’ve given both scouting and evidence-based reasons why.
1B to COF if you have the bat to play at either is not quite a dramatic move "up" the spectrum, and could be related to merely necessity.
not to mention that if you have a good arm, even with miserable range and instincts you could be passable in the OF if your bat plays.
"I don't always post off-topic, but when I do, I post at http://ottotd.com" - $tinky $tu
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Pretty sure Adam Sobsey had a similar take in his coverage
OK once he gets moving, but slow to get moving.
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Yep
When mgmt asked me about writers to add, Sobsey was the 1st name I submitted.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 10, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
#Humblebrag
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by FreeZorilla on Jan 10, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
nice job
BP looks like it’s really turning itself around from its nadir
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Nice post
Only thing is moving Joyce to 1B. I remember when the Rays acquired him hearing that he had good defensive ability. He hasn’t played any 1B in his career, seems like it would be uncharacteristic for the Rays to have him learn at the ML level.
The Rays have had him working out at 1B this offseason.
It’s definitely a distinct possibility that he slides in there next season.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Really? We're playing the triple-A numbers game again?
Did Dan Johnson’s .119/.187/.202 season (on the heels of a .303/.430/.624 line in 2010 with Durham) not happen? I get that Canzler is a good deal younger than DanJo, but I don’t see him as a starter
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
I'm not suggesting him as a starter necessarily.
Guyer and Joyce would get the majority of starts in RF/1B, yes? Canz would essentially be a bench bat that could fill in a number of places depending on the matchup (granted, I don’t know much about his D). Or be Triple-A depth, depending how the Rays fill out the roster.
Mostly, I felt silly highlighting Guyer’s performance and not also mentioning Canzler. Guyer’s the real nugget that I think people are underrating.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, now I'm curious what you think about Guyer.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
Its easy to underrate someone with no arms or legs
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 2:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Either this is a joke I'm not getting, or you're way more pessimistic on him than anything I've seen/heard.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
People with no arms or legs
Nuggets
I have a horrible sense of humor ha. Btw I think it was you I recognized in the mcdonalds drivethru I manage…either you or hamann.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 4:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Ooooooh! Gotcha.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Thats was you, right?
…im not a 100%
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 4:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hmm. If you live in Florida, probably not.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Erm, probably not me. Could be Hahmann.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah probably hahmann
I add him to the long list of celebrities ive taken the order of, including the whole brighthouse crew on a weekly basis. Lou pinella was my fav tho
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 4:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Park and 52 ave
I have a bad habit of looking a ppls cards when I swipe them to see if its a name I recognize, thats how I came across hahmann. How sad is it that not one person that was working knew who lou pinella was when he came through ha
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 5:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm sure you've swiped my card before then
Didn’t notice “Free Zorilla”
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
Ha yeah guess not
I pretty much talk sports with anyone wearing gear
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 9:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I stick out like a sore thumb
Only college educated white guy in his mid 20’s ha
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 9:37 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yes, it happened.
With a wrist injury. In 91 PAs. With a .125 BABIP.
If the Rays said they were starting Dan Johnson at 1B this year, I’d be just about as happy with it as I was last year (which was perfectly content).
by Whelk on Jan 9, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Not to mention, Canzler hit that well at a much younger age than DanJo.
The whole DanJo thing from this past year still smarts some.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Even despite all those things though he wasn't just bad, he was like ridiculously awful
wRC+ of like around 0 bad, with a BB% that completely vanished (6.6). Given his career BABIP of .243 in the bigs (in 1500+ PA) I’m skeptical to say that his true talent isn’t significantly lower than league average there.
All this said, I think DanJo can be a decent bat, but not good enough to be even a useful 1B (I’d love to be proven wrong though)
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think he has enough bat to be a 1B, forget DH
What do you think his true talent wOBA is? I’d guess about 330, at which he’s not worth anything at DH and worth little at 1B
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
DH's only hit at a .337 wOBA clip last year.
Ironically, that is the exact same number as 1B. So I’m wrong in that department.
Whoa no way
Maybe fangraphs’s positional adjustments are in need of tweaking then
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:53 PM EST up reply actions
Oliver has him at .337 for 2012, and that seems right to me.
Though I see plenty of opportunity for him to be better. That’s going with a pretty low batting average, which could easily fluctuate up and put him in “good 1B” territory.
Nice post Steve, I tend to agree with you.
The more this off-season plays out the more I am convinced that the Rays may be just as well giving Canzler, Guyer….and even Stephen Vogt a long look.
Vogt is a guy that rarely gets talked about, and he can really probably only be a DH realistically. But he has hit at every level of the minors and looked good in winter ball against pretty decent pitching.
"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon
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I agree
I was working on some throw away projections for this year while bored at work and knew canzler raked last year but I didn’t know he raked that much…I also didn’t realise that he is only 25…for some reason…looks like he might be a classic AAAA guy but I don’t think he has a lot to prove in AAA
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by OneTonneBaby on Jan 9, 2012 3:24 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Letting both Guyer AND Canzler start in the majors is as close to giving up as it gets, imo.
if we are going “all in”, I’d say we have $10M to spend on 1B/DH, right? Now, I think Guyer should get a chance to start in RF this year, but with a backup plan. which is why I’ve been mentioning Shelley Duncan recently. So, doesn’t that mean we have about $10M just for a 1B? I think so. Of course, that brings up plenty of options, like Konerko, Butler, and Pena.
This has to be about the 10th time I’ve said it, but I am on the “1 year deal for Pena” boat. I just think it will cost too much to acquire Konerko or Butler.
Also, I believe we can acquire a future 1B in the process. Wade Davis to the Cards for Matt Adams and a C+ prospect? I’d take it.
But like I said, I’m just not on board with letting Canzler start the season with the Rays. It’s just too much of a risk in a year that we have talent and money (even if it’s not much) to help win a WS title.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
I think you go "all-in" for a DH at this point, move Joyce to 1B
and give Guyer a shot in RF. Using Butler (just as an example), that’d give you a lineup of:
LF Jennings
2B Zobrist
3B Longoria
DH Butler
1B Joyce
CF Upton
RF Guyer
C Molina/Lobaton
SS Brignac
That looks pretty good to me.
That's a possibility :)
If we can trust Joyce at 1B and Guyer in RF, I’m on board with going after Butler. So, what would it take to get him?
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions
Also, I'd still want us to somehow acquire Matt Adams.
I like everything about him right now.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with you on Adams
slight concern about his BB/K rate but he would be a fine consolation prize for having lost out on Rizzo
I wonder if there's a way to get both Butler and Adams,
without trading 2 of our 8 MLB-ready pitchers. Looks doubtful at the moment, but I hope we can find a way. Adams would surely require Davis/Niemann, right?
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
no way to tell
I don’t see much buzz about him in STL quarters, but who knows. I think had the Cards re-signed Pujols, it would have been a no-brainer
1,000 monkeys at 1,000 typewriters
if he’s right about Delino DeShields, Jr. being a future star, I’ll revisit my opinion
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
vs. L/ vs. R
just thinking this through — if Guyer is the starting RF, that opens up a bench spot for Canzler, who could start at DH vs. lefties. You could also stomach Butler’s below-average defense at 1B once or twice a week to spell Joyce. That’d give you lineups like this:
vs. L: LF Jennings / CF Upton / 3B Longoria / 1B Butler / 2B Zobrist / SS S. Rodriguez / RF Guyer / DH Canzler / C Molina
vs. R: LF Jennings / 2B Zobrist / 3B Longoria / DH Butler / 1B Joyce / CF Upton / RF Guyer / C Lobaton / SS Brignac
bench: C (Molina/Lobaton), IF (S. Rod/ Brignac), OF Fuld (L), DH Canzler (sometimes Joyce)
I have no idea what it would take to acquire Butler; KC has been unpredictable in terms of their front office. I would think he’d be available for something on the order of Alex Cobb, but who knows.
I'm hoping for Shelley Duncan in Canzler's place,
but it’s no big deal to have Canzler play once or twice a week, like you said.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
What do you think would be a fair trade both ways?
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
why not?
they’re essentially the same value now, and I think Butler has more potential to be a 4-win player down the road. That, plus scarcity plus positional need means you trade 5 years of Cobb for 3 of Butler.
I don't think control would be much of a concern
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
$8M in 12, 13, AND 14? I'll trade for that every day.
Not to mention Butler hasn’t reached his prime yet, you know you’re getting nothing less than what you’ve seen, and showed power in the 2nd half of last year.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:41 PM EST up reply actions
One concern:
Righty-filled team? Having a 1B who costs 8 mil+ probably gives Guyer the RF job. If that 1B is a RH, then what? Basically replacing 2 lefties, Kotch and Damon, with 2 righties could be a problem. IF we brought in Butler, I think we should find a way to bring Damon back as well.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
i like this. butler im warming to if hes not expensive to acquire.
his power breakout in the second half helped.
I think as a bench player/bat, you could do far worse than Canzler.
And I also think it’s highly likely that Guyers get a lot of PAs next year, and I’ve got no problem with that. It’d be far from giving up…it’s probably the best option for the Rays in RF.
Sign Pena or Scott or something for DH, get a bench player…anything on top of that I’m considering gravy at this point
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that Guyer should be given the chance to play RF.
And agree we could do far worse than Canzler, but breaking camp with no moves made at 1B/DH is pathetic. But that’s just me—I may be under-rating Canzler at this point.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, they're going to get someone for DH at least.
The trick will be if they end up getting two big(ish) bats or just one.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
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by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if Damon could fit in with a big-ish bat
if that bat costs $8M
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think you just have to be honest with Damon
and say you’re looking at him as a 400 AB role-player and not a 150-game starter. If he’s cool with that, he’d be a great bench bat/spot starter/clubhouse cheerleader.
If not — well, Price is still around to do goofy stuff in the dugout, and I think Fuld might shine in a 4th OF role.
Have to hang on to Damon.
He’s always the one to spike the Gatorade in late innings!!
@RealNolenBailey
As I wrote earlier, the addition of Jennings for a full season might be the biggest difference from last year offensively.
If we can get a .325 and a .350 wOBA hitters to play the roles of DH and 1B. This offense isn’t as inept as many would make it seem. I think most of the struggles get overblown when we had 3 automatic outs batting 7-9 it seemed for those games when we would have Elliot, Brignac, and Catcher playing.
This team can win 95 games with their pitching and defense. And that is enough to get your chance in the playoffs. An extra bat would obviously be better if it doesn’t take away defensively, but I don’t think it’s necessary.
Even if Jennings has a solid sophmore season
you’re talking about a team with three good hitters (Longoria, Zobrist, Jennings), one good but flawed hitter who can’t hit lefties (Joyce), one streaky hitter who disappears for long stretches versus righties (Upton), a platoon guy who can only hit lefties (S-Rod), two automatic outs (Molina, Brignac), and no DH or 1B. That does not strike me as a 95-win team even if they lead the league in pitching and defense.
Plus, it’s a team — like the 2009 and 2010 models — that’s particularly unsuited for the playoffs against elite pitching. If Longoria is tired/slumping in October, you’re looking at one guy (Zobrist) who can hit C.C. Sabathia or Jon Lester.
Joyce was much better against lefties last year.
And his killing of righties makes him, overall, a good hitter.
And Upton didn’t hit lefties at all last year, only hitting righties well.
Quibble
Plus, it’s a team — like the 2009 and 2010 models — that’s particularly unsuited for the playoffs against elite pitching.
I doubt that’s true. Bill Petti shows that elite run preventing teams did better in the playoffs than elite run scoring teams: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/2/22/1994723/is-it-better-to-be-an-elite-run-producing-or-run-preventing-team
Moreover, Upton has OPSed .880 against Sabbathia, and S-Rod .872
(See 2010-2011 ALDS)
2010: 21 runs allowed (solid), 13 runs scored (not solid). This in 5 games.
2011: 16 runs allowed (very good), 21 runs scored (better). This in 4 games.
The problem with 2011 was that we scored 9 runs in game 1. We then lost by 2 in game 2, then lost 4-3 in the next 2 games.
We have a pretty solid lineup and greta pitching, but we just need another impact bat to reach the next level.
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
by sc_monsta1015 on Jan 9, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
The runs allowed were the same in a per game scenario, but the offense was much better.
Granted they didn’t have to face Cliff Lee twice.
As I said 2 hitters added 1 being .325 and a .350 wOBA hitters at 1B and DH (or other positions if it causes somebody like Joyce to move to 1B/DH).
When you’re talking about 20-30 PA over a 5 or 7 game series things are always going to be streaky. Teams will struggle if their biggest players struggle, especially in high leverage situations.
What is the difference though between 2009/2010 and 2008? Longoria and Upton carried the offense through the playoffs. The numbers of the 2 hitters would replicate approximately what Damon and Kotchman produced in 2011. An offense that produces another 0.50 a run a game that would put them in the range of NY, Boston, and Texas wouldn’t automatically make them produce better in the playoffs.
The biggest weakness last year in my opinion was the bench which made matchups problematic in the playoffs when they are magnified. I’m hoping they will have better production from the bench this year, which wouldn’t be difficult. A Molina/Lobaton, SRod/Brignac, Guyer, Fuld, Canzler bench for the playoffs right now would give options late in the game that the team didn’t have last year.
I think you're underrating a lot of the guys there.
Joyce is better than “good but flawed”, S-Rod / Briggy has the potential to be a quite good SS solution, and Upton…well, he’s Upton but he still has his endless potential.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
maybe
when the Rays acquire a DH/1B, I’m sure I’ll go back to being optimistic
What are you guys projecting Jennings to hit?
I’m going with .260/.340/.430, which is nice, but isn’t great.
Given his speed I'd project a better BA
Which should help his other numbers
I put the screw IN THE TUNA!
I'm just afraid that people are going to jump the ship if he doesn't hit at the unrealistic expectations.
His approach altered during the past year, adding power while subtracting some average and K’ing more. I think we will see more of that in 2012.
.270/.350/.445
Something along those lines with 15 HR 40SB
my guess is that a joke prediction
would have a .420 in it somewhere
OK, we acquire both Billy Butler and Matt Adams, and lose ___
This meme definitely has a shelf life to it
by Jason Collette on Dec 29, 2011 11:31 AM EST upreplyactions
So do you.
BOOM. ROASTED!
by SandalsNoPants on Dec 29, 2011 11:32 AM EST upreply Rec Flag
Davis for butler and a couple of c+ prospects for adams
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 5:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Adams put up better Offensive numbers though
However, I did fail to attribute age to my thought process.
wRC+
has it 139 Adams, 120 Rizzo. I think the difference in K% sets them apart. If Adams would only walk just ~3-4% more, he would a be an top level prospect. Even though he would probably have to DH, he would be a desirable target.
I'm assuming FanGraphs.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
People don't realize this, but wRC+ is actually 100+double the deviation from league average
So a wRC+ of 110 is 5% better than league average
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
Even fangraphs' own writing staff doesn't know that most of the time
It’s a little ridiculous
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, not one mention of Juan Miranda
Is it possible Friedman thinks he already has a 1st baseman?
by Ray Bucbolt on Jan 9, 2012 4:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Only if you typed lol...so your safe
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 5:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd rather have Jesus Guzman for scraps
than give up Davis for Gaby Sanchez
Not really his style at all
I can’t imagine AF willing to rely solely on Miranda, Canzler etc. (i.e. the current mix including Joyce) for his 2012 1B. For every DJ, there must be a Kotchman, going way back to Pena and the Korean 1B whose name escapes me at the moment (Choi?)
Canzler/Miranda platoon FTW.
DH problem solved.
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
Miranda career OPS against RH is .705
Not good enough
I'm not entirely serious.
But you’re quoting OPS for a sample size of less than 250 plate appearances.
It’s worthless.
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
by Vin on Jan 9, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
If mariners sign fielder
Would you want the rays to go hard after smoak?
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 5:53 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Going hard as in "at all cost"?
But acquiring him for the right price would be nice.
What about trading one of our better SP for something like (I am not fluent on their farm).
But, Shields/Helly/Price for Smoak, Hultzen, and prospects.
Doubt it
I think they are super high on hultzen and dont think the rays should trade price/shields/helly right now.
I think a better idea would be a couple prospects for smoak or davis/niemann for smoak+
If they sign fielder, maybe they will be too happy to care what they get in return.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 7:10 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
The Rays do not match up well with the Mariners
Their system is pretty loaded with top notch starting prospects to join Felix and Pineda.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/12/9/2619595/seattle-mariners-top-20-prospects-for-2012
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Jan 9, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
The Rays' SP would be major league ready, and less of a risk than Hultzen
They might want to make a 2 year run at a WS, If they sign Fielder, with an aging Ichiro, and Felix’s time running out.
Hultzen isn't very risky (and is a top 15 overall prospect).
It would take Hellickson, and very possibly more. Hultzen is pretty comparable to Hellickson a year or two ago.
They are no where ready to contend
Fielder would be a longterm investment and they will probably trade felix before they contend. With fielder, their window wouldnt be open for at least a couple years from now, when guys like hultzen, ackley, franklin,.and walker are all together.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 10:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree,
But I was just suggesting an outlandish trade, but trades have been made before that make less sense.
I don't think the Rays would be willing to give up that much for Smoak
It doesn’t strike me as a Rays-type move
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
If we dont sign anyone....
I wonder if Vogt jumps into the mix at 1B/Dh. I think maddon would like the idea of having a guy that can catch in a pinch and it may give him the edge over canzler. Any thoughts?
by bvert38 on Jan 9, 2012 6:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Friedman already said hes confident we add 2 bats to lineup
Unless he is referring to an upgrade at catcher (conger) or shortstop (theriot), hes talking about 1B and DH. That makes me think they arent considering in house platoons or position changes (joyce).
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 6:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Nice read
Being new here I’ll tread lightly. All the spec about 1B sharing (Joyce, Guyer, Canzler) doesn’t seem to factor in one HUGE item that has been and will remain paramount with the Rays and that is defense. Kotch is great, Pena is great but these other guys won’t be great and I don’t think the Rays will sacrifice “D” for unknown offense. The Rays infield and pitching staff is used to having a gold glove at first and I don’t think that changes, not even a little. Thoughts?
One trade target with gold glove potential
Ike Davis..too bad might not be available
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 6:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"Kotch is great, Pena is great"
That’s not the case though.
Both are above average but neither is a “great” defensive first baseman. At least not at this stage in their careers.
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
by Vin on Jan 9, 2012 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
First base defense is considered to be somewhat less important because the best defensive first baseman aren't as good as the best defensive players at other positions
I.e. Top 3 1B last season were +11, +11, +9 runs, top 3 2B were +18, +17, +15
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Which would be why Reid will get another shot this year
As bad as his offense was, Joe can’t resist that glove and quick release.
Matt Moore. That is all.
Well, there's a similar situation at SS because teams rarely like to compromise with defense at this position
How many butchers can you name at SS?
by benderbrodriguez on Jan 9, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Felix Fermin
When Seattle traded Omar Vizquel to the Indians for Felix Fermin and $900,000, one of the PI guys quipped that instead of playing Fermin at short, the Mariners would be better off “just stacking the $900,000 between second and third, and seeing how many balls it could stop.”
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
some may suggest
and I mean guys like Weaver, Martin, Lasorda, Anderson, & D.Williams that they all wanted a first baseman who was good defensively (as well as offensively) because it made the rest of the infielders better.
In each one of their books they’ve all given the same sort of tag line and that is….defense at first base may not seem to be as important as the other positions but there has never been a great infield without a great first baseman.
One word about these books. They were all written back in the 80’s and there wasn’t the quick reference to UZR/150 or other metrics to check their first baseman and how the numbers actually stack up to their views.
No?
Kotch’s ‘D’ last year wasn’t GG worthy? I agree Pena’s “D” was slipping, hence a big treason he disappeared, I think.
"Kotch’s ‘D’ last year wasn’t GG worthy?"
Absolutely not. Wasn’t even close to his career best.
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
by Vin on Jan 9, 2012 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
In Maddon's own words
The only drop-off from Pena to Kotchman was Pena was better going back on balls. Other than that, he put their abilities on equal terms during one of the pre-game interviews this year (around August, I think).
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 9, 2012 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
Maddon also said my poop smelled like roses
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 8:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Way to add to the conversation!
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 9, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions
Pshh I thought it was funny
My point being, maddons opinion on someone can be meaningless at times, hes always going to build them up and sell them for more than they are. I would rather look at the numbers or listen to objective analysis.
Im in the boat that kotch had great hands and made all the routine plays, with the occasional great play. However I dont think he is very athletic nor do I think he has above average range. Personally, I loved pena’s range when he was with the rays.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 8:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He's not one to throw useless praise out there
He compared their ability to go side to side, do pick-offs, and charge balls. It was a 2-3 minute conversation about it.
I'm not a fanboy, I'm an awesome dude
by Jason Collette on Jan 9, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
Over the last 4 years with 1st baseman playing at least 3000 innings, the 1st baseman with the highest UZR/150 ratings is Daric Barton(7.9)
He also has the highest range factor of any 1st baseman over that time span.
Last year (thru the end of August)he was 4th in baseball in scoop percentage at 90%(Kotchman was 2nd at 93%) and he was 4th in runs saved per game at 1.4 runs(Kotch and Huff was 1st at 2.1)
Over those 4 years Kotchman is 3rd in UZR/150 at 6.6 and 7th in range factor at 6.5
I have always said that if there is a choice between the two, and they are similar hitters with Barton having a much longer history of having a higher OBP, I would acquire Barton(for minimal if any compensation) and for a lot less than Kotch would have to be signed(including a likely 2nd year as well).
If you like your 1B to have some pop, you will love Daric Barton.
(You will not love Daric Barton)
@RealNolenBailey
Conversely
Maddon rarely focuses on a players flaws. He’s much more likely to talk about what a player does well. Just like what you described, kotch was incredibly fundementaly sound defensively. Maybe we have just been spoiled, but I miss the insanely athletic plays pena used to make. Defensively I would take pena every day.
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 9:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn't..... at least not anymore.
Pena did lead baseball in scoops last season but was also among the leaders in mishandled balls too.
Yeah, this.
He flashed some range on rare occasions, but for the most part he didn’t move much. Excellent on scoops and throws, though.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Jan 9, 2012 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
1.000 fielding %
I'll make out with a guy if he knocks it in
by Jason Collette on Jun 11, 2011 9:00 PM CDT
(Kotchman knocked it in)
by Vin on Jan 9, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
Matt Joyce
will most likely get his feet wet at 1b and become familiar with the position. Maddon did the same with Ben Zobrist last ST:
Dan Johnson currently looks like he’ll get the majority of starts at first base, but Casey Kotchman is still an option, and Maddon wants to see utility man Ben Zobrist play a lot more at first base in order to have him feel more comfortable playing the position once the season begins.
It's the break in case of emergency situation
Zobrist was never going to be our 1B and neither will Joyce. Just having him practice it in case an injury or 2 strikes.
Matt Moore. That is all.
I wouldn't say never
I am against moving Joyce to 1b and don’t think he will see much time there in 2012 but on the other hand guys have made a case of how much of a benefit getting him time there in 2012 could be.
I think it’s worthwhile to keep an open mind on the subject.
also, Zobrist looked terrible at 1B
I’m sure Zobrist could learn to play the position, but it looked like it was going to be a huge learning curve.
I think Derrek Lee is probabaly still under consideration as an option as 1st/DH sign
He can still field above average and brings a solid RH bat to the table. Experience, 19 HR’s and could be a flexible choice for Maddon if used in both spots along with a LH’ed partner.
He looked rather helpless against AL pitching though and didn't wake up until he got back in the NL
I’d bring him in at nothing more than about 3 mil.
by Peter Piontek on Jan 9, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
I worry about d lee making the transition to the AL
by BossmanJunior333 on Jan 9, 2012 10:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think his .246/.302/.404 line in Baltimore validates those worries
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
not a big Pena believer for the same reason
Billy Butler or Luke Scott at DH, Joyce to 1B, sign a complementary bat.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
More and more people are jumping on the Butler bandwagon and I still don't understand why
But maybe as Friedman does, you guys are seeing something I’m not. I will give him one thing, his power potential is much higher than Damon. I don’t want Scott, he can’t hit lefties, he’s coming off injury and the amount of teams interested make him expensive.
Matt Moore. That is all.
Ok random prediction with no backing from the guy no one here ever believes
Tomorrow (yeah it’s a little passed mid night but I do mean January 10th), Wade Davis will be traded.
Matt Moore. That is all.
Rizzotti
I don’t know how well we really match up with the Phils but I would like to see about getting Matt Rizzotti. Howard is blocking 1B for what 5-6 more years. Rizzottis is 25 and has mashed at about every level.
nice find
sort of a Clint Robinson type. I can’t imagine he’d be particularly expensive, and is certainly worth a flyer.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Rays may be be able to improve with signing both Lee and Scott
Lee gives you a solid bat at first with above average defense and Scott may rebound to have a strong year with 25+ HR’s as the DH. They could both interchange on some days at first base and DH as well. You probably could sign both on one year deals for about 3-4 million each keeping the Rays within 60 million.
You would then have the ability to move Neimann or Davis for a nice package of a young almost ready 1st baseman and/or catcher with maybe a young couple of talented arms thrown in as well. It wouldn’t be much different than the signing of Damon/Manny late last winter.
Lee looked absolutely terrible with Baltimore last season
.246/.302/.404, and he looked worse than that at the plate. Do not want.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
But his numbers were good enough overall and he still projects as a solid player
14 on weighted runs created as a replacement (as good as Pena, much better than Kotchman). Struggling with O’s in the AL East for 1/2 a season doesn’t mean he’s done. He fits the Rays needs on several levels(especially in tandem with a Scott signing) and is at least a good an option as there seems to be right now and the cost would fit the payroll.
The type of “complimentary” acquisition AF may be talking about.
I don't buy his garbage-time numbers with the Pirates facing the dreck of the National League
if you think it was a 364-plate-appearance fluke, I can understand why you’d want to take a chance on him. But for me — and I watch a lot of Orioles games — he looked absolutely done at the plate.
Since I think Lee is ticketed for a sub-.700 OPS if he lands in Tropicana Field, I’d rather just move Joyce to 1B and give RF to Guyer (spotted by Fuld). I’m higher on Guyer than most, I guess, but I think even his detractors expect him to put up at least a .700 OPS.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 10, 2012 10:59 PM EST up reply actions
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