Rays and Expectations

J. Meric - Getty Images

The Rays were predicted by many to make the post-season, some to win the American League, and even one or two to win the World Series. Obviously, none of that happened. Fingers can be pointed at Longoria's hamstring, free agent hitters, lack of trades, or underperformances by key players. Rather than furthering the game of what could have been, let's look at how players performed against their pre-season projections.

It is safe to assume that most of us are not in the mood to read much today, so this will be kept to a couple of visuals to help spark discussion.

I gathered the ZiPS projections from Fangraphs for all hitters and pitchers that saw 50 or more plate appearances or 20 innings pitched and compared those projections to each player's final wOBA or ERA. According to the Fangraphs Library (nice work, Slowinski), ZiPS "uses weighted averages of four years of data, regresses pitcher based on DIPS theory and BABIP rates, and adjusts for aging by looking at similar players and their aging trends."

Here are two separate graphs showing how each group performed against projected expectations in 2012:

Hitters_medium

Pitchers_medium

The hitting side graph shows that Jeff Keppinger was truly the only overachiever on the offense while Ben Zobrist was the only primary hitter who exceeded his projections. Meanwhile, both Carlos Pena and Sean Rodriguez underperformed at a rate comparable to Keppinger.

The pitching highlights the success of the team as four of the six starting pitchers exceeded projections while Matt Moore nailed his 3.81 ZiPS ERA to the dot. Kyle Farnsworth and Alex Cobb were the only pitchers to fail to reach their projections but each were coming off injuries that ended their 2011 seasons.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker