Take A Moment To Rosterbate
As the off season draws to a close and the date for pitchers and catchers reporting is in sight, i thought a fun inter-active thread would be to look at the 25 man Rays roster that comes north this spring.
The pitching staff is going to have a rotation of five (Price, Shields, Hellickson, Moore and Davis). I see Jeff Niemann as the one being traded. The bullpen will feature Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, JP Howell, Jake McGee and probably Burke Badenhop. So it appears one possibly two bullpen spots are open.
As for our position players Carlos Pena, Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, BJ Upton, Matt Joyce, Sam Fuld, Luke Scott, Jose Molina and Jeff Keppinger all have secure spots on the roster. That leaves two open spots, one of course being another catcher.
I thought this could be a good thread to throw out some ideas, yes i know it's been done before, as spring training approaches to see how DRB would handle the open spots and the probable trade.
Go ahead, let's rosterbate.
This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.
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Is JoeyBW awake?
#Joeybait
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
he's gone forever hopefully.
got way too bent out have shape over the grammar thing
9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Maybe if the mods would protect the users better.
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
No regret from me
I warned him twice FFS, and the ban was for 5 minutes. I figured he’d be fine after a nap
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 2, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Rosterbation is how we stay young
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=1BcKaZVqNx8
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 12:29 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Link fail
Pretty funny though
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
now I think we will make a trade during ST or before but as of the roster today
SP- Price, Shields, Helly, Moore, Niemann
RP- Farnsworth, Peralta, Gomes, Mcgee, Howell, Davis, Badenhop
C- Molina, Lobaton
1B- Pena, Keppinger
2B- Zobrist, Rodriguez
SS- Brignac,
3B- Longoria
LF- Jennings, Fuld
CF- Upton
RF- Joyce
UTL- Johnson
on what planet do you see Keppinger platooning with Pena?
that’s awful.
9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
by pudieron89 on Feb 1, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Kep at 2nd with Zobrist in RF?
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I would be pretty suprised to see Joe trot out a defense with Srod at SS and Kepp at 2B
that is just not very good up the middle and that seems to be a focus point.
2nd is Keps primary position and we hope his bat would make up for his average defense
Plus that would be max 30% of of games, more like 10-15%
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:45 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I have no problem with Kepp at 2B if Brignac is at SS
but Rodriguez wasn’t very good at SS last year, so if you put below average/average guys at SS and 2B that brings down the D quite a bit and combined they don’t hit well enough to overcome their defensive downfalls as a tandem. I’m not saying it should never happen, but I wouldn’t like to see it as a strict platoon against all LHP.
Maybe it depends on our starting pitchers gb% tendencies that day
Kep certainly wasnt signed to just dh and ph
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think he makes it as the roster is set up right now
now if we trade a SP, than he gets the last bullpen spot. I don’t think he can/will beat out Badenhop.
how the hell would he not make the team?
you think they just signed him to a MLB contract to waive him before the start of the season?
if he isn't one of the top 7 relievers than I could see it happening
it wouldn’t be a typical AF move but I think they are going to put the best product on the field (at least I hope)
why is it retarted, do u think AF would be too proud to admit to making a mistake giving him a ML contract
He cant afford to waste resourses
Either keep both or risk losing an asset
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If davis is the pen
I assume gomes might be the odd man out
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'm pretty high on Gomes but I think he is our 3rd of 4th best reliever behind Farns, Peralta, and maybe Mcgee
I agree
If davis/niemann is in the pen, the only reason gomes would be the odd man out is options and hopper, howell and rodney are making guarenteed money >1 mil
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
just realized I forgot Luke Scott
I knew I originally didn’t think EJ would make the team so take him off, although he could beat out Keppinger with a good spring.
no he really couldn't
9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
2 random ideas
Niemann for Wilin Rosario and Tim Wheeler
Alex Colome for Nick Hundley
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Castro for Fleming and Cobb
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
Castro>Hundley
Especially considering Hundley only has two years left compared to castros four.
Wouldnt cobb likely be at least a B+ if he had prospect standing
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 4:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Your right
I was thinking of soto
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 5:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It's his right to correct me
Thus “your right (to correct me)”
It’s implied :)
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 6:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Mr maniac
Would you rank Cobb as a B+, borderline A-?
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 10:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
If he pitched 3 less innings?
Yeah, that sounds about right. The injury doesn’t appear to be serious, so that seems a fair ranking. A Hellickson-lite in terms of prospect value.
Agreed
And hellickson was an A, so B+/A- seems about right. Id rank him 3rd behind Lee
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 11:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
A- seems generous given that his stuff doesn't impress most scouts
B-B+ seems more like what he’d get
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 2, 2012 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
Ehh... how far is it behind Hellickson's?
Hellickson has a little better of a changeup, but they really are not too far apart stuff wise.
I feel like helly still has a leg up in command even though he didnt show it last season
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 2, 2012 2:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hellickson had great command last year
just dealt with a tight strike zone seemingly all year long, which led to some tough counts and a lot of seemingly “unintentional intentional” walks.
Ahem.
http://www.draysbay.com/2011/10/25/2513964/was-hellickson-not-getting-the-calls
Hellickson really didn’t have great command last year, unless he intentionally was trying to walk too many batters.
As I showed early last year he was walking the right kinds of batters
http://tbbuzz.com/2011/05/walkin-the-tightrope/
I’m going to update this through the entire season and see if that holds up
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 3, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Here are the wOBA figures for each outcome
Name BB SO HR
Hellickson 0.352 0.317 0.349
Shields 0.332 0.321 0.326
Davis 0.328 0.316 0.350
Niemann 0.346 0.322 0.351
Price 0.357 0.332 0.387
So the guys that Helly walked had an average wOBA of .352 against righties which just slightly trailed Price’s .357 average wOBA for the batters he walked versus lefties. This shows that Hellickson walked the “right” kinds of batters while Davis was the worst in this regard. Helly and Davis both feasted on the poorest hitters when it came to striking guys out. Shields allowed homers to the weakest batters of the bunch while you had to be a really good hitter if you thought you were going to get one out off Price.
The samples aren’t big enough to say this is absolute, but it’s encouraging to see the context of walks, strikeouts, and homers. I don’t fault a guy as much for pitching around a strong bat and I really like seeing Price’s ability to K even above average hitters.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
I'm not saying it's predictive, but when you point to Helly walking too many batters then you should at least examine whom he walked
I have no problem with him walking Adrian Gonzalez type hitters that mash righties.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
But do we know it was design?
For all we know, it could have been random and he wasn’t intentionally walking good hitters. The results are nice, but I don’t know about the process.
This is what actually happened. There is no reason to get into whether it was intentional or not, this actually happened
Whether he’s purposely doing it or not is not relevant.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Scouts love Hellickson, not Cobb though
I don’t know why but that’s what they say.
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 2, 2012 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
Pre 2011 or this past season?
Im not sure what there wasnt to like about cobb in 2011
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 2, 2012 11:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Hellickson looks meaner.
The problem is, 2011 was a pretty revealing year for Cobb. And I just didn’t see many scouting reports on him.
Then again, we are using the same scouting reports that say he had bad command.
I expect some good prospect insight from you
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 9:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Neimann for Hundley would be pretty fair.
Make it Davis and the Rays should be able to get something else back from the Padres, IMO.
Davis for hundley and decker?
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 10:21 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Really?
6 years of davis for 3 years of hundley? I was thinking at least a B or C+ prospect in addition
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 11:15 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
my stab:
C: Molina
1B: Pena
2B: Zobrist
SS: Brignac
3B: Longo
LF: Jennings
CF: Upton
RF: Joyce
DH: Scott
C: Lobaton
UTIL: S-Rod
UTIL: Keppinger
4OF: Fuld
SP: Price, Shields, Helly, Niemann/Davis, Moore
RP: Farns, Peralta, Howell, McGee, Rodney, Badenhop, Gomes
One of Davis/Niemann gets traded. Otherwise move one of them to the pen or Moore to the minors.
This
Unless Brignac can fix his swing (which I hope he does) its a platoon or srod full time
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Goodness, that bullpen gives me shivers.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Feb 2, 2012 9:18 AM EST up reply actions
We always talk about how 2-3 elite arms are better than a bunch of good ones.
The thing is we have a bunch of good ones that have chances to be borderline elite. With the variability of relief arms, I really like this setup because acquiring those “elite” rps is expensive.
Yeah, I like it too. Lots of upside in this 'pen.
Of course it could also potentially implode, but I think there’s enough stability there to make it manageable even if Rodney and Howell are crap.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Feb 2, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
this is exactly correct (except that Molina won't be a starter)
and think about the depth:
C Chirinos, Vogt
1B Miranda
2B Rhymes, Figueroa
SS Beckham, E. Johnson (if he clears waivers)
3B Mangini
OF Guyer, Vogt
SP Cobb, Torres, Archer
RP Lueke, de la Rosa, Ramos, Bush
by AndrewTorrez on Feb 2, 2012 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
My exact 25-man list.
Reliant on Niemann or Davis getting trade before the season starts. If this doesn’t happen, Davis goes in the pen for the start of the year and Gomes is sent down as the odd man out due to availability of an option. Badenhop has an option, but he’s more valuable on the roster compared to Gomes right now.
How nice is it knowing we could have lueke, ramos, de la rosa, archer, torres, fleming etc waiting in durham
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 2:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
You could've made this joke a lottt better if you'd planned it right :\
i.e. " ‘too bad we’re just going to let rodney walk the other team’ FTFY"
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 2, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
I'll trust in Friedman on this Rodney signing
Much of his bad stats are because he closed games, and when he was bad managers left him out to hang. This won’t be the case now as Joe will use him where he can be effective and when he’s in trouble, he’ll bail him out
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Uhhh
1) Closing is harder?
2) So we’re going to go let him make messes our good relievers have to bail him out of
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 2, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
i think he meant that managers before were using rodney in the closer role, so they were more willing to give him a long leash.
as such, when he didnt have his best stuff his manager would leave him out there “to keep his confidence” rather than giving him the quick hook.
Im still suprised by the lack of trade rosterbating
I guess thats expected when our little joey leaves
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 3:27 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I agree, and i have to believe the SP trade chip is with a catcher in mind
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I agree
At this point soto, hundley, suzuki, torrealba, hanigan, and flores seem like options. Suzuki doesnt really intetest me.
Prospects that interest me are rosario, bethancourt, and norris. The A’s and giants have a pair of nice catching prospects.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 5:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Are you guys more on board for a bat with the 25th man or an xtra INF like Brignac?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
However, if an injury happens Zobrist could slide there for a game and Brignac or Beckham could be easily called up in 24 hours
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I think MLBDC's projection is pretty accurate.
Starting Lineup
1 LF Desmond Jennings
2 CF B.J. Upton
3 3B Evan Longoria
4 1B Carlos Peña*
5 2B Ben Zobrist**
6 RF Matt Joyce*
7 DH Luke Scott* +
8 SS Sean Rodriguez
9 C Jose Molina
Bench
C Jose Lobaton**
SS Reid Brignac*
IF Jeff Keppinger
OF Sam Fuld*
Starting Rotation
1 LHP David Price
2 RHP James Shields
3 RHP Jeremy Hellickson
4 LHP Matt Moore
5 RHP Wade Davis
Bullpen
CL RHP Kyle Farnsworth
SU RHP Joel Peralta
SU LHP Jake McGee
MID RHP Jeff Niemann
MID RHP Fernando Rodney
MID LHP J.P. Howell
LR RHP Burke Badenhop
I think Gomes takes the spot vacated by Niems/Davis, but I don’t see that trade happening until we’re at least a couple of weeks into ST.
I dont remember friedman ever making a big ST trade
That’s why I think it will get done before then. Maybe the sooner ST approaches, the more pressure it will put on other clubs to pull the trigger.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 6:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe for niemann
But I think the market for a 10 million dollar veteran pitcher might not be the same as the market for cheap team controlled young pitchers. Jackson will likely go to a contending team, niemann/davis to a rebuilding team or a team with limited resources.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 1, 2012 6:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah.
How the heck can a team give up Peacock, Cole, and Norris for Gio and yet no one wants to sign two quality starters in Oswalt and Jackson?
Yeah, this looks really solid.
The only thing is that the bench looks pathetic (offensively, at least). But not much that can be done about that, I guess.
I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.
Follow @steveslow
by Steve Slowinski on Feb 2, 2012 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
I'm guessing
Starting Lineup RHP
1 LF Desmond Jennings
2 CF B.J. Upton
3 3B Evan Longoria
4 1B Carlos Peña
5 2B Ben Zobrist
6 RF Matt Joyce
7 DH Luke Scott
8 C Jose Molina
9 SS Sean Rodriguez
Strating lineup LHP?
1. Dez
2. B.J
3. Evan
4. Pena
5. S-Rod
6. Zobrist RF
7. Scott
8. Molina
9. Kepp-daddy 2B
Rotation
1 LHP David Price
2 RHP James Shields
3 RHP Jeremy Hellickson
4 RHP Jeff Niemann
5 LHP Matt Moore
Against LHP i like Kepp at 2nd mainly because it would give us Joyce on the bench for a late innings bat. Also i dont think there is anyway Moore will start anywhere else in the rotation besides the 5 spot. plus i like the two lefties back to back
Brignac is your shortstop versus righthanders
vs. R: LF Jennings / CF Upton / 3B Longoria / RF Joyce / 2B Zobrist / 1B Pena / DH Scott / C Lobaton-Chirinos / SS Brignac
vs. L: LF Jennings / CF Upton / 3B Longoria / 2B Zobrist / SS S-Rod / 1B Pena / DH Scott / RF Joyce / C Molina
I think there will be some Keppinger rotating in there vs. lefties, but I think Joyce is an everyday outfielder in 2012.
by AndrewTorrez on Feb 2, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
For those thinking Joe will platoon at 1B and SS might be in for adissapointment
Pena will play about every day, but will be rested against a few LHP
Sean Rod will get every chance to be the regular SS only getting days off against the really tough match up, that is at least until he proves he can’t do it
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
.192/.280/.286
that’s what S-Rod hit versus right-handers, last year, when given an expanded chance to play. For his career, he’s a .212/.278/.337 hitter against them.
Even counting his cover-your-eyes-awful 2011, Brignac is a career .244/.281/.351 hitter versus right-handers — that’s better than S-Rod — and (1) he plays significantly better defense, and (2) has some reasons to suggest that 2011 was not indicative of his true talent level.
I’ll stand by my prediction: Brignac is going to get at least 250 more PA — until sometime in June at the earliest — to prove that he can handle major-league RHP. There is simply too much potential there for the Rays to just give up after a bad half-season.
by AndrewTorrez on Feb 2, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
Sean Rod is still a probable 700 OPS at SS
and when the other bangers in the line up do their job, that’s fine
also, while it’s difficult to quantify, Sean made great strides last year haning in there and having much better ABs as the year progressed v RHP. He wasn’t the 1-2-3 K he was early on and last season. I think he’ll do fine
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
there's absolutely nothing in Rodriguez's history
to indicate that he can be a 700 OPS bat versus major-league righthanders.
On the other hand, you know who had a .706 OPS versus righties in 2010? Yep — Reid Brignac.
reading comprehension isn't a skill i see
i’m saying Sean Rod is a probable 700 OPS at SS facing a combined LHP and RGP
and how do you so flippantly disregard Brignac’s ‘11 season in favor of his ’10? Didn’t he get the starting nod at SS in ’11 and fail horribly?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Feb 2, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The point stands that a Brignac/Rodriguez platoon would be superior to just Rodriguez
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 2, 2012 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
Josh Hamilton could be on the OD roster
by Ben Tumbling on Feb 3, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Right I mean whether the advantage of a Brigs/Rod platoon over just Roddy is worth a roster spot is another question entirely
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 3, 2012 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
now you're thinking--i mean
why sign Keppinger if your intention is to also keep Brignac? and what makes Kepp any different than Aviles or Nunez, BOS and NYY back up mid inf?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
kepp's the best hitter of the bunch.
nunez is pretty terrible. avilas is decent. i dont really see what the sawx and yanks utility infielder has to do with the rays, though.
the last 3 years at least the rays have always carried 4 infielders. i dont see why that changes. there isnt a bat worth carrying when you look at the makeup of the team. a defensive IF adds a lot more value than a bench bat. id be shocked if briggy doesnt start on the big team if he’s still a ray.
A defensive IF'er is worth it...if that player is solid defensively.
Keppinger is just adequate at all the positions he plays but SS defense is not one of them. That is where it seems the Rays needed to shore up(at least defensively) to create the flexibility to do something with Brignac(send down or trade) if the situation arose.
I still believe they need a power bat off the bench and it may still be possible if they don’t keep Fuld on the roster. With Upton and Jennings, Fuld is most likely only a RF sub for Joyce at times but Zobrist/Rodriguez could take that role( with Keppinger around). If Fuld is just going to pinch run and get an occasional PH’ing spot, he may be expendable. Tha could open up a spot for a back-up 1st base/DH platoon/COF’er bench player.
what you guys are not seeing or maybe i'm missing is
i think all signs point to the Rays making Sean Rod their every day SS. i think they’ve had conversation with him along those lines and are basically telling him it’s his job to lose
why sign Kepp if all you’re looking for is a RH bat? if their intentions were always to keep Briggy there is no need for Kepp
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
The only reasoning that makes sense is not that the Rays are concerned about SS but maybe it's Joyce hitting against lefties in RF.
The only RF option basically is Zobrist, so if Joyce struggles against LH’ers, Zobrist plays RF, S-Rod plays SS and Keppinger plays 2nd.
If Brignac remains and holds his own full time, S-Rod and Keppinger become the platoons for 2nd base(when/if Zobrist has to take over for Joyce in RF). That being the case, Keppinger is redundant to S-Rod and I would rather have a more power hitting bench player(a RH’ed bat) who could platoon for the Rays lefty DH’s as well as be able to back-up 1st base(and sit Pena against tough lefties) and play some COF as well.
you're making this far more complicated--think SRod is our SS and it's very easy
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I wish I could go along with your confidence Stern
And I would like S-Rod to be able to play full time because I think he can be a very productive hitter(have always thought that). But I have much less confidence that he can handle SS in the way the Rays have been accustomed to and what has become a staple of their success…up the middle defense.
as big a fan as i was of Jason Bartlett he really wasn't all that great at SS, and the Rays
handed him the job for three years
is SRod at least capable of Bartlett? i say yes and more because he’s so athletic
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
He was when we acquired him
His defense declined here, no question
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 5, 2012 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
Bartlett was always a guy who didn't have great range but made most of the plays he got to
In fact he was(and still is) league average in range factor. S-Rod will have to develop his skills not only in covering the position(he was well below last year league average in his first extended play at SS) but being able to make all the throws. His arm should be strong enough but it is far different to learn SS coming from 2nd than the other way around. Only the SS pivot is easier.
Not saying he can’t do it but the transition is not as easy as many make it out to be.
Bartlett was always a guy who didn't have great range but made most of the plays he got to
that’s like the opposite of what he was.
Disagree
His range factor went down during the time he was a Ray but so did his errors(for the most part). His UZR/150 went down with the Rays but mostly again because of his decreased range.
The eye test remembrance(as a Ray) was mostly if he got to the ball he made the play. Even in his last year in 2010, he only made 11 errors but his range was so bad it brought his UZR/150 # way down.
theres no doubt his range declined in his time here.
in fact, his range runs went from +10 the three eyars prior to him getting here to +3, +2, and then -9 his last year (largely due to back injuries). for his career he’s still +33 in range runs and -6 in error runs.
Tommy agrees with me
http://www.espnflorida.com/insider-sean-rodriguez-as-rays-2012-shortstop/
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
If we were talking about the Rays signing
Betancourt to start at shortstop, I could understand all the tumult over the move. But as Keppinger is essentially the 25th man on the roster, the issue is far more simple it seems.
From the right side, the Rays have 5 potentially good to outstanding hitters: Sean Rodriguez, Upton, Jennings, Zobrist and Longoria. They have anywhere from potentially decent power to excellent power. And all of them struck out last season at least 16% of the time against lefties and righties, some as often as 23-26.7% of the time even against lefties.
From the left side, the Rays have 4 good to excellent hitters, all with power: Zobrist, Joyce, Scott and Pena. Zobrist Ked over 23% of the time vs. lefties and the other three were all over 30% last year.
On the bench are the second catcher, probably 2 weak hitting lefties and the last spot which is Keppinger who rarely strikes out. He is almost certainly there not just for infield depth but for use as a situational hitter who can make contact. Even against righties last year he Ked just 6.6% of the time, and just 4.2% vs lefties. Surely we can recognize that is a useful skill. Even Fuld Ked 13.8% of the time vs. righties.
Among Maddon’s skills is the ability to put players in the best position to contribute. He knows Keppinger’s weaknesses, but he may be able to use his strengths, no matter how narrow, to help the team win some games. And the Rays may think they have enough power and high BB/OBP players on the team to welcome the luxury of a player with an entirely different if very limited skill set.
Calling Kepp, a FA the Rays paid over $1.5mil to the '25th' man on the roster is frivilous on your part
IMO, the 25th man will be a bat, a late inning PH who at times can go in and play a position when asked. A player who might get 200-250 PA, a player who might sign a minor deal with an invite, Maggs, Chavez, that type of player
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
+1..almost
Keppinger would make a good 25th man. I just think the Rays need a #1 bat off the bench. A guy with power, who can hit and can , like you say, get plenty of AB’s(even if it were DH’ing) and could add flexibility by playing the field. And Ordenez has always been my choice as the full time DH/RF’er(if he proved healthy). At this point, it seems the Rays will have to move either Brignac or Fuld to open up a spot for another hitter and I’m not sure that will happen.
Against lefties they'll have Joyce and maybe occasionally Scott on the bench, against righties, you'll probably see Roddy sitting on occasion
And Keppinger off the bench.
vLHSP
Joyce, Fuld, Fat Catcher, Brignac
vRHSP
Keppinger, Fuld, Fat Catcher, Rodriguez
I think there’s a very strong case for Brignac to start the season in AAA, but as of right now we don’t have a better alternative.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Your description is exactly what Keppinger will be asked to do
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
very good is a little too strong for me
decent seems more likely.
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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 5, 2012 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t know how we’re defining decent or very good, but here are the numbers.
From 2009-2011, minimum of 300 plate appearance
Here is the class Keppinger keeps against left-handed pitching, via wOBA:
Previous 10:
Jacoby Ellsbury .350
Brandon Inge .349
Jay Bruce .349
Chipper Jones .349
Rajai Davis .349
Juan Pierre .348
Alexei Ramirez .348
Freddy Sanchez .348
Jason Bartlett .348
Dan Uggla .346
Keppinger .345
Next 10:
Luke Scott .345
Marco Scutaro .344
Johnny Damon .344
Yunel Escobar .344
Franklin Gutierrez .343
Alfonso Soriano .342
Matt Wieters .342
Pablo Sandoval .342
Miguel Tejada .341
Vladimir Guerrero .341
If we limit this to second basemen, then Keppiner ranks 14th, just ahead of Martin Prado, Howie Kendrick, and Brian Roberts, just behind Dan Uggla (again), Freddy Sanchez, and Kelly Johnson. The Rays are a bit spoiled with second basemen who can hit lefties, though, as Zobrist ranks fourth (behind Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler, and Chase Utley), and Sean Rodriguez ranks ninth (behind Dustin Pedroia, Jeff Baker, Robinson Cano, and Ryan Roberts, and just ahead of Brandon Phillips, Kelly Johnson, and the aforementioned Sanchez).
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 5, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Just to be fair though, Keppingers advanced numbers against lefties have come down over the past three seasons from what they were in his first four seasons
May be some injury issues and may be some regression but there is a bit of a trend. A new league may effect production but if used properly, he should be useful to the Rays.
The numbers I posted are from 2009-2011 only, so his first four years aren't included.
Your other points are valid.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 5, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Ian and I both found him having around a .350 wOBA against lefties based on regressed platoon splits
That’s pretty dang solid
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
1.5M isn't that much
It’s less than what the average Rays ML player makes, and that’s saying something
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 4, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
We must be talking at cross purposes.
It seems my point is very much in line with yours, that Keppinger will be used as a late inning PH and at times play a position. If you mean he is not the 25th man but the 24th with Brignac going down and another bigger hitter coming in, I don’t disagree, although I think the Rays want Brignac for his glove should they have to pinch hit for Sean Rodriguez against a RH reliever or even start Reid vs. righties should his bat show some progress or Sean continue to struggle vs them.
Although I really like him, I am less convinced than some that Rodriguez is satisfactory at SS for the Rays, nor do I think they are satisfied with E. Johnson as a utility player. If I am right, and if Brignac shows some progress in the spring, I think he stays on the roster. But it certainly is possible that he is sent down, in which case Keppinger is still on the bench. Whether he is identified as #25 or not seems irrelevant to the point. I just don’t think the argument over his acquisition is terribly meaningful, that 25th or not he is simply a reserve, and those who oppose it are, in my view, making the error of focusing on what he can’t do rather than what he can do.
This is where we disagree. I feel SRod can and will
be a fine every day SS and eliminate the need for either Brignac or Johnson on the team. I don’t see Keppinger as strictly a late inning replacement, in fact i don’t see that as his role at all. He will get the start at 2B vs many LHP and occasionally a start at SS vs some tough RHP. He’ll get 350-400 PA
As for SRod not being adequate as a SS, let’s remember that we went to the WS in ’08 with Jason Bartlett there who many here feel was average at best. Are we saying SRod cannot be at least as good as him?
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We are still not talking about the same thing.
I should not have added the point about Sean’s capacity as a SS as it seems to have muddied the focus. My point simply is that the Keppinger signing makes sense given the skill set he has, that Maddon will use him both for PH, and as a reserve infielder. Whether that is to start at 2B vs. many LH pitchers or in some other role is not my point. Nor does it matter whether you want to label him as the 25th man or something else. My response is to those who seem upset he was signed at all. I think there is sound logic behind the signing.
I don’t think the comparison to Bartlett is at all relevant. First, when Bartlett was acquired it was because of the horrid SS play of the 2007 Rays shortstops. He was a significant upgrade defensively, and in 2008 was considered pretty good there. It appears his defense declined over the next 2 years which is probably why the Rays were willing to trade him. (Fangraphs has him as + in 2008 but minus in 2009-10.) In other words, while I am not convinced Rodriguez can match Bartlett’s 2008 defense, I imagine he can do as well as (maybe better) than 2010 Bartlett, which is when the Rays decided to trade Jason.
If you object to the labeling, call him something else. Bench player, reserve, semi-platoon, utility, backup. The point is that obsessing over signing a player intended for a secondary role on this team is to overlook why he might provide value. Don’t we agree about that?
As for Brignac, I do think the Rays like his defense and hope his bat improves enough to make him useful. In instances when one of the LH hitters needs to be replaced or in any number of other circumstances when they want to protect a lead, I think they would be more comfortable with Brignac at SS than with Keppinger, Zobrist or even Rodriguez. Of course, Brignac is vulnerable, but on a team that values defense the way the Rays do, having a plus defender, even if only on the bench, might be more appealing than another RH bat on the bench. And the Rays might be concerned not so much over Sean’s defense but Keppinger’s should they have to expose Jeff in the field too much.
exactly.
keppinger is the new wily aybar. just becausehe looks like a MIF and has played ss, it doesnt mean he’ll be used that way. for his career he’s been very, very good against lhp. think of it like 2010 rays with s-rod playing the bartlett role, kepp playing the aybar role (who actually made almost the exact amount of money as kepp), and briggy doing what he did then (starting against some rhp).
The debate doesn't seem to be as much that Keppinger was signed for whatever his role will be but that it doesn't seem to have added the big bat OFF THE BENCH that many were hoping for.
The Kepp signing would not be panned as much if the Rays could have also added a power bat and as of now it looks like that Kepp took that last spot(and desire by many) away. If AF could still find a way to add one more bench player(aside from maybe upgrading catcher which is a separate issue), most here would be much more confident going into the season.
Again, the only way I see that happening, is if Brignac goes back down(or is traded) of if Fuld is dropped from the 25 as well.
But the Rays added 2 power bats
in Pena and Scott. And they probably expect Jennings to add more value than he did in his partial season of 2011.
You are right that they did not add a power bat for the bench, but again, I think that was because they see the starters as providing adequate power but want a contact hitter on the bench.
Correct but more power not only for the bench but moreso a guy who would ALSO be able to platoon ....
…in the field(and to DH) for the three lefties that concern me the most in this line-up against lefties…Joyce, Scott and Pena. Basically cover several scenarios with one guy and it would have to be a RH’ed bat.
Since this thread has drifted into a Brignac vs a bat as the 25th man
on the roster let me summarize my many posts in one.
My feeling is the Rays have decided to make Sean Rodriguez the regular SS. It’s his job to lose. This is partly why Jeff Keppinger was added and not another RH bat. He will now start some games at 2B vs LHP when Ben Zobrist trots out to RF and also play some games at SS to rest SeanRod vs the game’s better RHP. If the Rays intent was to keep Brignac, why sign Kepp at all? I mean if that were the case Sean Rod would resume his role as a 2B vs LHP and also at SS vs them.
My conclusion is the 25th spot will be a bat, probably a RH one who will get 150-200 PA as a PH late in games but who can come in and play a position. This is a Magglio Ordonez type i’m hoping for.
Now come Junme, this could all blow up in the Rays face if Sean Rod fails as an every day SS. Then you may still have Brignac at DUR or of course Tim Beckham down there.
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I could be wrong but I don`t think the Rays have given up on Brignac.
Kepp was signed to play 2B vs. LHP and as a PH. S Rod will play short vs. all LHP and Zobrist to RF. Brignac will get most of the AB vs. RHP unless he repeats last seasons dreadful performance.
by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Feb 5, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
In that scenario, Joyce is out as the RF'er against lefties.
Which brings me back to the point that how Joyce fairs against lefties could be just as much a part of this equation as SS itself. And to some extent how Scott handles lefties as well(as the everyday DH).
MrNegative1 put together a thread a week ago or so
detailing the run displacement of the 2011 Rays, and what i found startling was the 53 games in which they scored 2 runs or less, and won but 7 times. Every effort this off season has been made to correct that and bring it down to a more reasonable 25-30, and a bat vs Reid Brignac is just another piece of the puzzle
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Which has been my concern with this offense.
The real picture sometimes gets obscured when one looks at the final numbers. You can talk all the “total” runs scored or “total” advanced numbers you want but the Rays offense struggled almost 1/3 of the entire season scoring more than 2 runs. And there were long, consistent spans that the offense failed to show up last year. And while the team is based on pitching and defense, that is not a guarantee to hold up for another season.
And while adding bats like Pena and Scott should theoretically help because of more power, that could easily be offset by the high KO rates and struggles versus lefties. The balance between offense/defense that AF has talked about is a new approach as well and brings some uncertainty.
I agree that some steps have been made to correct the deficiencies but, I too, also feel that there is still some moves that should be made to improve the roster.
I'd be surprised if Brignac isn't moved.
Danny Knobler wrote this in December:
— The Rays are open to trading Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis in their quest to improve their offense, but have told teams that they would only listen to overwhelming offers for James Shields. The Rays would also like to trade Reid Brignac, would still like to upgrade their catching, and are once again willing to talk about dealing B.J. Upton.
Granted, much has changed in the two months since. Still, Knobler didn’t include that to get hits, and it more than passes the smell test. As you mentioned, Keppinger is probably the second baseman against lefties, leaving Rodriguez at shortstop, where he can play daily.Add in the recent rumblings that the Rays might add a righty bat via trade, and Brignac might not even have a bench spot.*
I do not consider Brignac or Fuld to be a realistic question. Without going all Collette on everyone, I did some bench player analysis for the BPro annual and Fuld ranked highly across the league. It does not appear to be a WARP-only infatuation, either.
They’ve added added a third baseman (Matt Mangini), second baseman (Will Rhymes), and first baseman (Juan Miranda) for Durham already. Factor in Tim Beckham and maybe Cole Figueroa, and I’m not seeing much playing time for Brignac there. Yeah, you can bench Rhymes but I doubt that Rhymes willingly went from big-league opening day starter to Triple-A utility guy in one year—given that he 1) opted to sign here and 2) did so a few weeks ago, it seems like he was told his role would be one a decent one. I guess you could DH Mangini.
Even if Brignac does remain on the big-league bench, what happens when Beckham is ready? Then Brignac could go to Triple-A, unless Hak-Ju Lee is ready for his promotion, then Brignac is stuck in the same situation. You have to have an eye on the present and an eye on the future, and Brignac’s future with the Rays looks dim. We can talk about whether he might redeem himself and gain back some value, just like we can talk about the inverse: how much value can he lose if he starts slow?
I wanted him to become Khalil Greene as bad as anyone, but he’s 26 now. He isn’t a cute prospect whose flaws you can dream away anymore. He’s a guy who toed the line between second-division starter and glove-only reserve these last two years. I couldn’t tell you which one is the real Brignac, and given the Rays’ shortstop surplus, I’m not sure they need to find out. The only question for me is whether he goes by opening day, or a few months later.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 5, 2012 12:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think Brignac has a long term future with the Rays either.
Perhaps Beckham later this season and in my view almost certainly Lee the year after at some point.
But who is ready to play plus defense at SS to start this season? Of course in the right deal, Brignac is gone. But as of this moment that has not happened. Would the Rays be prepared to deal a starting pitcher for a RH bench bat? Could they get a decent player/prospect plus a RH bench bat for Davis or Niemann? If the answer to any of those questions is yes, then Brignac is probably gone. But if all three are “no”, I think he starts the season on the roster over Rhymes or Figueroa or anyone else.
To be clear: I meant Rhymes or Figueroa on the Triple-A roster.
I’m not certain having a plus defensive shortstop on the roster is a must for the Rays. I know the generalization is that the Rays value defense before all else, but I find that incorrect. Just look at their willingness to play Johnny Damon in left field, or sign Carlos Pena—who defensive metrics are not kind to anymore—to play first base again. I think they value value, and if they feel the right-handed bat adds more value to the team than Brignac, I don’t think relying on Rodriguez to play a passable shortstop—even comparable to latter day Jason Bartlett—would be uncharacteristic.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 5, 2012 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
I think those examples
reflect the point Friedman made about some balance between the additional offense and a weakened defense. It is not so much that they were willing to discount defense as that they thought the increase in offense (projection for Manny plus Damon vs Fuld/Ruggiano or Pena power vs Kotchman power) was great enough to make the sacrifice worthwhile. And note that both examples are at positions on the lower part of the defensive spectrum.
I suspect that the offensive addition would have to be significant and relatively certain to make dispensing with a plus defensive SS likely. Again, I don’t discount the possibility that Brignac fails to make the opening day roster. I just don’t think the addition of Keppinger or the talent currently in the system is enough to make it likely. And as you note, since that Knobler comment the Rays have added 2 power bats (they hope). Are they prepared to let Niemann/Davis go for a bench bat; are they likely to get more before the season?
Rays won't let Neimann/Davis go for a bench bat
But they can package either/or for a catcher AND a bench/back-up DH/1st base power bat player….more so if they include someone else in the deal.
Maybe like Brignac?
Yes,
if they can manage that, and if the return really does improve the offense more than marginally.
As mr. maniac pointed out the number of available major league catchers with offensive upside seems very limited right now, especially if the return is for Davis/Niemann and Brignac.
I certainly would not discount the possibility, and I agree if it can be arranged that Brignac is probably dispensable, but right now it seems unlikely. So it still comes down to how much offense is enough to sacrifice the value that Brignac’s defense provides.
bobr
Do you think the Padres could make the most sense with this in mind? Available offensive catcher and right handed bat with a need for a shortstop and starting pitching. A lot of people like Blanks, but from what ive read not playing every day greatly affected his production. I think a guy like Guzman makes a bunch of sense. He can play the corner outfield positions and first base with above average defense, has some speed and hits lefties really well. IMO working a trade around Hundley and Guzman would make a ton of sense.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 5, 2012 5:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think mr.maniac makes good points in his post on catcher availability.
I am concerned that neither of those players can repeat what appears an unusual performance compared to their norms. And in any case, I am not sure they are available for what the Rays are willing to trade.
I do think exploring the idea makes sense, but doubt much comes of it.
Two teams that keep coming to mind that could like a mid/back end rotation starter and have surplus DH/1st base/COF are the Padres and A's
I think Neimann/Davis might both fit either team looking for cost effective, potential innings eaters to add to their staffs. Factor in that neither team also has a top SS prospect in their system and Brignac could become part of a deal. Padres would like to move Bartlett at some point(sooner than later) because of his contract and Pennington, while a decent hitter and under control, is 2 years older and is not a very good defensive SS.
With that in mind
What about this…
Davis, Brignac, and Lobaton for Hundley, Guzman, and Darnell/Decker
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 5, 2012 4:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Only problem is the Padres will have to get at least one younger decent prospect back in that deal
Seeing as they are thinking ahead two years. It might take a Beckham and/or a good young arm in place of Brignac/Lobaton
That would just be greedy ha
Their farm system is already pleanty good.
I think lobaton would have to be involved since he is out of options. Plus the padres would need a stopgap catcher for 2012. Also worth mentioning he was drafted by the padres.
Padres are building for the future and davis, brignac and lobaton would all be under team control for 4-6 years. Maybe im being greedy, but im not sure hundley and guzman would be enough for davis, brignac and lobaton.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 5, 2012 5:59 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
All the players in this trade are all in the 26-28 year old group.
The players involved would all help each team with immediate needs and are almost lateral moves. As it appears the Padres are looking ahead to at least 2014, guys like Davis, Brignac and Lobaton are under control but don’t fit their longer term outlook, IMO. Which is why I think they would have to get a younger prospect or two, although Davis gives them a strong arm that is needed now(with their staff) and Lobaton fills a roster spot as back-up catcher.
If everything broke the right way
Brignac could be a 3+ War SS if he regresses to 2010 form over a full season for 4 years. Davis could be a solid 2+ War starter for 6 years. Those two could become cornerstones for a padres turn around.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 6, 2012 3:02 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Very well said, I'm not sure he brings enough to the table if his upside is league average bat
I’ve certainly ran the gambit of hate-love-meh, but what we’re ultimately talking about is a player that that just doesn’t profile well for a team that is a contender. I’d love to see another team that is further down the win curve take a shot at letting him be an everyday player at SS, but I don’t think the Rays are in a position to dedicate that roster spot.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 5, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
Well, with a league average bat, he would definitely bring enough to the table
But there’s little possibility of that at this point
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 6, 2012 2:20 AM EST up reply actions
I still cant he has posted a career ld% over 20% for his career including 22.5% in 2011
I guess he just doesnt hit the ball hard enough. It seems like forever ago he had 8hr in only 326 pa.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 6, 2012 2:57 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
The problem is that he doesn't hit the ball enough when you factor in whiffs. I'm whipping something up that's too long for a comment
so I’ll link when I’m finished
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 6, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Right, he's useful at league average which is probably somewhere around his upper 10 percentile projection
It’s possible, but unlikely
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 6, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
His wRC+ was 88 in that, his best, year. Like I said, I'm working on something more in depth that I'll be glad to pass along later.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 6, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
and it was 91 in the 30 games prior.
Through his first 140+ games in the Bigs he had a wRC+ around 10% worse than LA. Then he fell off a cliff last season, and we don’t know why. With the proper usage, like we saw through 2010, I think “upper 10% projection” is just a bit strong.
You can't throw away numbers just because you don't like them. In his career of close to 700 PAs he has a wRC+ of 61
He has hit about as well as Alberto Gonzalez and Josh Wilson. Would you be comfortable having Josh Wilson start any amount of games again for us even though he brings a better than average glove? You’ve fallen in love and I’m sorry, but she’s just not right for you.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 6, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
where did i throw any numbers away? i mentioned them.
my point is just that he’s been close in the past (in his first trip in the league), so to say that it is a near impossibility to happen again is a stretch. whatever, though, it’s a dumb argument.
You don't have to get angry when confronted with evidence that you're wrong, just suck it up and move on.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
lol... how do you figure im angry? or wrong?
canzlers lookin pretty good to make the roster over him, though. good call there.
What is proper usage here?
He faced 84 percent righties in 2010, and that same ratio in 2011. Maybe he faced more flyball righties in 2011.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
And he wouldn't be worth a roster spot if you're only going to use him for late inning defense and starting against ground-balling righties
Having a good glove a mere phone call away for more than a game or two fill in is a nice luxury
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
The options aren't that great at this point, but the team could still get a Felipe Lopez type that brings a little more with the bat
while not losing the positional flexibility. As someone else mentioned, there should be a wash of guys hitting the wire a few days before the season so that teams are not on the hook for more dough. Give one of those guys a shot while maximizing Briggy’s last option.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Well according to you Keppinger is redundant with Rodriguez on the roster
You can have more than one of a similar type of player. That is still allowed.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
not really. s-rod is very good defender at 2b, and possibly decent at ss.
kepp and flip’s gloves are both liabilities. so yes, s-rod and kepp are similar, and you can have 2 players with similar skillsets. why carry three, though, when there’s a seemingly good complement who has had success in the past. why send him to durham to try to possibly find some player that might be decent but is already represented on the roster?
For practically nothing I might think about that, him and Pena forms a pretty nice platoon and it offers Scott insurance
Pena, Lee, Scott rotating between 1B/DH with at least one off the bench every game would be really nice. I’d rather have that and give Roddy a fulltime shot to fail at SS.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
this is the only way i see reid starting in aaa.
i cant see them doing it for a guy who isnt at least servicable somewhere defensively. who knows though.
Wouldn't be the first player to have a solid first 430 PA then never reach that level again.
Look at Travis Buck. From ,288/.377/.474 in his first 334 PA as a 23-year-old to having highs of .228/.291/.432 since.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, and Brignac should get better because true talent 29 OPS+ hitters don't last in the majors.
I am concerned with how bad it was though. You look at the list below, and a lot of these guys who are that bad in a year and get that much playing time are either babies or they just don’t recover to become anything. There are a few exceptions (Jermaine Dye), but given what we know about Brignac’s plate discipline issues, you add these swing problems and I think it’s fair to be concerned.
Since 2000, the worst OPS+ in a single season for guys with 250+ PA:
Player OPS+ PA Year Age
Drew Butera 24 254 2011 27
Reid Brignac 29 264 2011 25
Tomas Perez 32 254 2006 32
Homer Bush 33 325 2000 27
Andy LaRoche 36 252 2008 24
Jeff Mathis 37 281 2011 28
Jermaine Dye 38 253 2003 29
Chone Figgins 39 313 2011 33
Pat Meares 39 284 2001 32
Tony Womack 40 364 2003 33
Jack Wilson 40 425 2001 23
Alex Gonzalez 40 407 2000 23
Paul Janish 42 366 2011 28
Juan Castro 42 261 2001 29
Michael Barrett 42 297 2000 23
Vinny Castilla 43 354 2000 32
Alexi Casilla 44 256 2009 24
Craig Paquette 44 266 2002 33
Neifi Perez 44 585 2002 29
Pedro Feliz 45 429 2010 35
Omar Vizquel 45 300 2008 41
Ronnie Belliard 45 317 2002 27
Peter Bergeron 45 416 2001 23
Tommy Manzella 46 282 2010 27
Neifi Perez 46 316 2006 33
Player OPS+ PA Year Age
Pokey Reese 46 268 2004 31
Kevin Jordan 46 358 2000 30
Clint Barmes 47 535 2006 27
Abraham Nunez 47 369 2006 30
Chad Moeller 47 349 2004 29
Tony Clark 47 298 2002 30
Einar Diaz 47 351 2002 29
Willy Taveras 48 437 2009 27
Brandon Phillips 48 393 2003 22
Chris Truby 48 404 2002 28
Ray Olmedo 49 250 2003 22
Luis Valbuena 50 310 2010 24
Corey Patterson 50 392 2008 28
Adam Kennedy 50 306 2007 31
John McDonald 50 286 2006 31
Tony Womack 50 351 2005 35
Chuck Knoblauch 50 336 2002 33
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Here is the same query for middle infielders younger than 30 only, since nobody should care what 35-year-old Tony Womack did:
Player OPS+ PA Year Age
Reid Brignac 29 264 2011 25
Homer Bush 33 325 2000 27
Jack Wilson 40 425 2001 23
Alex Gonzalez 40 407 2000 23
Paul Janish 42 366 2011 28
Alexi Casilla 44 256 2009 24
Neifi Perez 44 585 2002 29
Tommy Manzella 46 282 2010 27
Clint Barmes 47 535 2006 27
Brandon Phillips 48 393 2003 22
Ray Olmedo 49 250 2003 22
Luis Valbuena 50 310 2010 24
Cesar Izturis 51 513 2010 30
Enrique Wilson 51 262 2004 30
Cesar Izturis 51 468 2002 22
Angel Berroa 52 503 2006 26
Cristian Guzman 53 492 2005 27
Ronny Cedeno 54 572 2006 23
Juan Uribe 55 618 2002 22
Felix Martinez 55 353 2000 26
Josh Barfield 56 444 2007 24
Russ Adams 56 280 2006 25
Alex Cora 56 264 2006 30
Brendan Ryan 57 486 2010 28
Ronny Cedeno 58 376 2009 26
Player OPS+ PA Year Age
Pokey Reese 58 474 2001 28
Jonathan Herrera 59 320 2011 26
Cesar Izturis 59 337 2007 27
Ramon Santiago 59 507 2003 23
Alex Cora 59 449 2001 25
Paul Janish 60 292 2009 26
Cesar Izturis 60 593 2003 23
Josh Wilson 62 388 2010 29
Ruben Tejada 62 255 2010 20
Alex Cora 62 273 2005 29
Brent Abernathy 62 504 2002 24
Cesar Izturis 63 412 2009 29
Angel Berroa 64 256 2008 28
Adam Everett 64 566 2006 29
Omar Infante 64 434 2005 23
Miguel Cairo 64 417 2000 26
Kevin Stocker 64 409 2000 30
Khalil Greene 65 423 2008 28
Aaron Miles 65 347 2005 28
Alcides Escobar 66 552 2010 23
Yuniesky Betancourt 66 508 2009 27
Josh Wilson 66 310 2007 26
Cesar Izturis 66 478 2005 25
John McDonald 66 288 2002 27
Orlando Cabrera 66 454 2000 25
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
a quick look:
a-gonz has had 3 seasons of OPS+ over 95 since his bad year. casilla was at 100 and 91 ops+ since his dreadful year. barmes has done it. phillips as well (though he’s probs a diff case). thats already more than 10% of the names there, and ive looked at the first 10.
so id peg the odds that he has a league average season at some point higher than 10%.
thats all i was saying. will he do it this year? probably not, but i think theres better than a 1 in 10 chance. alsom i really, really like an alex gonzalez comp for him. awful approach, some pop, and good defense.
Not the first time he's come up:
In terms of similar players, Alex Gonzalez and Miguel Tejada compare the most favorable to Brignac’s age 24 uBB/SO rate and ISO. Gonzalez also has the sterling defensive reputation, although he has turned into something of a journeyman in recent seasons. Tejada has the power and the nickname, "Mr. Swings at Everything" (courtesy of Billy Beane in Moneyball), to roll with Brignac. Apparently, you can’t walk off the island, away from Venezuela, or out of Louisiana. Of course, if Brignac has either of their career arcs, I think the Rays have to walk away satisfied.
Anyhow, I wasn’t arguing the 10 percent number. I don’t know what the percent on that is.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
I've seen the projection.
I can’t tell you much more than it’s a little more optimistic than his line over the last two seasons (.227/.271/.311)
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Also, how much of the argument for Brignac changes if Rodriguez can play a passable shortstop?
I know Brignac had the platoon advantage and better defensive profile at short entering last year, but I was willing—and I’m guessing a few others—to see him take his lumps against lefties and play everyday. I think I’m up for the same thing with Rodriguez, and if it fails, hopefully Beckham does his thing and can take over after the Super Two date passes.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
somwhat i guess?
i mean if reid brings back a decent return im fine moving him, but otherwise id put him on the roster. he’s either the best defender on the bench, a sometimes starter at ss in the bigs, or with out a role in AAA. dont see how he can improve his trade value doing taht in aaa, and if hes not worth much now can he really hurt it in the bigs?
if s-rod really is able to man SS everyday, id be elated but we still generally carry 4 MIFs so id guess it just means reid would be solely a bench glove instead of sometime starter.
does that make sense?
Yes.
I don’t know what Brignac’s value is (I suspect not much), and I don’t know how sensitive it would be either way.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 6, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
While Brignac may or not make the roster and the Rays generally do keep 4 MIFs, they have the luxury of two of those guys also being able to play the OF.
With Zobrist and S-Rod having that flexibility, it does open up another possible roster spot for adding one more big bat. That can be accomplished by not keeping Fuld. While he is a defensive specialist there may not be the over riding need to keep him on the roster
Before Jennings came up Fuld started 66 of the Rays first 99 games with much success. But after DJ arrived, Fuld only started 11 of the last 63 games, got into only 26 games at all and wasn’t very productive at the plate. He was only 11-46 with 2 XBH, 2 RBI’s, 1 SH and 3 SB’s.
His defensive strengths may not be as needed as much as Brignac at SS and should the Rays be able to add another bigger bat who could also play COF as well, it may make Fuld even more replaceable
You really think T-Bex has a shot of being in the bigs next year?
Even if he lights up AAA I say there’s 0 chance prior to maybe a september call up, he’s only 22 which is at least 2 years too young for the Rays
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 8, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
he will have had one full season in aaa come august.
if he hits, and we need a SS youll see him i think.
It would just be really, really unlike the Rays
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 10, 2012 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
moore, longoria, and price were all pushed. they've pushed him more than a level a season so far.
i think you are putting them in a bo too much.
For position players, it's unlike the Rays moreso than for pitchers
I bet you any amount of money that
had Longoria not signed the contract, he wouldn’t have become a permanent fixture on the ML level. Not to mention that we don’t know what would’ve happened with Moore if he hadn’t signed the extension (technically we still don’t!).
So yeah, if Beckham were a pitcher, or if he signed a big league deal, then things would be different. Otherwise, he’s DEFINITELY not getting a long-term call up (I won’t rule out a short stint if someone gets injured or whatever) until September, and I’d take 100:1 odds on that
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 11, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
25 Man Opening Day Roster
C – Suzuki (acquired for package with McGee, Torres/Cobb/W.Rodriguez, +)
1B – Pena
2B- Zobrist
3B – Longo
SS – SRod
LF – Jennings
CF – Bossman
RF – Joyce
DH- Scott
Bench – Kipp, Fuld, Briggy, Molina
Rotation
Shields
Price
Hellboy
Niemann
Moore
Bullpen
High Leverage Guys:
Farnsworth
Davis
Peralta
Middle Relief:
Gomes
Burdenhop
JP
LOOGY- Ramos
DL – Rodney (DL will serve as an additional roster spot for pitchers rotating through all year, starting with Rodney. If JP has not returned to form he will be here instead).
I don't see any way Ramos is on the roster even trading away McGee.
JP would most likely be the Loogy at least at the start. The last spot would go to Lueke most likely if they were to put Rodney on the DL.

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