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Did the Rays Have the Best Offseason in the AL East?

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For the first time in a long while the major moves in baseball were not made in the American League East. Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson signed with the Angels, Jose Reyes with the Marlins, and Prince Fielder with the Tigers. Of course this doesn't mean that the teams in the AL East stood on the sidelines all winter the moves just didn't shake the baseball world like a Pujols, Reyes, or Fielder.

How do we determine which AL East team had the most successful offseason? Is it the team that did the most to improve its roster from 2011 to 2012? Is it the team that did the most to secure a playoff birth in 2012? Is there a difference between the two concepts?

Star-divide

The MBLTR Offseason Outlook for the Tampa Bay Rays identified the Rays primary concerns as:

The Rays will work within their budget in an attempt to boost their offense, but they don’t intend to sacrifice run prevention along the way.

One year ago the Rays watched a number of players depart via free agency and also traded Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett. The opening day payroll was cut from its 2010 level of $72,847,133 to $42,171,308 in 2011. The Rays weren't supposed to be playing post-season baseball but the team that was cobbled together by Andrew Friedman and the rest of the Rays front office did just that.

This offseason the Rays have subtracted both of their catchers, 1b, DH, and one member of the bullpen and have added 3 new relief pitchers (two of which should be in the bullpen come opening day), a new/old first baseman, a catcher, and a DH.

The Rays made the following moves this offseason:

October 31, 2011 - Exercised the options on relief pitcher Kyle Farnsworth for $3.3 million and starting pitcher James Shields at $7.5 million.

November 18, 2011 - Signed catcher Jose Molina to a 1-year $1.5 million contract with a 2013 club option worth$1.8 million or a $0.3 million buyout.

November 27, 2011 - Traded catcher John Jaso to the Seattle Mariners for relief pitcher Josh Lueke and a player to be named later or cash considerations.

December 12, 2011 - Traded catcher Jake Jeffries to the Florida Marlins for relief pitcher Burke Badenhop.

January 4, 2012 - Signed relief pitcher Fernando Rodney to a 1-year $1.75 million contract with a 2013 club option worth $2.5 million or a $0.25 million buyout.

January 11, 2012 - Signed OF/1b/DH Luke Scott to a 1-year $5 million contract with a 2013 club option worth 5 million or a $1 million buyout.

January 20, 2012 - Signed 1b Carlos Pena to a 1-year $7.25 million contract.

January 25, 2012 - Signed infielder Jeff Keppinger to a 1-year $1.525 million contract.

Other signings of note: 1b/OF Juan Miranda, relief pitcher Johnny Nunez, and infielder Wil Rhymes,

Contract Extension: December 9, 2011 signed Matt Moore to a 5-year (2012-2016) $14 million contract. The extension includes club options in 2017, 2018, and 2019.


The MLBTR Offseason Outlook for the New York Yankees identified the Yankees primary concerns as:

The Yankees' offseason is all about their search for starting pitching, though they'll look to add bench help and a second left-handed reliever as well.

Up until Friday January 13th the Yankees hadn't addressed their starting rotation for 2012. Up until that evening the rotation still included CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes, and Freddy Garcia. But by Saturday, January 14th that Yankee rotation looked a lot better as the Yankees picked up Micheal Pineda in a trade with the Mariners and Hiroki Kuroda to a contract.

The Yankees made the following moves this offseason:

October 29, 2011 - Exercised the options on OF/1b Nick Swisher for $10.25 million and 2b Robinson Cano for $14 million.

October 31, 2011 - Restructured LHP C.C. Sabathia's contract to 5-years $122 million to avoid an opt-out clause. The contract includes a 6th year vesting option predicated on the health of Sabathia's left shoulder.

December 9, 2011 - Re-signed RHP Freddy Garcia to a 1-year $4 million contract plus performance bonuses based on games started over 25.

December 30, 2011 - Re-signed OF Andruw Jones to a 1-year $2 million contract plus performance bonuses for plate appearances starting at 175 PAs.

January 13, 2012 - Traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to the Seattle Mariners for Michael Pineda and Jose Campos.

January 13, 2012 - Singed Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year $10 million contract.

Other signing of note: Relief Pitchers Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Adam Miller, Bill Hall, Russell Branyan, and infielder Jayson Nix.


The MLBTR Offseason Outlook for the Boston Red Sox identified the Red Sox primary concerns as:

Longtime GM Theo Epstein is gone and recently-appointed replacement Ben Cherington will try leading the Red Sox to their first playoff appearance since 2009 by improving the pitching staff and tinkering with the offense.

The Red Sox watched their post-season hopes dashed on a duck snort to LF that Carl Crawford was unable to snare. Ownership decided it was time for a change and removed both Terry Francona as Manager and Theo Epstein as GM. The Red Sox knew they needed starting pitching to fill out their 2012 rotation, especially after it was revealed that John Lackey required Tommy John surgery and would miss most, if not all, of the 2012 season. The Red Sox have been unable to land a competent starting pitcher and for now are sticking to the plan of moving Daniel Bard and Alfredo Aceves from the bullpen to the rotation. Additionally, GM Ben Cherington has assembled the island of misfit pitchers to bring to Fort Meyers.

The Red Sox made the following moves this offseason:

October 30, 2011 - Exercised the option on shortstop Marco Scutaro for $6 million.

December 13, 2011 - Signed Kelly Shoppach to a 1-year $1.35 million contract.

December 14, 2011 - Signed Nick Punto to a 2-year $3 million contract.

December 14, 2011 - Traded infielder Jed Lowrie and RHP Kyle Weiland to the Houston Astros for RH relief pitcher Mark Melancon.

December 28, 2011 - Traded OF Josh Reddick, 1b Miles Head, RHP Raul Alcantara to the Oakland A's for RH reliever Andrew Bailey and OF Ryan Sweeney.

January 23, 2012 - Signed OF Cody Ross to a 1-year $1 million contract.

January 21, 2012 - Traded infielder Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Clayton Mortenson.

Other signings of note:Tony Pena, Jesse Carlson, Rich Hill, Pedro Ciriaco, Carlos Silva, Aaron Cook, Vincent Padilla, and John Maine.


The MLBTR Offseason Outlook for the Toronto Blue Jays identified the Blue Jays primary concerns as:

The Blue Jays will look for a second baseman, relief pitching and rotation help this offseason. They might consider some of the top free agents available.

Kelly Johnson accepted arbitration and many expected the Blue Jays to be a landing spot for one of the top shelf free agents. We keep hearing that Alex Anthopoulos has the money to spend on payroll but the largest free agent contract that he has given out is $4.5 million.

The Blue Jays made the following moves this offseason:

October 31, 2011 - Exercised the option on Edwin Encarnacion for 1-year 3.5 million.

November 4, 2011 - Purchased LH reliever Trystan Magnuson from the Oakland A's (Magnuson was included in the deal that sent Rajai Davis to Toronto last offseason).

November 26, 2011 - Purchased infielder Luis Valbuena from the Cleveland Indians.

December 3, 2011 - Traded LHP Brad Mills to the Anaheim Angels for C Jeff Mathis.

December 6, 2011 - Traded Nestor Molina to the Chicago White Sox for RH relief pitcher Sergio Santos.

December 12, 2011 - Traded LH reliever Frank Gailey to the Philadelphia Phillies for OF Ben Francisco.

December 30, 2011 - Signed LH relief pitcher Darren Oliver to a 1-year 4.5 million contract.

January 1, 2012 - Traded RHP Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb to the Chicago White Sox for RH relief pitcher Jason Frasor.

Other signings of note: Omar Vizquel and Aaron Laffey.

Contract Extension: On January 23, 2012 signed Brandon Morrow to a 2-year (2012-2014) $20 million contract. The extension includes an option for $10 million in 2015 or a $1 million buyout.


The MLBTR Offseason Outlook for the Baltimore Orioles identified the Orioles primary concerns as:

Once the Orioles sort out the uncertainty in their front office, they'll have to improve a disappointing rotation and add balance to their promising lineup.

The Orioles GM search stopped at former Expos and Red Sox GM Dan Duquette. He has quite a job to do, as the Orioles 2011 season marked their 14th consecutive season under .500 and their 6th consecutive 90 loss season.

The Orioles made the following moves this offseason:

December 1, 2011 - Traded RH relief pitcher Randy Henry for catcher Taylor Teagarden.

December 8, 2011 - Traded LHP Jarret Martin and OF Tyler Henson to the Los Angeles Dodgers for P Dana Eveland.

December 13, 2011 - Signed International Free Agent LHP Tsuyoshi Wada to a 2-year 8.15 million contract which includes a 3rd year club option for $5 million.

December 18, 2011 - Signed OF Endy Chavez to a 1-year $1.5 million contract.

January 9, 2012 - Signed International Free Agent LHP Wei-Yin Chin to a 3-year $12 million contract.

January 23, 2012 - Signed infielder Wilson Betemit to a 2-year $3 million contract with a vesting option for 2014. The option is worth $3.2 million and vests if he has 700 PA between 2012 and 2013 combined.

February 6, 2012 - Traded RHP Jeremy Guthrie to the Colorado Rockies for RHP Jason Hamel and RH relief pitcher Matt Lindstrom.

February 10, 2012 - Signed RH reliever Luis Ayala to a 1-year deal which includes an option for a second year.

Other signings of note: Pat Neshek, Casey Fossum, Dennys Reyes, Nick Johnson, and Matt Antonelli.

Poll
Which AL East team had the best offseason?
New York Yankees
155 votes
Tampa Bay Rays
398 votes
Toronto Blue Jays
26 votes
Boston Red Sox
11 votes
Baltimore Orioles
14 votes

604 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 50 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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My offseason rankings.

1. Rays
2. Yankees
3. Red Sox
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

#1-2 are close because they shored up their biggest needs fairly efficiently. Red Sox are fairly solid in 3rd because at least they resigned Papi and got some bullpen help, but the Scutaro salary dump and not shoring up the rotation keep them in 3rd.

by jtmorgan on Feb 11, 2012 10:46 AM EST reply actions  

yeah....................................

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 11, 2012 12:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd rank them like this:

1. Yankees
2. Rays
3. Jays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles

by mr. maniac on Feb 11, 2012 10:53 AM EST reply actions  

I wonder if we would be interested in Matt Adams.

That would be nice if we could get him and another guy, but I’d rather see us wait until midseason and trade for a catcher. Or now.

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 11, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

His plate discipline is fine.

He doesn’t have an ideal walk rate, but his K rate is pretty good so far in the minors.

FREE GUYER!

by SandalsNoPants on Feb 11, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Just ask John Jaso

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 11, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Care to share them with the rest of us?

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 11, 2012 6:41 PM EST up reply actions  

His findings were that, overall, BB:K correlated the best at a meager .198 square that to get an idea of predictability and you won't find a very strong link

I don’t even get those results for the total players. I initially started looking at all players in the set, and did not get his correlation levels, but decided to look at just the players that played in MLB. Correlation to wRC+:
BB% 0.215
K% 0.007
Contact -0.034
Iso 0.305
Avg 0.194
OBP 0.271
SLG 0.315

BB% correlated with major league success relatively well, but power is even more important, and I think you can argue that high walk% is much more of a function of power than it is ability to work the count as we see a correlation of .316 between ISO and BB%

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 11, 2012 7:45 PM EST up reply actions  

And I just ran a regression that showed a .01 point increase of ISO in minors then you would expect a 1.04 point increase of wRC+ in the majors

The means were .162 for ISO for players that made the show and the average wRC+ was 83.2. So you get something like this:

ISO wRC+
0.162 83.2
0.172 84.2
0.182 85.3
0.192 86.3
0.202 87.4
0.212 88.4
0.222 89.4
0.232 90.5
0.242 91.5
0.252 92.6
0.262 93.6
0.272 94.6
0.282 95.7
0.292 96.7
0.302 97.8
0.312 98.8

Obviously there’s more to it, but if you can hit with power, you’ve got a good chance of being a ML Hitter

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 11, 2012 8:16 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Man, The first thing I think of is the Pena and Scott signings.

But then, oh yeah, signing Moore to a team-friendly extension plus adding depth at middle infield and RP? And without trading anything serious? Rays pretty easily for me.

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 11, 2012 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

The Rays had the best offseason IMO...

The Yankees finish a close second. When you consider the Rays went into the offseason with weaknesses at 1B, DH, C, and SS… And they have upgraded 3 of the 4 positions.

For those saying 1st base isnt an upgrade because of the #‘s Kotch put up last season, you’ll have to say the same about the Yanks pitching moves. Colon and Garcia were massive surprises in the same way Kotch was, but what are the odds they all replicate the success. Kotch’s numbers were extremely empty when reviewed, and Pena should easily exceed the PRODUCTION.

DH- Speaks for itself. If Scott plays anywhere near as good as normal, then it will be an upgrade. Two concerns are health and home/road splits with O’s.

C- It will be hard to not be better then the crap the Rays ran out in 2010. And that’s on offense. Even if Molina equals Shop/Jaso offensively, the Rays got a helluva lot better on defense.

SS- Still a major concern. But with 2 young SS’s battling it out for the starting job, I’ve got to believe that with regression and competition, the Rays will see improvement at SS. But obviously, nothing was done in FA,.

by td32 on Feb 11, 2012 12:10 PM EST reply actions  

damn, i didn't get here in time.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 13, 2012 12:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I picked the Yankees first and the Rays second.

But I debated the order and think the difference depends on perspective. For efficiency, I would put the Rays first. But in terms of quality of talent acquired, I think the Yankees place first.

The Yankees didn’t simply get probable upgrades in their weakest link; they got a potential long-term star in Pineda and a reasonably safe (and good) mid rotation or better starter in Kuroda. True, they had to give up significant talent for Pineda (although the Campos addition mitigates that a bit), but they did not get simply a one year player for it. And the money for Kuroda was very reasonable given the circumstances.

In addition, they kept important complementary players like Jones and Garcia, re-signed two regulars for next year at reasonable cost and even added some minor league contracts (to players with some upside) to provide depth in the event of injury.

The most exciting Rays move was the Moore contract. (I like re-signing Farnsworth also.) Beyond that, the talent added (Pena, Scott, Molina, Rodney, Badenhop, Lueke, Keppinger) are lesser players than the two the Yankees acquired and I think come with more questions regarding age, injury and/or usefulness. The Rays did cover their needs, but it was more like plastering over the holes than filling them and at most permit 2 years of control. I also think the cost of Rodney, given the risk, is excessive.

For those reasons, while I think the Rays did very well, and as mr. maniac says, may yet do even better, right now I think the Yankees had the best off-season.

by bobr on Feb 11, 2012 4:48 PM EST reply actions  

I meant to add

that with the addition of PIneda and Kuroda, NY took a very suspect rotation, maybe 3rd or even 4th in the division, to one that might be as good and as deep as TB’s, that is the best in the division. That is a huge upgrade in a critical element of the team.

Nothing the Rays did is comparable. Pena at 1B does not vault the Rays from weak to top of the division at that position, nor does Scott at DH nor Molina at catcher (at least not offensively). The bullpen additions are certainly welcome, but do not make the bullpen an elite one in the AL East.

by bobr on Feb 11, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Some very valid points...

Beauty is certainly in the eye of the beholder on this one, and it could go either way. Many analysts think the M’s got a steal by having Noesi involved in the Montero-Pineda swap. The Yanks traded an impact bat in Montero, and a nice upper level prospect in Noesi. Even though many people questioned the Yanks rotation last season, Colon and Garcia had excellent results. By getting Kuroda and Pineda, I believe they have a much better chance of replicating the results then if they ran Colon and Garcia back out there.

Having said that, for now, Montero/Pineda is a wash IMO. The Rays didnt have to give up any talent to upgrade the bullpen, 1b, DH, and C. Throw in the Moore contract, and I’m content with giving the Rays the best offseason in the division.

by td32 on Feb 11, 2012 5:47 PM EST up reply actions  

For 2012 alone, I have to go with the yankees

But the Rays probably had a better off-season overall

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 11, 2012 5:50 PM EST reply actions  

So you voted for the Yanks?

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 11, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

With the Yanks on the verge of getting rid of Burnett, I would have to give the edge to them.

Not only do they get rid of a starter they do not need(in addition to already to strengthening their one need this winter..the rotation), they will free up enough payroll to apparently add Chavez AND another LH DH bat. I see no question marks in their everyday line-up(1-9).

If AF can add a full time catcher and/or another power bat before OD, I see it as a push.

by budman3 on Feb 12, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd like to see the Rays go after Cespedes

offer a split contract with the MLB part being 5/$30-35M with a $5 M signing bonus, which looks to be a little better than what the Marlins have initially offered.

by Blue or CONKZILLA on Feb 12, 2012 12:24 AM EST reply actions  

What is your expected slash line for him? I feel like there's an additional transaction cost here because of the hype. The track record of Cuban players isn't all that strong as the Rays have experienced first hand with Leslie and Jose Julio Ruiz

And I guess Miranda is also Cuban. The hype of these players drives up what might even have been a reasonable price making it unlikely the Rays get involved.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 12, 2012 5:59 AM EST up reply actions  

You do have to buy into his skills and projections and I'm not sure the Rays do.

But they could fit him into their future payroll if they did. I proposed this contract once before in a previous post.

I would try to sign Cepedes to a deal similar to Chapman where he gets a five year deal with a nice signing bonus of maybe two million up front with the rest of the signing bonus paid out yearly, over the next 8 or 9 years(at maybe 1.5 a year) for a total signing of about 16 million.. In addition he would get a yearly escalating contract staring at 1 million than going up in small increments(1.5,2, 2, 3 with maybe an 5 million option in the 5th year). That could get a team friendly contract that may total close to 35 million but is paid out over several years without any one big hit. The type of small market, under the radar deal that the Rays could offer with the long term future in mind. Cespedes could still play in a large Cuban market but with maybe less pressure than let’s say, Miami for very good money, if that’s what he’s looking for.

by budman3 on Feb 12, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

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