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The Rays Tank: The Attack Of The Saber

ST PETERSBURG, FL - OCTOBER 04:  Matt Moore #55 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the fifth inning against the Texas Rangers in Game Four of the American League Division Series at Tropicana Field on October 4, 2011 in St Petersburg, Florida.  (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

We may be in a dead time of the year for baseball news, but that certainly doesn't mean there's a dearth of cool articles to read. In fact, there were a number of articles yesterday that featured some interesting -- and new! -- sabermetric research. If you're into such things, don't waste a moment and check out these three pieces:

  • Matt Swartz continued his series on the price of a Win, and he finished his piece with a chart of the $/WAR that teams have spent in every year going back to 1985. To me, it's fascinating to see how prices remained relatively stable through the '90s, but then started to skyrocket come the '00s. It also seems like that inflation is increasing faster and faster.
  • Jeff Zimmerman looked at how intentional walks can screw up a player's perceived walk rate and patience. In short, players that see a boost in their intentional walk rate also typically receive a bump in their unintentional walk rate as pitchers will be more cautious around them and give them non-intentional walks. So when you see a player that boosted his walk rate dramatically, you should first stop and see if that's because the player has truly improved their plate discipline, or in large part because pitchers are being more cautious with them.
  • Bill Petti has done some recent research on park factors affect a team's chance of winning, and he followed that work up by looking at how park factors and ERA estimators relate. Are certain ERA estimators more effective in hitter- or pitcher-friendly parks? Do ERA estimators that include batted ball profiles gain importance depending on the park? It's some interesting stuff, and will hopefully lead to even more research down the line.

And now, on to other baseball articles. If research bores you, there are still plenty of fun reads this morning:

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20 year tv deal?

Why? The market will look vastly different in 20 years.

Teams that signed deals just a couple of years ago are already looking like they settled for too little

October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--

OTTOTD.com

by Sveet on Feb 16, 2012 9:15 AM EST reply actions  

+1

I can’t believe no one else is saying this.

by mr. maniac on Feb 16, 2012 9:23 AM EST up reply actions  

8-10 years sounds best

and the Rays should fight hard to get an opt-out clause in the contract. Maybe a 10 year deal with an opt out after 7. Financial security along with making sure they are getting the maximum revenue they can to compete.

by raysfaninminnesota on Feb 16, 2012 9:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Rays will not be "behind the times" but ahead of them

I couldn’t agree more how the deals keep getting better and better at a time when other teams have locked themselves into long-term deals at what seems to be now undermarket prices. Rays will get a better deal by 2016 than teams got in the last five years. Hopefully anyways.

by raysfaninminnesota on Feb 16, 2012 9:43 AM EST up reply actions  

I wonder how the Marlins situation affects this. I would think that the better the Marlins do the more it drives up the price for both, but

you look at the Texas deal where they are in direct competition with Houston and the Angels being in direct competition with the Dodgers. Both of the competitors look to be awful for the next few years which means an RSN would try harder to lock up the better looking team as it should lead to more advertising and so on.

If the Rays continue to play well into 2016 and the Marlins tank then perhaps Fox Sports or some upstart end up in a bidding war wanting to make sure they get the Rays while the loser gets the right to pay bargain basement for the Marlins as their is less competition for the best sponsors at that point.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Well you don't get the same deal for less years, it's probably something liek 600/20 (30M Per), 400/15 (27M Per), 230/10 (23M Per)

These are certainly hyperbole, but work as an example that the TV stations want to be locked in and will pay more for the longer contract. The trick is to find the break even.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Agreed

it’s not as black and white as it seems, but I still think a deal could look bad in 5-10 years let alone 20

October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--

OTTOTD.com

by Sveet on Feb 16, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Program note for those living in the Bay area or listening on line

620 WDAE will broadcast an hour long town hall meeting with Joe Maddon at 10 AM this morning with no commercials. I think callers will be accepted

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2012 9:57 AM EST reply actions  

Big thanks to you sir, and bigger thanks to I Heart Radio

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

Crash course to the layman in what they do regarding platooning

“Jeff Keppinger crushes lefties, you’ll see him face lefties all year” Paraphrased

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

He's killing this thing

Would love to have a list of audio clips from this to reference throughout the season when the whining begins from the well-warmed up Rays fans

by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Love that discipline comes from behind closed doors, no reason to embarrass a guy

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Luke Scott can play in the outfield and infield, more flexibility

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

Put your feelings in your back pocket, pussy

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:27 AM EST reply actions  

I read good between lines

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Love it that so many guys are already training and lifting and that Longo lost some of his baby fat

Beej adding more muscle might not help his contact, but can’t hurt what he does get to

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:46 AM EST reply actions  

Nah, just that he's trimmed up a bit, former DRB poster Suttree had plenty of fat jokes for the lad last year

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions  

tell that fucker to stop pouting about his life and get back in here

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 16, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

Beyond my reach

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

The Drifters is an amazing book, still want to get to Torremolinos sometime

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:52 AM EST reply actions  

Haha, I've been around a lot of baseball players that do

Love the subtle dig at how stupid football players are

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:53 AM EST reply actions  

Baseball players are easily more stupid.

I love analyzing baseball and all, but baseball players can be so annoying.

by mr. maniac on Feb 16, 2012 11:14 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think 3 years of basketweaving makes you any smarter, football players and fans are far and away stupider

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Football fans for sure.

Football players are stupid compared to baseball players in another way. Baseball players are often delusional.

by mr. maniac on Feb 16, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

That was awesome, thanks 620, Joe, the hosts, the questions, really exciting stuff

Not sure there’s another manager that can build a bubble of trust as well as this guy

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:02 AM EST reply actions  

Ha

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd really like to see one also

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 16, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

With Keppinger getting all lefties as well makes you wonder how that's going to work

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm guessing the Joyce/Rodriguez thing is just managerial talk.

Last spring Maddon hinted that Brignac would play daily. That did not happen, even right out of the gate.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions  

That seems like the easiest solution, but it would be interesting to see if they sit Pena for the tough lefties instead of Joyce

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Remember all of the talk last year about Zobrist playing 1st?

http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110120&content_id=16468488&c_id=tb

games played = 0

They could use Keppinger at 1st since Zobrist is the superior defender at 2nd and defensive value is more important there.

by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Could always throw Scott at first in those situations.

Although ideally, you’d rather not zap Zobrist’s ability to shift around, nor have Keppinger as DH—I guess you could always sub Pena in later through that route though.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that happen at times.

I’m guessing their expected performance versus lefties favors Pena, but there’s potential future value to be gained in having Joyce face a few he usually wouldn’t.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't see Zobrist at 1B, beside it being a waste of his talents he's looked awful there in limited showing

He looked really uncomfortable receiving pick off throws.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions  

What's so beautiful about this discussion, it's being done with out the name Brignac mentioned even once

I think we’re all on the same page the 25th man will be Guyer or another bat

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

It's more likely to be Elliot Johnson than Guyer and I don't want to speculate on another bat as it's just wasted thoughts until it happens

I hope Briggy gets his swing fixed at Durham and can come contribute with the team at some point. The thought of EJ on the roster for more than a month or two is repulsive unless he can actually get some bunts down or make more contact.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

NO NO NO

You’re not seeing the big picture

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 16, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

When have the Rays given a plus defensive player away for nothing?

Guyer won’t be up for a part time or even the short side of a platoon role.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think it's going to be Guyer.

If they send him down it’s a sign they think he’ll be an everyday player in the future, and that they don’t want to waste service time bullets for a start or two a week.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

You had to go and ruin it.

Once Brignac has been mentioned, he won’t go back in the box.

by Whelk on Feb 16, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

this makes absolutely no sense.

why would you move our best defensive 2b off the position for our worst?

by rglass44 on Feb 16, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd be fine with at least seeing what he can do over there

If range is the beef for why he would make a poor SS and a mediocre 2B, but his hands and arm are fine then he might be a strong fit on a part time basis.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

The Rays media deal is so bad

I can’t help but wonder if MLB might fight (and chip in significant money) to get the current deal broken. As much as we talk about lack of attendance, our media contract is going to be a huge burden for us for several years even if we sell out the Trop every night.

by djp68 on Feb 16, 2012 4:51 PM EST reply actions  

As an addendum though

I have to say that a 20 year TV deal is incredibly short sighted and flat out stupid. That deal is going to look horrible in 10 years, let alone 20.

by djp68 on Feb 16, 2012 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

No chance in hell

Newscorp owns damn near all of the regional sports networks, and is MLB’s national tv partner. Messing with sunsports is messing with the power of fox as a whole.

by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 16, 2012 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

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