The Rays Tank: The Attack Of The Saber
We may be in a dead time of the year for baseball news, but that certainly doesn't mean there's a dearth of cool articles to read. In fact, there were a number of articles yesterday that featured some interesting -- and new! -- sabermetric research. If you're into such things, don't waste a moment and check out these three pieces:
- Matt Swartz continued his series on the price of a Win, and he finished his piece with a chart of the $/WAR that teams have spent in every year going back to 1985. To me, it's fascinating to see how prices remained relatively stable through the '90s, but then started to skyrocket come the '00s. It also seems like that inflation is increasing faster and faster.
- Jeff Zimmerman looked at how intentional walks can screw up a player's perceived walk rate and patience. In short, players that see a boost in their intentional walk rate also typically receive a bump in their unintentional walk rate as pitchers will be more cautious around them and give them non-intentional walks. So when you see a player that boosted his walk rate dramatically, you should first stop and see if that's because the player has truly improved their plate discipline, or in large part because pitchers are being more cautious with them.
- Bill Petti has done some recent research on park factors affect a team's chance of winning, and he followed that work up by looking at how park factors and ERA estimators relate. Are certain ERA estimators more effective in hitter- or pitcher-friendly parks? Do ERA estimators that include batted ball profiles gain importance depending on the park? It's some interesting stuff, and will hopefully lead to even more research down the line.
And now, on to other baseball articles. If research bores you, there are still plenty of fun reads this morning:
- Jeremy Hellickson and James Shields have two of the best changeups in baseball? Color me shocked!
- Being a product of the '90s, I learned a bunch from this Baseball Nation article on the history of artificial turf. I never knew why AstroTurf was invented, but the story with the Astros makes a bunch of sense.
- The Padres are the most recent team to score a new TV deal, and they're set to rake in upwards of $30 million each year for the next 20 seasons. By the time the Rays are able to renegotiate their current deal, they're going to be well behind the times at this rate.
- It got announced yesterday that O's starter Zach Britton is still dealing with a shoulder injury that has lingered from the end of last season. While it's bad news -- and speaks poorly on the O's management of their young pitchers -- it's worth pointing out that their new GM has made some strides this year to fix that problem in the organization. Who knows if it'll pay off, but they're at least moving in the right direction.
- Carson Cistulli was gracious enough to have me on FanGraphs Audio yesterday, where I hopefully didn't make too big a fool of myself. We talked about a number of Rays-related topics, including Brandon Guyer, Matt Moore, Scott Kazmir, and (of course) Casey Fossum.
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20 year tv deal?
Why? The market will look vastly different in 20 years.
Teams that signed deals just a couple of years ago are already looking like they settled for too little
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Could you imagine if the Rays had done a 20 yr deal in 2007 for what they signed to?
It would be all kinds of AJ Burnett bad
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
8-10 years sounds best
and the Rays should fight hard to get an opt-out clause in the contract. Maybe a 10 year deal with an opt out after 7. Financial security along with making sure they are getting the maximum revenue they can to compete.
by raysfaninminnesota on Feb 16, 2012 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
Rays will not be "behind the times" but ahead of them
I couldn’t agree more how the deals keep getting better and better at a time when other teams have locked themselves into long-term deals at what seems to be now undermarket prices. Rays will get a better deal by 2016 than teams got in the last five years. Hopefully anyways.
by raysfaninminnesota on Feb 16, 2012 9:43 AM EST up reply actions
I wonder how the Marlins situation affects this. I would think that the better the Marlins do the more it drives up the price for both, but
you look at the Texas deal where they are in direct competition with Houston and the Angels being in direct competition with the Dodgers. Both of the competitors look to be awful for the next few years which means an RSN would try harder to lock up the better looking team as it should lead to more advertising and so on.
If the Rays continue to play well into 2016 and the Marlins tank then perhaps Fox Sports or some upstart end up in a bidding war wanting to make sure they get the Rays while the loser gets the right to pay bargain basement for the Marlins as their is less competition for the best sponsors at that point.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
Well you don't get the same deal for less years, it's probably something liek 600/20 (30M Per), 400/15 (27M Per), 230/10 (23M Per)
These are certainly hyperbole, but work as an example that the TV stations want to be locked in and will pay more for the longer contract. The trick is to find the break even.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Program note for those living in the Bay area or listening on line
620 WDAE will broadcast an hour long town hall meeting with Joe Maddon at 10 AM this morning with no commercials. I think callers will be accepted
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Big thanks to you sir, and bigger thanks to I Heart Radio
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
I have a 10:30 meeting...FML
this is a fantastic idea…thx for sharing
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Love that mention that DanJo came up because there wasn't a runner on 2nd or 3rd, that they would rather go with the high contact Sam Fuld in that scenario
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
Crash course to the layman in what they do regarding platooning
“Jeff Keppinger crushes lefties, you’ll see him face lefties all year” Paraphrased
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
He's killing this thing
Would love to have a list of audio clips from this to reference throughout the season when the whining begins from the well-warmed up Rays fans
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
Quoting Camus, we're so fucking spoiled
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
"Wearing a $3000 suit on a charter plane - who are you trying to impress??"
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
You left out the best part...
“Who you trying to impress? The shortstop?”
Boom. Outta Here.
Follow @RyanGilliss
by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 16, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Love that discipline comes from behind closed doors, no reason to embarrass a guy
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
Luke Scott can play in the outfield and infield, more flexibility
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
1st crowd question was about sabermetrics
Was definitely not expecting that
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
Well you think every fan is a moran.
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
by SRQman on Feb 16, 2012 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Put your feelings in your back pocket, pussy
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
B.J. Upton is one of the nicest people I've ever met in baseball, but he's black playing in an area with ignorant rednecks so you can understand where there's frustration
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:35 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I read good between lines
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
Love it that so many guys are already training and lifting and that Longo lost some of his baby fat
Beej adding more muscle might not help his contact, but can’t hurt what he does get to
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
lol did he really say that Longo lost some baby fat?
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 16, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Nah, just that he's trimmed up a bit, former DRB poster Suttree had plenty of fat jokes for the lad last year
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
tell that fucker to stop pouting about his life and get back in here
9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
by pudieron89 on Feb 16, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Beyond my reach
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
The Drifters is an amazing book, still want to get to Torremolinos sometime
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Haha, I've been around a lot of baseball players that do
Love the subtle dig at how stupid football players are
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Baseball players are easily more stupid.
I love analyzing baseball and all, but baseball players can be so annoying.
I don't think 3 years of basketweaving makes you any smarter, football players and fans are far and away stupider
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:15 AM EST up reply actions
Football fans for sure.
Football players are stupid compared to baseball players in another way. Baseball players are often delusional.
That was awesome, thanks 620, Joe, the hosts, the questions, really exciting stuff
Not sure there’s another manager that can build a bubble of trust as well as this guy
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Hoping someone can post a recap
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Feb 16, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe Collette could post "How I cut time out of my incredibly busy talented important life to listen to Joe Maddon's Town Hall"
I keed, I keed
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Feb 16, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Ha
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
rec'd
now, back to my humblebragging
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
I'm trying out some transcription software to see if I can automate audio to text
I just don’t know how well it will understand Ron and Ian :)
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
Then upload that to xtranormal with Joe as a mad scientest and the hosts as clowns, ala
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3zuwF15Ios&feature=results_main&playnext=1&list=PL21E32209387E4E82
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I'd really like to see one also
joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:
"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong
Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."
Classic.
by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 16, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
He did mention that Rodriguez and Joyce are getting close to becoming everyday players.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
With Keppinger getting all lefties as well makes you wonder how that's going to work
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
I'm guessing the Joyce/Rodriguez thing is just managerial talk.
Last spring Maddon hinted that Brignac would play daily. That did not happen, even right out of the gate.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
That seems like the easiest solution, but it would be interesting to see if they sit Pena for the tough lefties instead of Joyce
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
I see that happening, especially with Zobrist going to 1B and Kepp at 2B
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Remember all of the talk last year about Zobrist playing 1st?
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110120&content_id=16468488&c_id=tb
games played = 0
They could use Keppinger at 1st since Zobrist is the superior defender at 2nd and defensive value is more important there.
by Jason Collette on Feb 16, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'd rather Kepp be the one at 1B, like when Felipe Lopez was on the roster
by Ben Tumbling on Feb 16, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Could always throw Scott at first in those situations.
Although ideally, you’d rather not zap Zobrist’s ability to shift around, nor have Keppinger as DH—I guess you could always sub Pena in later through that route though.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that happen at times.
I’m guessing their expected performance versus lefties favors Pena, but there’s potential future value to be gained in having Joyce face a few he usually wouldn’t.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see Zobrist at 1B, beside it being a waste of his talents he's looked awful there in limited showing
He looked really uncomfortable receiving pick off throws.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
What's so beautiful about this discussion, it's being done with out the name Brignac mentioned even once
I think we’re all on the same page the 25th man will be Guyer or another bat
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
It's more likely to be Elliot Johnson than Guyer and I don't want to speculate on another bat as it's just wasted thoughts until it happens
I hope Briggy gets his swing fixed at Durham and can come contribute with the team at some point. The thought of EJ on the roster for more than a month or two is repulsive unless he can actually get some bunts down or make more contact.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
When have the Rays given a plus defensive player away for nothing?
Guyer won’t be up for a part time or even the short side of a platoon role.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think it's going to be Guyer.
If they send him down it’s a sign they think he’ll be an everyday player in the future, and that they don’t want to waste service time bullets for a start or two a week.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 16, 2012 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
this makes absolutely no sense.
why would you move our best defensive 2b off the position for our worst?
I'd be fine with at least seeing what he can do over there
If range is the beef for why he would make a poor SS and a mediocre 2B, but his hands and arm are fine then he might be a strong fit on a part time basis.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
That was my takeaway from an hourl ong discussion too
Boom. Outta Here.
Follow @RyanGilliss
by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 16, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
"hourl ong"?
Boom. Outta Here.
Follow @RyanGilliss
by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrVgOuLRggI&feature=fvst
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 16, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
The Rays media deal is so bad
I can’t help but wonder if MLB might fight (and chip in significant money) to get the current deal broken. As much as we talk about lack of attendance, our media contract is going to be a huge burden for us for several years even if we sell out the Trop every night.
As an addendum though
I have to say that a 20 year TV deal is incredibly short sighted and flat out stupid. That deal is going to look horrible in 10 years, let alone 20.
No chance in hell
Newscorp owns damn near all of the regional sports networks, and is MLB’s national tv partner. Messing with sunsports is messing with the power of fox as a whole.
by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 16, 2012 8:15 PM EST up reply actions









![Matt Moore Wallpaper I made. :]
Here's the direct link
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