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Who's the Boss?

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Melvin "Bossman Junior" Upton was selected second in the 2002 MLB draft by the then Tampa Bay Devil Rays. It was a bit of a coup that he was available there as he was considered the top talent in the draft. In the wisdom that led to zero playoff appearances in his tenure, David Littlefield liked Bryan Bullington's ceiling as a "good number three pitcher" over the toolsy high school shortstop out of Norfolk, VA. After signing for the biggest bonus in the draft in September of that year, B.J. didn't see the field in a D-Rays uniform until the following season. Despite his lack of professional statistics, Baseball America ranked him as the 21st best prospect in their 2003 list speaking to his great tools and quiet confidence-he believed he could make it to the majors within 2 years.

Upton not only justified their ranking and faith by raking in A-ball and AA as an 18 year old shortstop (.297/.390/.431/.821 slash-line with 40 steals), but he also would end up justifying that quiet confidence Bill Ballew spoke to by appearing in his first big league game in 2004, his second season in the Devil Rays' organization. This quiet confidence-we'd surely call it "swag" now-along with his undeniable athleticism and lightening quick bat speed solidified him as my favorite young Devil Ray.

Star-divide

Throughout most of my history with the Devil Rays, I would get excited about a young player to see the league catch up to them, handled poorly, or a number of other failures that occur to a perennial 90-loss team. It started with chants of "Bub-Ba, Bub-ba" and continued with Jose Guillen's rocket arm. When we netted a former rookie of the year in Ben Grieve my misplaced hopes rose. After a 28-year old Randy Winn made the All-Star game, we traded him for a manager.

This time was different it seemed. There was a wave of former top picks rising through the system, and Upton had the most potential of them all as a shortstop who had all the makings to be a star. His defense was still raw at the position but the bat could seemingly play everywhere. Well after 48 games in the bigs in 2004, Upton would not come up in 2005 and did not play any shortstop when he came up in 2006 struggling at the plate. The highly touted prospect was seemingly struggling. His 2006 in AAA was worse than 2005 there, which in turn was worse than his 2004 there.

2007 was a different story. He struggled to find a home defensively, but he had a great year at the plate. He joined the 20/20 club in less than 130 games while posting a .300/.386/.508/.894 line. He posted his first four-win season (4.5 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR). He looked like he may have found a home in center field with his ability to cover a lot of ground with a canon for an arm. Things were again looking bright for Bossman Junior and his teammates. Then 2008 happened.

This was my first great summer of baseball. Out of seemingly nowhere, a franchise that had never before won 75 games showed its fanbase what it was like to be competitive all year. Unfortunately for Upton, a torn labrum suffered in May sapped his power and seemingly caused a big step back in his power from the year before. It was fine, though, as the team was winning; but this was the beginning of question about Upton's character. Benched twice in August by Joe Maddon, when the team was battling for a playoff spot, Upton's quiet confidence was characterized as sullen disinterest. Coupled with is struggles at the plate, some fans questioned his commitment to the team. Could he handle the spotlight that came with playing meaningful baseball? Upton's answer solidified his spot as my favorite player to don a Devil Rays' uniform in October of 2008.

BJ hit 3 home runs in the first series against the White Sox and 4 more in the ALCS against Boston. He was phenomenal in both series, and then had one of the most memorable moments of the playoffs in Philadelphia during the World Series. With the Rays down in the series 3-1 and facing elimination, a torrential downpour threatened to wash the Rays out early as they were down a run. Upton came up and seemingly willed his team to play another day.

Despite the heroics in 2008, the questions continued. He has never repeated his phenomenal 2007 at the plate, and some critics venture to call him a "bust" or argue that he has not lived up to expectations. The funny thing about that is that he has. In what is likely to be his final year as a Ray, Upton comes in as one of the five best center fielders since he moved to the position in 2007 (3rd in bWAR and 4th in fWAR of all players who have 75% of their starts in CF). Has he won an MVP? Has he been the best player on a team that's made the playoffs 3 of his 5 full major league seasons (a franchise with 0 appearances in its previous 9 seasons)? The answer to both of those questions is no. He has been at least a 4-win player in every season he's played more than 120 games but one. He has made some great plays in center field tracking down balls no one would expect him to get to. He has had one of the greatest clutch runs in baseball history. He has been my favorite player on my favorite team, and for that I thank him. While this may be his last season in the Bay Area, I hope it's his best as this is a team that could make a lot of noise if Upton ever does live up to any unrealized potential people still hold out hope for.

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Rglass, do you think that Maddon's positioning of Upton may be hurting his defensive numbers?

His range seems great, but the numbers aren’t that good. I’m sure the positioning is helping the team, but I’m not entirely sure it is helping Upton’s stats.

by mr. maniac on Feb 21, 2012 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

i think it's possible, but i think it's better for the team.

it does make me wonder if UZR undervalues his defense. he’s very good in cf looking at uzr and tz, so it’s hard to say.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Good read about one of my favorite Rays.

Entering his age 27 season , I think we are in for a treat. I really hope we extend him before he hits free agency.

by Peter Piontek on Feb 21, 2012 10:33 AM EST reply actions  

On the extension , I'd say he would take a deal similar to his brothers.

5 years 55 million and lets ink Price to a 4 year 50 million dollar deal and keep this thing going until 2016.

by Peter Piontek on Feb 21, 2012 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

Right after you donate $75M to the team

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Lol , or we could start working on a new TV deal

Granted it wouldn’t start until after i believe 2015 , we could use that money before if starts rolling in.

by Peter Piontek on Feb 21, 2012 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

25HR and 45 steals

While continuing to produce like he did in September of last year.

by Peter Piontek on Feb 21, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

Why would it be?

He’s now in his prime and I’m someone who thinks Upton can still get better. 25 bombs and 45 steals isn’t far off of what he did last year and to me that’s a pretty valuable player.

by Peter Piontek on Feb 21, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

Okay i see your joke angle now... He won't reproduce that line...

but if he plays somewhere in between his September/October line and his Career line , then we are in great shape. Unless he turns into Matt Kemp for the entire 2012 season.

by Peter Piontek on Feb 21, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

That's obvious

What if it’s more like his career line: .760 OPS, 3.5 WAR?

There is excess value in that for 12.5M, but not exactly 1M per 1WAR that the Rays need to be close to, especially with rising costs for other players like Price, Shields etc.

by Ben Tumbling on Feb 21, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm probably just dreaming but that's not really the Rays MO

most likely he’s playing somewhere else in 2013 , even if he blows up.

by Peter Piontek on Feb 21, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he'd accept a 1/12 new arby type deal, he's looking for security as much as anything

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree. 1/12 won't be his preference.

Point is that he is under-appreciated by majority of other baseball clubs (my impression). He might not get 12 per year from others if his batting average is still .240.

OTOH, the Rays will value him correctly but may not have the resources to gamble offering him 12M if they want to get back draft picks.

by Ben Tumbling on Feb 21, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

It will come down to competition at the position as much as anything

Center fielders
Alfredo Amezaga (35)
Rick Ankiel (33)
Michael Bourn (30)
Marlon Byrd (35)
Melky Cabrera (28)
Mike Cameron (40)
Curtis Granderson (32) – $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Scott Hairston (33)
Angel Pagan (31)
Corey Patterson (33)
Cody Ross (32)
Aaron Rowand (35)
Grady Sizemore (30)
Ryan Spilborghs (33)
B.J. Upton (28)
Shane Victorino (32)

I don’t think Granderson gets let go, but Bourn and Victorino have similar impact and Byrd is sneaky good. The jury will be out on Melky this year, so you could be looking at 3-5 very good players that can all stay on the position and provide something offensively. This might hurt Beej a lot so maybe he does take a 1/12 type thing then try the waters the following year. The 1/12 is essentially a franchise tag except the player isn’t locked in. I kind of like it, but we’ll see how it plays out in reality.

I doubt there are many modern GMs that underappreciate what Beej does. He’s a skillful defender in CF that brings pop and walks, but likely will never hit for a high average, consistently, due to the strikeouts.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 11:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks for the list

I can see BJ taking the 12M to get one more shot at a breakout season. 12M/1 for a chance at 18M/6. That could mean good bye to Shields or Price or both though.

by Ben Tumbling on Feb 21, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions  

mike cameron retired

and i think most people consider corey patterson retired

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Feb 21, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions  

It's a copy paste from MLBtr, take it up with them

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 8:46 PM EST up reply actions  

well what he's done pretty much every year so far would justify it on the market.

based on what we have internally and our resources i doubt we re-sign him unless, as stated below, we get him on the 1/12 arb thing.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

It's going to be a sad day when we all take our turns eulogizing the man

I, for one, will be incredibly saddened to watch his departure.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 11:32 AM EST reply actions  

Same here.

I’ll miss him more than Garza, Crawford, Pena, Bartlett, etc..

by mr. maniac on Feb 21, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Upton will easily get a $60mil deal as a FA

It’s the going rate. He’s worth it. The Rays don’t pay out that type of contract. End of story

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 21, 2012 1:13 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

I just wonder if he might get hurt by the market

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0

Bourn (14 WAR since 2008), Victorino (18), Granderson (18), Byrd (11), Melky (5) compare pretty favorably to Beej (16) over the last several years and you’ll have Jacoby most likely hitting free agency the following year. He’s certainly worth that deal, I just wonder if he might get low-balled with all that competition and ponder coming back for a year. Wishful thinking, I suppose.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah. the giants could be in play as well.

braves will be in play but have no money. phils may be as well.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 1:47 PM EST up reply actions  

giants cant afford him and their pitchers

plus they have gary brown waiting in the wings…i doubt they go for BJ.

Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.

by James Westfall on Feb 21, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions  

it would be awful to have to play against CC and BJ.

although it wasn’t that hard to root against CC after all the stupid shit he said last offseason.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 5:45 PM EST up reply actions  

One they wear that B hat

all bets are off.

WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now

Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw

by SRQman on Feb 21, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Do you really think they will go after him?

Victorino, Bourn, Granderson, etc.. are all “sexier” targers, so to say.

by mr. maniac on Feb 21, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

The Yankees have quietly refocused themselves on defense over the past few years

The only notable exception being the statue of Derek Jeter they left between second and third base.

by GomesSweetGomes on Feb 21, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't really think so

They don’t have any “defensive specialist” players on their team other than Gardner, who’s an absolute stud

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 21, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions  

"high school shortstop out of Norfolk, VA"

He is from Norfolk, but went to high school in Chesapeake, VA (Greenbrier Christian Academy).

by MakeitRayn on Feb 21, 2012 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

Who's the Boss

isn’t a food

"It was a little weird seeing Ashley running at me with a closed fist. That was a scary look."-Matt Moore

by CubFanRaysaddict on Feb 21, 2012 11:26 PM EST reply actions  

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