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The Rays Tank: First Workout For Pitchers And Catchers Today

So as it turns out, yesterday was something of a tease. The Rays' pitchers and catchers reported, but very little baseballs actually got thrown around; the biggest news of the day was that Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman held a midday press conference. Physicals were done and such, and the Rays set themselves up to have their first workout with all their pitchers and catchers today.

John Gregg will be at spring training camp over the next handful of days, and he'll be passing along some of his observations and notes both here and at Rays Digest. If you don't already, check out RD and follow along throughout the day. They already have an interesting piece up on Tim Beckham and his 2012 hopes.

And if you missed it yesterday, the other "news" right now is that Wade Davis is seemingly reluctant to move to the bullpen. Obviously we'll see how things play out over Spring Training, and at the end of the day, he's a professional and will have to adjust if the Rays decide to use him there. It's something to keep in the back of the mind, though.

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The over/under for wins by the Red Sox and Rays is way too low at 87.5.

I’d be very surprised if there aren’t 3 90+ win teams in the ALE.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 8:29 AM EST reply actions  

Ya.

Unless something catastrophic happens I don’t see anyway they aren’t at least a 90 win team. With the Rays a few key injuries that take people out for significant time could be much harder to overcome than with Boston.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions  

Right, but we're already assuming quite a bit will go wrong.

I do agree that their depth could hurt them, but at least offensively they have more people that could cover for their injuries that will happen. I still think 87.5 is low for both the Red Sox and the Rays. I think the Yankees will probably be above 93 if forced to choose and feel I would be right more often than not, but not with the same confidence as Boston and Tampa having 88+ wins.

I’d really have to run numbers on all of the AL though to know how confident, but at first glance just seems to be off by a few wins. I’d really have to see how the improvement in the AL will affect the teams even at the top since there are 6 legit teams here.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions  

The Rays might have had their best team ever in 2009 when they won 84 games so you can never really tell how it's going to break

Note that I’m playing devil’s advocate more than anything. It’s all rosy right now and you don’t get the chance to “win more than you lose” because unlike simulations the season only gets played once. This is a really good team, but they’re playing other really good teams a lot, especially right off the bat with 16/22 against the Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, Angels and Rangers. Here’s the 10 game moving average Win% of our schedule this year, I’m going to plug in these Vegas lines to see how much this changes, but we’ve got a tough row to hoe.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

I know but in the terms of an expected value of of the run would be above the 87.5 for both.

The schedule doesn’t help, but I’d still be surprised if 88+ doesn’t happen. I know anything can happen and wouldn’t 100% book it, but i’d say the odds of it happening are better than even. I’m going to try to put together something on the AL and run it against schedules or something and see how that affects it. When I ran WAR projections i had NY and Tampa as 97.5 and Boston at 96 wins, but I know with strength of schedule will push those numbers lower. I just have to see how much of an affect it will have.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

You also have to remember that they set these lines so that they can get 50% of the action on each side

They’re not exactly predicting how many wins each team will have but trying to find that demarcation line where half the fans will take the over and the other half will take the under.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions  

I know.

I think there is probably the factor of last season’s ending and they aren’t as good on paper as last season and only ended with 90 wins. Outsiders thinking the Rays can’t continue thier run of success or whatnot, but I just would be surprised if Boston or Tampa end up with 87 or less wins. I would be surprised but I also saw the end to last season and I wouldn’t think it’s a 100% possibility either.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  

It's right.

It’s why the line moves due to action already received in order to get it more towards the 50/50 so they can collect their vig and win regardless.

This is when dealing with 2 outcomes and not multiple scenarios with odds.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

They'll take the vig all day and just redistribute from one hand to another

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course, but we're talking in the aggregate here

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I've got time for that right now

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

the intro debunks themyth itself.

im sorry you dont want to learn and would rather just keep spewing untruths. i’ll wait for deadeye’s apology.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

also the common gambler almost never moves lines.

if all the joe schmoes bet on one side vegas is thrilled. its the smart money that moves the lines.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm sorry that some of us are self-made men that have to work for a living instead of silverspoon a-holes

I’ll get to that when I have some time and will then give my feedback instead of reading the introduction/abstract and thinking I know what I’m talking about.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I have no idea since I'm too busy to read that at the moment

I’m not about to change my opinion based on one piece of evidence, though Levitt is pretty persuasive when discussing other things I’ve read.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

You must read faster than me, 24 pages in 5 minutes is about 12 seconds a page, no wonder you're such a succesful businesman.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Obviously, you should read more than the introduction if you expect to speak eloquently on a topic

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

since it was in response to you saying that you didn't have time to read the intro...

i thought it would be valuable for you to know that it doesn’t take long to read the intro

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 21, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

News You Can Use with Fart McFarter

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm a little over half way through, Steven Levitt is a good read and as I expected

there is a bit of an affect here, but it’s not very dramatic, we’re talking an extra percentage point away from what I was saying. Congratulations.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Also Levitt is using straight bets for his study...

but there are some insights to be gleaned on the thought about the bettor’s mindset and the patterns that they show.If you want to look and win totals, I believe the Bucs were at 8.5 wins this year. Considering his thoughts on locals, I’m sure they had more money on the Bucs have more than 8.5 wins this year.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 21, 2012 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

think about it intuitively.

vegas has the ability to be better than the betting public at choosing games. if they also have the ability to guess how the betting public will bet they’d make more money by essentially leading the betting public to bet wrong. that way they make the vig in addition to what they make my being the best at their jobs.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions  

This seems like a pretty large assumption/caveat
6 Of course, it is not the number of bets on either side of a wager that the bookmaker wants to equalise, but rather, the total dollars bet on either side. In my data, however, all wagers are constrained to have the same dollar value, so the two are equivalent. If there are large bankroll bettors outside my sample who systematically bet against the prevailing sentiment of other bettors, conclusions based on my sub-sample may be erroneous.

He’s assuming that all bets are of equal denominations. Perhaps this is what you meant when you referred to sharps moving the line, but then what we’re talking about is equalizing the dollars on each side of the line, dawg.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not assuming anything, merely pointing out that it's asinine to assume that

20,000 wagers were all of the same denomination.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

so you're just nitpicking.

it’s part of the exercise. the entire case is not built on that assumption.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not to part 2 yet, but this seems like a pretty big underlying part of his study
First, I demonstrate that the bookmaker does not appear to be trying to set prices to equalise the amount of money bet on either side of a wager. In almost one-half of all games, at least two- thirds of the bets fall on one side of the gamble. Moreover, the spread chosen systematically fails to incorporate readily available information (e.g. which team is the home team) that would help in equalising the money bet on either side of a wager.6

It’s an interesting read so far, nonetheless.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah. i wish i could find the one article that i read while back by a vegas oddsmaker.

having trouble though. it may have been an excerpt from a book but i cant remember.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

I also take issue with the fact that this is a picks contest

This subset of bettors is not large enough to influence the line and they may be betting emotionally trying to “catch up” with their opponents. Like I said this is really interesting, but I’m pretty stubborn and don’t find what I’ve read so far to be enough to convince me that Vegas isn’t trying to keep the line between .49<p<.51 in the aggregate.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

For me, he could have just presented Table 3 and I would have been satisfied (p. 236)

48% of favorites won over the last 21 years, that’s enough to sway me that they do manipulate the bettor to an extent, but they can’t so far from .5 because astute bettors would rape them. I’d be willing to expand my initial range from 49-51 to 47.5-52.5 which kind of falls in between us, I think. It’s not as dramatic as I was reading you saying (which may be on my end) nor as stolid as I was saying.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 5:26 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah the magnitude isnt the issue.

the point is their aim. their aim is to maximize profits, so they arent merely trying to get 50/50 splits. the fact that it is often close to 50/50 is because bettors do a fair job of betting, and because vegas is always so close to the outcome. as such, the bets will group at 50%.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

Without the benefit of a crystal ball you wouldn't expect them to be able to perfectly align at 50% anyway

If they could perfectly distribute to the left and the right then they would also be able to set the line wherever they want because they would already know the outcome ala Biff Tanner

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions  

The gist is that if you agree that the books...

know how to correctly evaluate the teams and how to correctly determine how the public is going to bet on them why would they settle on making just the vig when they can make 20-30% by manipulating those factors.

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 21, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

finna sell so many more lemons now

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

your lucky that double counts.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

oh is that what i meant?

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

thanks, theirs precedent for this

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

There will be no apology as all you originally said is "no.it isn't"

I just asked for a reason which at the time you gave none. I’m not a degenerate gambler so I don’t give a shit.

Just go with it.

by DeadeyeRR on Feb 21, 2012 1:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm waiting for rosters to be finalized before running one more projection, but I think my last one had Boston with 96 wins, NY with 95, and TB with 94

That was with bunch of little things wrong so I’d expect each to shift around by 1-2 wins

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 9:56 AM EST up reply actions  

Who?

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I understand that it should.

But if your schedule has you playing against a higher WAR as average wouldn’t that have an affect on results.

I’m trying to think about how I can word this and do a test to see if my hypothesis is correct, but it would seem that the Runs/Win in games versus 2 teams that were both 95 projected teams would get pushed towards 81 for those games that they play each other. The same would happen against lesser competition but in the other direction too, but a strength of schedule component of some sort has to be in there I would think.

I could be totally wrong, but am going to try to think more clearly how to say and prove/disprove what I’m trying to mean here.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

It is, it's called run environment

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Like I said, the fact that the player is playing in the AL East doesn't matter at all as long as the projections understand it.

For example, lets say Zobrist is projected to be 4 WAR in 2011. It doesn’t matter if he is playing in the AL East, since the projections already know that. If he was in the NL West, his WAR would be (guestimate) 4.5.

Does that clear it up?

by mr. maniac on Feb 21, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I know what you're talking about, I think.

You’re basically saying if you take a 95 win true talent team and put them in a division with a bunch of 60 win teams that they’ll win more than 95 games. Whereas, switch those 60 win teams out for 90 win teams and that 95 win team might only win 90. Right?

Basically, you want a simulation, which PECOTA does to generate its playoff odds. It’s not about the WAR itself in that case, but they use the projections with a log5 simulation and run it like 1,000 times or whatever.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Which projections?

PECOTA adjusts for park, but not league or division to my knowledge. The guys already on the team, who have been here for years have that in-built to their previous performances, but a guy like Melancon isn’t being adjusted for heading to the ALE, no.

Maybe that’s something another system does, but I haven’t heard of it. That’s why if you have three or four teams near 90 projected wins, you should expect at least one, and maybe two of those to drop below the 90 win threshold. It’s not common to see three 90-plus win teams in one division, at least not if you’re expecting 95+ wins. Maybe 90 and a 91, and a 97 type deal.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't think it does.

I think it takes just the AL and NL averages. Where there’s a big difference since we’re in the ALE and have 16 games each against NY, Boston, Toronto where they’ll have higher true talents than most divisions. Since the true talents have them at 97.5 for NY and TB and 96 for Boston in my projection I’d have to regress it a little to the mean since we’ll play a more difficult than average schedule I’d assume (I don’t know this for fact, but would like to see how it would affect). Since for many of those games there will be 2 95+ true talent wins playing each other where the outcome can only be a 81 win pace.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes.

A way to project true talent into a general wins given their schedule. Ya it’s not about WAR but trying to correlate that into a projection for team wins.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, you'd wanna do some simulations using the log5 stuff.

I know Hot Standings do a dummy version of the PECOTA stuff using recent years records instead of projections. I couldn’t tell you if that cranks out better results or not. My guess is no—since it could overrate older teams and underrate younger teams—but it may even out.

I think people tend to forget that a true talent 90 win team isn’t going to always win 90 or more games. It’s like a bell curve, they’ll probably fall between 85 and 95, but they can win 87 and still be considered a true talent 90 win team.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes.

Many things will happen through the season and will account for the few games +/-. But to try to see where win totals are it would probably be correct to regress a division towards 81 than just looking at the numbers to try to see where things will end up.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

The other things these projections don't--and can't--account for is high-leverage results.

This sort of works to bullpen and bench strength. If you can do good things in high-lev spots, you should have a better win-loss record than you’d expect. The opposite is true, too. No way to account for it beyond “this looks like a good true talent bench” since it’s entirely results driven.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions  

It should, but again, you never know.

Remember September 2009? It felt like the pen—which had no business being that bad—blew a lead every other day. That cut into the record by at least a few wins.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions  

It works both ways.

Wasn’t it the 2008 team that had a ton of come from behind wins?

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep, illustrates the point about 2009, too:

2011: 32 comebacks, 26 blown leads
2010: 42 comebacks, 25 blown leads
2009: 40 comebacks, 32 blown leads
2008: 45 comebacks, 28 blown leads

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions  

RIP POW
Ah, yes. User “P Brady” On my shortlist of Those Who Stand To Gain Most In RJ’s Absence.

No longer the lacky. The flack. The floozy. The gopher. The small potatoes. The pinched and somewhat deformed testicle. P Brady – power that lurks…power that thrives untrammeled!. Free to paper these digital walls in so many shots of fan service. Yes. It’s you who may yet prove to be the agent behind this whole fucking catastrophe. I’ve compiled significant evidence – stolen IM records, wire taps, pleasant chatter with your mother – that proves you are just positively erect (your mother’s words) about Recifio Johannes Anderson leaving these shores of standard deviation.

Or do I?

Don’t slip up, champ.

Don’t bury yourself.

I’m always watching. Waiting. Connecting bits of yarn to 3×5 cards with colored pins.

Lead singer, songwriter, and caterer for the band Suicide Phoenix. We play sitar-based anthems on real estate law. Available for weddings, birthdays (13+, please), and LAN parties.
by PlayOnWords on Sep 10, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 8 recs

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 21, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions  

He's missed

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions  

hilarious

WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now

Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw

by SRQman on Feb 21, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I was at that game

Dropped a rebound of Longoria’s HR in that game when the dude next to me bobbled it. Some guy standing in the corona beach bar picked it up off the ground.

by Jason Collette on Feb 21, 2012 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Sp 4-9

Consecutive losses by: Howell, Balfour, Springer, Cormier, Sonny, Wheeler, Cormier

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 21, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's the chart with the 2012 Vegas Projections factored in

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions  

Besides a couple of relatively easy stretches, they don't really get a cake schedule until a brief stretch in mid-June

and then in late July to late August they get their easiest stretch before facing their most prolonged hard stretch to finish up the season. Could be plenty of teeth gnashing going into the trade deadline, but if they can stay within 5 games or so then they can really make hay post-deadline.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I think it's right to be conservative with how difficult the division is, similarly you can think Detroit is really high, but nobody else in that division looks like an 82+ win team

That’s an awful lot of free wins.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 9:30 AM EST up reply actions  

Ya the ALC is really soft.

And with the ALW having the Rangers and Angels having 2/3 of their division games against the Mariners and Athletics doesn’t hurt. Will make the Wild Card that much tougher and interesting to see how this season plays out.

by jtmorgan on Feb 21, 2012 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Good thing the Astros didn't come over this year

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Rays Offseason Review

Thanks for mentioning me in today’s Rays Tank! If you’re not a fan of slideshows, you can always check out The Rays Rant version of the article: http://yossif.mlblogs.com/2012/02/19/a-review-of-the-rays-offseason/

Yossi Feins
Chief Editor of TheRaysWay.com
Founder of The Rays Rant (http://yossif.mlblogs.com/)

by Yossi Feins on Feb 21, 2012 9:22 AM EST reply actions  

I'm wondering where Alex Cobb fits into this 2012 Rays picture

Joe Maddon has spoke highly of him in the past and i’m wondering if he’s advanced or will advance above Davis and Niemann very shortly

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 21, 2012 9:41 AM EST reply actions  

5th starter pressure

Niemann or Davis will be looking over there shoulder at the starter in the Rays pen and Cobb ripping up Durham. I feel Nieman will win the spot and get off to a great start allowing Davis to be moved down the line. Cobb will then be the first starter off the pine.

by sinkhole on Feb 21, 2012 9:52 AM EST up reply actions  

The smart thing to do at this point is let the trade come to them...

An injury in Spring Training or during the season could expedite a trade in the early part of the season. Or we could simply wait out and let some team that finds themselves in a race for their division come knocking for one of our starters. I think it’s important to remember that with presumably an extra wild card spot in 2012, that there should (in theory) be more teams feeling as though they have a shot at making that lost spot. So, if that holds true, we could have some people willing to deal when it comes time to improve their rotation.

by Snarfalicious on Feb 21, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Tiger Town

I’m about to drive over to Lakeland to check out the Tigers and pick up some tickets. Its poor marketing that the Rays don’t visit Tiger town this year.

by sinkhole on Feb 21, 2012 9:56 AM EST reply actions  

Rays aren't coming off the gulf coast for anything this year

They were in Kissimmee last year but everything is up and down I-75 this year and that sucks

by Jason Collette on Feb 21, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

waaaaaah

WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now

Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw

by SRQman on Feb 21, 2012 10:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Rising fuel costs

Chartered bus rides, after fuel, would run $69.42 a player to bring up this way, each way.

Bottom line

by Jason Collette on Feb 21, 2012 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

they're playing one game at Roger Dean Stadium on a tuesday that i'll try to make it to..

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh yea, the Miami game

I forgot about that one — easy drive across 75

While you’re there, go to Carmine’s for some food. It’s ~3m away and f’n worth it

by Jason Collette on Feb 21, 2012 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

There's better and cheaper italian in the area. I should know I've lived here 5 years now.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:29 PM EST up reply actions  

is it better because it's cheaper or is it just better?

thats why i hate yelpers. sometimes, i want to spend more for better quality. sometimes i want a great dive. the price points are given on the menu and they’re categorized by price, so i see no need to ding a place for price.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions  

well i mean it's in the same price class as a bunch of other regional chains. I don't go to upper end restaurants often...especially not for italian.

i don’t think i’ve ever used yelp for something in south florida, there’s just too many good and obscure options you can usually find a good place to eat by driving around and stopping at some place you’ve never heard of.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

but the market...

I get a nice lunch by the water and then shop in the market for stuff to bring home. Love it

by Jason Collette on Feb 21, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

all these carpetbagging golf players really created some nice shopping/eating venues from the dredged-up swampland of PBC.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Italian food as a whole is painfully overrated

Thai, Mexican, Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Spanish, Seafood, Greek, Middle Eastern, Indian, New American

These are all types of restaurants that generally have better food than Italian restaurants. At Italian restaurants you can get pasta with either a tomato or a cheese based sauce-whoop de doo

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 22, 2012 6:08 AM EST up reply actions  

theres some really fucking good thai here and cuban food around here. go figure.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 22, 2012 8:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Oh yeah I forgot about Cuban food, that stuff is also better than italian food

the point stands that italian food is actually like not that good (barring like pizza, but like the good pizza isn’t even made the traditional Italian way, it’s made the American way, so I don’t know if I give them that)

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 22, 2012 9:20 AM EST up reply actions  

lol

“new york style” doesnt touch real neopalitan pizza which you can find here in the states (especially in my backyard on a nice summer evening from my grill).

by rglass44 on Feb 22, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, this goober has no idea what he's talking about

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 22, 2012 9:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

I mean obviously fine dining is fine dining, but as far as the fine dining categories go, I’d put Italian below all the ones I listed. It goes without saying this involves personal palate preferences but that’s mine at least

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 22, 2012 10:25 AM EST up reply actions  

Rec'd for bobr going off-topic

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 22, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

All the major prospect rankings sorted by average ranking

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhdYS83t3IB7dGVnRDZIbXRfQ0UtSFM4bmJvRGpucnc#gid=0

I’ve also included standard deviation so you get an idea of where there’s a consensus and where these guys are divided

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 11:00 AM EST reply actions  

BP 2012 annual just got here, I've never read it more than flipping through POW's next to his shitter so I'm kind of excited

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

Hope you like it

I even dropped MOM & Magic of Kotch into the team essay

by Jason Collette on Feb 21, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

Ugh, I was hoping R.J. covered the Rays

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I was just kidding

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 1:19 PM EST up reply actions  

bwahhahaaha

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 21, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Keep in mind, comments are supposed to run like 150-200 words at most.

He turned in a few whoppers. Since it’s a print publication that stuff matters, so I had to break out the sheers.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

"sheers" - noted syndicated baseball publication editor Robot J. Anderson

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Joe on Molina
Maddon on C Jose Molina’s workload this season: ‘80 to 90 games is legit.’

Meaning the rookies are going to see some time back there

by Jason Collette on Feb 21, 2012 1:59 PM EST reply actions  

I don't see an issue.

It’s sink or swim time for Lobaton. If he can adapt, he’s got the catching and throwing down, and can hit for a little power and get some walks. The concern is that he strikes out too much and won’t be able to make it in the majors. Hopefully Chirinos improved on defense over the winter and in the spring, just in case they need him by June.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I think can put up a 575-600 OPS in MLB

Nevin Ashley: He’s Better Tahn Drew Butera

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 21, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

U-C-F

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Really enjoyed watching him the couple of times I got to

I was pretty close at a game at Rochester watching him warm up Torra and his catch to release is like lightning, just a blur on the transfer.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I think you can also argue that Chirinos is going to get the priority treatment if they believe in his bat.

So Lobaton’s shots at making it here are running thin. The worst thing for him would be getting hurt again.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Wouldn't have guessed him either.

I did some pop times on Molina earlier in the offseason, I don’t know that he ever took two seconds or more to get the ball to second base. Impressive at transferring. I also wonder how much of it comes from his set-up. I didn’t note it for every throw, but there are times where he’s not square with the plate.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

If I recall correctly, Toby said his times were good.

It seemed to me that he wasn’t delivering the ball in a location where the fielder could make a play on the runner

Boom. Outta Here.

by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 21, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions  

That's possible.

Let me see if I can’t search for his pop times comment and find out which game he’s referencing.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 2:55 PM EST up reply actions  

From 7/30:
His times to second are fine…
by td32 on Jul 30, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up actions

Well then his accuracy blows, because it’s never even close.
Maddon’s Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
by Doug09 on Jul 30, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up actions
I know this is hard to believe, but the pitchers have something to do with SB’s
His accuracy hasnt been great, but his times over all have been solid…

by td32 on Jul 30, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up actions

“I know this is hard to believe, but the pitchers have something to do with SB’s”
Thanks, I had no idea that played a factor.

Maddon’s Mission
Make you want to kill him, then make you want to love him. Sly.
by Jonah Keri on Jun 19, 2010 10:31 PM EDT
by Doug09 on Jul 30, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up actions
glad to educate ya
by td32 o

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Doug is the man

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

MMTN

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll let maniac do the pop times stuff.

I would request that he mark where the ball was thrown (i.e. left of 2b from the catcher’s POV and low). It won’t be perfect, but it gives you an idea of accuracy. If he’s throwing the ball to the shortstop side constantly then yeah, that’s a pretty big problem.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll work try to get it done by the weekend.

I’ll get the pop times and I’ll give a general location for where he is throwing it. I think Price may have a lot to do with his SB numbers.

by mr. maniac on Feb 21, 2012 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm completely fine with this, you're asking Lobaton to catch 1-2 games a week, you can PH for him in the 6th-7th so you're talking maybe 5-6 PAs a week for Lobaton, over the first 3 months that's 65-80 PAs

Chirinos is going to be around a 95 wRC+ or better in my mind so I just hope he can work on that glove to hand transfer or whatever it is that’s slowing him down

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Does he not walk enough or something?

Or are you just hoping he continues to do what he’s doing in that area?

And I hope that he hits for ANY power, but I really doubt it.

Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Feb 21, 2012 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

The concern is that he just isn't a good enough hitter.

The power, walk, and strikeouts combo suggests he’s maybe a guess hitter that gets lucky in AAA. So if he keeps the power and walks with out the Ks killing him he’ll be fine, but if the Ks go up and he loses the power and walks becxause he’s overmatched then he’s screwed.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 7:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's a crazy idea:

if we don’t feel there is a legit chance at trading for a catcher, why not sign Pudge? We can just go with great defense all year, and the offense between him and Molina couldn’t possibly be that bad. We might need some help from Chiriton whenever an injury occurs or late in the season, but, like I said, if the Rays don’t feel we can get a catcher some time this year, I would like this. Any thoughts?

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 21, 2012 3:13 PM EST reply actions  

I would rather have nothing than a guy that's been living on rep

I mean I would literally rather play with an extra outfielder or something and just go without a catcher. I’m serious about this.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions  

agreed.

his bat is done. i think his defense is getting by on reputation and a propensity for calling fbs with men on base.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

His D numbers seem pretty good.

I might be missing something though.

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 21, 2012 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Pudge will stil throw out over 33% of runners, block balls, call a good game and work with young pitchers well

At probably less than a million dollars, he should be considered an option this spring. And when you consider that Molina won’t play more than 60-80 games, and Lobaton/Chirinos have injury concerns, who will the Rays turn to if Molina gets hurt and misses significant time? Can’t see them comfortable with who is on their roster now.

Not advocating Pudge but he is experienced insurance, who would not be expected to be a full time catcher. I would rather pick up a roster casualty like Paulino, Teagarden, Tatum or Pena(or other option) as ST unfolds.

by budman3 on Feb 21, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Fast had his pitch framing runs at (CS%):
2007: 5 (31%)
2008: 0 (32%)
2009: -6 (35%)
2010: 5 (34%)
2011: 1 (52%, 13/25)

With his R/120 at 2 so he’s above average there, barely, and it looks like you can count on him to throw out a 1/3 of baserunners. Bojan has him as the 19th best blocking catcher from 2008 – 11, but all these things said, I feel like Lobaton can throw out 1/3 of runners, get average calls from umps, and block balls as well as the top quarter of catchers. In addition, maybe he puts up a better than .250 wOBA which is where Pudge is headed. I feel we were a bit harsh on the backlash, because Pudge is not what he was. He’s not very good now, but he’s still better than a lot of options and could come on the cheap. None of this addresses your point about him being a dick, which we don’t need here.

I’d consider him more after looking at the numbers, but I think Chiriton makes a good enough backup to at least get us into the last 3rd of the season when a new option may present itself.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 22, 2012 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

That's not really true

I’ve got all but around 600 pitches from 2011 for the Nats and best I can tell is that they are all apart of the “Other” category. Pudge called less fastballs with a runner on first than he did overall and much fewer than the other catchers (mostly Ramos and Paulino). He also did not benefit from calling any pitchouts in that situation. I don’t disagree with your overall premise that Pudge is through, but I found this an interesting thought to state as fact based on visual evidence and wanted to see if the numbers bore it out. They do not.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 23, 2012 10:56 AM EST up reply actions  

I am putting an emphasis on veteran experience to handle a game and a staff for a substantial period of time

A legitimate contending team that is counting on a young staff to lead the way can ill afford to have young cathers take on that responsibility for perhaps a long stretch of time(considering the age and injury concerns of Molina/Lobaton/Chirinos), IMO.

by budman3 on Feb 21, 2012 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

he is awful with staffs now.

how the hell do you figure we have a young staff? we have more playoff pitching experience than nearly any team in baseball. give me a break. this is an awful idea.

by rglass44 on Feb 21, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Hellickson, Moore, Cobb...

Davis is only in his 3rd full season and Price has still shown he struggles at times to mix up his pitches and show confidence in some of throwing certain pitches through stretches of games. Having play-off experience(even successful ) only amounts to a total of Price(22 IP), Davis(7IP), Moore(10 IP), and Hellickson(4 IP) is not as quantitive as you claim.

And please show me a link that says no pitcher wants to work with him. It’s an only an awful idea if you refuse to see what he can bring to the team(including mentoring young catchers) as an experienced back-up.

by budman3 on Feb 21, 2012 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

You could say the same about a lot of contending teams and the Rays would still fall short on the experience list

Even with Shields, Rays staff has only 12 post season starts….Yankees(27), Red Sox(39), Angels(17). I would think they have plenty of play-off run experience too.

You have numbers to indicate that Pudge calls only FB’s with runners on? I’ll believe it when I see it.

by budman3 on Feb 21, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Nobody knows how he works with staffs outside of teams

It doesn’t speak well for Pudge that he’s still without a job. Not after backup catchers like Matt Treanor got $1 million this offseason. If he were some savant at game-calling some team out there would’ve added him. Either he’s asking for too much money, he’s not as good at the intangible things that his name would suggest, or some combination thereof.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 11:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Nobody should expect much out of Molina's bat, and he's still got 20-something OBP points on Rodriguez.

Also, if you want to talk about the staff-handling, that’s fine, but Lobaton did work with some of these guys in the minors. I guess you can question his competence, but I don’t know how, seeing as we’ve barely seen him catch in the majors.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 11:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Valid but his number of games caught per season has been decreasing the last 4 years as well

Which is one of my concerns(as with Chirinos’ health) along with Molina. The Rays catching staff appears very fragile and inexperienced after Molina. Which is why I think AF was looking for more catching options this winter and is likely still interested at this point.

by budman3 on Feb 21, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Lobaton's durability is a question, no doubt.

I would point out that Ryan Hanigan—the only confirmed name—isn’t exactly a catch-and-throw type though, as he has the third highest OBP amongst catchers since 2009. Without knowing who else—if anyone else—Friedman inquired on, I can’t really say if they were interested in adding a backup type or someone who might be blocked on a catching-strong team.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 21, 2012 11:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Welcome to "Legendary Hater" status

It’s well-earned.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

i meant no disrespect, your people do a great service to the picnickers of our great country.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 21, 2012 7:25 PM EST up reply actions  

Saving your heart for pennies should be an everyday occurrence.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 21, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Amen.
how pathetic. the times and marc topkin glorifying someone who prostitutes herself in playboy magazine. and longoria being mesmerized by this taker. how can that be good for evan longoria in the long run? does anyone have the guts to tell him he is being used? dude, back pedal fast and talk to your pastor while you are at it. get yourself clean, man. out.

by Hatfield on Feb 21, 2012 8:53 PM EST reply actions  

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