Rays Composite Projections
by Jason Collette on Feb 25, 2012 1:24 PM EST
in Features & Analysis
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PrintMLB Fantasy 411's Cory Schwartz provides a nice service each season as he collects the projections from the best systems out there and puts them into a composite file. This way, any outlying projections are offset by more neutral projections. This is a nice favor for Rays fans because rather than snoop around to the variety of sites offering projections to see how each of the Rays are being treated by projection systems.
Here are how the hitters are projected:
And here are how the pitchers are projected:
Quick thoughts:
- My goodness, look at all of those strikeouts
- Eight players in double-figures for home runs.....just like last season
- +14 in steals from last season
- The glory of projections.....shows a +186 for runs and +361 for pitching strikeouts
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Rays have to get to 2M in total attendance somehow
by Jason Collette on Feb 25, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
20M according to SF1
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 25, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
you really need to think about a prom date, instead of concern over my typo
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Feb 25, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 7 recs
Are you allowed to be within 200 ft of a school?
Want to go with me?
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 25, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
sterny goes green twice in the same thread
Looks like somebody came to camp in the best shape of his life!
Use the force, Lueke
I'd assume half of the 46 would be road games
would 23 more home games put us over the top at last year’s pace? not sure…
Use the force, Lueke
Reid Brignac just doesn't get it
Read the article on him in today’s Tampa Bay Times
Color him gone
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Really Reid? You posted a sub 500 OPS, but let's do it your way--later
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
That's just an awful read
You were the worst hitter in baseball last year and not too great away from Camden Yards before that, but your way? 2% chance he makes this 25 man roster, 98% chance he is on someone else’s.
by Jason Collette on Feb 25, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
What is the hangup with these guys dating former Playmates?
I keep seeing it in stories….good for them. Brignac knocking one up proves he hit at least one thing last season
by Jason Collette on Feb 25, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
lol read the article and you guys are overexaggerating like crazy
9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]
I actually liked his mentality.
I feel this nonsense about his uppercut has gone too far. He has always (yes, always) had this uppercut. When he had success, he had the uppercut. When he has failed, it has been with the uppercut.
Right now, his issue is plate discipline and just hard contact. Who knows? Maybe there is truth in what he said. Perhaps his aggressive power approach in the lower minor has been missing because coaches have been teaching him to raise his batting average. Maybe he just isn’t swinging so hard.
So often with a player people need to find something to blame. For Brignac, someone suggested his uppercut and it has taken off.
The same applies for hitting and pitching coaches. We don’t know what the real problem is. I see no reason to blame the uppercut when it very well can be a mentality or some physical factor.
Whatever it is, I hope he rebounds. But let us not pretend that the uppercut is his whole issue. I have MLB TV, and his swing hasn’t changed one bit since he has come up to the majors.
That his swing hasn't changed is exactly the point
The extreme uppercut is generally a bad swing b/c it puts the ball is in the swing path for such a short period of time. It takes a very talented hitter to succeed with that sort of swing. (Griffey Jr.? Anybody else come to mind?) If Reid doesn’t adjust, he makes it easier and easier for major league pitchers to get him out.
Use the force, Lueke
He wouldn't be the first player to succeed with an uppercut.
Like I said, scouts loved it back then. And none of us no if the swing is the issue. Reid is a power guy too, so having loft isn’t a bad thing.
The problem is not that he has an uppercut
Most good hitters do. It’s the degree of the uppercut, and that he seems incapable of adjusting when the pitch requires a more direct swing path (as in, a pitch up in the strike zone). And I’m not real fond of when a coaching staff sounds like they are telling a guy “this is what we’d like you to work on” and the player saying “um, that’s okay, I’m good!”
Use the force, Lueke
by nomoredevil on Feb 25, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you on the end.
I can’t agree with you on the beginning because that is something that no one knows.
He hasn't succeeded above A+ in a large sample size though
That does not bode well
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 25, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
2007, 2009, and 2010 were good enough, I'd think.
He wasn’t as far above league average hitting as in 2006, but for his position, if he had any of those years again, I don’t think many people would be complaining too badly.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 25, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
A league average bat in AAA converts to a well below average bat in the bigs
But you’re right, his hitting wasn’t as bad as I initially thought
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 25, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Don't tell rglass
/Beckham’d
@staplemaniac
by staplemaniac on Feb 25, 2012 10:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I know this is a joke comment, but Beckham is younger, so he still has a chance to learn to master AAA
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Jennings didn't really "master" AAA.
If Becks’ glove is as legit as I hear, I’d be happy if he OPS’s in the .750’s. The dropoff from AAA to the majors doesn’t have to be THAT drastic.
I consider AA and AAA (the high minors) to be roughly equivalent
All the way back in 09, deezy put up a 400+ woba across the two
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 1:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
why so high on Brignac?
What has he ever done but for one full season at AA with a .760 OPS?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
From a +5 defensive shortstop at the trop, a wOBA of ~.295 is needed to be a league average player
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
His glove is already good enough to stick on a ML roster, and there was legit power potential not too long ago.
I don’t think he’ll ever be the 25 double/10 HR guy he sorta projected to be, but I can understand why people want to be patient.
I don't see the Rays allowing him the luxury of rebounding from last year.
It was so awful, in so many ways that few if any have ever bounced back from career lows of that degree.
I think he’ll be dealt in a minor deal or hopefully as part of a package with a pitcher.
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
I don't think he'll be dealt immediately
The Rays don’t sell low. They’ll at least attempt to rebuild value first
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball Reference lists 10
players as most similar to Brignac through age 25, and all 10 have a similarity score of 965 or more.
None of them had an offensive season as bad as Brignac’s, but on the other hand, neither did any have an OPS+ as high as 92 as Brignac did the year before (or in a smaller sample, an OPS+ of 95 that he had in 2009).
Among those 10, a few had pretty decent careers, the best probably by Rance Mulliniks. Others who had some acceptable seasons include:
Tom Foley: From age 26-29, his OPS+ ranged from 88-96
Ramon Santiago: From age 27-31, from 81-129
Scott Fletcher: From age 26-31, from 75-105
Desi Relaford: From age 26-29, from 69-118
They were generally part time players, and none had an OPS+ of 29 in as many PAs as Brignac had, but over approximately the same number of PAs at the same age, all were within a few points of Brignac’s OPS+.
I don’t think there is enough data in the history of baseball to draw any conclusion about his ability to bounce back. (I did not check whether some players may have been even poorer than Brignac-rather than similar-and still developed into useful players.)
The first link in the article explains it
R & RBI do not correlate
W, SV, & games do not correlate because it is a composite of 12+ projection systems
by Jason Collette on Feb 25, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Isn't a composite basically just an average?
Why would averaging have such a wonky effect?
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
Most of the projections don't have it based on a season worth of ABs or IP for the team.
Just a projection based upon the past and has us running basically a 6 man rotation without the top 2 getting less time because of it.
There are almost 7,000 PA if you add up AB+BB and almost 1,800 IP.
Nice timing, on Friday I put together CAIRO, PECOTA, and Zips for over 700 batters about to do the same for the pitchers.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
In sort of a contrast to Brignac's article here's Badenhop:
“The Marlins were like, ’This guy can go one inning for us or back-to-back nights, or if we need him to go four, he can,” Badenhop said. "And that was a valuable asset for them. But the way the Rays run their ‘pen, I think I’m more valuable in terms of how I get my outs. And they’re a much better defensive team. Stats will show that. So obviously, I’m more valuable on the mound when I have a better defense behind me.
“That’s of the utmost of importance to me. I’m going to strike out a decent amount of guys, you know. But I’m not going to strike out 10 per nine [innings] or nine per nine. I’m having the guys hit the ball and keep it in play. And it makes sense. When guys are in the right spot and when guys can make plays, I’m going to have more success. So it’s not rocket science. It’s just logical and it’s great.”
Its a good read.
Hellickson could've said the 2nd paragraph there.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 26, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
But he isn't talking about major league players.
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
That's awesome, guy really "gets it"
He should fit in well here.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 26, 2012 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
And Wade Davis had to clear up his comments (for some reason):
“I’m like look, this is all completely untrue, the trade talk,” Davis said. “I don’t know who would say it or why, but it represents me in a horrible way, because that has nothing to do with my approach to this year or the team. I want to be a part of this team regardless.”
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 26, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'd encourage everyone to listen to BP's latest podcast.
Lots of Rays talk. Some highlights:
- Parks says Archer might have the best slider in the minors (also praised Bush’s slider) while saying he thinks he might be a reliever in the end.
- KG suggests the industry vibe is that Wilking Rodriguez will open in Montgomery—and in the bullpen.
- Guerreri love
- Mahtook love—Parks said he played like a major-leaguer in the AFL.
I love Mahtook. Will be interesting to see what happens to Archer
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
yes, I also am very high on Mahtook
Think he could be up sometime in 2013?
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 26, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
I'm more confident in Archer sticking than Colome.
Mahtook should be a big-leaguer. Probably not an impact type, but that’s great value at that point in the draft.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 26, 2012 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Wilking gets a ton of love from scouts.
I should have voted for him earlier in the community prospect list.
I'm a bit surprised he'd move to the pen before Colome.
But then again, he had injury issues, so that may have precipitated the move—should it happen.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 26, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Yup, the 24th.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16108
The Rays segment is where all the info I posted is.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 26, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I have no idea why in the world Golstein is writing Romero off as a reliever.
I really like Goldstein though. Funny nice guy. Not the biggest fan of his work, but he goes through his stuff logically.
Just listened to the Callis/Law part.
Unsurprisingly, all three have good points. Law mentioned that he thinks Lee could be a four-win player at some point. Not much Rays talk in that segment otherwise, but worth listening to if you like prospecting talk or want insight on how they form their lists and how guys can move up/down from drafting to spring without playing in a regular season game.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 26, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
Good thing the Rays didn't go after Zumaya.
Guess he tore his UCL and will miss the entire season.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
fallacy of the predetermined outcome blah blah
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
huh?
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 26, 2012 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
He's saying there's no guarantee Zumaya tears his UCL had the Rays signed him.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 26, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
oh gotcha.
I think there’s a significant chance, given his injury history. I doubt the Twins really overworked him at this point of spring training.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 26, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think it much mattered where he went, but that's the only thing I see in your comment that fits his response.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 26, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
about 6'
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
by sternfan1 on Feb 26, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
lol
joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:
"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong
Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."
Classic.
by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 26, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah that's what I was saying
I mean you can’t be certain that the same thing would’ve happened to him with the Rays
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 26, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, but you don't have to be such a dick about it.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 26, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm a paragon of happiness, sir.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 26, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Technically I guess.
But its not like he wouldn’t have been doing anything different with the Rays.
If your arm blows up after 13 pitches it was probably going to blow up anywhere you went.
OT: Anyone expect any kind of notable signing before the games start?
I’m kind of surprised we haven’t added some RP on a minor-league deal yet. Wuertz, Gonzalez (both would be sweet), Chris Young (?). Nady, Gload, Pudge (haha). Ideas?
joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:
"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong
Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."
Classic.
We need Joey for this stuff.
Where is again? Banned? Or did he just give up trying to splel correctly?
joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:
"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong
Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."
Classic.
by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 26, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
That was nice have you.
Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 26, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
I think people are under-rating Hellickson this year
if he can regain his command (and not have the tightest strike zone seemingly the whole season) which given his history he should. I’m expecting closer to 200 innings and 160 K
I think generally everyone agrees on the following things on Hellickson
1) His peripherals did not support his performance last season.
2) His peripherals were not as good as they were expected to be last season.
3) His peripherals should improve going forward.
I haven’t really seen anyone “low” on him
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 27, 2012 12:13 AM EST up reply actions
He'll be interesting to see next year for sure
Then again, who won’t be? I guess we basically know what Sam Fuld brings to the table. Joel Peralta is also a highly known commodity.
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 27, 2012 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
He had a 2.8 last year if you average fWAR and rWAR, you're not really going out on a limb here.
Each system has gaping flaws that cover each other nicely when averaged together.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 27, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
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