John Sickels Releases Top 120 Prospects List; Five Rays Make The Cut
by Steve Slowinski on Feb 27, 2012 10:00 AM EST
in Prospects
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PrintJohn Sickels is SB Nation's resident prospect maven, and every year he comes out with top prospect lists just like Keith Law, Kevin Goldstein, and Baseball America. You can find his Top 20 list for the Rays here, and Sickels just released his overall Top 120 prospects list.
Five Rays made the cut:
2) Matt Moore
58) Hak-Ju Lee
94) Mikie Mahtook
102) Alex Torres
107) Taylor Guerreri
I haven't looked too closely, so it's possible that other prospect lists do this too, but the rankings in the Top 120 list don't line up exactly with his Rays top prospect list. He had Mahtook as the Rays' sixth best prospect, yet he jumps up to third from this angle. He also ranked Alex Colome as one of the Rays' fourth best prospect, but he doesn't show up on the Top 120 list. I know you can't expect perfection when you're making huuuge prospect lists, but it strikes me as interesting.
So it appears like Keith Law was the outlier in ranking Hak-Ju Lee so high in his top 100 list, as most of the other prospect gurus have him in the later half of the top 100. Otherwise, it doesn't look like there's too much of note here. I'm excited to see Mahtook ranked so high, and even more excited to see how he does this season.
Thoughts? Impressions? To give these rankings some context, here's a composite prospect rankings list from Rays Prospects.
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he has colome on his just missed list.
the top 20 linked is also “preliminary,” so i’m guessing he changed the order in his book.
I read the second half of the title as: "Rays Make Five Cuts"
And then saw Matt Moore and Hak-Ju Lee’s names and promptly passed out in a pool of my own sick.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
by BWoodrum on Feb 27, 2012 10:13 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
John Sickels at some point had Reid Brignac rated above Evan Longoria--Need we continue?
follow me on twitter @sternfan10
Here
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/9/26/2450383/top-50-hitting-prospects-from-2007-in-review
Brandon Wood 2, Andy LaRoche 4 — and a LOT of people did this. Prospecting is like batting average, if you hit .350, you’re fantastic
by Jason Collette on Feb 27, 2012 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
SHUT IT DOWN!!!! LET'S GO HOME!!!!!!
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
Dood's a hack, anyone that gives him any dollars would be better off giving that to donation to an heroin addict
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 27, 2012 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
What makes you sure he isn't a heroin addict?
by Ben Tumbling on Feb 27, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions
if being a heroin addict is wrong i dont want to be right...
sandy why do you hate sickles?
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Feb 27, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, we do need to continue.
In Dec, 2006, he ranked Brignac #2 in the system and Longoria #3. He graded both as A-. His remark on Brignac was that he had a breakout offensive season at Visalia and Montgomery, hitting over .300 at both places with power. His remark on Longoria, after his first pro experience at 4 levels, was simply a question about his plate discipline given his 38 BBs in 496 PAs and 1 BB to 20 Ks in his 109 PAs at Montgomery where he hit .267/.266 (BA/OBP). Hardly an egregious error on Sickels’ part. On that list he had Delmon #1 and included McGee, Niemann, Davis and Hellickson in his top 10 with Jennings an Honorable Mention.
One year later, he placed Longoria at #1 with an A grade and moved Brignac down to #5 with a B+ and at the end of that year, he moved Brignac further down to #10 with a C+ (at which point he also had Moore at #9). He always notes the fluid nature of grades and ranking and as more evidence piles up adjusts his thinking. Obviously, in particular with prospects just starting out or in low levels, the likelihood of significant changes is more common. His ranking in 2006 of Brignac one step higher than Longoria with the same grade and for the reasons given was perfectly reasonable.
I think it more admirable to leave room for the evolution of an opinion as evidence accrues and arguments are made than to make blanket assertions that lead one at the end either to crow about having been correct or to simply admit having been wrong.
by bobr on Feb 27, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
If he had any idea how to scout then he wouldn't rely solely on numbers that lead him to say things like Reid Brignac is a better prospect than Evan Longoria
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 27, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Brignac was a pretty highly rated prospect after Visalia
hindsight is 20/20
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
*highly rated prospect by everyone
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Briggy has worked out better than greg Reynolds who was drafted just ahead of Longo
Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla
by FreeZorilla on Feb 27, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
So you're telling me if there is anyone we shouldn't listen to
it’s the Colorado Rockies scouting department
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Yes, based on inflated numbers in a hitters ballpark, not due to a scout's eye
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 27, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions
Just saying it's not like Sickels was the only one who rated him highly
BA had him as the 17th overall prospect going into 2007 ahead of CarGo, Ryan Braun, Clayton Kershaw, Billy Butler. Only 2 spots behind Tulo
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Just saying that these are writers in the public sphere not scouts that are with a team. They relay opinions not develop them and if you have enough contacts you can find someone to confirm your narrative.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 27, 2012 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
I agree,
but that is not the point. He did not really say Brignac was a better prospect. Ranking them 2-3 means virtually no distinction, especially as both received an A- grade. But more to the point is that in 2006 there was little to go on. Any and every rater, including scouts, is going to make errors. Pointing to one such as Brignac/Longoria to suggest Sickels is unreliable is absurd.
Essentially he was saying that both were excellent prospects based on the available information. He may have slotted Brignac higher because he already had a few years experience rather than because he considered him better. Or perhaps he considered a shortstop with good power potentially more valuable than a third baseman.
Will we forever mistrust Friedman for exposing Hamilton to the rule V? Or for acquiring Guzman from the Dodgers or Gibson from the Nationals? My point is simply that simply knowing that he ranked Brignac higher at some point is not enough to make any judgment about Sickels’ reliability as a prospect mavin.
It's but one example in a long list of issues that I have with him.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 27, 2012 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
My issue is that he isn't really any different than you or I making a list.
His sources seem limited.
On that, I definitely defer to you.
I read Sickels and like his style and tone, but am not expert enough to evaluate his judgments. It seems to me he keeps an open mind, and many of those who post on his site also raise interesting points and issues. It is certainly possible that, as mr. maniac says, his sources are limited, but he does explain why he makes choices that he does, and I generally find those explanations worth considering.
My quarrel here is probably over a casual post not intended to be examined very seriously. But I was curious about a statement that at some point someone ranked Brignac higher than Longoria and wanted to see what actually happened. In my view, while technically true, it is misleading, and in any case, by itself does not suffice to diminish the credibility of his judgments. Obviously you see it as part of a larger pattern of poor judgment, and I cannot dispute that.
I'm with you.
Even though I read Sickels, I can’t speak to his ability to scout and rank prospects. However, his eye for cheesecake is unparalleled.
i support casual racism
by Boddington on Sep 19, 2011 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I literally wish I had killed myself on the train station after I got laid off
by Sean O on Sep 28, 2011 7:49 PM PDT
I want a BUC'N criminal investigation.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Sep 28, 2011 7:48 PM PDT
by internet commenter on Feb 27, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
This should be the site's mission statement:
I think it more admirable to leave room for the evolution of an opinion as evidence accrues and arguments are made than to make blanket assertions that lead one at the end either to crow about having been correct or to simply admit having been wrong.
A DRaysBay and FanGraphs writer from Cubs Stats.
Seems odd to have your top 20 team rankings differ from your overall list
He only did that list a few weeks ago but I don’t see much changing overall to make that kind of shuffle
by Jason Collette on Feb 27, 2012 10:14 AM EST reply actions
I'm a big Sickels fan
You are banned from Over the Monster.
You are banned from Minor League Ball.
Absolutely and totally unnecessary to pick on Marisa. You're gone.
Me or him?
You are banned from Over the Monster.
You are banned from Minor League Ball.
Absolutely and totally unnecessary to pick on Marisa. You're gone.
I like Sickels
I mean obviously I have no clue how good he is at prospecting itself (that’d be hard to rate) but I really respect and admire how interactive he’s kept his site
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 27, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Hardly surprised only 5 made the top 120
This is a direct result of the horrible entry drafts the Rays have had in 2008, 2009 and 2010. Not one player from those entry drafts even made the list or even close to it. 2011 entry draft could make up for those poor draft years but we shall see. The RFO has done a good job acquiring other teams quality prospects via trades but that was at a cost to the MLB roster and you can only get so lucky doing that.
Some people never learn.....
I know, I know. I wish I had the patience of bobr to dexplain, in detail, the faults with such thinking, but I don’t. It gets really old repeated myself 100 times about why you shouldn’t judge a draft so early.
Wait are you saying that Josh Sale is the future?
I’m seeing quite a few well many busts in those entry drafts. Not shockingly a few members of the Rays baseball operations department who were responsible for selecting those players are no longer here.
Would you prefer they were targetting players that had a higher floor with a lower ceiling?
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 27, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
And to add onto this, the Rays drafting clearly has not been the issue.
Sale, O’Conner, Glaesmann, etc.. were all considered good to great picks at the time. I would either choose to blame SSS, the development team, or the players themselves. The Rays weren’t making strange choices; the players were taken in the right spots according to the consensus among scouts and MLB teams.
2008 had the somewhat questionable approach
of taking low K, low power hitters Jacob Jefferies and Michael Sheridan early. Not sexy then, not sexy now.
by Ben Tumbling on Feb 27, 2012 9:36 PM EST up reply actions
Huh?....Hosmer's numbers were much better than Sale's
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
FWIW, a pitcher I know in the Cards org told me he faced Hak Ju Lee 15-20 times last season...
And he praised him, essentially saying he was a bada$$. Said everything we already knew- Great D, smooth hands at SS, can run like wind. But he added that he was an extremely difficult out. Would foul off tough pitches and square up the ball well. The pitcher in question has good stuff at 91-94 with a ton of action.
Again, take it for what it’s worth, but thought it was interesting.
Sorry, no one cares unless Cason knows him.
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
by SRQman on Feb 27, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I just made it up anyway. I'm not relevant anymore.
by td32 on Feb 27, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
No show so just a regular Joe.
You are banned from Over the Monster.
You are banned from Minor League Ball.
Absolutely and totally unnecessary to pick on Marisa. You're gone.
I've been walking around South Tampa drinking out of a milk carton
by td32 on Feb 27, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Is your face on it?
Bc we miss you :)
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 27, 2012 5:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
This is the 2 degrees of separation FZ hinted at earlier
I know td32 who knows the guy….this is still valid
by Jason Collette on Feb 27, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
Last season or the previous season?
Boom. Outta Here.
Follow @RyanGilliss
by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 27, 2012 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
No, Eric Fornataro...
But I went back and looked at the season just now, and ZFornataro faced Lee only 5 times. He might have meant he faced him, AND SAW him 20 times. Regardless, nice to hear insight from someone that saw him several times.
The fouls part is something I've heard as well.
Seems to keep at-bats alive.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 27, 2012 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
Gast may be able to get it up to 94
But I would not say he has good movement. Although I may be just be holding a frustration grudge.
Wow.
I’m really shocked how jittery reading your mention of Gast made me feel. Big shot of adrenaline, heart beating too fast. I clearly have some unresolved issues to work through.
Had to go look at a video of Gilmartin warming up to calm myself down.
I was just looking for Jesuit
Boom. Outta Here.
Follow @RyanGilliss
by Ryan Gilliss on Feb 27, 2012 7:14 PM EST up reply actions
Im guessing Eric Fornataro or Kevin Siegrist
both Community College guys…and i suspect since td32 is half way through a gallon of milk and stumbling through some unsavory neighborhoods in south tampa he was a CC kinda guy.
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Feb 27, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
DAMN IT!
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Feb 27, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
i knew i shouldnt have wasted time with my stupid joke...or that asshole kevin siegrist
Ride the tiger...You can see his stripes but you know he's clean.
by James Westfall on Feb 27, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
How good is he? I literally never heard of him until this offseason
by Ben Tumbling on Feb 27, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
He looked pretty good when we played against him, bit of a hacker, but makes good contact in and out of the zone and appears to call a solid game behind the plate
Oh by the way, he doesn’t turn 22 until May. His BABIP was pretty high and I don’t think he’ll ever hit as well as he did last year over an entire season, but as a catcher it’s not like he needs to.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 28, 2012 8:41 AM EST up reply actions
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