DRaysBay's Community Top 50 Rays Prospect List

by mr. maniac on Feb 28, 2012 2:00 PM EST in Prospects

First of all, I would like to thank all of the members of the DRaysBay community who participated in creating the list. We did a top 30 list last year, and due to popular demand, the list expanded to 50 players this year. The polls combined accumulated over 850 votes, and the threads were a great source of discussion and debate. Creating this list was a fun activity, and undoubtedly helped strengthen the knowledge of prospects within the community.

The list is after the jump.

1. Matt Moore (LHP, AA-AAA-MLB, 22)

2. Hak-Ju Lee (SS, A+-AA, 21)

3. Alex Torres (LHP, AAA-MLB, 24)

4. Enny Romero (LHP, A, 21)

5. Tim Beckham (SS, AA-AAA, 22)

6. Mikie Mahtook (CF, College-AFL, 22)

7. Brandon Guyer (CF/OF, AAA-MLB, 26)

8. Chris Archer (RHP, AA-AAA, 23)

9. Drew Vettleson (OF, Rk, 20)

10. Taylor Guerrieri (RHP, HS, 19)

11. Alex Colome (RHP, A+-AA, 23)

12. Derek Dietrch (SS, A, 22)

13. Josh Sale (OF, Rk, 20)

14. Ryan Brett (2B, Rk, 20)

15. Parker Markel (RHP, A-, 21)

16. Jake Hager (SS, Rk, 18)

17. Tyler Goeddel (SS/3B, HS, 19)

18. Jeff Malm (1B, A-, 21)

19. Oscar Hernandez (C, VSL, 18)

20. Tyler Bortnick (2B, A+, 24)

21. Granden Goetzman (CF, Rk, 19)

22. Lenny Linsky (RHP, A- to A, 21)

23. Ryan Carpenter (LHP, A-, 21)

24. Matt Bush (RHP, AA-AAA, 26)

25. Robinson Chirinos (C, AAA-MLB, 27)

26. Johnny Eierman (SS, Rk, 19)

27. Brandon Martin (SS, Rk, 18)

28. Ty Morrison (CF, A+, 21)

29. CJ Riefenhauser (LHP, A-A+, 22)

30. Felipe Rivero (LHP, Rk, 20)

31. Kes Carter (CF, A-, 21)

32. Grayson Garvin (LHP, College, 22)

33. James Harris (CF, Rk, 18)

34. Lucas Bailey (C, A, 20)

35. Marquis Fleming (RHP, AA-AAA, 25)

36. Cole Figueroa (2B, AA, 24)

37. Justin O'Conner (C, Rk, 19)

38. Cody Rogers (CF, A, 23)

39. Jose Lobaton (C, AAA-MLB, 27)

40. Wilking Rodriguez (RHP, A- to A, 21)

41. Yoel Araujo (CF, DSL, 19)

42. Jeff Ames (RHP, Rk, 21)

43. Blake Snell (LHP, Rk, 19)

44. Cameron Seitzer (1B, Rk, 22)

45. Nick Barnese (RHP, AA, 23)

46. Braulio Lara (LHP, A, 23)

47. Jason McEachern (RHP, A- to A, 21)

48. Albert Suarez( RHP, Rk-A+, 22)

49. John Alexander (1B, Rk, 18)

50. Jesse Hahn (RHP, Injury, 22)

Honorable Mentions: Oscar Armenta, Kyeong Kang, Dane de la Rosa, Joseph Cruz, Scott Shuman, Taylor Motter, Andrew Bellatti, Matt Spann, Stephen Vogt, Kyle Lobstein, Jacob Thompson, and Jacob Faria.

I hope you enjoyed creating the list!

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Evaluation on the Rays' top prospects

TheRaysWay.com is evaluating the Rays’ top 20 prospects (based off MLB.com’s rankings), and part one is already out. Check it out: http://theraysway.com/slideshows/evaluation-on-the-rays-top-prospects-2012-part-1

Yossi Feins
Chief Editor of TheRaysWay.com
Founder of The Rays Rant (http://yossif.mlblogs.com/)
Follow @TheRaysRanter

by Yossi Feins on Feb 28, 2012 2:09 PM EST reply actions

" He has great mechanics at the plate,"

Who told you that about Mahtook?

by mr. maniac on Feb 28, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, so these won't be clogging up the funpost bar anymore?

Follow @RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Feb 28, 2012 2:34 PM EST reply actions

now we'll be doing DRB Top Community Members

We’ll have nearly that many funposts before we get through the masthead.

by rglass44 on Feb 28, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

Here at DRaysBay, everyone is an analyst!!

Follow @RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Feb 28, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

no wonder it's the home to "Progressive statistical analysis and reasoned argument."

by rglass44 on Feb 28, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

We're mimicking Bleacher Report

Hattie – you want to be a senior correspondent?

Follow @jasoncollette

by Jason Collette on Feb 28, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

It does have a nice ring to it.

Follow @RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Feb 28, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

Collette knows someone who can get you on the masthead

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 28, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

DRB's Ollie Williams

by Vin on Feb 28, 2012 7:07 PM EST up reply actions

Surely they can rank another 19 prospects.

by Passionate Apathy on Feb 28, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

Nevin Ashley is my ideal 69

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 28, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions

thank fucking god.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 28, 2012 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

Funny to see how many what i call back up QB types have leapfrogged

ahead of others

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 28, 2012 2:36 PM EST reply actions

Such as....

by mr. maniac on Feb 28, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

My definition of a prospect is how close he gets to MLB, so naturally

i’d rate the AAA guys higher than those just drafted

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 28, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting that we agree on this

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 28, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

Which explains why your favorite prospect (Dietrich) played in A ball last year...

I don’t disagree with your assertion though.

by mr. maniac on Feb 28, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

It's why i never got involved in listing the prospects

I just watch them year by year and hope they never hit a wall, although it almost always happens

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 28, 2012 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Same here, it's easier to deal with 3/10 at the plate than it is the farm system

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 28, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions

Talent is talent, but gimme the guy with the higher ceiling

You can find plenty of average guys on the market for cheap, but the Rays can’t buy a superstar.

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 28, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

This is where I am.

Superstars have to be brought up throught the system for us to have a chance being able to afford them even if only 5-6 years. While having an average player is nice and provides good value at minimum we can afford to fill some holes with that kind of talent.

by jtmorgan on Feb 28, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

So you'd agree with Kevin Towers here?

Nowadays you’re seeing more GMs in the draft room than there were 10 years ago. You’ve heard the old adage: ‘take the guy with the highest ceiling.’ But sometimes you never see that freaking ceiling. I’m a big believer in probability. If you give me a player with a 30% chance to be an All-Star, vs. an 80% to 90% shot to be a quality regular player, there’s no doubt which way I’m going.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 28, 2012 2:50 PM EST up reply actions

I agree a bit, but his last sentance struck me as a straw man.

Is there any player in the draft room with an 80%-90% chance of being a quality regular? If this player does exist, surely he also has a relatively high chance of being an all star. And the other way round, the guy with the 30% chance of being an all star also has the option of becoming a quality regular.

As a philosophy, fine, but these numbers make it sound like more of a choice than I think it really is.

by Whelk on Feb 28, 2012 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

Good points.

And yes, his numbers are skewed.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 28, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

RJ and I have also gone over his relative lack of success in the draft room which, IMO, undermines this philosophy.

by rglass44 on Feb 28, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions

Hey, his first rounder a few years back will make a great 3B for Durham

But God help us if he actually needs to play with the big club.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Feb 28, 2012 10:37 PM EST up reply actions

Which is a huge part of why my rankings look so different from a lot of folks' here

I think Project Prospect veers TOO far in the other direction, but this is certainly my ‘Marquis Fleming over Brandon Martin’ argument.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Feb 28, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

Simple/half-assed math analysis

(0.80 to 0.90)(2 Average annual WAR) = 0.16 to 0.18 Average annual WAR

(0.30)( 5 Average annual WAR) = 0.15 Average annual War

This roughly means the 30%-All-star player would only need to have a 15% chance of becoming a 2-WAR player to equate the difference amongst a 80% to 90% regular player.

I rather roll the dice on the star player.

by MakeitRayn on Feb 28, 2012 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

The dude in the middle does not look like how I thought Tim Beckham looked

Maybe it’s because it’s my first time seeing him not wearing a hat

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 28, 2012 2:43 PM EST reply actions

How benderbrodriguez thought Tim Beckham looked.

Follow @RealNolenBailey

by Hatfield on Feb 28, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs

el oh el

by rglass44 on Feb 28, 2012 2:48 PM EST up reply actions

To be fair, it looks like a 9 year old boy's head was photoshopped on his body

Look at the relative hand size

Follow Me on Twitter @FreeZorilla

by FreeZorilla on Feb 28, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

manchild

by rglass44 on Feb 28, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions

Is that you bro?

by Ben Tumbling on Feb 28, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

FWIW, I've never seen Timmy B without a smile on his face

I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord

by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 28, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

I doubt Goldstein knows that much more about Snell than we do

A guy who wasn’t projected to be a top 100 pick from the middle of nowhere who didn’t play any pro ball. I’m sure Goldstein knows a TON about that guy. He’s probably basing his opinion off a scout or two, and maybe watching him at the Perfect Game workouts.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Feb 28, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

Never mind

This is what I get for opening my mouth before looking things up. He did pitch a fair number of innings of complex ball, so he may have gotten more reports.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Feb 28, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions

Snell is a polarizing prospect.

It really depends on whether or not you think he is projectable.

by mr. maniac on Feb 28, 2012 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

Is he really?

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 28, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions

I admit I haven't watched enough video to get a firm opinion.

by mr. maniac on Feb 29, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

It just does seem so strange that some people think he is extremely projectable while others completely disagree.

by mr. maniac on Feb 29, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions

Is the reason being cited still the narrow, sloping shoulders?

by Ben Tumbling on Feb 29, 2012 4:48 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah.

I just watch some video. His delivery is a bit high-effort. There are quite a few tweaks the Rays could/should make to it.

by mr. maniac on Feb 29, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions

I was referring to the polarizing part of your statement

He doesn’t seem to be more polarizing than a normal prospect to me at least

by benderbrodriguez on Feb 29, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

BTW awesome job on doing this, maniac.

by Ben Tumbling on Feb 28, 2012 4:57 PM EST reply actions

Thanks to the DRaysBay Community Top 50, I now know that Yoel Araujo is a much better prospect than John Alexander!

Seriously, it was a nice endeavor but couldn’t it have stopped at 30? There were like 5 people voting for everyone after Chirinos

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 28, 2012 5:48 PM EST reply actions

Who gives?

Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Feb 28, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions

you're forgetting an article

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 28, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

false.

I’m just channeling my inner ’90s.

Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Feb 28, 2012 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

Slightly OT: rglass bait

It’s been a long, hard, humbling road for Beckham, who was selected first overall out of a Georgia high school in the 2008 draft. Four years into his pro career, he has yet to show star potential and has performed basically at an average level at each stop along his path to the Majors. Defensively it’s become clear that he’ll have to move off shortstop at the big league level (especially with Hak-Ju Lee in the same organization). He may end up at third base or right field. Beckham spent 2011 at double-A, posting a wRC+ of .102 (.100 being average) but he did maintain a decent batting average and showed that he isn’t afraid to talk a walk. He also swiped 15 bases in 19 tries and has average speed. He received a late-season promotion to triple-A and held his own in 24 games. After the season Beckham played another 22 games in the Arizona Fall League where he showed some unexpected power (.244 ISO rate) but was otherwise unspectacular. He should return to triple-A for 2012 where he’ll need to develop more power in his game if he’s going to be an everyday player at his projected position.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 28, 2012 6:21 PM EST reply actions

Is his defense really bad enough to force him off SS? Haven't heard that before, sounds wrong.

Also, wasn’t he showing power towards the end of the season at the expense of plate discipline? Seems like an odd quibble at the end.

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 28, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions

Does anyone in the FG set know how Mark garners his evidence?

Does he have a scouting background? Does he go to games? Is he like those of us here that mainly go off what other people say? The reason I wonder is that comment. It seems most of the evaluators that see Bex have now relented that he could stay at SS, but he MAY have to move off because Lee is a very good defender.

This report on Bex seems woefully lacking. I’m not really too worried about FG’s prospect analysis though.

by rglass44 on Feb 29, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions

Who wrote that?

Cherington has taken off his pants and he’s shitting all over my hopes for 2012
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 10, 2012 12:31 PM CST

by SandalsNoPants on Feb 28, 2012 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

Fangraphs top 15 prospects

by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 28, 2012 6:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

4 years, but only 3 seasons as a pro.

This would be Beckham’s first full year in pro ball if he’d gone to college. And he’s starting the season in AAA.

by td32 on Feb 28, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions

he's basically average!!

9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST

"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again" [referring to predominantly minority neighborhoods in St. Petersburg]

by pudieron89 on Feb 28, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions