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The Rays 2012 Bullpen Competition

After the conclusion of the 2010 season the Rays front office was faced with the unprecedented task of having to replace six pitchers who appeared in 55 games or more during the season as Rafael Soriano, Joaquin Benoit, Grant Balfour, Randy Choate, Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls signed elsewhere for contracts totaling roughly 68 million dollars. In meeting this challenge the Rays front office had to assemble a whole new cast of men for Joe Maddon to cobble into a bullpen for 2011. The amount of new faces and personalities in spring training caused Joe Maddon to quip that he felt more like a social coordinator than a major league manager.

As spring training progressed at least four spots were secure: Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Adam Russell, and Andy Sonnanstine. There was a healthy competition for the remaining three spots which were eventually won by Juan Cruz, Cesar Ramos, and Jake McGee.

The big question surrounding the Rays as they departed spring training was if Joe Maddon would name a closer or if he were prepared to go the closer by committee route. Neither Andrew Friedman nor Joe Maddon tiped their hand:

"It's much more about having enough high-leverage guys that can get big outs late in the game," executive vice president Andrew Friedman said, "whether that's the seventh inning or the eighth inning or the ninth inning." - Tampa Bay Times

"I'm not going to declare one," manager Joe Maddon said, "because I think if you are not absolutely certain, then you shouldn't do that because you're only setting yourself up for problems later on." - Tampa Bay Times

After the first 6 games and 8 innings of play, Joe Maddon and the Rays were still looking for an opportunity to a) take a lead in a game and b) get the final three outs for a victory. Thanks to two errors by the Chicago White Sox and a key 3-run home run by Dan Johnson the Rays streak of not having a lead in a game ended at 62 innings and Joe Maddon had an opportunity to go to his bullpen for the final three outs. He turned to Kyle Farnsworth who retired the side in order and recorded his first save since June 13, 2008.

Star-divide

True to his word, Maddon never named Farnsworth his closer (he did call him a reliever extraordinaire) but he turned to him to finish 51 games during the season. The next closest relief pitcher in games finished was Joel Peralta with 18. Farnsworth did his part to maintain Maddon's trust by delivering his best season of his career. He posted a 5-1 record with an ERA of 2.18/FIP of 3.16 and was credited with 25 saves. His BB/9 rate of 1.87 was a career low and his K/BB ratio of 4.25 was a career high.

With Farnsworth assuming the 9th inning role Joe Maddon was free to mix and match the high/medium leverage situations as he saw fit. The following is a breakdown of high/med leverage (based on Fangraphs) innings pitched :

Relief_highmedium_splits_medium

The 2010 bullpen was far and away a superior bullpen. Joe Maddon had to go to his bullpen far fewer times in 2011 then in 2010 and also utilized the bullpen 63 fewer innings in 2011 than 2010. The reasons for not having to rely on the bullpen as heavily in 2011 as in 2010 was because the starting rotation in 2011 delivered 15 complete games and 1058 innings while the 2010 rotation only delivered 6 complete games and 999.2 innings pitched.

Standard_2010-2011_bullpen_medium

The pitching staffs in 2010 and 2011 had approximately the same number of games when leading after 6,7, and 8 innings and had nearly the same success.

Protecting_leads_medium

Unless the Rays starting staff continues to go deep into games, the 2012 Rays will most likely have to rely more heavily on their bullpen. Fortunately for Joe Maddon, unlike last spring, he will not have to be spend his time in Port Charlotte filling the role as social coordinator. Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, J.P. Howell, Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos, and Jake McGee are all returning. He will have a few new faces to introduce as over the winter the Rays traded for Burke Badenhop and Josh Lueke and signed Fernando Rodney as a free agent. There will be more on each of these relievers as spring training progresses. For now, a quick look at who is in camp competing for the 7 spots.

Nine pitchers will battle for the 7 bullpen spots. As of today, the bullpen looks to have 5 spots secured. Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, J.P. Howell, and Fernando Rodney.

The remaining spots will be decided between Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos, Josh Lueke, and Burke Badenhop.

Other dark horse candidates are Matt Bush and Dan De La Rosa who are already on the Rays 40 man roster along with minor league invites Jhonny Nunez, Ricky Orta, Romulo Sanchez, and Matt Torra.

The biggest concern with the construction of the 2012 Rays bullpen are the two words that were most often associated with Kyle Farnsworth at the end of the 2011 season--Tender Elbow. The bullpen competition certainly takes on a different complexion if that elbow flares up and the Rays are faced without having their reliever extraordinaire at the back end of the bullpen. The Rays have proven that they can fill that role in the past but the question will shift to whether or not they have the depth to maintain the 80-82 game frequency of having a lead after 8 innings if they bump everyone up one notch.


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Regarding Jake McGee

I want to his spring training… Is this the year that he breaks out and becomes an elite RP… He has the raw ability to do it…

Also I think you have to give Gomes a spot he was fantastic at the end of the season

by GrayhawkAZ on Feb 4, 2012 10:09 AM EST reply actions  

Gomes should get a spot.

But if a pitcher doesn’t get traded and Davis goes to the bullpen Gomes is the oddman out since he has an option remaining.

by jtmorgan on Feb 4, 2012 10:12 AM EST up reply actions  

I suspect the DL would be used to fix that problem

If no trades happen and Davis goes to the pen I would bet that someone who is not performing/ not in shape in spring training is put on the DL and stays in extended spring training rather than sending Gomes down. Assuming he looks as good this spring as he did towards the end of last season his spot should be locked up. I would bet its Rodney staying for a little extra work in Port Charlotte until someone else is has some soreness and needs a few weeks off or a trade happens.

by Devil Ray on Feb 4, 2012 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

He would be the first to be called up though from Durham.

You will always use more than just the 7 that start with the team anyways. A DL could buy a little bit of time, but if Davis goes to the pen I wouldn’t expect a move except for injury for a month or two unless somebody completely falls on their face.

by jtmorgan on Feb 4, 2012 7:50 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree

Hopefully Howell is just used as the loogie. I have only negative expectations for him. Maddon’s reliance on him last season was frustrating. It would be great if he turns it around and become useful, but as I said before, I seriously doubt it.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Feb 4, 2012 10:37 AM EST up reply actions  

The fact they offered him arby and signed him shows they disagree with you

I think JP’s on a short leash however and we may know a lot more about him when we see what shape he’s in when he reports

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by sternfan1 on Feb 4, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Hopefully Howell returns to form and doesn't have to be a LOOGY

I know the numbers say he was effective when only used against lefties, but I don’t want to see that. If he’s throwing like last year, I don’t really trust him in any situation. OTOH, if he’s the old JP…

by nomoredevil on Feb 4, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm okay with Howell being a LOOGY

as long as he’s good at it. There’s value in that. I loved what Choate did for the team, but I doubt Howell will be able to get up as often as Choate did.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that's the hope

I doubt we tender him if the front office thought he’d be a pure loogy. Loogies can be had for cheaper than what we’re paying him.

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by Brickhaus on Feb 4, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions  

The Iceman is back this year.

With a full off-season of workouts and spring training under this belt, a healthy JP will regain his spot as the bullpen ace in 2012. He may even end up leading the team in saves this year. Lets hope so at least.

by Devil Ray on Feb 4, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

A better hope is that Howell could again become a dominant crossover reliever.

That could enable the Rays to go with a 6 man bullpen and add a 5th bat off the bench.

Sadly though, I don’t see Howell returning to that form.

by budman3 on Feb 4, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Howell

I can’t believe we used him for the 3rd most high leverage innings last year. That’s terrible.

by joaker5 on Feb 5, 2012 6:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Does McGee have any options left?

I am just curious what the Rays’ choices are if certain guys look like garbage throughout ST.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Feb 4, 2012 10:41 AM EST reply actions  

Pretty sure he has one left

But you can look it up at Cot’s baseball contracts

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Feb 4, 2012 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Davis Aardsma and Mike Wuertz are still out there on the FA list

Wouldn’t mind one of them on a minor deal

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by sternfan1 on Feb 4, 2012 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

Kuo is an interesting possibility too.

Others have mentioned him before. There has to some other reclamation projects beyond Rodney.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Feb 4, 2012 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess reclamation might be a bit dramatic

I have faith in their judgement; obviously they have more than earned that. He does have a certain stigma attached to him though, you gotta admit.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Feb 4, 2012 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

really?

What else would you call it? The guys hasn’t been a good pitcher in years, He wasn’t even a good pitcher the last time he was getting saves as a closer.

by joaker5 on Feb 5, 2012 6:43 AM EST up reply actions  

An interesting thought, Dane De La Rosa is 29 yo

and has had but a cup of coffee at the MLB level yet the Rays protected him over Russ Canzler. Is there anything we should read into that? It appears as though De La Rosa is a long shot to see much action in Tampa Bay this year so why hang on?

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by sternfan1 on Feb 4, 2012 10:50 AM EST reply actions  

I think that at some point in the year, the Rays will go to a 6 man rotation for awhile.

DDLR is one one many options available in Durham to obtain a bunch of frequent flyer miles.

by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Feb 4, 2012 10:58 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think DDLR is going to be part of any 6 man rotation

If that occurs, then bad things happened to a number of guys ahead of him. I think sternfan is just trying to point out that Canzler was not regarded the same by the FO as he was by some people here; I could be wrong.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Feb 4, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

You're sort of spot on. If Canzler was as good as some

here suggested, many putting him among Rays top prospect list, why did the Rays protect such stalwarts as Stephen Vogt and De La Rosa instead of him?

follow me on twitter @sternfan10

by sternfan1 on Feb 4, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Some of this stuff becomes subjective since most of us are not directly involved

I was impressed by his offensive numbers, but the few games I saw him play at a position did not leave me with a good impression. MiLB.TV watching. I was not a fan of Dan Johnson’s defense either. Having Carlos back is very nice. Canzler still has a chance to make an impact though, so be careful; those people you are trying to rub it in with now will easily come back and do the same. Although you likely know this already.

"My ambition is handicapped by laziness"

by Tonage on Feb 4, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions  

DDLR, Lueke, Bush Flemming doing the Durham shuffle while Cobb is added to the 6 man is what I think will happen.

With Gomes and Hopper being optioned and not even taking the flight to Durham. They would simply stay in St. Pete while resting from the past nights performance. The call ups while on a 6 man rarely last more than a day or two or they would have been with the team to begin with.

by Moore Guerreri and Cheese on Feb 4, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

6 man rotation

This doesn’t seem to mean much in terms of bullpen. The Rays aren’t going to leave their starts in longer just because there is a 6 man rotation. They will still take them out at the same point, the point when performance puts the game at risk. With the way Maddon manages a bullpen they will need the bodies down there.

by joaker5 on Feb 5, 2012 6:45 AM EST up reply actions  

I hope Farnsworth has a short leash as closer.

I don’t think he comes near repeating his 2011. Maybe McGee can step up, or perhaps Torres can come in and be like Carlos Marmol (with a better walk rate, I hope, but maybe not). I would include Archer, but with all his plus pitches, I think he has a much better shot at being an effective starter Torres.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 11:39 AM EST reply actions  

Wait

I would be somewhat okay with that, but I’d rather see a young guy step up, or rather be allowed to step up.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I also thinking counting on Farnsworth as the closer is a mistake.

He’s unlikely to repeat 2011 even if he’s healthy all year, and his frequent absences at the end of the season to nurse a sore elbow suggest that it could be difficult for him to remain healthy all year. I’ve been hearing about McGee’s potential as a late innings reliever for a while now. Let’s hope this is the year he lives up to it.

by lizzieray on Feb 4, 2012 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Awful
SATURDAY: The Rays received $100K from the Indians to complete the trade, reports MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (on Twitter).

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

I hate everything there is to do with the Keppinger signing.

That Suarez guy has no business on the 40 man, anyway.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions  

How much do you even know about "that Suarez guy"?

Because if you throw his profile on a non-first-round pick, I bet everyone would take turns dreaming on his arm:

- 22 years old
- Well-built righty
- Fastball gets into the mid-90s, w/ sink
- Potential for plus-breaking stuff
- Missed time with Tommy John surgery as well as knee surgery.

Suarez had knee surgery in February, just as he was getting beyond the 18-month mark since TJS. Question his durability, sure, but his recent numbers aren’t going to tell you much.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Less than 140 IP total

Quick math, not adding it up exactly, but why is he on there in the first place?

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Because the org thinks highly of him and wanted to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

BA had him as a top-10 prospect in the system pre-Tommy John. Wouldn’t surprise me if he moves up lists with a healthy season.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2012 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

How soon does a player need to be added to the 40man due to rule 5?

He hasn’t been around long and has been in the lowest levels of the minors. Was he a threat to stick to a 25 man roster for an entire season?

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions  

He was added winter 2010.

It’s four years after signing as a 19-year-old (or older) and five years if signing before. He made his organized ball debut in 2008, as but was signed in 2006. They added him when they had to.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Gotcha.

To my other question, though, is he really a threat to be taken?

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

If other teams value him like the Rays do? Yes.

They have a better idea of the player’s value than I do. If you’re Houston and you see the same potential, what’s stopping you from pulling a Johan Santana on him? Give him a few starts, but mostly keep him in the pen. Maybe an injury will pop up and you can use the loopholes to your advantage and get a nice pitching prospect for essentially nothing.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

It seemed unlikely that Josh Hamilton would stick, too.

I can’t blame the Rays for keeping Suarez over someone like Canzler. The latter is a fringe MLB player, the former could be useful in a future trade, or on a future team should he develop.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 4, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Badenhop

I think he is close to a lock to make the opening day roster. The Rays are paying him $1.075 million. He is the only extreme ground ball RH pitcher (55.9% career) on the team and can go multiple innings. It seems to me he was acquired to fill an important role in the bullpen that no other pitcher currently with the team can fill.

That would leave Gomes, Lueke and Ramos to fill the last slot, and that decision probably hinges on whether Davis or Niemann is traded. If one is, I think Gomes sticks.

by bobr on Feb 4, 2012 5:03 PM EST reply actions  

I didn't think there was any doubt he would make the OD roster.

I also thought Lueke was a lock until they signed Rodney. Lots of good options in the bullpen this season. I excited about that.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 4, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions  

the only hiccup with Badenhop

is that he doesn’t have the track record to pitch extremely poor with a lower velo in spring training and still have a roster spot.

He doesn’t have to do a whole heck of a lot but he can’t do very little.

Rodney, could pitch very poorly and have a lower velo and he will be given the benefit of the “he’s taking his normal route to preparing for the season”.

In my opinion that’s where Badenhop stands…..his name in erasable ink.

by MrNegative1 on Feb 4, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions  

gomes, leuke and badenhop

Expecting to see those 3 in the bullpen by the end of april while Rodney is on the dl with an aching performance.

by joaker5 on Feb 5, 2012 6:48 AM EST up reply actions  

Farnsworth's elbow scares me.

Good thing we have plenty of depth, and I’m sure somebody can step up and fit into the closer role for a while, if needed. Only problem is that we haven’t traded a SP yet, but I’m sure that will get worked out in ST if it stays this way. I think Gomes stays and Hop/Rodney miss the team if no trades are made.

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 4, 2012 11:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Also, you have to wonder if Friedman would take the Hop trade or Rodney singing back

back if he knew we would be in this position right now.

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 4, 2012 11:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Nothing at all

Just, if we stay in this position, we might have to give Davis/Niemann a bullpen spot and deal with Badenhop/ Rodney. I like Badehop and think he will make the team, but sending Rodney down will make the signing look like a mistake. I guess Friedman was expecting to trade someone, but that just hasn’t worked out.

joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:

"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong

Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."

Classic.

by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 5, 2012 10:29 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm kind of like the Rodney signing

but I think it’s fair to say that it might have been a mistake. I think just about any team would much rather have Hopper than Rodney, anyway.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 5, 2012 10:39 AM EST up reply actions  

This.

It’s only to start the season anyways. There will be attrition throughout the season that will cause at least 10 people to pitch from the bullpen at some point in the season. Even if Gomes starts in Durham which seems very likely if Davis/Niemann aren’t traded, a spot will open up for him at some point for him.

by jtmorgan on Feb 5, 2012 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Bush could really have an impact on the team.

I tell ya, if you haven’t seen him live or in his one inning at Durham on MilbTV, you are in for a surprise. When you see hitter’s reactions on his fastball, you know it is special.

by mr. maniac on Feb 5, 2012 12:31 AM EST reply actions  

I remember Dave and Andy being awfully excited and just "wowed" when they called his first appearance.

You will understand it when you see him pitch. I don’t mean to super hype him, but I think he is a step above all the other relief prospects.

by mr. maniac on Feb 5, 2012 12:33 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree 100%

2013 could be a very dominant yet cheap bullpen with Davis and Bush at the backend and Gomes, Mcgee, Archer, and Torres in there as well

by Dbullsfan on Feb 5, 2012 9:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Archer in the bullpen so soon?

Doesn’t he have 3 plus pitches or something like that? He seems like a guy they’d make room for if he gets better control.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 5, 2012 9:21 AM EST up reply actions  

well pending a mass exodus

I’d expect Hellickson, Moore, Shields or Price, Cobb, and one of Davis, Torres, Niemann, or Archer in the rotation. I guess we could leave Archer in AAA, where I’d expect him all year or we could use him out of the pen.

by Dbullsfan on Feb 5, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think Archer will be starting in AAA all of 2012

Then possibly in the Rays’s rotation in 2013, replacing Niemann/Davis.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 5, 2012 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

yea he will definately be in AAA this year

he is on the Price, Helly track right now which would be a late season call-up this year and than early 2013 be a part of the rotation. I don’t know if there will be room for him though.

by Dbullsfan on Feb 5, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

I think Cobb/Niemann/Davis are the only guys in his way

Niemann and Davis will likely be gone. There’s still too many pitchers, though. I’m sure something will be figured out. Maybe he won’t have the control and Cobb will be #5 in 2013 and Archer will still be in AAA.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 5, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions  

This is beginning to get me to rethink trading Shields this offseason.

With the prices that ok pitchers brought this offseason, I think selling high of Shields should have been done. Getting the best package that would help in a year or two would have been fine. With the arb figure for Price being much lower than anybody expected I can see us being able to afford him for at least 2 more years after this. So after this season I would have expect one of Shields/Price to be gone and as of now their projected prices would be similar and Price is the better bet going forward. The Moore extention also would have made this easier.

While I will enjoy rooting for our rotation with Shields, Price, Helly, and Moore I think getting the best value for Shields might have been the right play. A rotation of Price, Helly, Moore, Niemann, Davis with Cobb/Torres/Archer backup would have been pretty good and we’d have around $8MM in money to play around with also.

by jtmorgan on Feb 5, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Eh, I really like having Shields in the rotation

He’s never hurt, he’s a horse, and he’s good. The package he would’ve brought back probably wouldn’t been awesome, but I’d like to keep him on this team as long as he’s making 30+ starts and eating 200+ innings.

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by SandalsNoPants on Feb 5, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Ya I enjoy having Shields in the rotation.

Without knowing what was offered there really is no way to know, but the packages for solid starters are pretty unreal. I’m hoping Shields pitches like last season and we’re able to get something good for him after this season. Really this hinged on Price’s arb total since I really thought they might not be able to keep the core together for more than 1-2 seasons.

I was resigned to the fact that 1 will definitely be gone next season, but who knows we might be able to afford them longer.

by jtmorgan on Feb 5, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I believe this is the last year Bush can be optioned to the minors so you figure he has a real shot at making the 2013 25 man roster

Control looks to be a issue with Matt but if can improve his BB ratio he could be used for set-up or even the closer role very soon.

by rickrays on Feb 5, 2012 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

His .400 BABIP was the real issue.

His 11% BB rate is a little worse than what is considered average.

by mr. maniac on Feb 5, 2012 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm not as concerned with BABIP with the Rays defense but it certainly is a issue that can't be ignored

One would think with a MLB defense behind him some of those 48 hits would turn into outs. Either his BABIP or BB rate will need improvement in 2012. This was his first year he pitched 50 innings so I guess we need to reserve our judgement until we see a few more months from Bush in the minors. His 13.8 K rate per 9 is quite impressive especially since this was his first year at AA. 0.9 HR rate per 9 IP isn’t too bad but again too sss to really judge especially at AA.

by rickrays on Feb 5, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

BABIP rates fluctuate, so you can't blame him on that.

Hard to imagine a guy who gets groundballs and strikes out tons of batters could have a .400 BABIP. And, like you said, the BB% could use some improvement. It doesn’t appear to be a major handicap though if the rate stays the same.

by mr. maniac on Feb 5, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Watching him in person in ST last season...

He has a plus fastball and a plus breaking ball. If he can improve his command, he’ll be a very nice addition in the bullpen.

by td32 on Feb 5, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions  

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