The Rays Tank: PECOTA Is Released, Billy Beane Extended, And Cespedes Welcomed To Florida
by Steve Slowinski on Feb 8, 2012 8:32 AM EST
in The Rays Tank
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PrintThere's no giant story today, so let's jump straight into the links:
- Baseball Prospectus has released their 2012 PECOTA forecasts, and they've tweaked their formula slightly to give more weight to a player's history/performance and less to regression. It isn't a major change, but it sounds like it will have the greatest effect on forecasts for players coming off an outlier season (think Jose Bautista or Adam Dunn). PECOTA expects these players to regress back toward their career performance more than other forecasting models. For the full explanation -- Colin explains it all much better than me -- check out the link.
- In your mind, what were the 10 best transactions from this offseason? Dave Cameron listed his out yesterday, and he had the Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes signings as the top two moves. If he had included extensions, I've got to imagine Matt Moore's deal would have been near the top of the list, if not the top.
- The Athletics signed Billy Beane to an extension yesterday, locking him up through 2019. I saw a few people express this sentiment on Twitter, but I feel like this move suggests that the A's are going to get a new stadium in San Jose. Beane had been threatening to move the team due to the lack of movement on a stadium deal, so this seems like a good sign for A's fans.
- Clayton Kershaw signed a contract extension with the Dodgers, but it didn't buy out an free agency years. The Dodgers got a small discount and some price certainty, but they're going to have to pony up in a few years to keep Kershaw beyond that.
- Over at Rays Prospects, BurGi points out some interesting Rays-related notes from John Sickels' last chat. Sickels seems bullish on Mikie Mahtook and Jake Hager, and judging from everything I've read on those two, I can't blame him.
- Yoenis Cespedes landed in Miami yesterday, and he's set to meet with the Marlins today. They're supposedly going to pull out all the stop to impress him, but judging from the rumors, Miami isn't necessarily one of the places Cespedes would like to play.
- Former Devil Ray Danny Clyburn died recently after being shot during an argument. Clyburn was never more than a bit player with the Devil Rays, appearing in a handful of games back in 1999, but he still marks the fourth former D-Ray to pass away. Thoughts and prayers to his family.
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I'll be doing a bigger article on how PECOTA has the Rays before tomorrow
It is projecting 182 home runs for the team based on a projected 25 man roster
REAL ULTIMATE POWER!!!!!!
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Feb 8, 2012 7:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think most folks realize just how good Moore is going to be this year
I think Jon Lester’s first real season (2008) is a pretty solid comp as I see a lot of Lester in Moore. He probably won’t throw as many innings, but I think he’ll strike out more. Lester had a 3.21/3.64 ERA/FIP that season and I can very well see Moore doing the same thing.
Hell might as well go for the gold and compare him to Kershaw as well. I think Moore’s strikeouts will be closer to Big Clay’s something around 25% while his walks will be around 10%. That leaves 65% of his batters putting the ball in play and I don’t see many of them getting good wood on the ball. Let’s say a .275 BABIP between his skill and this defense. So if he faces 750 batters then you’re talking 188 strikeouts, 75 walks, with 485 balls in play. Let’s say 16 of those get over the wall that leaves 470 balls in play. So you’d expect about 125 hits or a .185 BA against. If you assume that’s around 190 innings then you’re looking at a 3.50 FIP. That’s close enough to what Shields did last year and Price did in 2010 for this kind of spitballing.
Both of those season’s featured ERA outperforming FIP. All this in mind I could see Moore doing the same and having something like a 3.15 ERA, 3.50 FIP.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
If he is Kershaw, under this contract, Friedman belongs in the HOF for getting him to sign it
by Jason Collette on Feb 8, 2012 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
My only concern is injury, each of his three pitches would grade out near best in class, he's had gradual step ups in innings so he should be good for 180+
His delivery is very efficient. On top of all this, he fills up the zone with strikes. You cannot get behind because then he’ll go to his wipeout curveball if you’re a lefty or his change if you’re a righty, both out of the zone. He can throw his loopy curve into the zone at will and he keeps his fastball down. I can say this with a bit of bias, but he’s the most complete, ready to dominate prospect I’ve ever seen. Think about how Kazmir made you feel coming up, then add in command, control, and a third pitch that is just as good as the first two.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
I've seen both up close and I like Moore better, though I'm partial to lefties and guys that have solid mechanics
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 8, 2012 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
From KLAW previous to his injury:
What sets Strasburg apart from most pitchers who can throw 100 mph, even those who do it in relief, is how easily he does it, with tremendous arm speed and a delivery that he repeats well, featuring a long stride to the plate that has helped him pick up velocity since high school. He’s a solid athlete with good body control and has very little to learn from dominating minor league hitters, so any internship he has in Washington’s farm system should be brief. The pitching-starved Nationals certainly could use him.
Praises delivery. The only people that talk about “his mechanics” are people taht buy in to the “Inverted W” garbage. Now, everyone wants to talk about his mechanics since he had TJS.
From BA that offseason:
Strengths: Strasburg is a once-in-a-generation talent. His plus-plus fastball sits in the mid- to upper 90s and the Nationals have seen him hit 102 mph. His breaking ball rates as a second plus-plus offering, a power 81-84 mph curveball that he can throw for strikes or use as a chase pitch. Even when he doesn’t stay on top of it, it’s a tough pitch, becoming more of a hard slider. He also flashes a plus changeup, though he seldom needed the pitch to dominate in college. Strasburg has excellent control with all of his pitches, and he also has very advanced command within the strike zone. He’s athletic, physical and durable, and he earns raves for his makeup both on and off the field.
Weaknesses: The only thing Strasburg doesn’t have is pro experience. The general consensus is that there are no red flags in his delivery, as his arm action is fairly loose and he uses his legs well. But it should be noted that there are some within the organization who are concerned that he eventually could break down because he locks out his elbow on his follow through, putting torque on his shoulder. Still, even those with reservations say they wouldn’t tinker with his mechanics.
Some slight reservations about breaking down eventually, but the consensus was that his mechanics need not be changed.
Which just goes to how how little people know about this area
And the person who might actually know the most is being shut out from the sport completely, because his approach would require completely retraining guys. I’d love to see how well someone with Dr. Mike Marshall’s delivery does with it if they throw that way from little league. Unfortunately, he has to deal with a pool of guys who are minor league rejects to begin with.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Feb 8, 2012 7:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"guys from DR" thought you were better than this, MR nomoredevil
9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Why are the IP projections so low?
Am I reading PECOTA wrong? 214 for Price sounds about right. But 201 IP for Shields, 156 IP for Hellboy, 144 for Davis, 138 for Moore, and 125 for Niemann?
Probably assumes all 6 are getting starts
Which might involve moore starting in AAA hence his low innings. Also likely predicts a minor injury for Niemann or Davis, and/or one of them switching to the pen.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 8, 2012 1:42 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
These systems tend to diffuse injury risk across multiple starters
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Feb 8, 2012 7:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah. was a little surprised by that. i think he puts more weight than most on a lot of high upside lower in the system (see his yanks ranking).
i like that approach. some wont turn out, and pegging which ones will is an exercise in futility, but you cant just dismiss a ton of value in the lower minors.
Gotta love being a Rays fan!!!
WOULD HAVE WOULD HAVE
If you lived closer I would have kicked the snot out of you by now
Matt Moore. That is all.
by joeybw
He wrote that six-to-eight prospects could have 60-plus grades in the majors.
That’s strong praise.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm hard
9 recs.
Steve, the front page is calling……
by mr. maniac on Jan 24, 2012 12:46 PM EST
"Please break your typewriter and computer and never come out of your ass cave again"
Oscar Hernandez and Josh Sale?
Sale is a year removed from being considered a top prospect and Hernandez’s value could sky rocket with more pro data
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 8, 2012 4:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Neither seems likely.
Law either tweeted or had a chat response in that he passed along a scout’s observation that Sale looked like a mess. Hernandez had nice stats, but can’t picture anyone saying he’s a top-10 prospect in this system on that alone.
Seems more likely to be Moore, Lee, Beckham, Archer, Mahtook, Guerrieri, and probably Torres/Vettleson. Can’t remember how high Law is on Guyer, but he wouldn’t be the first to say he thinks he’ll become an everyday player.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't guess Dietrich--probably not Hager either at this point--but sure, Brett and Colome might be in the discussion.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
Drew "Grady Sizemore Jr." Vettleson has to be in the discussion somewhere
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Ethier with much better defense seems like a better comparison
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 8, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
This
Sizemore was a + defensive CF. Vettleson will never be that. I also doubt Vettleson could hit for as much power, but I don’t know that for sure
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 8, 2012 11:06 PM EST up reply actions
Okay
I was looking at the batting stats, and it looks more like Sizemore, but if he can’t play CF, then maybe there’s a better comp than Ethier.
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 9, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions
dietrich's got maybe the best power in the system as a MIF. that's still some pretty good potential.
How is his fielding?
What position will he eventually play?
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 8, 2012 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe im wrong
But from what ive read, most experts seem to think that within the next year we should have a better read on what type of potential hernandez has. Ive heard he could be one of the top catching prospects in baseball or just the product of a weak competition and a small park. This next season should be very telling.
I thought Law was talking about future potential, not realized. Thats why I included Sale. I think you could argue his stock fell faster than Beckhams after being drafted, without even a full season of abs.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 8, 2012 5:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I just have a hard time seeing Law throwing a 60+ MLB grade on a teenager after a big season in the VSL.
Once he comes stateside we’ll know more.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Im talking more about a year from now at the earliest. Based on limited information, I still think those two have the greatest potential to move up the list the most in the next year.
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 8, 2012 6:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Top 8 upside doesn't necessarily mean top 8 ranking
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Feb 8, 2012 7:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1 on mikie
Really think he’s the biggest sleeper in our draft
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 8, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
What people need to realize is that having Moore or Harper means a whole heck of a lot.
I have no problem projecting each of those guys to have more value that half of the systems.
Russell the Muscle sign with NYY
Well there goes our International League championship
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 8, 2012 1:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Anyone else see Sloth on baseball IQ last night?
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 8, 2012 2:36 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Wish I did, Dish hard drive blew out on vacation, but tonight!
joeybw, on why he was banned for half a day:
"Might of been grammar I keep getting that "would have" thing wrong
Not on purpose, mods, wish it was….."
Classic.
by sc_monsta1015 on Feb 8, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I was reading Bullpen Banter's top prospect list, and I could help quite think this: What makes Mason Williams much better of a prospect than Dietrich?
Think about it. SS has the highest fielding value, but if Dietrich moves to 2B or 3B, it is still equivilant to CF. Both batted similarily the past year, with Dietrich being one year older and one level higher. If Mason WIlliams went to the Midwest League next year and had a .848 OPS, don’t you think people would rave about him?
Both players have had positive reports on their offense. THe only main difference is speed. Williams has excellent speed while Dietrich appears to be average or a tick better.
Still, if Williams is only a superb baserunner (+5) and Dietrich is average (0), then Williams is .5 more WAR.
So why is William’s so much higher ranked? I realize that I was too low on Dietrich before, and I’ve come to believe he is a top 10 prospect for the Rays. I just don’t get how one guy is a top 40 player while the other is non-top 200.
I wouldn't advise you to analyze prospects just off numbers
And I’d also hesitate to say the only difference with their offense is speed. Dietrich was a college draftee and he just fanned in almost a quarter of his plate appearances in A-ball. That’s concerning, since you wouldn’t expect that number to decline as he climbs the ladder.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Dietrich walks a slight bit more.
And walks seem to correlate the most to major league success. I’m definitely concerned about Dietrich’s Ks, but I guess they come with guys with a .226 ISOP.
Sure.
But again, beyond the numbers, Williams is more athletic, and that mean something. Even if you go by the numbers, Williams outhit Dietrich in the NYPL despite being younger at the time. You have to remember, contact is a good thing. Once you get to the majors, you can maybe strike out 25 percent of the time and it isn’t as big of a deal (assuming you do have the power or the great speed), but in the low minors, that kind of strikeout rate, even if it comes with power, is concerning.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
Williams is faster, not more athletic.
Speed isn’t everything. Dietich obviously has more power.
And I don’t care about what Dietrich did in 2010. If you think that Williams will follow the same path as Dietrich, you are being unrealistic.
I didn't say speed is everything and I have no idea where you got the idea that I said Williams will follow Dietrich's path.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 7:38 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't think they're identical as prospects, hence why Williams is highly regarded, and Dietrich isn't.
I’m not slamming or putting down Dietrich in suggesting that, either.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2012 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
You said Williams is more athletic. Not sure why unless you glanced at SB numbers.
Why would you compare a 2010 season to a 2011 season then? Dietrich “broke out” in a way. So by comparing Dietrich’s 2010 in the NYPL to William’s, you are seemingly assuming William’s will follow Dietrich’s path.
Ks are a sign of being overmatched in the minors
Prospectanalysis has shown that hitters who strike out a lot in the minors become bad hitters
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 8, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
How do you think Brett Jackson will be next season, guessing he makes it to the majors?
FREE GUYER!
by SandalsNoPants on Feb 8, 2012 9:17 PM EST up reply actions
Is it all but guaranteed that Dietrich will switch positions or is there still some hope he could stick?
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 8, 2012 6:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Realistically
Hes not a major league SS unless his bat is that much more valuable, but he could easily back up at the position. His defensive reputation isn’t any worse than Rodriguez’s was at short in the minors.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Feb 8, 2012 7:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
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