Six Rays In Keith Law's Top 100 Prospect List
The full list is Insider Only, but it's well worth the price of admission. But as you'd imagine, Moore, Lee, and Archer are three of the Rays' six top prospies. Any guesses on the other three?
4 months ago
Steve Slowinski
161 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
I little cliff notes version.
Moore: Finally a guy with the right scouting report, as he said the changeup is better than the curve/slider.
Lee: He ranked 12th. Says he will be a future All Star. Once again, Law is smart seeing that Lee doesn’t have to hit too much to be superb. (And I like the Myers ranking right after him.)
Archer: Needs to work on setting up his slider.
Romero: Raves about his upside, calling both this curve and changeup above average.
Mahtook: He calls him a steal in the draft.
Guerrieri: Delivery and command need some work.
My fave part about the Romero write-up:
His main issues, of course, are command and control, walking more than a guy every other inning last year and still generally working on the art of pitching. But if you want a low-minors lefty with the potential to go all Matt Moore in 2012, this is him.
Re: Mahtook
Raves about his makeup saying he’ll “get the most of his tools” while claiming he’s strong in all 5. Also, which kind of surprised me, he thinks Mahtook should be good to stay in CF.
I loved his pre draft comments on Mahtook.
Saying that he plays like his hair is on fire.
by Peter Piontek on Feb 9, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions
According to Mahtook he's getting a shot in CF
Don’t know if he’ll end up sticking there, but he told me during AFL that Rays are going to give him a shot there.
"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon
Must feel really good about Upton staying then
because I would think Mahtook will move quickly
by Dome Biscuit on Feb 9, 2012 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
Also just did piece today on this.
http://rays.scout.com/2/1157121.html
A look at where some of the guys from 2011 draft are going to play. Johnny Eierman is interesting, because according to most he was a shoo-in for CF in pros, but Rays have no interest in moving him there yet apparently.
"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon
Good question.
And Goeddel has been taking grounders there too. Yeah the system is really crowded at the lower levels with SS. I guess now that they all will be going to their first ST, that it will all get sorted out then.
"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon
I wish someone prominent would mention that Moore has two breaking balls, the loopy one for strikes and the hard driver that looks like a slider
Really interesting if he can do anything like Greinke is doing:
http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-analytics-blog/2012/2/2/greinkes-many-curveballs.html
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
imagine if we go all in this year and we see torres, davis, and archer all in the pen from july through the playoffs.
your talking a rotation of shields, price, moore, helly, and niemann with cobb as a reserve and an insane bullpen with redic arms from both sides (mcgee, howell, torres from the left and farns, peralta, davis, archer, etc from the right). talk about going “all in.”
We could probably use all starting pitchers and still have an above average BP
Davis, Cobb, Torres, Archer, McGee, Howell, Flemming
I realize McGee and Howell are no longer SP, but still
by BossmanJunior333 on Feb 9, 2012 3:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Please provide your case for why he isn't a top-125 prospect. Go.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Watched him a few times while he was at Charlotte
He did not stand out at all. Weak contact, mediocre approach, decent bat speed. Defense was not too bad. Seemed rangy. Wasn’t as fast as I though. I watched Hak Ju last year a few times and his defense was really good. Solid contact nearly every at bat, good approach, very quick around bases. He seperated himself from the boys by a wide margin for me. Maybe Beckham has improved
by Dome Biscuit on Feb 9, 2012 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
HJL is KLaw's 12th best prospect in the world. I see Beckham as a solid utility player at a minimum, luckily, at 21, he's still got some growing to do
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2012 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
Problem with Beckham is he was first overall
If he was round 8 or whatever, we would be all over the guy. I just want to see something sexy out of him. Good thing is he is a hard worker so he should be an average player at worst
by Dome Biscuit on Feb 9, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
So Pat Burrell was a bust? 18.7 WAR over 12 years
Plenty of guys are useful Major Leaguers without being superstars out of that draft spot, doesn’t make them busts or whatever else you’re saying:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=1&draft_type=&
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
If all he becomes is a utility infielder then yes Tim Beckham is most certainly a bust
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
That's his floor, his ceiling is a better fielding Jhonny Peralta whom even with the bad glove has been worth almost 18 WAR in his career
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
I still think he has the ceiling of a Miguel Tejada
I feel like there is still some growth physically he can do, which would lead to some more power. When Tejada was 21 he had a sub 800 OPS in low A, in his year 22 season he had a .810 OPS in high A. Beckham will be starting his age 22 season in AAA
*disclaimer I don't think he will reach that but I think he "could"
more likely I think he becomes a serviceable Ben Zobrist 2.0 just not as good, somewhere between SRod and Zobrist.
With performance enhancers now being tested for you probably won't see too many more Miguel Tejada type guys
Big guys that hit like that at SS are going to go the way of the dodo. It makes Tulo that much more ridiculous, he’s basically Evan but allowed to play SS and he does it well.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Yeah but
WILL BECKHAM BE A GOOD TIPPER?
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 9, 2012 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I was never a big contributer to the ottotd threads but maybe I missed out on that one
with my apparent controversial comments.
I'm not saying that all he will become is a utility infielder
I’m saying if all he does is become a utility infielder then he is a bust in my eyes
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
I dislike the binary analysis of draft picks
If you only look at picks, particularly the top overall choice, as star or bust, then you’ll end up with more black than white. There is gray involved, too, and if Beckham turns into an above-average major-league regular then I think you walk away pleased with the choice. Sure, you can argue that the top-overall choice should be the best player of the top-five or whatever, but it doesn’t always work out that way, and getting a good player at any choice is nothing worth regretting.
As for Beckham, if it doesn’t happen, it doesn’t happen, but I feel good about his chances. Everyone praises his work ethic, and when you combine hard work with good tools and sprinkle in a little luck, you tend to see good things happen. That he continues to hold his own in the high minors at the plate at his age while also juggling shortstop is a testament to his character. It’s not easy to do one of those things, and he’s doing both.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yessssssss
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
I am in no way saying that he couldn't be a very useful player as a utility infielder
but you can’t help but be disappointing if the ceiling achieved by the top overall pick is a utility infielder.
That’s all I am saying.
If Beckham becomes an above average major leaguer I would be extremely pleased.
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Ben Zobrist starts almost every game
I don’t think many would label that a utility infielder
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
ok. just making sure. if bex becomes a util that plays 60 games a year i would be disippoint.
id be pretty surprised if that’s all he is.
For the record I have not made any predictions about Beckham
I am not saying he will only become a utility guy
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
If he's just a bench guy I would be disappointed, too.
It’s a possibility, obviously, but I think he’ll be a regular when it’s all said and done.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
I think he ends up as a regular as well.
This is a big year for him.(Things I have said about Tim Beckham the last 3 years.)
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
He responded well last year.
League-average doesn’t look like much, but again, consider age and position, and that’s a good thing. I will say his new stance is probably going to be criticized whenever he gets into a slump.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2012 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
It doesn't matter if he is labeled a bust
it does matter that he would never be a significant contributor which would definitely factor into team wins.
I am speaking about a hypothetical situation where Tim Beckham never has much major league success. Picking at 1.1 I would say most would consider that a bust.
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
yeah. i dont do the bust thing with mlb draft really just because its such a crapshoot.
the top of that draft isnt nearly as sexy now as it was then. if only harper had been in that draft.
There wasn't a clear cut stud in that draft
Unfortunately for us
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Yeah, this guy is in terrible shape
http://stacktv.stack.com/Baseball/Tim-Beckham-Interview/Tim-Beckham-Going-From-Raw-to-Legit.html
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
by Sandy Kazmir on Feb 9, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
He is forced to wear 3XL shorts because that's the only size that fits his giant ass
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
HJL shocked the hell out of me.
12th best!
/boner time
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 9, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be interested to know what KLAW's thoughts are on Brignac
because I see Lee being very similar in that he will be almost all glove at SS. He should hit for a higher average and get on base a bit more but not by a ton. Unless he thinks Lee has like Ozzie Smith, Omar Vizquel like upside with the glove.
"get a base a bit more"
If you mean “get on base a ton more” than I agree with you.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 9, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
Derp
Chris (Tampa)
Your very high on Hak Ju Lee, how would you compare his defense to current Rays SS Reid Brignac.
Klaw (2:05 PM)
Better all around.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 9, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
I still wonder how good his offense is going to have to carry over to the big leagues to make him worth of a top 15 prospect
I still have worries he will hit over a .265/.340/.390 career line, which isn’t bad but I’m not sure I’d have him top 15 with that.
So you are worried he may be a 3.9 WAR player?
League average .316 wOBA, a plus 3 baserunning and a plus 3 fielding makes him a 3.9 WAR player. That is a top 50 player. So a bad-case scenario is a top 50 player?
I think there is a pretty big difference between a top 15 and top 50 player
I hope I’m wrong but I would have Lee closer to 40-50 than top 15.
The Show is comprised of players that were former top 15 players, what you're arguing is insane
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
He's going to hit something like .280/.350/.375 if everything breaks right. That's pretty solid at SS
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
It's John Jaso with most likely pretty good defense
If Jaso could field his position even slightly above average, he’d still be here and we wouldn’t be pipedreaming about catchers
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
And we'd be in a pretty solid position
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
If everything breaks right, he will hit better than that.
Not likely, but a ceiling is never likely.
agreed, but not by much.
i think his absolute ceiling is jose reyes. jose reyes career slash line is .292 /.341/.441/.782. granted he has years where he opses .850, but you expect that variance from a guy who puts a lot of balls in play.
Maybe a bit more power, but I don't think that's very likely, I doubt he walks more than 9% in the Show
I feel what I’ve pegged is pretty optimistic, feel free to dial it up a notch
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Raffy Furcal had a .282/.348/.408 .336 wOBA from 2000-2011
I’d take Raffy for the next decade.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
I think the glove and speed will be similar, but I don't think he hits with as much power (.120 ISO at most vs. Reyes' .150), but he should walk a little bit more
So yeah I agree a slightly better OBP while riding the BABIP wave up and down, with less power. I think Furcal works better and you just hope he isn’t as frail
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
I'd agree with not hitting for as much power.
He’s a frail guy and there doesn’t appear to be much room for growth. I know he’s shown a little more pop than you’d expect from his stature, but I don’t know how it’ll translate to the majors. Still, as long as he puts the bat on the ball and runs like the wind I think it’ll work out fine given his other skills.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2012 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
as long as he puts the bat on the ball
that’s teh biggest key. continuing to make lots of contact and that the contact is solid ld-contact.
yeah. i doubt he'll ever hit 19 hrs.
thats why i think reyes’ career averages which put him just under double-digit HRs.
The point is that you can't label someone's ceiling as something they have exceeded in the minors.
It is a nice-case scenarion, but it isn’t his ceiling.
i try to reign in my "ceilings" to reasonable approximations of best-case scenario as opposed to pie in the sky scenario.
youll underrate some guys that really break out, but i try to make them as realistic as possible. maybe i shouldnt call what i call ceiling, though.
This would be amazing
but are you just pulling those numbers out of your ass or is there something behind them?
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
i come up with similar ones by looking at his milb k/bb-rate and projecting a just over .100 iso.
15% k-rate, 9% walk rate, and .120ish iso as he adds power but less gappers go for 3 bags. if he hits 5 hrs and has 600 PAs then his slash-line would be roughly .314/.376/.434 with a .330 babip. so you adjust that down a bit because i cant imagine projecting a guy that high (i like him as a .280ish average guy), and you get .280/.342/.400.
I'd prefer to use the term intuition based on his skillset
He’s going to be a speedy, high contact guy, that puts the ball in play a bunch but I don’t think he’ll bring the power as well as he did to start last year. Let’s say he gets 650 PA, and walks 8.5% (55 walks) so that’s 595 ABs. Let’s say he strikes out 15% (my least confident guess, 98 Strikeouts) that leaves 497 BIP. Let’s say with his wheels he puts up a .315 BABIP (Furcal and Reyes both at .314 over last decade) so you’d expect 157 H (BABIP doesn’t include HRs so let’s peg that at 5 making total hits = 162). That’s a .272 BA and with that level of walks then it’s a .334 OBP. Lastly, let’s say that 70% of his hits are singles, 22% are doubles, and 5% are triples, and we use that 3% figure for homers (113, 36, 8, 5) you get a SLG of .384.
So my spitball guesses are probably more of what I think he would be, but if you ask me for a ceiling of what he could become then roll some of those things up to the Furcal territory of .282/.348/.408 vs. what I just WAG’d of .272/.334/.384 which works out to a .320 wOBA. Some years his BABIP will be really high and his numbers will be up well above these levels most likely resulting in him being on the all star team. Some years they won’t be falling in and it will seem like down years, but throughout the ups and downs he’ll display very nice defense making him an average player at worst.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Crazy how similar we were on this, Randy
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
And if he gets that 15% SO rate down to say 10% then you're talking about a line of
.289/.349/.406, so again, he’ll benefit from more contact
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Here is some video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMSs6FUPJd8
It certainly isn’t a swing conductive of power, but it isn’t a typical Asian slap-swing. He won’t hit too many homers with that swing, but I don’t think it will stop him from hitting plenty of doubles.
I've got him at 49 XBH with those percentages, I'd take that in a heartbeat even if the doubles stay doubles
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Congrats, dude
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
Gonna give any deets or should we wait for Det. Gilliss to step onto the scene?
(Sorry for going off topic on this Slowski, but I’m genuinely happy for a friend, ban me if you must)
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
it's as a financial/data consultant for a startup consulting firm.
ill be leading their more technical engagement on a a huge investment firm.
I will be watching Enny this season in Charlotte
Anyone else worthy?
yup yup
luke bailey and cody rogers to a lesser extent. the pitching should be really interesting as well. apart from enny, riefenhauser, linsky will probably be there, wilking (?), joe cruz is a possibility, and maybe garvin at some point.
Lenny Linsky should be there too at some point.
"I don't believe in just being out there and just grinding away. Let's do it intelligently, let's do it quickly, let's get it done. And then move on." ----Joe Maddon
Lenny Linsky sounds like a civil servant
I can’t take a ballplayer seriously unless he has a ballplayer name.
If you want to hear more in depth stuff, KLAW and Karabell talk about the rankings on the newest podcast
http://sports.espn.go.com/espnradio/podcast/archive?id=2386164
You can probably skip over Schilling promoting his new video game amongst other awful opinions, but the explanations of the rankings are nice.
I got away from the one thing that kept me on the straight and narrow, and that was my relationship with the Lord
interesting note from his chat
john slanina (struthers ohio)
just saw the indians purchased canzler from the rays he was triple a mvp. my question is why would the rays give this guy to us for money? is he mlb ready?
Klaw
(2:00 PM)
Because he’s not very good. No position. Bat off the bench, maybe.
I wish I knew how a scout could see his bat isn't good.
I do fine judging pitchers, but I am lost on hitters. His stroke seems short and compact, and I’d say the bat speed isn’t bad.
I've heard murmurs about the bat speed and approach.
I didn’t see many Durham games, obviously, but I’m guessing he either sits dead-red and waits for a fastball. Could also be a bad ball hitter, which was Ruggiano’s rep for a minute there.
by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Smarter pick in a dynasty fantasy league? Cespedes or Machado?
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 9, 2012 2:10 PM EST reply actions
It really depends on what you are looking for
but I say Machado
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Can't say I agree with this
Todd (WDC)
Thanks for the rankings. I was surprised the Nats were 20 +/-, which is fine. I respect your opinion. That being said wouldn’t you rather have the Nats farm right now over San Diego just based on Harper and Rendon (high ceilings). The seem like they could have a bigger impact for the Nats based on San Diego’s top 10 combined, which of course I know nothing about…
Klaw (2:26 PM)
No, I wouldn’t. The dropoff after the Nats’ first two is substantial, and it continues sliding after that.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 9, 2012 2:26 PM EST reply actions
You don't agree with Law or with Todd?
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
If a team could literally trade the farm(system)
I have a hard time believing that 19 teams wouldn’t trade with the Nats.
I think those 2 players alone make it a top 10 system
October 28th, 2011-- a date which will live in infamy--
OTTOTD.com
Normally I would agree with Keith. I would take a deep system over a top heavy system.
But in this case, with Harper and Rendon, how the hell do you not take those two? Harper alone may be enough.
by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Feb 9, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Rendon isn't a straight A grade spec, keep in mind
There are the (minor) red flags around him
by benderbrodriguez on Feb 9, 2012 10:37 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Please read our Community Guidelines.
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
DRB Suggestion Box
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
