DRaysBay Prospect Predictions Series: The Overrated

Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Although many would love to believe that no Rays' prospect is overrated, that often isn't the case. The odds are that a potential flaw is overlooked, whether it is a low K rate for a pitcher (Thompson, Jacob), a high walk rate for a pitcher (Shuman, Scott), a lack of pro data (Sale, Josh), or some other warning sign. Today, the panel of experts will determine which prospects they think are overrated or overhyped.

After the jump is a list of the participants, today's question, and their answers.

The experts that decided to take part in the list are as follows: Jim Callis of Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Frankie Piliere of Scout.com, David Rawnsley of Perfect Game, and John Sickels of Minor League Ball.

Here is today's question:

Who is the most overrated/over-hyped Rays prospect?


Jim Callis: There's not a guy who jumps out to me as overhyped. Starting at the top, Matt Moore is unbelievable, Hak-Ju Lee is one of the best shortstop prospects in the minors, Chris Archer and Taylor Guerrieri have great arms, etc. I looked at Rays prospects rankings by other people I respect (Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo) and I don't see anyone who looks really out of whack. If I have to pick someone, I have seen Tim Beckham on a couple of overall Top 100 Prospects list, and I've seen people question how Josh Sale failed to make our Rays Top 30. I don't see Beckham as a Top 100 guy because I see him as a solid regular at best and think that might be a stretch, and I don't see how Sale (an all-bat guy who hasn't hit) merits being on a Rays Top 30 at this point.


Kevin Goldstein: I don't know. Who's doing the ratings? I don't find any Rays prospect to be way over-hyped as much as I find the system as a whole to be over-hyped. With Matt Moore in the big leagues, this is suddenly a pretty mediocre system.


Frankie Piliere: This is never an easy one to answer. I'm going to point to a guy that I still think will be good. Taylor Guerrieri might just have a little more of an adjustment period than maybe people hope. I feel pretty confident he'll be very good, but might not be as easy as people hope. I honestly don't think anyone is too over hyped, by definition, in their system though.


David Rawnsley: I’m not sure what constitutes over-hyped but Brandon Guyer isn’t a "prospect" in the classic sense. He’s 26 years old and does not project to be a starter with a .500+ ball club. He could be a 4th outfielder/platoon guy for the Rays but I think that’s about it.

I was disappointed by Chris Archer’s 2011 season. You have to be damn good to break into the Rays big league rotation and he took a bunch of steps backwards. Being a middle reliever isn’t a bad big league job at all and the Rays are in the position of developing their own instead of paying market veteran prices, which is a great thing, but that looks like Archer’s direction.


John Sickels: I'm pretty suspicious about Luke Bailey's ability to make contact against better pitching.


Once again, I would like to thank the experts for participating. The series will continue through Wednesday.

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