DRaysBay Prospect Predictions Series: The Overrated

Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.

Although many would love to believe that no Rays' prospect is overrated, that often isn't the case. The odds are that a potential flaw is overlooked, whether it is a low K rate for a pitcher (Thompson, Jacob), a high walk rate for a pitcher (Shuman, Scott), a lack of pro data (Sale, Josh), or some other warning sign. Today, the panel of experts will determine which prospects they think are overrated or overhyped.

After the jump is a list of the participants, today's question, and their answers.

The experts that decided to take part in the list are as follows: Jim Callis of Baseball America, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, Frankie Piliere of Scout.com, David Rawnsley of Perfect Game, and John Sickels of Minor League Ball.

Here is today's question:

Who is the most overrated/over-hyped Rays prospect?

Jim Callis: There's not a guy who jumps out to me as overhyped. Starting at the top, Matt Moore is unbelievable, Hak-Ju Lee is one of the best shortstop prospects in the minors, Chris Archer and Taylor Guerrieri have great arms, etc. I looked at Rays prospects rankings by other people I respect (Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo) and I don't see anyone who looks really out of whack. If I have to pick someone, I have seen Tim Beckham on a couple of overall Top 100 Prospects list, and I've seen people question how Josh Sale failed to make our Rays Top 30. I don't see Beckham as a Top 100 guy because I see him as a solid regular at best and think that might be a stretch, and I don't see how Sale (an all-bat guy who hasn't hit) merits being on a Rays Top 30 at this point.

Kevin Goldstein: I don't know. Who's doing the ratings? I don't find any Rays prospect to be way over-hyped as much as I find the system as a whole to be over-hyped. With Matt Moore in the big leagues, this is suddenly a pretty mediocre system.

Frankie Piliere: This is never an easy one to answer. I'm going to point to a guy that I still think will be good. Taylor Guerrieri might just have a little more of an adjustment period than maybe people hope. I feel pretty confident he'll be very good, but might not be as easy as people hope. I honestly don't think anyone is too over hyped, by definition, in their system though.

David Rawnsley: I’m not sure what constitutes over-hyped but Brandon Guyer isn’t a "prospect" in the classic sense. He’s 26 years old and does not project to be a starter with a .500+ ball club. He could be a 4th outfielder/platoon guy for the Rays but I think that’s about it.

I was disappointed by Chris Archer’s 2011 season. You have to be damn good to break into the Rays big league rotation and he took a bunch of steps backwards. Being a middle reliever isn’t a bad big league job at all and the Rays are in the position of developing their own instead of paying market veteran prices, which is a great thing, but that looks like Archer’s direction.

John Sickels: I'm pretty suspicious about Luke Bailey's ability to make contact against better pitching.

Once again, I would like to thank the experts for participating. The series will continue through Wednesday.

Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.