Noted site writer and friend to many important people Jason F. Collette issued the following comments following the tough loss last night:
Price now has 5 no-decisions this season37 IP, 22 H, 5 ER, 2 HR, 10 BB, 37 K’s, 1.22 ERA
he should have 20 wins already
by Jason Collette on Aug 21, 2012 7:11 PM PDT reply actions
I just think it is amazing to think that a pitcher could be a 20 game winner at mid-August. Can’t recall a guy doing that in recent memory. I had no idea how amazing he has been in his no-decisions.
It's no secret to site readers that Pitcher Wins is a largely meaningless stat. However, the statements also make a flawed assumption. They are ignoring the possibility that Price has had a few cheap wins out if his 16 wins. Its the same logic that looks at the Rays hot streak and says, "Just wait until Longo starts hitting!" and ignoring the point that the rest of the roster is highly unlikely to keep up the recent pace (Luke Hochevar says, "Sup").
So how many wins should David Price really be expected to have based on his performance? Bill James created a metric years ago called GameScore which is designed to measure the quality of a start. The formula for calculating a GameScore is below courtesy of baseball-reference.com:
GSc 6 -- Game Score
Developed by Bill James
1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.
GameScore also has its flaws, but if we cluster starts by GameScores, we can come up with David Price's Win Expectancy based on all 2012 AL GameScores. For example a GameScore of 46, has resulted in a Pitcher Win just 5 out of 30 times this season, resulting in .2 Expected Wins. David Price received a full pitcher win in a victory over Toronto on 4/18.
The table below lists Price's starts along with theGame Score and Win Expectancy of each outing.
Start# |
Date |
Opp |
Dec |
GSc |
ExWin% |
Wins |
Outings |
1 |
Apr 7 |
NYY |
W |
56 |
33% |
15 |
45 |
2 |
Apr 13 |
BOS |
L |
39 |
17% |
5 |
30 |
3 |
Apr 18 |
TOR |
W |
46 |
17% |
5 |
30 |
4 |
Apr 24 |
LAA |
W |
82 |
100% |
8 |
8 |
5 |
Apr 29 |
TEX |
W |
58 |
35% |
17 |
48 |
6 |
May 4 |
OAK |
W |
83 |
60% |
3 |
5 |
7 |
May 10 |
NYY |
L |
36 |
23% |
6 |
26 |
8 |
May 15 |
TOR |
W |
59 |
53% |
18 |
34 |
9 |
May 20 |
ATL |
L |
63 |
62% |
23 |
37 |
10 |
May 26 |
BOS |
|
59 |
53% |
18 |
34 |
11 |
Jun 1 |
BAL |
W |
73 |
85% |
17 |
20 |
12 |
Jun 7 |
NYY |
W |
61 |
69% |
22 |
32 |
13 |
Jun 13 |
NYM |
L |
26 |
7% |
1 |
15 |
14 |
Jun 19 |
WSN |
W |
54 |
29% |
10 |
35 |
15 |
Jun 24(1) |
PHI |
W |
70 |
65% |
15 |
23 |
16 |
Jun 29 |
DET |
W |
65 |
73% |
22 |
30 |
17 |
Jul 4 |
NYY |
|
71 |
76% |
16 |
21 |
18 |
Jul 14 |
BOS |
W |
61 |
69% |
22 |
32 |
19 |
Jul 19 |
CLE |
W |
77 |
86% |
12 |
14 |
20 |
Jul 25 |
BAL |
W |
69 |
76% |
25 |
33 |
21 |
Jul 30 |
OAK |
|
64 |
53% |
21 |
40 |
22 |
Aug 5 |
BAL |
|
80 |
80% |
8 |
10 |
23 |
Aug 11 |
MIN |
W |
60 |
39% |
11 |
28 |
24 |
Aug 16 |
LAA |
W |
77 |
86% |
12 |
14 |
25 |
Aug 22 |
KCR |
84 |
60% |
3 |
5 |
|
ExWins |
14.05 |
Granted some of the samples are very small and the % would rise in a larger sample, but it turns out pitchers don't receive pitcher wins somewhat regularly when they pitch well. Whoulda thunk? David Price's 16 Pitcher Wins are actually nearly two full wins above his Win Expectancy based on GameScore. That David Price is a lucky guy. Remember, if a pitcher pitches well often, he is more likely to have games where he pitches well and doesn't receive a win.