FanPost

David Price Should Not Have 20 Wins By Now

Noted site writer and friend to many important people Jason F. Collette issued the following comments following the tough loss last night:

Price now has 5 no-decisions this season

37 IP, 22 H, 5 ER, 2 HR, 10 BB, 37 K’s, 1.22 ERA

he should have 20 wins already

by Jason Collette on Aug 21, 2012 7:11 PM PDT reply actions

I just think it is amazing to think that a pitcher could be a 20 game winner at mid-August. Can’t recall a guy doing that in recent memory. I had no idea how amazing he has been in his no-decisions.

It's no secret to site readers that Pitcher Wins is a largely meaningless stat. However, the statements also make a flawed assumption. They are ignoring the possibility that Price has had a few cheap wins out if his 16 wins. Its the same logic that looks at the Rays hot streak and says, "Just wait until Longo starts hitting!" and ignoring the point that the rest of the roster is highly unlikely to keep up the recent pace (Luke Hochevar says, "Sup").

So how many wins should David Price really be expected to have based on his performance? Bill James created a metric years ago called GameScore which is designed to measure the quality of a start. The formula for calculating a GameScore is below courtesy of baseball-reference.com:

GSc 6 -- Game Score
Developed by Bill James
1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

GameScore also has its flaws, but if we cluster starts by GameScores, we can come up with David Price's Win Expectancy based on all 2012 AL GameScores. For example a GameScore of 46, has resulted in a Pitcher Win just 5 out of 30 times this season, resulting in .2 Expected Wins. David Price received a full pitcher win in a victory over Toronto on 4/18.

The table below lists Price's starts along with theGame Score and Win Expectancy of each outing.

Start#

Date

Opp

Dec

GSc

ExWin%

Wins

Outings

1

Apr 7

NYY

W

56

33%

15

45

2

Apr 13

BOS

L

39

17%

5

30

3

Apr 18

TOR

W

46

17%

5

30

4

Apr 24

LAA

W

82

100%

8

8

5

Apr 29

TEX

W

58

35%

17

48

6

May 4

OAK

W

83

60%

3

5

7

May 10

NYY

L

36

23%

6

26

8

May 15

TOR

W

59

53%

18

34

9

May 20

ATL

L

63

62%

23

37

10

May 26

BOS

59

53%

18

34

11

Jun 1

BAL

W

73

85%

17

20

12

Jun 7

NYY

W

61

69%

22

32

13

Jun 13

NYM

L

26

7%

1

15

14

Jun 19

WSN

W

54

29%

10

35

15

Jun 24(1)

PHI

W

70

65%

15

23

16

Jun 29

DET

W

65

73%

22

30

17

Jul 4

NYY

71

76%

16

21

18

Jul 14

BOS

W

61

69%

22

32

19

Jul 19

CLE

W

77

86%

12

14

20

Jul 25

BAL

W

69

76%

25

33

21

Jul 30

OAK

64

53%

21

40

22

Aug 5

BAL

80

80%

8

10

23

Aug 11

MIN

W

60

39%

11

28

24

Aug 16

LAA

W

77

86%

12

14

25

Aug 22

KCR

84

60%

3

5

ExWins

14.05

Granted some of the samples are very small and the % would rise in a larger sample, but it turns out pitchers don't receive pitcher wins somewhat regularly when they pitch well. Whoulda thunk? David Price's 16 Pitcher Wins are actually nearly two full wins above his Win Expectancy based on GameScore. That David Price is a lucky guy. Remember, if a pitcher pitches well often, he is more likely to have games where he pitches well and doesn't receive a win.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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