Playoff Rosters, Part 8: ALDS Game 1 Lineups and Projections

Ronald Martinez

Here are the announced Rays and Red Sox lineups and how they should be expected to perform versus the starting pitchers. The wOBA projections are regressed platoon splits calculated using ZiPS RoS projections (note: projections are from early September) and Bojan Koprivica's platoon research.

All projections come from a wOBA tool created by Jason Hanselman and our own Ian Malinowski.

Position Batter Hand wOBA
CF Desmond Jennings R .331
2B Ben Zobrist S .337
RF Wil Myers R .355
3B Evan Longoria R .367
DH Delmon Young R .319
LF Sean Rodriguez R .306
SS Yunel Escobar R .319
1B James Loney L .284
C Jose Lobaton S .316

The Rays results against Lester may be entirely dependent on how prepared they will be for where he's throwing. Lester has excellent breaking pitches that he can throw outside the zone and on the edges, much like Cobb in Wednesday's Wild Card game. Lester has an improved cutter and a 94 MPH fastball that's been getting stronger all season -- compared to Moore, who's seen his velocity diminish.

Wil Myers takes a bump backwards to third in the line up this afternoon, following his three strikeout performance on Wednesday. The move gives Myers less pressure in terms of run creation -- the third slot is regarded as less important than lead off, second, or fourth in Tango's book -- while keeping him high in the order to gather more at bats and opportunities.

Position Batter Hand wOBA
CF Jacoby Ellsbury L .287
RF Shane Victorino S .365
2B Dustin Pedroia R .348
DH David Ortiz L .323
1B Mike Napoli R .349
LF Jonny Gomes R .337
C Jarrod Saltalamacchia S .291
SS Stephen Drew L .278
3B Will Middlebrooks R .305

Tim Britton ran a great write up on Game 1 starter Matt Moore this morning, and I highly reccomend his take to refresh on the greatness of what Matt Moore could be.

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