ALDS game 3 lineups and projections

Batting cleanup. - Tom Szczerbowski

Joe Maddon puts our discussion to rest.

Here are the announced Rays and Red Sox lineups and how they should be expected to perform versus the starting pitchers. The wOBA projections are regressed platoon splits calculated using ZiPS RoS projections (note: projections are from early September) and Bojan Koprivica's platoon research.

All statistics were calculated using a wOBA projection tool created by Jason Hanselman of Dock of the Rays and our own Ian Malinowski.

The Rays:

Positon Player Hand Projection
LF David DeJesus L 0.325
2B Ben Zobrist S 0.332
3B Evan Longoria R 0.325
RF Wil Myers R 0.319
1B James Loney L 0.340
CF Desmond Jennings R 0.290
DH Matt Joyce L 0.343
SS Yunel Escobar R 0.288
CF Jose Molina R 0.249

So the great debate is over. Joyce has not been kidnapped, his arm is not broken, he does not have a concussion. He just had a manager who (likely) played sub-optimally for a couple days.

Oh well, time to move on. This is a strong lineup to field in an elimination game. The Rays best bats, those able to withstand the platoon disadvantage and still be productive, are right-handed. Combine that with a few good platoon-lefties and it becomes a pretty scary bunch.

And this time, if Craig Breslow comes into the game, Delmon Young will be waiting for him.

The Red Sox:

Positon Player Hand Projection
CF Jacoby Ellsbury L 0.337
RF Shane Victorino S 0.323
2B Dustin Pedroia R 0.303
DH David Ortiz L 0.409
1B Mike Napoli R 0.305
LF Daniel Nava S 0.359
CF Jarrod Saltalamacchia S 0.338
SS Stephen Drew L 0.334
3B Will Middlebrooks R 0.264

Also a strong lineup. Ortiz against a righty is positively frightening. To be the best, you have to beat the best. May as well start now.

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