Rosterbation: Constructing A Roster With Zips, PECOTA, and Regressed Splits

J. Meric

Putting together the strongest (while still reasonable) offensive lineup versus RHP and LHP using Zips, PECOTA, and Whelk's regressed splits tool.

With Zips and PECOTA projections released and the Rays team finally taking shape, we can accurately construct lineups. While the days of rosterbation have dimmed since the days of joeybw (RIP), I encourage the community to take a shot at it in the comments section.

As it stands, the following 25 players are likely to make the major league team:

Hitters:

Evan Longoria
Yunel Escobar
James Loney
Ben Zobrist
Kelly Johnson
Ryan Roberts
Luke Scott
Matt Joyce
Desmond Jennings
Jose Molina
Jose Lobaton
Sean Rodriguez
Sam Fuld

Pitchers:

David Price
Matt Moore
Jeremy Hellickson
Jeff Niemann
Alex Cobb
Roberto Hernandez
Fernando Rodney
Jake McGee
Kyle Farnsworth
Cesar Ramos
Joel Peralta
Jamey Wright

Technically, there is still competition for the final bullpen spot, but Jamey Wright is the heavy favorite. As far as who plays where and when, there is far more in the air. Should the Rays platoon at first base? Should Ryan Roberts or Sean Rodriguez platoon with Kelly Johnson? Should Luke Scott be platooned? By using the Zips and PECOTA projections and using Whelk's regressed splits tool, I will take attempt to form the most reasonable and optimal lineup for success in 2013.

Zips Versus RHP:

Position Player wOBA
1B James Loney .299
2B Kelly Johnson .320
SS Yunel Escobar .294
3B Evan Longoria .347
C Jose Molina .277
DH Luke Scott .328
LF Matt Joyce .355
RF Ben Zobrist .339
CF Desmond Jennings .322

And now for the Zips lineup against LHP:

Position Name wOBA
1B Ryan Roberts .314
2B Sean Rodriguez .319
SS Yunel Escobar .294
3B Evan Longoria .369
C Jose Molina .294
DH Luke Scott .295
LF Kelly Johnson .324
RF Ben Zobrist .358
CF Desmond Jennings .312

Now switching things over to PECOTA. Versus RHP:

Position Name wOBA
1B James Loney

.322

2B Kelly Johnson .301
SS Yunel Escobar .304
3B Evan Longoria .352
C Jose Lobaton .263
DH Luke Scott .331
LF Matt Joyce .352
RF Benson Zobrist .331
CF Desmond Jennings .311

PECOTA versus LHP:

Position Name wOBA
1B Ryan Roberts .314
2B Sean Rodriguez .333
SS Yunel Escobar .304
3B Evan Longoria .374
C Jose Molina .277
DH Luke Scott .297
LF Kelly Johnson .305
RF Ben Zobrist .352
CF Desmond Jennings .301

A few notes on the information....

  • For the most part, Zips and PECOTA agree on the lineups, differing only on the catching situation. While Zips prefers Jose Molina versus right and left handed pitchers, PECOTA actually prefer's Lobaton's bat against right handed pitchers. Obviously, Jose Molina will not start everyday. The point is that Zips prefers him against both handed pitchers while PECOTA does not.
  • Of the three left handed bats that struggle against left handed pitching, only Luke Scott managed to crack the lineup against southpaws. James Loney and Matt Joyce are replaced by Ryan Roberts and Kelly Johnson respectively. The move of Johnson to the outfield opens a spot for Sean Rodriguez.
  • The two projection systems view a few players quite differently. For example, PECOTA greatly favors Loney (.311 wOBA) compared to Zips (.289 wOBA). While Zips projects Jose Molina to hit for a .282 wOBA, PECOTA is far more pessimistic, penciling him in for a .266 wOBA. Sean Rodriguez is projected to hit for a .309 wOBA by PECOTA but only for a .296 wOBA by Zips.
  • While a common fear is that the lineup is much stronger against RHP than LHP, the projections and regressed splits show that by using effective platoons, the difference is minimal. Zips has the starters hitting for a .320 wOBA against both RHP and LHP. Meanwhile, PECOTA has them hitting for a .319 wOBA against RHP and a .317 wOBA against LHP.

So now I ask the community: how would you construct the lineup? Would you give Matt Joyce a good amount of starts against LHP (I would), or would you bench him? Would you utilize the rare platoon at first base?

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Join DRaysBay

You must be a member of DRaysBay to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at DRaysBay. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker