Rays at Rangers, game two: lineups and projections

SB Nation has only two pictures of Nick Tepesch. - USA TODAY Sports

Lineups and regressed splits projections for game two.

Here is tonight's Rays lineups with regressed split projections against Nick Tepesch. My usual go-to sytem, ZiPS, doesn't have a projection for Tepesch yet, but other systems, including my favorite for rookies, Oliver, project him to be about 20% below average. For the sake of producing numbers, I've assumed him to have an average right handed split. The details may not be quite right, but the the gist is pretty clear.

It's a pretty good lineup (although Kelly Johnson looks out of place in the ninth spot, and Jose Lobaton would be relatively better against the righty today with Jose Molina against the lefty Holland tomorrow) and Tepesch is purely a last resort for the Rangers. The Rays offense should score runs. If they don't, people will not be saying nice things about Derek Shelton tomorrow.

A graphical representation with numbers for non-starters is available in the series preview.

Rays Batters Projected wOBA
Desmond Jennings, CF
Matt Joyce, RF 0.414
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Evan Longoria, 3B
James Loney, 1B 0.365
Shelly Duncan, DH
Yunel Escobar, SS 0.332
Jose Molina, C
Kelly Johnson, LF

And the Rays better score runs, because this Texas lineup could be quite rude to Roberto Hernandez. The trick will be to keep the first two Rangers hitters (who may actually be the weakest portions of the lineup tonight) off the base paths because Lance Berkman, switch hitting in the middle, remains a beast.

Rangers Batters Projected wOBA
Ian Kinsler, 2B 0.327
Elvis Andrus, SS 0.303
Lance Berkman, DH 0.405
Adrian Beltre, 3B 0.346
David Murphy, LF 0.371
Nelson Cruz, RF 0.327
A.J. Pierzynski, C 0.352
Mitch Moreland, 1B 0.359
Leonys Martin, CF 0.352
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