Rays playoff odds, 14 games left

Oakland's taken control of their division, Texas now must defend the wild card. - Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

There are a few different ways you could view the last several days.

  1. The Rays won a series. Good.
  2. The Rays were up by two runs with four outs to go against the worst team left on their schedule, and they coughed up the lead. Bad.
  3. View the last several days?!? I didn't view them, and I don't plan on viewing the next ones, either. I just look at numbers. What are the playoff odds?

Well, since we last checked, the Oakland Athletics swept the Texas Rangers, and have taken a six and a half game lead in the West. That's turned the wild card into a six game race for two spots. Here's how each of those teams did.

Wins Losses Games back
Rays 2 1 -
Rangers 0 3 -
Indians 3 0 0.5
Orioles 2 1 2.5
Yankees 0 3 3.0
Royals 1 2 3.5

The Yankees drubbing was at the hands of the Red Sox, so yeah, Boston is still managing to assert it's dominance over the AL East even after they've locked up the title. Here's where the wildcard odds now stand, according to FanGraphs playoff odds and Baseball Prospectus's Pecota' playoff odds.:

Sept. 9 Sept. 13 Sept. 16
Coinn flip 52.5% 50.1% 60.1%
Season to-date 48.6% 45.8% 52.6%
FanGraphs 61.4% 63.9% 61.8%
Pecota 67.2% 62.8% 78.6%

Mostly that's good. The basic coin flip schedule is rounding into shape, and since we finally won a series, season to-date based predictions hate us a bit less. The interesting discrepancy is between FanGraphs and Pecota, which I really thought should behave more similarly. Pecota pegs us to have the best winning percentage among the competing teams going forward and gives us good odds. FanGraphs rates both the Yankees, and more importantly, the Indians (with their very easy schedule) as better than us, dropping our odds down to a comparatively bearish 61.8%. The FanGraphs projection went down because of the Indians sweep.

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