The Rays Tank: Hall of Fame Week

Hall of Famer? - Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

It's hall of fame election week, and Chris Jaffe over at The Hardball Times has used his statistical wiles to predict who will be elected.

If you're using fWAR to make hall of fame arguments for players active after 2002, you're probably making a mistake. Before 2002, fWAR used Total Zone Runs (TZ) to calculate defensive value, and had no baserunning component. After 2002, it uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) for defensive value, and Ultimate Baserunning Rating (UBR) for baserunning value. Ryan Romano at Beyond the Box Score looks at the switch between the two, and calculates which modern players look better and which look worse because of the change. (You could just use bWAR, but give Ryan a read anyway.)

Joe Posnanski is my go-to guy when it comes to reading about the Hall of Fame. Here's his main hall of fame article, but there are others on the site to check out as well.

Jeffrey Bellone of Beyond the Box Score looked at the concentration of big bats on world series teams. The conclusion? World series teams are more likely to have a concentration of the league's best hitters. There's nothing wrong with Bellone's work, but I want to make something clear, as I worry that this conclusion will pop up in the comments here in a way that will annoy. This does not mean that you need three elite hitters to win the world series. I imagine that a similar study looking at pitchers would also turn up a positive result. It's better to have great players than to not have them, but looking at one aspect of greatness doesn't mean that aspect is more important than the others. This is why WAR exists.

There's consistently fine work coming out of the FanGraphs Community Blog. Brandon Firstname makes the point that all of our ERA estimators are flawed because they're estimating ERA. Groundballs turn into errors more often than flyballs, so ERA rewards groundballers above and beyond their true vale.  Firstname does good work calculating the magnitude of the discrepancy.

Kyle Boddy (of Driveline Mechanics) has a short post on THT (with lots of videos) focusing on Trevor Bauer's mechanics and process.

Remember to vote in the community prospect lists series. I love them, even though I rarely know who to vote for. It's like a second Christmas to come back from vacation and see that series already up and running.

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