Is it time to worry about the Rays offense?

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

They've scored only 3.2 runs per game, and two runs or less in half of the fourteen games they've played this season. Only five players have hit at an above average rate, and one of them, Sean Rodriguez, does not play everyday.

Name PA wOBA
Matt Joyce 41 0.451
Ben Zobrist 60 0.384
Sean Rodriguez 13 0.368
Desmond Jennings 56 0.354
Evan Longoria 58 0.352
James Loney 50 0.301
Ryan Hanigan 33 0.267
David DeJesus 34 0.257
Wil Myers 50 0.248
Yunel Escobar 50 0.241
Logan Forsythe 30 0.221
Brandon Guyer 11 0.196
Jose Molina 15 0.059

So, is it time to freak out? How much should the first fourteen days of the season change your opinion of an offense? Well, there are smart people standing by to answer that exact question.

Before the season began, the major projection systems looked at each Rays player's prior history and his age, and gave an estimate of what to expect from that player in 2014. Now, both the ZiPS and the Steamer projection system have started incorporating the new information we have from the season into their projections. They know that Wil Myers is currently batting .217/.280/.261. They actually think that the new information is more telling than the old, so they weigh it more heavily. Here's what they predict.


Player Original wOBA RoS wOBA Difference
Evan Longoria 0.354 0.355 0.001
Ben Zobrist 0.337 0.341 0.004
Matt Joyce 0.336 0.344 0.008
Wil Myers 0.331 0.328 -0.003
Desmond Jennings 0.322 0.324 0.002
James Loney 0.306 0.306 0
Brandon Guyer 0.306 0.304 -0.002
David DeJesus 0.305 0.302 -0.003
Sean Rodriguez 0.305 0.307 0.002
Yunel Escobar 0.300 0.296 -0.004
Logan Forsythe 0.292 0.287 -0.005
Ryan Hanigan 0.290 0.288 -0.002
Kevin Kiermaier 0.283 0.281 -0.002
Jose Molina 0.268 0.260 -0.008

Average: -.001


Player Original wOBA RoS wOBA Difference
Evan Longoria 0.360 0.358 -0.002
Ben Zobrist 0.340 0.342 0.002
Matt Joyce 0.336 0.339 0.003
Wil Myers 0.333 0.329 -0.004
Desmond Jennings 0.316 0.316 0
Vince Belnome 0.313 0.311 -0.002
James Loney 0.311 0.312 0.001
David DeJesus 0.307 0.306 -0.001
Logan Forsythe 0.305 0.301 -0.004
Brandon Guyer 0.302 0.301 -0.001
Yunel Escobar 0.302 0.300 -0.002
Sean Rodriguez 0.296 0.297 0.001
Ryan Hanigan 0.288 0.288 0
Kevin Kiermaier 0.287 0.284 -0.003
Jose Molina 0.270 0.265 -0.005

Average: -.001

Both projection systems are discouraged by the Rays slow start, but not by much. They now think that the Rays will be .001 points of wOBA worse than they originally thought. That translates to about 4.7 runs, or half a win over the course of an entire season.

Should you worry? That's really your call. For reference, Matt Moore's season-ending injury is probably about a three-win loss, unless one of his replacements steps up big. Wins matter in a stacked AL East, but don't read TOO much into the slow offensive start.

All stats from FanGraphs.

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