Are the Rays approaching disaster?

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Rays are on the brink of a very long season. 2009 all over again: a really great team assembled, and nothing doing.

Five and a half games is surmountable in the AL East, which is where the Rays currently are, but more than seven games back might be devastating. How dire is the situation?

The good news is that the division remain's tight, but the Rays have dropped from a coin flip for the playoffs, down to... well... it depends on who you ask.

Fangraphs:

2014 Year to Date 2014 Projected Standings / Playoff Probabilities
Team W L W% GB EXPW EXPL rosW% DIV WC POFF DOFF ALDS ALCS WS
Boston 19 18 .514 1.5 87.1 74.9 .545 48.4 % 13.8 % 62.2 % 55.8 % 29.5 % 15.6 % 9.6 %
Toronto 19 20 .487 2.5 82.4 79.6 .515 16.7 % 12.5 % 29.2 % 22.8 % 10.6 % 5.2 % 2.8 %
New York 19 18 .514 1.5 82.1 79.9 .504 14.4 % 12.2 % 26.6 % 20.6 % 8.8 % 3.7 % 1.9 %
Baltimore 20 16 .556 0.0 81.2 80.8 .486 12.3 % 10.3 % 22.6 % 17.1 % 6.7 % 2.9 % 1.5 %
Tampa Bay 16 23 .410 5.5 79.9 82.1 .519 8.1 % 7.8 % 16.0 % 12.1 % 5.7 % 2.8 % 1.5 %

Baseball Prospectus:

Rnk Team
Win

Loss

Expected
Win Pct

Sim
Win

Sim
Loss

Div
Pct

WC
Pct
Sorted Descending
Playoff
Pct

Playoff
Pct (Adj)

WS Win
Pct

1 Day
Delta

7 Day
Delta













1 Boston 19 18 .526 84.6 77.4 37.2% 15.2% 52.4% 45.0% 6.5% 0.5% 8.6%
2 New York 19 18 .513 83.4 78.6 28.0% 15.8% 43.8% 35.9% 4.4% -3.4% -2.6%
3 Toronto 19 20 .501 80.5 81.5 12.1% 11.6% 23.7% 17.8% 1.9% 2.5% 1.8%
4 Tampa Bay 16 23 .522 80.0 82.0 11.5% 10.7% 22.2% 17.0% 2.3% -2.7% -26.3%
5 Baltimore 20 16 .474 79.7 82.3 11.3% 9.5% 20.7% 15.7% 1.1% -2.3% 3.4%

Vegas Insider:

AL WS
New York 6:1 12:1
Boston 13:2 14:1
Tampa Bay 8:1 14:1
Baltimore 15:1 25:1
Toronto 20:1 40:1

Personally, my gut says the Rays are on the edge. Losing this series to the Mariners could have a lasting impact after failing to take either series in the last home stand.

Of course, if the rest of the division continues to lose games, the fall is stymied. But travelling to the Angels next (a four game set) should be even more difficult than this stop in Seattle.

All of that is to ask, where do you fall on the Rays' current outlook?

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