Rays at Yankees GDT 3: Tanaka troubles

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

He's good.

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The Rays will have a tough time today. Simply put: Jake Odorizzi is no Masahiro Tanaka. The rookie from southern Japan has been unstoppable. By my count, he has faced 1 terrible offense (the Cubs), two decent offenses (the Orioles and Blue Jays), and two great offenses (the Angels and Red Sox). The results have been about the same with each:

Date Team Opp GS W L IP R ER HR BB SO K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP
4/27/2014 NYY LAA 1 0 0 6.1 2 2 1 4 11 15.63 5.68 1.42 0.364 93.0% 50.0% 25.0% 2.84 4.07 2.83
4/22/2014 NYY @BOS 1 1 0 7.1 2 2 2 0 7 8.59 0 2.45 0.263 100.0% 42.9% 33.3% 2.45 4.76 2.27
4/16/2014 NYY CHC 1 1 0 8 0 0 0 1 10 11.25 1.13 0 0.125 100.0% 46.2% 0.0% 0.00 1.00 1.96
4/9/2014 NYY BAL 1 0 0 7 3 3 1 1 10 12.86 1.29 1.29 0.353 75.8% 38.9% 25.0% 3.86 2.55 1.43
4/4/2014 NYY @TOR 1 1 0 7 3 2 1 0 8 10.29 0 1.29 0.278 65.2% 63.2% 16.7% 2.57 2.70 1.94
Total - - - - - - 5 3 0 35.2 10 9 5 6 46 11.61 1.51 1.26 0.272 88.9% 48.2% 19.2% 2.27 2.96 2.07

So what's the secret to beating Tanaka? That's the problem. No one knows. There's a chance he's got a reverse platoon split (see Tommy's article), but he's also got a 40% K-rate against righties, so if I'm making wagers, I'm going to be on the 40% K-rate, not the .400 BABIP. Tanaka had a 2.30 ERA in Japan. Over his final 600 IP there, he had about a 1.50 ERA. The guy is good at playing baseball.

But every pitcher can have a bad day. And maybe Odorizzi can have a good day? He hasn't really had a good day since his first day this season. So maybe he's due.

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