As we give up on 2014... 2015 is right around the corner! Anyone care to join with me in the fun of venturing a guess as to what the Rays 2015 25-man might look like - not necessarily opening day, but who gets the playing time over the course of the season with injuries factored in:
Here's my guess (along with WAR):
C1: Trade or FA (not in-house) 75% - long shot a Molina return @ 40
C2: Hanagan 25%
1B: James Loney
2B: Ben Zobrist
3B: Evan Longoria
SS: Yunel Escobar
LF: Trade or FA (not in-house) or David DeJesus
CF: Desmond Jennings
RF: Matt Joyce
DH: Wil Myers
Bench1: Sean Rodriguez
Bench2: Brandon Guyer
Bench3: Promotion other than current 25-man, probably Tim Beckham
SP1: Matt Moore
SP2: Alex Cobb
SP3: Drew Smyly
SP4: Chris Archer
SP5: Jeremy Hellickson
RP1: Jake McGee
RP2: Brad BoxBerger
RP3: Jake Ordorzzi
RP4: Trade or FA
RP5: Jake Beliveau
RP6: Kirby Yates
RP7: Trade or FA
In a rosy scenario, I see C getting filled by someone good in exchange for pitching (not going to happen in today's market) and perhaps an upgrade at LF in return for a Kevin Kiermaier and a top pitching prospect. If we were going super rosy, Escobar would also get traded in a mega deal that looked like the following:
Rays Send:
- B+ to A pitching prospect
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Kevin Kiermaier
- Above-average major league left fielder (2.5 WAR)
- Above-average major league reliever (1 WAR)
- Low-level but B- to A- catching prospect
- Longshot highly-rated A ball prospect
Maybe we can also acquire:
- 3 WAR catcher with solid defense
- Longshot highly-rated A ball pitching prospect
- Salary dump but 2 WAR left fielder
- Fringe AAA hitting prospect
- Matt Joyce
- Brandon Guyer or Kevin Kiermaier
- Jeremy Hellickson
- 2 PTBNL
C1: Salvador Perez (3.5 WAR) C2: Ryan Hanagan (0.75 WAR) 1B: James Loney (3 WAR) 2B: Ben Zobrist (5.5 WAR) 3B: Evan Longoria (5 WAR) SS: Yunel Escobar (1.5 WAR) LF: Brandon Guyer (1.5 WAR) CF: Desmond Jennings (3.5 WAR) RF: David DeJesus (2 WAR) DH: Wil Myers (3.5 WAR) Bench 1: Sean Rodriguez (1.5 WAR) Bench 2: FA (1 WAR) Bench 3: Tim Beckham (0.75 WAR) SP1: Matt Moore (4 WAR) SP2: Alex Cobb (3.5 WAR) SP3: Drew Smyly (2.75 WAR) SP4: Chris Archer (3 WAR) SP5: FA (1.5 WAR) RP1: Jake McGee (2 WAR) RP2: Brad BoxBerger (2 WAR) RP3: Trade (1.5 WAR) RP4: Beliveau (1 WAR) RP5: Kirby Yates (1 WAR) RP6: Promotion (1.5 WAR) RP7: FA (0.75 WAR)
This would add up to (in a rosy scenario) 54.75 WAR. Now consider reality. If we take a 40% discount, which is fair given fans' biases, is 33 WAR. Not gonna be enough to make the playoffs, and in fact we don't be much different.
Food For Thought