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Rays 2015 effective 25-man... no hope ??! :(

As we give up on 2014... 2015 is right around the corner! Anyone care to join with me in the fun of venturing a guess as to what the Rays 2015 25-man might look like - not necessarily opening day, but who gets the playing time over the course of the season with injuries factored in:

Here's my guess (along with WAR):

C1: Trade or FA (not in-house) 75% - long shot a Molina return @ 40

C2: Hanagan 25%

1B: James Loney

2B: Ben Zobrist

3B: Evan Longoria

SS: Yunel Escobar

LF: Trade or FA (not in-house) or David DeJesus

CF: Desmond Jennings

RF: Matt Joyce

DH: Wil Myers

Bench1: Sean Rodriguez

Bench2: Brandon Guyer

Bench3: Promotion other than current 25-man, probably Tim Beckham

SP1: Matt Moore

SP2: Alex Cobb

SP3: Drew Smyly

SP4: Chris Archer

SP5: Jeremy Hellickson

RP1: Jake McGee

RP2: Brad BoxBerger

RP3: Jake Ordorzzi

RP4: Trade or FA

RP5: Jake Beliveau

RP6: Kirby Yates

RP7: Trade or FA

In a rosy scenario, I see C getting filled by someone good in exchange for pitching (not going to happen in today's market) and perhaps an upgrade at LF in return for a Kevin Kiermaier and a top pitching prospect. If we were going super rosy, Escobar would also get traded in a mega deal that looked like the following:

Rays Send:

  • B+ to A pitching prospect
  • Jeremy Hellickson
  • Kevin Kiermaier
and get back:
  • Above-average major league left fielder (2.5 WAR)
  • Above-average major league reliever (1 WAR)
  • Low-level but B- to A- catching prospect
  • Longshot highly-rated A ball prospect
Given the recent Smyly=Price tide, confidence in GM and more importantly reality of market (hitter premium) has made it such that these look rosy.
Maybe we can also acquire:
  • 3 WAR catcher with solid defense
  • Longshot highly-rated A ball pitching prospect
  • Salary dump but 2 WAR left fielder
  • Fringe AAA hitting prospect
for
  • Matt Joyce
  • Brandon Guyer or Kevin Kiermaier
  • Jeremy Hellickson
  • 2 PTBNL
So in the rosiest world, with fairly optimistic WAR counts and approximating the replacements for each guy, we'd have
C1: Salvador Perez (3.5 WAR) C2: Ryan Hanagan (0.75 WAR) 1B: James Loney (3 WAR) 2B: Ben Zobrist (5.5 WAR) 3B: Evan Longoria (5 WAR) SS: Yunel Escobar (1.5 WAR) LF: Brandon Guyer (1.5 WAR) CF: Desmond Jennings (3.5 WAR) RF: David DeJesus (2 WAR) DH: Wil Myers (3.5 WAR) Bench 1: Sean Rodriguez (1.5 WAR) Bench 2: FA (1 WAR) Bench 3: Tim Beckham (0.75 WAR) SP1: Matt Moore (4 WAR) SP2: Alex Cobb (3.5 WAR) SP3: Drew Smyly (2.75 WAR) SP4: Chris Archer (3 WAR) SP5: FA (1.5 WAR) RP1: Jake McGee (2 WAR) RP2: Brad BoxBerger (2 WAR) RP3: Trade (1.5 WAR) RP4: Beliveau (1 WAR) RP5: Kirby Yates (1 WAR) RP6: Promotion (1.5 WAR) RP7: FA (0.75 WAR)
This would add up to (in a rosy scenario) 54.75 WAR. Now consider reality. If we take a 40% discount, which is fair given fans' biases, is 33 WAR. Not gonna be enough to make the playoffs, and in fact we don't be much different.
Food For Thought

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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