FanPost

Van Slyke to Rays

With the news of Kenley Jansen being sidelined for 8-12 weeks after having foot surgery earlier this week, the Los Angeles Dodgers have suddenly found themselves in need of more bullpen help. The Dodgers have already had a large makeover of their bullpen this offseason with the addition of Joel Peralta, Chris Hatcher, Adam Liberatore, Juan Nicasio, as well as non-roster invitees Sergio Santos and David Aardsma. The Dodgers also removed Brian Wilson, Jose Dominguez, Paul Maholom, and Scott Elbert among others. The loss of Jansen even for as little as 3 weeks could have an enormous effect on the dynamic of their bullpen. Currently high leverage innings will be going to JP Howell, Joel Peralta, Brandon League and Chris Hatcher. The Dodgers do not need to look for another closer, as Jansen will inevitably be back, but the Dodgers could definitely use another high leverage arm for the back of their bullpen.

Insert Tampa Bay Rays reliever Kevin Jepsen. Kevin Jepsen had a 10.38 K/9 last season to go along with a 2.63 ERA in 65 innings. Advanced metrics also appreciated his work as he had 2.62 SIERA, 2.78 FIP, and a 2.97 xFIP. This kind of work would be greatly appreciated in Dodgerstown and would provide the Dodgers with another quality arm to fill in for Jansen in the short term and provide a bridge from the starters to Jansen in the long term.

Of course in order to get this talent the Dodgers are going to have to give up talent. The Tampa Bay Rays should seek Dodgers OF/1B Scott Van Slyke. Scott Van Slyke is an underutilized player who has the potential to become an offensive powerhouse similar to Jayson Werth during his time with Philadelphia, and who is over looked due to a platoon split that is comparable to some of today’s stars.

When I watch Van Slyke hit he reminds me a lot of former Phillie Jayson Werth, as both their body types and swings are similar. In Werth’s career prior to the Phillies he was also an undervalued member of the Dodgers outfield. Playing half of his games in Dodgers Stadium, a notorious pitchers park, Werth put up WAR values of 2.2 and 1.2. In Werth’s 721 plate appearances as a Dodger he hit 23 home runs for an average of 1 home run for every 31.34 plate appearances. During Werth’s tenure with the Phillies he put up WAR values of 3.1, 4.9, 4.7, and 4.9. In Werth’s 2114 Plate appearances as a Phillie he hit 95 home runs for an average of 1 home run per every 22.25 plate appearances, a significant improvement from his time with the Dodgers.

In two seasons with the Dodgers Van Slyke has produced WAR values of 0.8 and 2.8 largely in a platoon and pinch hitting role. Playing half of his games at Dodger Stadium, Van Slyke has had 398 plate appearances over the past two years and has hit 18 home runs, averaging 1 home run per 22.11 plate appearances. That is roughly the same number of home runs per plate appearances as Werth had during his time in a more hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park. Van Slyke’s numbers are largely boosted by taking advantage of platoon splits. In 232 career plate appearances against lefties Van Slyke has hit 13 home runs for an average of 1 home run per every 17.84 plate appearances. However, his numbers against righties are better than one might expect, as he has had 223 plate appearances against righties and has hit 7 home runs for an average of 1 home run per 31.85 at bats. This number is also very similar to Werth’s home run per plate appearance average with the Dodgers. If Scott Van Slyke moved to a more hitter friendly environment, such as the American League East, his power numbers should improve similar to how Werth’s did. If so, Van Slyke would prove to be a very valuable offensive threat in the middle of the Rays order for years to come, as he is reasonably young (28). Furthermore, Van Slyke should come at an affordable rate as he is not arbitration eligible until the 2016 season and is under team control until 2020.

Scott Van Slyke is very undervalued in his role with the Dodgers and deserves to get more playing time. For the 2014 season, Van Slyke hit .297/.386/.524 with 11 home runs in 246 plate appearances. This means that Van Slyke led all Dodgers with a minimum of 200 plate appearances in OPS and was 5th on the team in home runs despite getting half of the plate appearances as the starters. Many people will point to Mattingly using Van Slyke’s platoon as the reason for Van Slyke’s success and will argue that he would not prove to be a good fit as an everyday player. Taking a look at Van Slyke’s splits he has hit .268/.362/.530 against lefties in 232 career plate appearances and only .254/.333/.421 against righties in 223 career plate appearances, a 137 point difference in OPS. Considering an everyday player takes roughly 70 percent of his at bats against righties and only 30 percent against lefties, I have multiplied his plate appearances against righties by .7 and lefties by .3 to get a projected slash line of .258/.342/.454 with a .796 OPS. Taking a comparison of players around the league with similar slash lines we see that Van Slyke compares well to Kyle Seager who slashed .268/.334/.454 with a .788 OPS and Josh Donaldson who hit .255/.342/.456 with a .798 OPS. Both of these players are crucial parts of their teams as they both are very productive middle of the order bats in their respective line-ups, and both posted WAR values of more than 5 for the 2014 season. Also both of these players have a significant platoon split as Josh Donaldson hits .289/.372/.581 against lefties but only .259/.336/.408 against righties, a 173 point difference in OPS. Meanwhile Kyle Seager hits a meager .238/.288/.378 against lefties but .276/.349/.458 against righties, a 141 point difference in OPS. Thus we can see that players that have a platoon split can not only be starters on their teams, but also major parts of their respective franchises success.

By trading Jepsen for Scott Van Slyke the Rays would be essentially turning one year of Matt Joyce, whom the Rays traded for Kevin Jepsen, into four years of Scott Van Slyke. This would be a good investment for the Rays as they would be gaining a player with a higher .ISO than Joyce over the past for two years, as well as a more versatile defender, while gaining 3 more years of team control. Other benefits of this trade would be providing more protection for Evan Longoria as well as adding an overall lefty masher. Adding a lefty masher provides better balance for the Rays as Jaso, Loney, and DeJesus all do not hit lefties well and all play positions that Van Slyke can play (assuming the Rays do not use Jaso as a catcher).

Looking around the AL East, there is at least one guaranteed lefty starter in each of the four other AL East teams. The Yankees have CC Sabathia, the Blue Jays have Mark Buehrle, the Orioles have Wei-yin Chen and the Red Sox have Wade Miley In fact, Van Slyke has absolutely destroyed Boston Red Sox new comer Wade Miley. In his career against Miley, Van Slyke is 7-for-16 with four home runs, three doubles and three walks, hitting .438/.526/1.375.

The Rays should jump on the chance to acquire Scott Van Slyke from the Dodgers as he is a proven lefty masher with all-star potential if given regular at bats, relatively young (28) and inexpensive, and a versatile defender that would fit in with the Rays both now and in the long term.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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