FanPost

Rays: Over/Under .500?



The Rays had a disappointing season in 2016, despite being ranked by most analyst at or above a .500 record. With spring training starting and the 2017 season coming soon, this got me thinking, are the Rays better than a .500 team this year? To look into this I designed a projection system that uses projected team WAR (from Fangraphs combination of ZiPS and STEAMER), to calculate standings for the upcoming season. Before seeing the result, let’s take a look at the Rays team for 2017.

Signings/Trades/Departures

The Rays made a few notable additions this offseason signing Colby Rasmus, Wilson Ramos, Shawn Tolleson, and Logan Morrison. They also made two significant trades dealing Drew Smyly to Seattle for three minor league prospects and Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers for Jose De Leon.

Starting Pitching

For the past few seasons, starting pitching has been a strength for the Rays as they always produce a talented young core. Despite their talent being as good as ever last year, the staff performed surprisingly below average. This year, two noticeable pieces are missing from the rotation after trading Matt Moore midseason and Smyly this offseason. Even without them though, the Rays project to have an above average rotation in 2017.

For the third year in a row Archer should get the ball on opening day. After a terrible first half last year he settled in well after the all-star break, posting numbers similar, if not better, then his career norms (3.25 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 10.2 K/9). Archer’s biggest problem in 2016 was the long ball, allowing 30 home runs while his previous career high was 19. This seems mostly due to bad luck as his fly ball % and hard hit %* went up by only about a percentage each, while his HR/FB rate, jumped about 5% over his career average. xFIP calculates a player's ERA based on a league average HR/FB rate and this placed him at 3.41 last year. Expect this to be about where his ERA should be in 2017. The only question I would have for him is where did his sinker go? In 2014 it was his most used pitch, but he never threw it in 2016. His slider is his game-changing pitch and he hasn’t lost anything on his four-seamer so maybe he thinks it isn’t needed anymore.

After Archer the rest of the rotation fills in well. Jake Odorizzi seems to have found his groove over the last two seasons and should make a solid number 2. Alex Cobb and Blake Snell expect to follow him as the number three and four starters. Snell performed well last year in his rookie season, but his 5.16 BB/9 is troublesome. He was also helped by the luck of a 5.6% HR/FB rate, but his .356 BABIP against probably averages this out. If he can keep his 9+ K/9, lower his BB rate, and pitch how he did in the minors, he is capable of being a very good middle of the rotation starter. Alex Cobb causes the biggest questions for the rotation. After pitching like an ace in 2013 and 2014, in which he went 21- 12 with a 2.80 ERA, he only pitched 22 innings over the past two seasons due Tommy John surgery and did not look like himself during that time. Many players don’t regain their form until their second season off Tommy John though and if Cobb is one of these players then he could easily slide into the number two spot in the rotation, giving the Rays a top 5 rotation in the AL.

Rounding out the rotation will most likely be a battle between Matt Andriese and the recent addition of Jose De Leon. One of the top pitching prospects last year, De Leon, struggled in his first call up to the majors. Don’t let this deter you though, his minor league numbers are impressive and his stuff speaks for itself. Andriese has a solid minor league track record as well and despite falling off towards the end of the season, pitched well in his first few starts in the majors last year. He performed much better out of the pen though with a 2.38 ERA and 0.71 WHIP compared to a 4.80 ERA, 1.33 WHIP as a starter. If De Leon impresses in spring training he will most likely take the job, with Andriese filling-in in the bullpen.

The verdict: If all goes well the Rays should have a top 10 rotation in all of baseball.

The Bullpen:

The Rays should have a slightly below average bullpen. Alex Colome was possibly the best closer in the AL behind Brittman last season, but was offered little support from his setup man Boxberger. Colome’s FIP was also a full run higher than his ERA so expect his ERA to rise closer to 3 next season, with Boxberger struggling to keep his under 4, due to an incredibly high walk rate. The recent addition of Tolleson could be a huge boom or bust for them, while the rest of the pen shouldn’t be expected to blow anyone away. If the starting pitching is as good as it could be, the bullpen should be adequate to maintain a lead.

The verdict: The Rays bullpen should be below average despite Colome being a top closer.

The Offense/Defense:

For most of the past decade the Rays were known for their defense. Last season though they finished in the middle of the pack, with 4 DRS. Their offense showed power, but fans may have some doubts going into the new season.

Evan Longoria is still proving he’s an impact bat in the middle of their lineup, but with Logan Forsythe gone he will have little support. Miller’s power was a huge asset last season, but it would be surprising to see him repeat this due to his 20% HR/fly ball rate being double those of his previous three seasons. That being said he did increase his hard contact rate from 30.3 to 35.1% as well as his pull rate from 32.9-42.5%, which could mean he changed his mechanics to try to hit more home runs. Either way the increase in hard contact % is a positive sign and should help him to hit 20 bombs with a slightly higher batting average due to bad luck last season (.277 BABIP).

Souza is another player that could provide some pop (35 HR in 251 MLB games) as well as become a solid all-around player and if he is able to put up numbers like he did in the minors (180 wRC+ in AAA). Playing besides Souza will be Kevin Kiermaier who projects to have the highest WAR (4.4) of any Ray. His offensive numbers have only been league average during his career, but he makes his impact in center where he is possibly the best defender in all of baseball.

The biggest question marks for the Rays are in Wilson Ramos and Matt Duffy. Ramos who will most likely miss the first half of the season, put up the best offensive numbers of any catcher last season and could give a much needed boost to this lineup in the second half. Duffy struggled offensively last season, but this followed up a season where he had a WAR just under 5. Expect him to even things out and have a solid season as a top defender with average offensive numbers.

The verdict: the Rays offense will most likely be below average, but could offer a surprising amount of power as Dickerson, Longoria, Miller and Rasmus are all capable of 20+ homeruns. Their defense should be above average with the likes of Kiermaier, Duffy, and Longoria.

Overall:

Their bullpen is mediocre and despite their offense having potential it most likely won’t hold up against others in their division. That being said they have some defensive gems and a solid rotation. Based on my projection system the Rays are predicted to finish with a record of 79-83. If they were in any other division I’d expect them to be an above .500 team, but given how competitive the AL East is, the Rays will most likely finish under .500.

Final Verdict: UNDER

*hard hit % measures how much authority the ball was hit with based on hang time, landing spot, and trajectory (line drive, flyball, groundball).

Team WAR projections from fangraphs can be found here: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.