DRaysBay: All Posts by Daniel Russell

Rays drop Game 3, series to Toronto in Extra Innings.

2013-05-23T00:30:16Z

Today was also Jose Molina's return from a hamstring injury. He would play inspired baseball, but that's not the focus in this loss.

Jeremy Hellickson was struggling with command - and specifically the curve - right out the gate. It was a slow start to the first inning made especially painful by a generous strikezone.

Kelly Johnson was able to make a catch and gun down an advancing Bautista at second base, but there was damage in the first: one run scored.

Hellickson got himself into trouble in the bottom of the third, fielding a 3-2 pop-up to Munenori Kawasaki that had him clipping Roberts, who was charging from third. Hellboy stepped on Roberts's back left foot and both players came away limping. Molina checked on Hellickson, and the game proceeded. No one left the dugout, and Hellboy seemed unphased.

The offense had very little support for Hellickson. The Rays started scoring after some great hustle by Molina to get on base. Ryan Roberts brought him home on a slow roller to Macier Izturis that he failed to field on an attempted barehand. The ball went right under his fingers and Molina was able to "rumble" home, as Dave Willis said.

Zobrist hit the next pitch into right and plated a runner for a 2-1 lead, but that was the last of the Rays offense for much of this game. Rodriguez led off the fourth with a double and then got himself picked off promptly on a throw from the catcher J.P. Arenciebia. He would be the last base runner for the Rays over the next 15 plate appearances.

Jose Bautista leveled the score in the bottom of the fourth on a powerful shot to left field -- his tenth longball of the year, reading a change inside perfectly. He swung in front and muscled it sky high. To be fair, this was the last hit for the Jays until the ninth inning as well, but let's not distract from the coming frustration.

The Ninth

It was another weird night for the strikezone, loose but consistent for Buehrle and strangely stringent on Hellickson.

For a taste of the nonsense, here's the zone from the full game:

Once Buehrle was removed, the zone settled in and became far more reasonable, but that didn't detract from the missed opportunities before. Especially watching seasoned hitters like Longoria, Zobrist and Johnson who were hesitant to change their approach early in the game. Buehrle was landing calls outside the zone that were normally contested, and the Rays offense just seemed unsure.

Either the strikezone back to normal or he was just ready to swing, because Longoria was comfortable reaching to pop a double off the end of the bat with one out in the ninth. The pitch was inches off the plate and Longoria pushed it up the right field line. The Rays were battling against ace reliever Casey Janssen, and James Loney put up a great performance, fouling until he found a pitch to hit and smacking a hopper up the middle to score the runner.

Luke Scott got in on the action, taking a 3-2 pitch to the wall in centerfield, but it was caught by Rasmus. The Jays let Janssen pitch through the drama and Kelly Johnson eventually took strike three looking.

Fernando Rodney, less than 22 hrs removed from a 5-out save yesterday, got the call to face the heart of Tornot'a order: Bautista, Encarnacion, and Lind.

Bautista worked a full count, in spite of Fernando throwing easy, 99 MPH heat. Forced to come back inside to get the out, Bautista hit a moon shot into the left field bullpen.

Rodney sat down E5 but walked Lind and was pulled for Peralta with the game tied , 3-3. Arencebia was lost against Peralta's fastball going down on multiple swings for the second out, and Brett Lawrie got jammed for a popup to Loney in foul territory to end the inning.

Free Baseball

Molina continued his on-base ways by hitting through the hole on the left side, but Escobar responded with a double play, and Jennings grounded out to short.

Cesar Ramos took the mound and almost got Rasmus on a swinging bunt, but he made contact and the ball rolled out of Molina's reach. Bonifacio followed suit and started showing bunt. The Rays defense responded, Boni would swing. Step back, and Jays manager Gibbons would put the bunt back on. It was a frustrating chess match that ended in a sac-bunt, moving Rasmus to second.

With one out, Kawasaki was next. He worked a long at bat as well, ending in a bouncer slow toward second. Roberts, having moved to second when the Rays lifted the DH to put Longoria at third, charged and made the difficult throw to get the out at first.

A pinch hitting Mark DeRosa was the last man standing between Ramos and the 11^th, with Rasmus now on third. DeRosa took a walk easily on 5 pitches and Maddon made the move for a righty, bringing in Kyle Farnsworth to face Jose Bautista.

Bautista, who had made it on base in all four plate appearances previously, took an 0-2 fastball outside and made it a looper into right. Jays win.

Conclusion

Hellickson went eight innings with improving control throughout the night, pitching like a professional through and through. He rebounded well from a poort start and showed strong velocity through eight innings. Too bad the Rays offense had a bad day. Sorry you couldn't get the win, Hellboy.

Rays vs Blue Jays, Take 2

2013-05-20T16:00:43Z

Since the Rays last saw the Blue Jays, Toronto has gone 4-7, taking two from Boston and clobbering two games against the Giants. The Jays scored 36 runs over those four wins before returning to their anemic ways for two games in New York.

The Rays have posted seven wins in the same time frame, including two more games than Toronto has played, and the team is riding a 9-11 win streak dating back to May 8^th and 9^th against the Jays. A rainout of Game 3 spared Toronto from a sweep and has pushed R.A. Dickey into today's starting role at Rogers Centre.

It's been a tough road for Tampa Bay; they are facing AL East opponents in 16-of-19 consecutive games this month, which began with a roller-coaster defeat at the hands of the Jays on Monday, May 6^th. Yet after a sweep of Baltimore in Camden Yards, the Rays are riding a wave of energy flying into Canada for this three-game series.

The Rays play an interesting set of times this week: today at 1:07 thanks to a regional holiday (Victoria Day!), a normal slot Tuesday at 7:07, and an early start Wednesday at 4:37. The Rays will then have a day to fly home before facing the Yankees in two-of-three day games as well - including a 4:10 start on Saturday, and the usual 1:40 for Sunday.

But that's later - here's to hoping the Rays can keep their offense together during the awkward sleep schedules. Per Fox Sports, the Blue Jays are 12th in the American League in runs per game, next-to-last in rotation ERA (ahead of the Astros), and 10th in bullpen ERA.

R.A. Dickey v Jake Odorizzi

Out of routine this week, Jake Odorizzi gets the nod in David Price's stead after a strained triceps and a bout with many allergies landed our Cy Young on the disabled list. The Odor faces R.A. Dickey, who has yet to succumb to back and neck injuries, but has suffered a 3-5 record, 4.83 ERA, and 4.81 FIP in nine games.

Dickey's biggest problem mirrors what Price was facing, with a different twist: lost velocity. Dickey isn't known for spitting fire like Price, but he does have two knuckleballs to his name. He calls them "fast" and "slow" knuckleballs, and the "fast" one has lost its edge. Two MPH, in fact.

Here's a graph Eno Sarris already put together on Dickey's velocity for the knuckler over his career:

via fangraphs.com

Because speed does not affect trajectory for the knuckleball, Dickey is still generating swings and misses with an impressive 10.2% whiffs, but he's having issues finding the strike zone like he used to, losing nearly five points on his Zone percentage (46.8% in 2013). If I may make a connection, a lack of speed seems to have led to more wary control - which is funny, considering Dickey has become one of the fastest working pitchers in baseball.

This wouldn't be such a problem if Dickey was still getting batters to swing outside the zone at last year's rates. After earning 34.5% swings with the Knuckle outside in 2012, that rate has fallen to 24.5% at a quarter of the way through the season. Making matters a bit worse, Dickey's O-contact% is up 5% on the knuckle as well. In other words, not as many batters are afraid to go after the butterfly-pitch as they were last year, and this too could be a direct result of lost velocity. A split second longer to watch the ball float is enough to take a pitcher from Cy Young to Ricky Romero in no time at all.

Still, this is R.A. Dickey. In his most recent start Dickey struck out ten San Francisco Giants, going 6.0 innings over 115 pitches. He earned 15 whiffs on the knuckle, threw 62% for strikes, and touched 79 MPH, so the Cy may still be lurking. Against Tampa Bay, that extra day of rest from yesterday's rainout in New York may come in handy.

Ramon Ortiz v Alex Cobb

Old man Ortiz will take the mound for Toronto in Game 2. The 39 year old Dominican has played three games this season, starting two and posting four strikeouts in that time. He pitched for the Tampa Yankees last season, never breaking out of Triple-A and featuring a 3.45 ERA and 4.10 FIP after converting back to starting. The Cubs had used him in relief during the 2011 season for 22 games.

Ortiz's arsenal includes a Slider, Sinker, Change and Four-seam (in that order), with an emphasis on the most former. Ortiz has improved his Slider since he was last in the majors. He's lost velocity over time, with no pitches averaging into the 90's, but the Slider benefits in movement from the lack in speed. He'll use it in most high leverage counts, and primarily against right handed hitters. Against lefties he dabbles with the Sinker instead, but only to differentiate through the at-bat. Ortiz lives and dies by the Slider, without the Justin Masterson flare (Ortiz: 3.23 HMov, 2.04 VMov, Masterson: 4.63 HMov, 0.19 VMov).

Mark Buehrle v Jeremy Hellickson

Buehrle has run in to a number of problems the last few seasons, but unique to 2013 has been walks. The southpaw has only walked 50 or more batters once since 2005, but at a career high 6.6% base on balls, he's on pace to throw offer over 60 free rides. He allowed only 40 last year in Miami.

Part of the problem may be attributed to Buehrle's release point, which had been shifting in since 2009. The Blue Jays have been pushing his arm slightly farther out this season, about an inch in total, but has resulted in lost control on the fastball.

New this season has been Buehrle's change up, which has been used for seldom, but far more often for swings and misses, especially in two-strike situations. The big lefty has an easy Four-seam at 85.5 MPH, a recently groundball inducing Cutter, a not as effective Sinker, the aforementioned Change up, and every once in a while a Curveball.

Buehrle walked three in his last appearance, a five-runs-for-six-hits performance in New York that saw the Blue Jays shut out by Hiroki Kuroda. Two of those runs scored after he left the game in the sixth after he fell apart in the frame. Buehrle pitched almost four innings without a hit, but the sixth saw a ground-rule double, a single, and the a double - and if my impression is accurate, that had a lot to do with poor fielding. In spite of failings, Buerhle, like Dickey, is returning to being effective. Time for the Rays to shut that down.

Other News

As far as lineups are concerned, it's just about the same Toronto team the Rays faced two weeks ago, except now Rajai Davis is injured too.

With Davis out of commission and their outfield kinda fielding like my little brother's little league team, the Jays have called up Anthony Gose - a hyped up, 22-year old center fielder batting .227/.341/.327 with a 12.4 BB% at Triple-A Buffalo. The corresponding move was to option RHP Mickey Storey.

Gose's promotion comes earlier than expected; his pending promotion was advertised to be a permanent solution if/when he got the call mid-season. Now he joins the ranks of Blue Jays hitters who struggle with left handed pitching.

Current CF Colbry Rasmus and sort-of-injured LF Melky Cabrera are still starting for the Jays behind R.A. Dickey, but the tides may be turning. The promotion of Gose will eventually force DH Lind or CF Rasmus out of the line up in the near future, possibly even tomorrow.

My expectation would be to see Lind traded or benched to get better defense in Center Field, shifting Rasmus to the corner.

This is a Jays team with plenty of potential. Hopefully the Rays continue their trend of dominant young pitching, impressive defense, and a pleasantly surprising second-in-baseball offense.

Go Rays!

Moore reaches seven wins; Plantain Power slams the door

2013-05-15T03:12:29Z

The day started with latin music, salsa dancing, plantains in the club house, and the creation story of Matt Moore. Those links are worth your time.

Matt Moore started the evening by nailing Jacoby Ellsbury in the shoulder, allowing a base runner and making us all smile just a little. The smiles would be short lived. Pedroia earned a double after his batted ball skipped off the third base bag, and then Moore missed his spot by well over a foot on a 1-0, 92 MPH fastball to David Ortiz. He crushed the inside-heater and I'm not sure it's landed yet.

There was no denying that Boston is a great team with a talented lineup. Entering this evening their wRC+ was 110, just above the Rays' 109, still their offense was stymied after losing two at home over the weekend, 2-8 over the last ten games. The Ortiz homerun had me fearing regression.

Moore responded in the second by K'ing Will Middlebrooks (swinging), Stephen Drew (looking), and Ryan Lavarnway (looking) on high curveballs. The shift to the breaking ball seemed to be a direct response to losing control on the fastball through the first half of the lineup.

It took Moore 30 pitches to tackle the first inning, 15 pitches in the second, then nine in the third. Meanwhile John Lackey pitched 21 to get through six Rays batters.

The Rays offense wasn't much for support in the early innings: Jose Molina notched the first hit for the Rays in the third by knocking a grounder past Pedroia. Yunel Escobar followed by driving a first-pitch mistake into the gap, and the hustling Molina was unable to stretch the well-hit opportunity farther than first base.** Joyce took an easy walk before Ben Zobrist (.386 avg, 5 walks, 5 grand slams previously on bases loaded) grounded out to end the threat. Lackey almost had Zobrist on a foul ball down the thirdbase line, but the Red Sox personnel standing in the on-field bullpen were unable to scatter and Middlebrooks was prevented from a clean play on the ball.

**Funny Story here: Desmond Jennings hit a one-hopper that bounced into a stretching Middlebrooks's glove. He made a great turn-and-throw to catch the runner at first before head umpire Joe West (who did not have a direct look at the play) ran over to single it was a line-out. He was completely wrong, but that didn't actually matter.

Moore retired twelve straight batters after his three earned runs in the first inning. By the time Napoli and Gomes returned to face Moore (fifth and sixth in the lineup), Moore had returned to his fastball, including a K of Napoli looking on a heater middle-high.

This was Moore in the first inning (30 pitches, 1 whiff):

This was Moore the rest of the game (70 pitches, 9 whiffs):

As you can see, the control was not totally there, but Moore was getting results. He also responded well by altering his pitch selection, which can be noted here: First inning vs. Rest of Game.*

*Brooks classifies Moore's curveball as a slider.

Rays Rally

Longoria started the fourth by battling a full-count and then reaching out for a solid hit on the outside corner of the strike zone for the leadoff single that had Dwayne Staats and Brian Anderson giggling. It was a nice piece of hitting. James Loney used an easy swing to rocket the ball into right field, and with runners on the corners Luke Scott looped a double to left field on a checked swing.

Two men still on, Kelly Johnson struck out on a backdoor slider that had him swinging late before Molina punished another mistake over the heart of the plate with another easy swing that plated the runners. Tie ballgame.

Escobar only needed on pitch to knock another hit into right field, and at this point you'd think the Red Sox would pull the outfield much shorter, and they kind of did. Ellsbury caught an easy fly to center field that was not very deep, but Molina and Escobar still took off running, advancing to second and third without a throw. A high pop up by Joyce toed the first base line for a very long time, and the two-out runners gunned it home. Pedroia called for no one to go for the ball after Napoli lost it in the lights, but it stayed fair - landing as the two base runners crossed home plate.

Hilarious.

Lackey, after many visits at the mound, wouldn't make it long, leaving the game in the fifth inning. Moore was finished after the sixth inning, pitching his seventh and eighth strikeout in the frame and reaching 100 pitches.

Moore wrapped up the evening with 8 K, 3 H, 2 BB, and only 3 ER, in line to be 7-0 on the season.

The Bullpen

The relief picked up right where Moore left off. Okay control, great results.

Riding two strong outings (2.0 IP, 2 K, 0 BB), Jake McGee was aiming for consistency in the seventh inning. He slowly ratcheted up to 98 MPH and a full count to Middlebrooks before the ten pitch at bat ended in a chopper to short that required Escobar to reach and run toward second base. Stephen Drew followed with a walk as Josh Lueke warmed in the pen and the control started getting ugly. Lavarnway lined out, but Ellsbury earned another walk, his third free base. McGee was lifted after 27 pitches, only 13 for strikes.

Lueke entered the game with confidence and fed Shane Victorino seven supreme breaking balls, four horizontal (splitter) and three vertical (curveball) to force a line out to Loney and end the threat. It was one, masterful plate appearance.

The dueling plantains took the mound to finish the eighth and ninth. Peralta battled Pedroia over eight well-placed pitches until a hard liner was knocked down by the pitcher and thrown to first. Ortiz flew out to Jennings, facing change ups and the shift, and Napoli struck out on "Smedium's" heater.

Rodney entered throwing 96 MPH and couldn't miss, taking Jonny Gomes down after two fastballs and a dirty change up inside to get 'em swinging. He worked a 3-2 count to Middlebrooks before earning another K on the change before finishing Stephen Drew the same way.

Three K's, each changes. It was a sight to behold.

Moore earned his seventh win, becoming the first Rays starter to begin the season 7-0 in franchise history, and I think anyone watching was ready to take Peralta's lead from this afternoon:

Well done boys. Go Rays!

Interesting Tweets

#RedSox manager John Farrell with a prophetic comment about hitting with RISP before the game:
— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) May 14, 2013

Abraham tweeted the above link in response to Ortiz's three-run jack, featuring this quote:

"The bottom line is that we continually create opportunities... If we were not giving ourselves opportunities or at-bats with runners in scoring position, to me that would be a much greater issues than having the opportunities and we just haven't cashed in."

I guess Ortiz was the only one making a deposit, amiright?

McGee goes 9 straight heaters of >=95 w/ Middlebrooks fouling 3 straight back. Pitch 10 was a 2-seamer & got a groundball out. More of that
— jasoncollette (@jasoncollette) May 15, 2013

This is hard to disagree with. After struggling so often with location, the 2-seamer/cutter was incredibly well placed. Could this be McGee's missing link in 2013?

This is the 26th straight game in which the #Rays have held a lead, a streak that includes their last 10 losses
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 15, 2013

The also lead the AL East in runs, average, and RISP since April 26th.

Sometimes I love James Loney so much that I want to cradle him in my arms like a wee baby and tell him how wonderful he is. #Rays
— Nolen Bailey (@RealNolenBailey) May 15, 2013

Hard to argue with. James Loney was 2-4 with one run on the night, and still leads the American League in batting average. Are we calling this the Magic of Kotch or just Talent?

Jose Molina came into this game with this line: .159/.213/.232He is now at: .194/.244/.278 Nearly doubling his wRC+ from 24 to 46
— Jason Hanselman (@SandyKazmir) May 15, 2013

Sandy, forgive me. It's a great point.

Jose Molina had three hits on the evening, two RBI, and one run, featuring a double that he barely legged out in the eighth. He didn't slide for the safe call, he just kinda slowed down, probably just to not injure himself (good call). Earning the safe call was awesome, and riding that momentum, I would have been okay with him stealing third.

Rodney's magical plátanos are here to stay. They're on a roll. We're looking for some good recipes.
— Joe Maddon (@RaysJoeMaddon) May 15, 2013

What is this, pinterest? Really though, the Rays are in an incredible groove, and as Rays Index notes, have already made up 5.5 games on Boston. And plantains are cooler than squirrels or something, so I'll take it.

Alright, one more:

#Rays pitching allowed just one hit after the first inning tonight. Bullpen tossed three scoreless innings without giving up a hit. #Raysway
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) May 15, 2013

Hell yeah.

Maddon brings a latin band, plantains to the Rays clubhouse

2013-05-14T19:55:52Z

Ahead of the first game against the Red Sox this evening, we've already got entertainment in the Rays clubhouse:

So @raysjoemaddon hired a Merengue band to play music in the #Rays clubhouse today: twitter.com/MLB/status/334…
— MLB (@MLB) May 14, 2013

A latin band has joined the Rays this afternoon, with plantains hanging in the clubhouse (specifically by Fernando Rodney and Joel Peralta's lockers).

"@tbtimes_rays There are 27 plantains hanging from ceiling of #Rays clubhouse in 9 bunches of 3 twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/s…" Your Tampa Bay Rays.
— Allie Kranick (@alliekranick) May 14, 2013

Plantains were the Dominican mascot of the 2013 World Baseball Classic, something Fernando had brought to the Rays in May after a rough month in April. He'd previously closed seven of eight games for the Dominican Team in March. As you can see, the guys are already getting in on the fun.

For your party planning purposes,the name of band playing in #Rays clubhouse is called Sol Caribe, based in Tampa.
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 14, 2013

We'll update with anymore interesting things as they crop up on twitter this afternoon.

For more on the Rays' upcoming series against the Red Sox, check out Yossi's series preview.

Go Rays!

UPDATE:

And now a post BP encore performance in #Rays clubhouse by Sol Caribe band. twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/s…
— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 14, 2013

The band is back in session, and Kelly Nash has her own vine to share:

Hover over the video to find the volume icon, which is defaulted on mute. It's a good sound.

Marc Topkin also tweeted that after a DJ and a latin band, David Price would like Maddon to start taking requests. His pick: the Spice Girls.

Saturday's very bad seventh inning

2013-05-13T20:00:17Z

The weekend sweep of the Padres was delightful and featured much of the top line pitching and stellar defense Rays fans have become accustomed to, except on very bad inning:

San Diego - Top of 7th	SCORE
Jeremy Hellickson pitching for Tampa Bay	SD	TB
C Quentin walked.	2	6
Y Alonso struck out swinging.	2	6
M Kotsay singled to left center, C Quentin to second.	2	6
J Gyorko struck out swinging.	2	6
A Amarista reached on infield single to third, C Quentin to third, M Kotsay to second.	2	6
J Guzman hit for J Baker.	2	6
J Guzman homered to left (383 feet), C Quentin, M Kotsay and A Amarista scored.	6	6
J Wright relieved J Hellickson.	6	6
E Cabrera safe at first on error by second baseman B Zobrist.	6	6
E Cabrera stole second.	6	6
W Venable hit by pitch.	6	6
C Headley walked, E Cabrera to third, W Venable to second.	6	6
C Quentin walked, E Cabrera scored, W Venable to third, C Headley to second.	7	6
C Ramos relieved J Wright.	7	6
Y Alonso struck out swinging.	7	6
5 Runs, 3 Hits, 1 Errors

This inning nearly cost the Rays a crucial game,one that would return the team to .500 for the first time since the first week of the season, and would inspire hopes of the post season in May once more. If not for Evan Longoria going yard in the ninth for a two run blast, a seventh inning, four run lead would have been tarnished.

Let's break down exactly what went wrong, and try to isolate who's to blame and what could have done better:

1. Quentin walked

In his first at bat, Carlos Quentin had flown out to left field after making contact on a curve ball just outside the strike zone; his next appearance in the fourth was a four pitch strikeout, featuring a foul ball and two swinging at change ups down and in (link). By the seventh inning Hellickson might've had some swagger, but Quentin would not be fooled again.

Hellickson started Quentin on a change up for his third whiff on the pitch that Saturday. Pitches 2, 6, and 9 were heaters at 90 MPH, but Hellickson had confidence in his change ups. He pitched inside with a fastball to no avail, and then missed the call on another change up on pitch three. Quentin is watching, and he's getting the timing down.

The next three change ups are down the middle, while pitches six and eight miss badly. Then a fastball at pitch nine is also fouled off. So Hellickson tried something new on Quentin, just inside -- a pitch that had fallen for strikes plenty against lefties all night. No such luck against the right handed Quentin.

Lobaton didn't set up his glove where the pitch will be so it's hard to tell if Hellboy missed his spot, but the decision to go inside was a mistake. Quentin took the walk, in spite of what looked like a close pitch at the time.

2. Kotsay singled to left center

Here's the part where I call Mark Kotsay underrated.

Last season Kotsay made 80% contact on pitches he swung at outside the zone, while swinging 30% of the time. This season he's been even more selective, but just as effective. You miss just outside, and he can punish.

Inside the zone he's not an easy guy to pitch to, either. With the limited sample size of 156 PA's last season, Kotsay was swinging pretty much all the time with an overall contact rate of 86%:

Choosing the outside edge isn't a terrible choice if you're throwing heat, which is Kotsay's biggest weakness. He can reach out and smack that ball outside the zone, but normally falters if it's blown by. Unfortunately, Hellickson does not have that stuff.

If you're not worried yet, this is Kotsay's career heat map against offspeed pitches:

A change up middle or down and away was not a brilliant decision. Hellickson tried his fastball there once and was lucky. Testing his luck twice, Kotsay made contact.

By this point Hellickson has racked up two strikouts in the inning. In spite of some interesting pitch placement in the inning, he K'd a swinging Gyorko. That was pitch 100.

3. Amarista reached on infield single to third

Here's where the baseball gods were unkind. Following a swinging strike and a foul ball, Amarista checked his swing and made contact off the bat on the third pitch. A swing he didn't even follow through.

Here's a few screenshots for context:

Hellickson placed the pitch well enough on the inside edge of the zone. If the swing misses -- or if Amarista never swings, like he wanted -- you've got the third out. Instead it was a slow dribbler through the grass toward third base more than anything, and Longo didn't stand a chance.

Longoria was playing near third base before he started the run due to the man on base at second, yet he still managed a close play.

Almost.

Bases loaded.

4. Guzman homered to left (383 feet)

Hellickson stayed in the game and fed Guzman a steady diet of six change ups, ranging between 78.5 and 80 MPH, with the final one after a 3-2 count and in the portion of the strike zone labeled down-the-freaking-middle.

In my opinion, the mistake wasn't allowing Hellboy to try and finish the inning if nothing had changed. Hellickson was a fine matchup against the .115 batting catcher John Baker, but when Jesus Guzman stepped up to the plate, there was a new decision to be made.

What would be the granslam allowed to Guzman was only pitch 110, but the series of change ups were losing velocity and it seemed like Hellickson was fighting to keep them in the zone for over 20 pitches -- as seen in pitches 6, 8, and 10 against Carlos Quentin, and when he allowed the "single" to Amarista the previous batter.

What's worse, Jamey Wright -- our resident wormburner -- was nearly warm in the pen, and Guzman has a distinct weakness against groundball specialists (career 42 wRC+ when hitting into a groundball). Hickey had made the call to the bullpen after Mark Kotsay's single.

I do not see a strong reason why he would have matched better against Guzman than Wright.

Conclusion:

Instead of facing the ninth batter in the order against the Padres, Wright had the privileged of facing the top of the order and allowed one run in his own mess (error by Zobrist, HBP, walk, walk). If the dugout had lifted Hellickson a batter early, the Rays might have escaped with no runs allowed. Instead there were five and a lost lead.

Good thing we've got Evan Longoria.

All graphs via www.brooksbaseball.net.

The most dramatic game of the season, on Monday night, against a horrible Toronto.

2013-05-07T03:01:10Z

Live blogging a game I plan to cover normally produces excellent notes to lean on for the game recap. Today, this game felt like the most important regular season game since 2011 for reasons unknown to me. In response, I'm publishing my notes in full.

The First

Hellickson got through an easy first inning, allowing a two out single to Joey Bats but unscathed.

Jennings led off the bottom of the first with a single to left-center field that Colby Rasmus lazily let fall. Buehrle then caught DJ barely leaning off of first base with a shockingly timed and controlled throw, allowing Encarnacion to supposedly tag DJ as he was in the air, hand outstretched to first. Cork Gaines begs to differ.

Johnson laced one through the right side (did I mention he was batting second?), Roberts worked a full count walk, and after a Longoria pop, James Loney faced a left handed pitcher! Rasmus caught the lazy fly this time.

No scores, move along.

The Second

Hellickson had three consecutive 3-ball counts to start the second inning, with only the third batter finding a walk. It was an aggressive strikezone from the umpire Mike Everitt this evening. I'll be a monkey's uncle if there were more than ten swings outside the zone.

In the third Hellickson found himself allowing two-out baserunners again, but Encarnacion popped out to Jose Molina on a 2-0 fastball, middle-middle, to end the threat.

The Third

In the Third inning, Sam Fuld lead off with a single. Against a southpaw. Throw your hands up, lets move on.

Jennings got on base, Johnson launched one, and the blast fell on the warning track behind a yet-again confused Rasmus. Maddon all but threw something on the field to get a review, and the umpires found no evidence of a homerun, so the play stood as far as runners advanced: Fuld scored, Jennings on second, Johnson on first. Ryan Roberts then reached on an infield hit to the pitcher, because batting Tatman in the top third of the order has been magical...

So with bases loaded, Evan Longoria did the most un-Rays thing possible against the horribly struggling Blue Jays and the nemesis Mark Buehrle: launched a grandslam (his first since 2009, the third in his career) off an easy pitch down the middle with no sink. A gift, making Longoria only the second current Rays player to hit a home run off of Buehrle (after Jose Molina in 2006). 5-0 Tampa Bay.

James Loney continued his hot streak by doubling to right field, and then Luke Scott launched a shot into the stands one out later off an easy breaking ball in the wheel house low and inside. That's three current Rays, and I'm way less bitter about that perfect game in 2009. Let the healing begin, 7-0 Tampa Bay.

The Fourth

Armed with a 7-run lead, Jeremy Hellickson picked the perfect moment to regress hard. It took 39-pitches to allow five base runners (including back-to-back two-out walks) and three runs before getting Bautista looking after a four pitch at bat that Joey didn't lift the bat off his shoulder. With two outs, he should have remembered you could drive a boat through this evening's strike zone. 7-3 Tampa Bay.

The Fifth

In what felt like an incredibly important fifth inning, the Jays went three-up-three-down, and Hellboy finished the inning strong with a 9-pitch inning, limiting the count increase to 101 through five.

Hellickson keeps the Rays' streak of consecutive GS lasting 5-plus innings to start the season alive. Now at 31.
— R.J. Anderson (@r_j_anderson) May 7, 2013

Longoria led the bottom of the fifth with a fly ball that's certainly out in Coors Field last weekend, but off the wall in left today. Loney and Sean Rodriguez flew out to right, and during the latter at-bat, the currently injured Yunel Escobar put on his hat and glove and began pacing the dugout. Scott got a similar pitch to his homerun at-bat but watched it for a called strike at 1-0, eventually finishing the fifth with a groundout. Longo seemed irked, but the frustration seemed to be pointed inward after missing a second home run.

The Sixth

With Hellickson done a bit early, you'd think the Rays would turn to Cesar Ramos or Brandon Gomes, but with Jake McGee wavering in confidence lately, Jim Hickey et al gave the fireballer the nod against the weaker part of the order. Nice try, coaching staff.

The Rays responded by going one-two-three. 7-5 Tampa Bay.

The Seventh

Here Jim Hickey said, "Well if struggling Jake McGee can't hold a 4-run lead, let's give struggling Kyle Farnsworth a 2-run lead." To face Jose Bautista.

Joey Bats singled up the middle, Encarnacion took a patient swing at a breaking pitch to lace one through the shift, and it's two on with no outs. Facing righty masher Adam Lind, Farnsworth worked low in the zone (in spite of today's wide strikezone) and after tempting Lind to go yard, got a groundball off the end of the bat to second base, where Roberts was able to field cleanly and send the ball home, catching Bautista advancing home.

One out, two men on base, and the bottom four of the lineup next in line. Hickey calls the spade a spade, notices the high leverage situation of this inning, and turns to Joel Peralta. Peralta started with Colby Rasmus and struck him out on a rising fastball, giving Rasmus 6 K's in as many tries against The Biceps. With Toronto's hopes on Maicer Izturis, Joey used a splitter for hard swings low in the zone ("playing pepper," said Brian Anderson), before finally returning to the fastball for an easy fly to center.

Oft used, but non-high leverage reliever Esmil Rodgers made his sixteenth appearance for Toronto, with the Rays bringing 2-3-4 to the plate. Johnson saw a bunch of breaking balls to the inside corner and eventually found one that didn't drop, working a single to right field. Ryan Roberts got worked by the wide strike zone for the first out, Longoria a fly to center, and Loney a tapper to the mound.

It's Monday, my heart is pounding over a Blue Jays team that was riding a 14-of-18 loss combination before this series, and it's still 7-5 Tampa Bay.

The Eighth

It's only the eighth? Escobar finally get his nod at short stop, returning from injury, and the first play is J.P. Arencebia, finally replacing the why-are-you-not-demoted Henry Blanco for Toronto, and knocked the ball off the top of Yunel's glove. Joel Peralta got the following out, but then had no mercy on the outside of the strikezone, eventually walking leadoff hitter Brett Lawrie.

One out, two men on base, and the top of the lineup next in line. Hickey calls the spade a spade, notices the high leverage situation of this inning, and turns to struggling closer Fernando Rodney.

He starts the at bat on the first base side of the pitching rubber, thankfully, and starts with a changeup to get Melky Cabrera swinging away. Confidence booster. The following pitch a double play ball makes his way to Yunel Escobar, and our definitely probably still injured short stop bobbles it.

Instead of escaping the inning on two pitches, the bases are loaded.

Bautista lines out to right fielder Sam Fuld, and one run scores and it's first and third. Rodney eventually works a bouncing and wild groundball down the thirdbase line that Longoria retreats deep in the infield dirt to find. He nabs it back handed with his left hand chest high, looking over his shoulder the whole way. Without time to plant his feet, Longoria quickly swings his arm for a dribbling throw to first, but the ball still hops in ahead of the runner.

My heart just skipped about as many times as that throw to first
— Jason Hanselman (@SandyKazmir) May 7, 2013

Agreed, Sandy.

The Rays send Escobar up to no effect, but Luke Scott drops a fly ball in shallow left field for a single. Jose Molina makes Rasmus run hard for a catch in the same place he both dropped and made a lazy catch earlier this evening for the second out. With Sam Fuld at the plate, Luke Scott attempts a steal and works a balk out of righty reliever Darren Oliver, who picked his leg up and dropped it again to pursue the Wolverine. RISP, back to Fuld, and he walks. Desmond Jennigns gets a difficult hopper to short, but the force out catches Fuld on a bang-bang play. Three outs.

Somehow, it's 7-6 Tampa Bay.

Top of the Ninth

At this point everyone high leverage in the bullpen is spent. Groundballer Jamey Wright is available, but I don't trust Yunel today. Brandon Gomes is back there, but inconsistent. Cesar Ramos?

5-6-7 in the order remains in the way of the Rays winning a strangely important win. Rodney return to attempt the five out save, something he did twice in September last season.

A full count to Adam Lind ends in a walk, again the outside of the strikezone unrelenting in this at bat. (Food for thought: At this point Brian Anderson notices Rodney's leg has been leading his pitching motion on occasion.) Colby Rasmus follows with Emilio Bonifacio now running for Lind. After being checked at first by Molina, our catcher makes a short throw to second on a steal attempt and the ball skids up and off Escobar's glove. The runner is on third with no outs, follows with a 99 MPH fastball and a changeup to strike out Rasmus swinging.

One out.

Jamey Wright is warming up as Rodney works a hot grounder directly at James Loney. Steps on first, no problem. Izturis is out.

Two out.

Arencebia is all that remains.

I can feel my heart beating in my chest. It's the regular season. #TheRaysWay
— Gareth Rees (@greesie) May 7, 2013

As Stephanie Katz said," I'm ready to barf."

Molina drops a strike, but it's not a bad situation: 2-2 to Arencebia, and oh lord... it's hit hard. No. NOOOO! It's over the left field wall! What?

...

I am undone.

Rodney four pitch walks Mark DeRosa, and he's done too. 34 pitches and almost his former self.

After multiple pitches at Lawrie's head, Wright strikes him out swinging, and I'm in a daze.

If #Rays lose this, will be the 2nd time in a week they've lost a game when scoring >6 runs. Had won previous 76 games when scoring >6
— jasoncollette (@jasoncollette) May 7, 2013

Don't jinx it for us, Cason! Bring on the heart of the lineup. Kelly Johnson, Ryan Roberts, and Evan Longoria. Tell me that three weeks ago and I really do vomit.

Bottom of the Ninth

The Blue Jays closer arrives, the same reliever who has held batters to 3-for-33. He drops Kelly Johnson looking at an outside corner fastball that goes in his favor. The next pitch is a Ryan Roberts ground out to second on the following pitch. Evan Longoria? He grounds out as well. Matt Joyce was dressed for action, but he never got the call.

Over. The most dramatic game I've seen this season. I'm still in a daze. What just happened?

Eight unanswered runs.

There's no excuses here, but let's see that strikezone:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Woof.

Is it time to mix up the bullpen? Where do you find blame?

It's time to throw on some Kenny Loggins and drown my sorrows.

Oh, and how's that attendance doing?

#Rays-#Jays attendance tonight: 9,952
— Joe Smith (@TBTimes_JSmith) May 7, 2013

GDT: Toronto descends on Tropicana Field

2013-05-06T22:00:07Z

The Rays are kicking off a 10-game home stand, starting with four games of the Blue Jays.

The Jays have lost 14 of 18 coming in to today's match up. Let's start this one off right.

Mark Buehrle (1-2, 6.43 ERA) vs Jeremy Hellickson (1-2, 4.71 ERA)

Jays vs Rays: Lawrie 5. Cabrera 7, Bautista 9, EE 3, Lind 0, Rasmus 8, Izturis 4, Blanco 2, Kawasaki 6. Buehrle 1.
— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) May 6, 2013

#Rays lineup: Jennings cf, Johnson lf, Roberts 2b, longoria 3b, loney 1b, Rodriguez ss, Scott DH, Molina c, Fuld rf, Hellickson Rhp
— Joe Smith (@TBTimes_JSmith) May 6, 2013

Trivia: Only one current Rays player has hit a home run off Mark Buehrle. Can you guess which one?

An interview with Tom Dakers, of Bluebird Banter

2013-05-06T18:00:07Z

Tom Dakers is the site manager for SB Nation's Blue Jays affiliate Bluebird Banter, and to prepare for the upcoming four game series with Toronto, Dakers and I exchanged questions on each other's teams. Enjoy!

The Blue Jays are a brand new team, that much is certain. What did you make of Alex Anthopoulos's moves (the Miami firesale and the RA Dickey acquisition)?

I loved the trade with the Marlins. It filled several holes in one move. We needed a leadoff hitter, Jose Reyes was likely the best leadoff hitter available. We needed starting pitching, and with Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison due to miss most of the season after Tommy John surgery last August, Josh Johnson was the player that GM Alex Anthopoulos wanted when he first got in touch with the Marlins, and the deal grew from there. Josh looked to fit in near the top of the rotation (of course, now he is injured). Mark Buehrle was another piece, and his value is mostly in his 200+ inning streak that now sits at 12 seasons. With the number of injuries we had, getting someone that has shown the ability to stay healthy seemed like a good thing (now he has us wondering if the AL East is the right place for a pitcher with his stuff). Emilio Bonifacio looked like a good addition to the middle infield. John Buck? Well, he was flipped quick. I thought the trade turned us into a contender.

I was a little less excited about the R.A. Dickey, I really like the prospects we gave up, Travis d'Arnaud, I think, will be an All-Star catcher one day, if he can evade the injury curse that has been hovering over him. He broke a bone in his foot already this season. Noah Syndergaard is a nice pitching prospect. But, the more I learned about R.A., the more I liked him. He has a great autobiography, if you are looking for something to read, Wherever I Wind Up. His press conferences are great fun. As one reporter said 'I leave his press conferences with a headache'. R.A. talks philosophy and uses words that sends writers looking for a dictionary. And, of course, the knuckleball is fun to watch, so he won me over.

What's your assessment of John Gibbons after the first month?

Well, that is pretty tough to judge on a terrible, terrible month of baseball, but we had Gibby before. He's a ok manager. Generally makes the moves you'd like. Hates the bunt. Is pretty good with his bullpen. Communicates well with the players. It isn't his fault we aren't winning.

How does the present and future look for Brett Lawrie?

Lawrie's had a slow start, he missed about a month playing time, after getting injured at the WBC. He is still working on his timing at the plate. When he does make contact, he seems to be hitting the ball harder than last year, I think he must have lead the lead in infield singles in 2012, he never seemed to make solid contact. I think he'll come around this year. Just needs his timing back. His glove is amazing. It seems he makes a highlight real play a game. He might be as good with the glove as your 3B.

He is still only 23, he'll be good in the long run.

Have injuries changed anything about Joey Bats?

Well, he's missing more games than he once did. No, he looks much the same as always. He has the most violent swing I've ever seen. Jose got off to a very slow start last year, and he's off to a similar, if somewhat better, start this year, but the last week or so he looks like he is coming out of it.

Your disabled list is eight players deep, which sounds a lot like the 2012 Rays... no one could stay healthy. Are the fans panicking?

Oh, we passed panic awhile back, we are on to acceptance, but that's more about the crappy play than the DL. Three of the players on the DL are leftovers from last year, pitchers recovering from Tommy John.

The biggest injury, this season, was Jose Reyes wrecking his ankle on a stolen base attempt. Reyes was about the only guy on the team that was hitting. We really need him batting leadoff and he won't be back until after the All-Star break.

Pitchers Josh Johnson and Sergio Santos are both on the DL with "triceps soreness'', something that sounds minor, but most Blue Jay injuries sound minor, to start, then later include a trip to Dr. Andrews.

Is Henry Blanco really that much better than Josh Thole?

Oh, this one I can get behind: NO.

The theory was that Thole should go to the minors, so that he could play every day and Blanco could be R.A. Dickey's caddy. Unfortunately, Blanco is one of those few major leaguers that can tell you where he was when Kennedy was shot (tiny exaggeration) and hits like a senior citizen. Blanco can smother the butterflies that R.A. throws, but Thole has caught him before too and Thole is hitting .361 in Buffalo. I'm ready to release Blanco and bring Thole up.

Can we expect infield prospect Ryan Goins any time soon?

I doubt it, unless there are a few more injuries among the middle infielders.

Anything else Rays fans should know?

This has been the worse month of baseball I can remember, we started with high hopes and now any win is a reason for celebration. No one in the lineup is hitting the way you would expect them too and the starting pitching hasn't been great either, though it seems to be coming around, slowly.

We'd love to finally win a game or two at that lovely ball park of yours.

Thanks Tom. For all things Blue Jays, go visit Bluebird Banter, and look for Ian's series preview later today.