DRaysBay: All Posts by Ian Malinowski

Rays vs. Jays, game 2: Rodney, Lobaton frame their way out of a bind

2013-05-22T02:58:03Z

The beginning of the game was highlighted by excellent play from the Rays outfield both offensively and defensively. With two outs in the bottom of the first inning, Edwin Encarnacion hit a hard line drive that landed on the left field warning track and bounced against the wall. Kelly Johnson fielded it off the wall like he had been playing outfield his whole career and fired a (one hop) strike to second base to get EE3 at second. Then, in the next half inning, Johnson blasted his eighth home run of the season to straight center field. Evan Longoria had doubled and scored after two groundouts, so Johnson's homer brought the score to 2-0.

To start the next frame Adam Lind hit a fly ball hard to deep right center. Desmond Jennings ranged back, covering a ton of ground, and then made the catch look simple even though it was at an awkward angle over his shoulder. He even managed to avoid crashing into the wall. A lesser fielder would have made that play dramatic or not made it at all, but Jennings is far too smooth for that. Then, following Johnson's lead, Jennings hit his fifth homer on the first pitch of the next half inning. Singles from Matt Joyce, Evan Longoria, and Luke Scott (with a few fielder's choices in between) stretched the lead to 4-0.

In the bottom of the fifth inning, the Jays finally got on the board when Colby Rasmus guessed right on a frontdoor sinker that caught a bit too much of the plate. Rasmus's pulled shot was the definition of a no-doubter, and a reminder of why he was once such a well regarded up-and-coming center fielder.

The sixth inning was all about Yunel Escobar and the shift. The first two outs came on groundballs more or less up the middle that Escobar fielded routinely and converted into easy outs at first. Then Jose Bautista hit a grounder deep into the hole between shortstop and third. Escobar, who was shifted slightly to pull, ranged far back to his right but muffed the backhand grab, having the ball go off the edge of his glove and into left field. It would have been a tough throw even if he had made the grab cleanly but he'd have had a better chance playing straight up. After a walk from Encarnacion raised the leverage, Adam Lind hit a hard grounder straight back over the mound that looked sure to be a hit, but the shift giveth to the Blue Jays and the shift taketh away. Escobar was already positioned near second base, and he was able to knock the ball down and throw Lind out from his knees to end the inning.

If you just looked at the box score, you might have thought that Alex Cobb didn't pitch all that well. While he only allowed three hits and two walks, he also only struck out two batters. You'd be wrong. He threw his fastball 57% of the time and didn't get a ton of whiffs (two on the fastball, three on 29 changeups, none on 17 curves), but he had Toronto baffled. They were reaching for pitches all over the zone, making weak contact and mostly hitting ground balls. Of the 20 balls in play that Cobb allowed, 15 were grounders. That's a recipe for success.

Cobb's night ended one out into the seventh inning when Brett Lawrie hit a hard grounder in Longoria's direction. Longoria made a great diving stop and threw mostly on target to first, but Loney couldn't handle the throw and it bounced past him and into the stands. With Cobb at 107 pitches and the lefty Rasmus up, Joe Maddon made the switch to Jake McGee, who promptly overpowered Rasmus (popup foul) and Mark DeRosa (strikeout swinging).

Peralta came on in his usual spot as eighth inning setup man with a difficult job to do, first facing Munenori Kawasaki, the nine hitter, before needing to run through the teeth of the Jays lineup. Kawasaki reached for a good low pitch from Peralta and plopped it into center field for a soft single. Melky Cabrera worked a seven pitch at bat, fouling off many pitches, before finally earning a walk and bringing the tying run to the plate in the form of the fearsome Jose Bautista. When Bautista hit a liner into short left field, Ben Zobrist didn't panic. He picked it up on the bounce and threw to second base, allowing the speedy Munenori to score without a challenge, but holding the baserunners to first and second.

It seemed as if Zobrist's composure would pay dividends, as Peralta (who didn't look bad this inning even while giving up walks and hits) struck out Encarnacion and coaxed an ideal double play ball from Adam Lind. Ryan Roberts bobbled the pickup however, and could never quite get a hold on the ball to record one out. With his reliever running a high pitch count and the leverage of the situation skyrocketing, Maddon went to his closer for the five out save.

Source: FanGraphs

One 98 mph fastball from Rodney produced another ground ball to second base, and this time the Rays turned one of the prettier double plays you will ever see. Roberts fielded the ball cleanly and got it to Escobar just as he touched the bag. Escobar touched second with his left foot, and then used the bag to leap high over the breakup slide from Lind. At the apex of his leap, Escobar threw strongly and accurately to first base to get J.P. Arencibia by a step.

In the ninth, Rodney struck out Brett Lawrie, gave up a ground ball double to Rasmus, and coaxed a soft grounder from Maicer Izturis (that advanced Rasmus) before a wild pitch to Kawasaki brought home the run and a fourth consecutive ball walked the speedy nine hitter.

Don't worry though. Were you worried? I wasn't worried. Rodney always had it under control. He struck out Cabrera looking on three straight outside changeups that might have been called balls on a different day.

By the rulebook definition, those sure look like balls, but take a look at the pitches in the context of a normal lefty strikezone and the rest of the game.

That doesn't look too bad. It's right on the line where umpires usually extend the strike zone, and most other pitches in that same area a couple inches off the plate had been called strikes earlier (including pitches to Rays hitters). Probably Cabrera should have been swinging. I'll take it.

Some other notes:

In the top of the sixth inning, Loney plopped a fliner into left field. Melky Cabrera got caught in between making a diving play and pulling up to play the bounce, and he ended up having to take a little hop to keep it from bouncing over his head. I said this the last time the Rays played Toronto, but Cabrera is just really funny to watch. Great athlete, but he appears very comically uncoordinated at times. Can someone start making .gifs of every little strange thing he does, please?
Fernando Rodney threw a pitch near Brett Lawrie's head (after brushing him back earlier in the at bat), sending Lawrie diving out of the way. I'm not sure if there will be any tumult over the play, but there shouldn't be. It was a changeup that got away from Rodney, not a purposeful fastball.

All pitching numbers and graphs are from Brooks Baseball.

The Unknown Slugger: Héctor Espino

2013-05-21T17:49:06Z

The Unknown Slugger: Héctor Espino

A must read if you like baseball history. Probably we should all have at least heard of Héctor Espino. I hadn't.

A Jake Odorizzi PITCHf/x scouting report

2013-05-20T14:39:27Z

This afternoon, Jake Odorizzi, one of the returns from the James Shields trade, will get his first start in a Rays uniform. Back when the trade was made, Michael gave an introduction and there are plenty of scouting reports from his time in the minors. But we don't have to rely on the scouting reports alone. Odorizzi got a cup of coffee last year with Kansas City, and that means that we have PITCHf/x data. He came in as a reliever in two games, and started two others, pitching seven and a third innings. It's not enough to draw any conclusions about Odor's tendencies or abilities, but it's plenty to get a sense of what he throws.

That's a fairly standard fastball, changeup, slider, and curve repertoire, but there are a few points of interest. The first is Odorizzi's fastball, which averages in the low 90s and can reach 95 mph. It's the fastball of a flyball pitcher, without much run, but with extremely impressive rise.

For some context, here are the career average four-seam fastballs (using Brooks Baseball classifications) for all of the 2013 Rays starters and James Shields. Click to enlarge.

What can we learn from this graph? Matt Moore's four-seamer is crazy, Roberto Hernandez's is barely a four-seam at all, and Jake Odorizzi would have either the second best or the third worst if you were judging based only on movement in one dimension (that would be silly to do). I think that's okay. Not everyone can be Matt Moore, and I like pitchers with one extreme dimension to their pitches, rather than average all-around movement. It's possible to succeed with good command of a straight but rising fastball (that's how Joel Peralta pitches).

Let's jump back to Odorizzi's PITCHf/x data from last year, and focus just on the fastball alone.

I'm not going to seriously dig into classifying Odorizzi's fastballs until there's more data to look at, but I think this graph shows the beginning of a pattern. Horizontal movement doesn't appear to affect vertical movement much at all, but the faster pitches are a bit straighter. I take that to mean one of three things: 1) Nothing whatsoever. 2) Odor actually throws both a four-seam and two-seam fastballs, and as he pitches more we'll learn to differentiate them. 3) When he tries to throw hard, he loses movement. I'd be fine with choices one or two, but choice three would be something for Odor to work on.

Back to Odorizzi's secondary pitches.

None of these pitches are very impressive. His 84 mph changeup is fairly straight, yet neither does it precisely mirror the movement of his fastball. For success with his changeup, Odorizzi will need to rely on establishing his fastball and then selling the pitch with arm speed.

Sliders are more difficult to evaluate based solely on their movement. Also at 84 mph, Odorizzi's version of the slider is closer on the spectrum to a cutter than it is to a curve, but pitchers succeed with every manner of slider. If Odorizzi can command the pitch I won't have a bad thing to say about it. In his brief major league appearance last year, he used it almost exclusively against righties.

Let's get a bit of context on Odorizzi's curve.

It's neither as much of a sweeper as Hellickson's nor does it have as much 12-6 drop as Cobb's. It most resembles the curve of the man he's seeking to replace in the Rays rotation, James Shields. You will remember that Shields's curve was never a great strikeout pitch, but he used it almost as a second fastball, something he could throw for strikes and work other pitches off of late in the game.

Overall, this is not the repertoire of a front-line starter, but no one is expecting Odorizzi to be one right now. All he needs to do is compete, and let the juggernaut that is the Tampa Bay offense do the rest of the work.

Rays vs. Orioles, game 1: Bats explode, Hellickson and bullpen keep it interesting.

2013-05-18T02:38:19Z

There are some of you who, over the past few years, have argued on this blog that previous incarnations of the Rays were unwatchable. You said that while a team may be able to win games and even make the playoffs with great pitching, great defense, and a low scoring offense, that type of team was no fun. Let me ask you now: Are you happy? Is this team fun to watch?

In the top of the first inning, Matt Joyce, batting second, reached out to poke an elevated Jason Hammel fastball just past the diving shortstop for a single. Ben Zobrist then doubled on a groundball through the first base hole that was opened up because Chris Davis was holding on Joyce. Evan Longoria took an inside out swing on another elevated fastball to knock a fly ball into right field and sacrifice in the run.

The Orioles took the lead right back in the bottom of the inning, has Jeremy Hellickson struggled to get a feel for his pitches, particularly his curve. While a struggling Hellickson usually means walks, Hellickson's curves to start out the game actually were pretty much all right down the middle, and they were hit. The Orioles got a single from Nate McLouth, a double from Manny Machado, and then a single from Chris Davis to take the lead. In the following inning, J.J. Hardy lead off with a home run to left off a 2-0 grooved fastball.

Jeremy Hellickson recovered later in the game and found the feel for his curve ball, though. Jason Hammel never did. The only pitch that consistently worked for Hammel tonight was his good slider. His curve was all over the place, rarely being close enough to the plate for Rays' hitters to have to seriously consider whether or not to swing. And his fastball and sinker, which he can usually pound the bottom of the zone with to generate ground balls, were chronically up.

If I can recognize a pattern like that from my couch, the Rays hitters should be able to do so as well, and they did. For awhile, the Rays were swinging under Hammel's high fastballs, but by the second time through the order (in the third inning) they had adjusted, and began to take the pitches that were too high to hit and to clobber the ones within their reach. Matt Joyce lead off the inning with a towering fly ball that fell on the warning track in the deepest part of the field. Ben Zobrist lined a single into right field and Evan Longoria followed it up with a single of his own that advanced Longoria to third. Loney sacrificed Zobrist home with a fly ball, but the Rays would not be limited to small ball. Scott walked (taking several pitches high), and Kelly Johnson blasted an elevated fastball onto the right field dugout for the proverbial three run homer (Was it proverbial? How is one to tell? I think that if one of the runs that scores is a slow player who walked, that makes the three run homer proverbial.).

The Rays got back to work against Hammel in the top of the fifth inning. After Evan Longoria struck out, Loney lined a single into right field, and Scott walked on four pitches. Kelly Johnson hit a well struck fly ball off the left field wall. Johnson thought he had a double all the way, and showed good hustle, but Markakis played the hard carom perfectly and threw him out at second base. Still, Hammel's day was done, and he was lifted in favor of Alex Burnett.

Burnett could do no better against the Rays bats, however. He walked Jose Lobaton on four pitches, and then gave up a hard fly to Yunel Escobar ball straight back and over Adam Jones's head that bounced over the wall for a ground rule double (preventing one run from scoring). It was a moot point, though, as Desmond Jennings singled home two runs to stretch the lead to six. The point was made even more moot when everything the Rays hit against Troy Patton in the sixth inning found holes, stretching the lead to 12-4.

From the seventh inning on, the game was just about the pitching and defense not being horribly inept, Hellickson being efficient and saving the Rays bullpen some work, and the offense grinding out at bats to tire out the Oriole's bullpen and give the Rays a possible leg up in the series. In these pursuits, Hellickson was only partially successful. He cruised until the eighth inning, and might have gotten out of it with a slightly different bounce or a less speedy Baltimore runner than Adam Jones (who was almost doubled up), but as it played, he was unable to prevent a mini-rally with two outs and Joe Maddon lifted him with three runs scored in the inning and and two men on base.

Seems like the perfect situation to help bolster Farnsy's confidence, right? Wrong. Farnsworth gave up a hard hit single to Hardy, and then an absolutely crushed home run to Chris Dickerson. After a long battle with Navarro that included wild pitches and missed locations, Farnsworth finally coaxed a very soft ground ball that Longoria didn't even have a chanced to make a play on. With no outs recorded by Farnsworth and the tying run at the plate, Maddon was forced to go to the back of his bullpen. Joel Peralta threw two balls to Nate McLouth but then got him to fly out harmlessly to left field.

Peralta came back out to pitch the ninth inning, with Fernando Rodney warming in the bullpen. He coaxed a bad swing from Machado with a low splitter for a popup, and then threw the same pitch with the same result to Markakis. With Chris Davis looming on deck, Peralta threw Adam Jones a breaking ball that looked like a strike but was called a ball. Then Jones tried to bunt for a hit down the third base line and would have had Longoria beaten if his bunt hadn't rolled foul. Eventually the count ran full before Jones hit a fastball to mid center field to end the game.

Joel Peralta is great. I don't know where we would be without him. Thank God, thank the Dominican Republic, thank whoever you want.

This game feels a lot less good than it might have.

Source: FanGraphs

Still, season's are not judged solely on good feelings. Wins matter too, so good job, Rays.

Some other notes:

In the top of the fourth inning, Ben Zobrist hit a ground ball up the third base line. Manny Machado showed very good range as he took a few steps back and toward the line to scoop it, and then fired a very long, very accurate, and very strong throw. When he eventually gets to play shortstop, he'll be a good one.
In the top of the fifth inning, Yunel Escobar took a pitch inside, dropped his bat, jerked his hand back and made a pained face like he had just been hit. He had not been hit. The umpire called it a ball, Escobar did not contend in the slightest that he had been hit with the pitch. He just picked up the bat and got back in the box. I wondered if he hurt his wrist, but he proceeded to hit a hard fly ball. It was weird.
Compare how well Markakis played Johnson's fly ball to what Matt Joyce did to a Yamaico Navarro fly ball in the fifth. Both hits were off the right field wall, and neither right fielder had a chance to make it back in time. Markakis waited 15-20 feet back from the wall and calmly caught the carom. Joyce ran at full speed toward the wall so that the carom bounced over and well past him, and Navarro jogged into a stand-up triple. That cost the Rays a run, as Navarro scored on a slowly tapped ground ball. Maybe Joyce had visions of another basket catch, but it was not his best moment.
Desmond Jennings also misplayed a ball into a triple, but his was a lot less bad of a play. He laid out for a sinking, slicing line drive after running a mile. That run also scored on a ground ball.
It wasn't all bad for the Rays defense. With a runner on first base, Longoria made a play on a hard hit ball down the foul line and showed unbelieveable hands. He gave a strong throw to second base, but Jones just barely beat out the double play. Jones's speed directly resulted in the eighth inning rally.
Farnsworth has not looked good. These might be the type of struggles that get worked out in triple-A, if at all.

Alex Torres's Changeup

2013-05-17T13:12:27Z

Alexander Torres arrived in Tampa Bay yesterday, to minimal fanfare, largely because the trumpeter had fallen asleep on his couch. That was wrong to do. Torres is exciting. He's been one of my favorite pitchers ever since he saved the Rays season in a relief appearance back in 2011. The following year, Torres lost all semblance of control, but after a good start this season in Durham he was back in the bigs as a spot reliever following David Price's trip to the disabled list.

What's so special about Torres? He's a little lefty with a low to mid 90s fastball that seems to jump out of his hand and that has very good movement. He's got a decent curve. But where he really stands out is with his mid 80s changeup. When I first saw him pitch back in 2011, my jaw dropped. Here, using numbers from Brooks Baseball, is a chart showing the movement of every Rays pitcher (and James Shields) with a notable changeup or splitter. It's from the catcher's perspective and I've flipped the sign to make the lefties (Torres, Price, and Moore) comparable. Click on the image to make it bigger.

Torres's changeup doesn't run as much as Matt Moore's, and it doesn't drop as much as Roberto Hernandez's or Alex Cobb's, but in terms of combined horizontal and vertical movement, no changeup on the Rays staff is better. You all know how crazily Rodney's change dives down and away from left handed hitters. Torres's does the same with righties, only more.

He may not be up long. Probably he'll head back to Durham within the next few days to continue working as a starter while Jake Odorizzi fills Price's spot in the rotation, but enjoy Torres while he's here, because he's showing one of the better pitches you'll see all year.

Is James Loney really this good?

2013-05-15T15:05:26Z

This story isn't exactly new to Rays fans. Andrew Friedman signs a slap-hitting first baseman who provides more value with his glove than with his bat. Said player is coming off a bad year. Said player bats over .300.

Casey Kotchman's dream performance continued for most of 2011, before he came crashing back to normalcy the following season in Cleveland. Kotchman's regression was very predictable, and the most surprising aspect of the whole affair was that it took so long. The reason it was so predictable was that Kotchman's "improvement" was almost entirely due to an increase in BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which is widely known to be untrustworthy when looking at only a single season's sample size. What's more, there was very little difference in Kotchman's approach to signal that he had changed as a batter. His batted ball profile was the same, his [lack of] power was the same.

So the salient question for Rays fans right now has to be, "Is James Loney any different than Casey Kotchman?"

Probably not. He's hitting .381/.431/.566, with a BABIP of .408. That's nothing close to sustainable. There are, however, a few reasons to remain hopeful. First off, Loney has been a better hitter (slightly above league average, 105 wRC+) more often than Kotchman. His starting point for a breakout was always higher. Secondly, Loney has improved in areas other than BABIP.

Loney is hitting fewer ground balls (33.7% in 2013 as compared to a career 42.9%), and instead hitting more line drives (34.7% compared to 23.0%). Correspondingly, Loney is hitting for more power. He's currently sporting his highest ISO (.186) since 2007. Now at 124 PAs, it's still too early to put much faith in that ISO, but that'll start to come soon (Russell Carleton found that ISO stabilizes at around 160 PAs). Also, Loney (who's always been good at making contact), has been even better so far this season on pitches outside of the zone (86.4% O-Contact% compared to a career rate of 76.9%). It's still early for O-Contact%, but that's something else to watch for Loney as the season progresses.

When I'm looking for a change in approach, I always go to Jeff Zimmerman's Baseball Heat Maps.

Here are Loney's swing% graphs for 2013 as compared to the previous two years. Hotter colors mean that Loney is swinging at a pitch in that location more often, cooler that he's swinging at a pitch in that location less often.

Versus left handed hitters:

via www.baseballheatmaps.com

Versus right handed hitters:

via www.baseballheatmaps.com

I don't see any change in approach there. Here's a graph of his results on swings in 2013 compared to in 2011-2012 (against pitchers of both handedness). A hot color means he's hitting the ball harder in that location.

via www.baseballheatmaps.com

Well that's something. On the pitches that Loney should be hitting hard, he's hitting them harder than he has previously. I wondered if his spray chart has changed at all. Maybe he's hitting the ball harder because he's pulling it more?

The below chart shows Loney's angle of hits off fastballs for 2011 (a pretty decent year for Loney), 2012 (a bad year), and 2013 (this year). Positive angles are pulled balles, zero is up the middle, negative numbers are hits taken the other way.

via www.baseballheatmaps.com

I don't think this is a huge shift. Loney uses the whole field, and always has. But it is somewhat comforting to see him closer to his spray chart from when he's previously had success.

What exactly am I trying to say here? No, you should not believe in James Loney's great .408 BABIP, but there are a few hopeful initial signs for him. Watch his ISO, his batted ball profile, and his O-Contact% going forward, and start to feel good about the fact that it looks like the Rays are getting the good Loney (somewhat above average offense, great defense), and that 2012 was the outlier.

All statistics are from FanGraphs.

Is Evan Longoria really this good?

2013-05-13T14:59:27Z

That question feels strange to type. It's not like Evan Longoria is catching anyone by surprise. His impressive combination of power and contact (good contact% for his high level of power), and his gold glove defense make him an enticing preseason MVP candidate every year. And yet so far this season, Longoria is outproducing all but the most hopeful of expectations. His slash line through 155 plate appearances is .333/.400/.609, good for a .429 wOBA and a 179 wRC+ (fifth best in the majors amongst "qualified batters" per FanGraphs). Longoria's career wRC+ is only (ha!) 138.

Let me get this out of the way right off the bat. The answer is "no, Longoria is not as good as he's looked to start the season." This is a hot streak. All players have them, but if they come at the beginning of the year when there are no other stats to disguise them, we fans notice. Still, there are some intriguing aspects to Longoria's offensive numbers that I think it's worth examining more closely.

First let's talk about sample size. There are two sets of numbers detailing when sample sizes become reliable. Pizza Cutter's study came out a long time ago, and more recently, Russell Carleton (nudge nudge, wink wink) updated the older study with somewhat different methodology. These two studies tell how many plate appearances you need to see before you can start to suppose that observed statistical changes reflect true talent. The number that they give for each stat is the halfway point, where half of the what you see is real, and half is statistical noise.

Note: Someone always says this, so I'll head them off at the pass. Yes, this is an artificial way of looking at stabilization. It would be better to simply regress by the appropriate amounts rather than to look for a point where you can "believe" stats. But do you instantly regress all numbers you see? Because I don't.

Taking a look at Longoria's season to date, there are a few numbers that stand out as immediately discardable:

Longoria currently has a .374 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). His career rate is .306. This stabilizes at well over a season's worth of data. Not real.
Current average: .333. Career average .279. Average also stabilizes at over a season's worth of data.
Walk rate and strikeout rate have stabilized by now, but his strikeout rate is nearly identical to his career rate, and his walk rate is a point below his career rate. No improvement there.
Same deal for HR/FB. Might be stable now, but no improvement.

There is an interesting discrepancy between the two studies, which might matter for Longoria. Pizza cutter found that isolated power stabilized at 550 PAs. But Carleton saw it stabilize at 160 AB. We're not quite to 160 ABs for Evan yet, but we're close (141). If Carleton is right and Pizza Cutter is wrong, it's safe to assume that at least some of Longoria's observed ISO is real, and that would be a good thing for Rays fans. Longoria's career ISO is a very healthy .242, but he's currently ISOing .277 (11th in baseball [among "qualifieds"]).

Any type of improvement is easier to believe when one can point to a change in approach, and that's easy to find with Longoria. Using BIS numbers (PITCHf/x numbers tell a similar story but slightly muted, and a discussion of the difference between them is well beyond my scope here), here are Longoria's Swing% stats. Swing% stabilizes at 50 PAs. I'm not sure how that changes when you break it into zone, but I imagine it's safe to look at now.

Stat	2013	Career
O-Swing%	19.7	26.0
Z-Swing$	62.7	64.2
Swing%	39.4	44.0

Longoria is swinging at fewer pitches overall, but it's not that he's gotten passive. The decrease in Swing-% is almost entirely accounted for by taking pitches outside of the zone. That's great news, and an area where there was room for improvement, as plate discipline has never been Longoria's strong suit. What's more, when Longo does reach for a pitch outside the zone, he's hitting it more often. His O-Contact% is now 69.7% compared with a career 60.6%.

Jason Hanselman (now at Dock of the Rays) observed several years ago that in counts when Longoria made a point of swinging at balls, he was usually pretty good at making contact. This just backs that up even more. Longoria has a better command of the strike zone. He's being fooled less, and when he goes after an outside pitch, it's with a purpose.

Is Longoria really this good? No, not quite. He won't continue this level of hitting. But there's plenty of reason to believe that he really has improved on his already exceptional game. Injury is the only thing likely to stop Longo from being the true franchise player the Rays need.

Rays vs. Jays, game 4: Price outlasts Dickey, Scott walks off in extras

2013-05-10T02:48:22Z

Sometimes a game starts off with an obvious story line. Tonight was a game like that, yet by the end, the story line seemed like a mostly forgotten side show in what became simply an excellent baseball game.

This was a matchup of the two reigning Cy Young award winners, both of whom have struggled a bit to start the season, and both of them with some questions to answer. With all the talk this week being about David Price and his fastball, whether he's using it enough and whether he's lost effectiveness because his lower velocity, it's a natural place to focus. Price put any worries about his fastball to rest. He threw 117 pitches, with 50 of them being fastballs (not counting cutters, which he threw 27 of). His four seamer averaged 95 mph and his two seamer averaged a bit above 94 mph. He got seven whiffs out of these fastballs, many for strikeouts. Overall, Price pitched for eight innings while giving up four runs (only two earned). He struck out eight batters while allowing seven hits and one walk. Price's curve took a definite back seat to his changeup, but I don't necessarily think that will be a pattern going forward, as Price altered his mix all through last year depending on the opponent and on how he felt that day.

R.A. Dickey was less impressive. There were times that his knuckleball darted around crazily and the Rays looked baffled, but there were other times that the Rays batters tagged him up pretty well, and he was wild. Dickey lasted only six innings and gave up five hits while striking out five and also walking five. Here's how the game went.

In the bottom of the first inning, Kelly Johnson pulled a line drive into the corner for a double. After Ben Zobrist struck out swinging, R.A. Dickey made Evan Longoria look absolutely silly for a few pitches before Longoria connected with one for a fly ball over Colby Rasmus's head in center to score Johnson. James Loney walked, and then Matt Joyce pulled a groundball into right field. Jose Bautista charged it well but Longoria was coming home all the way. Bautista's throw was a bit up the third base line, and Longoria leaped over the catcher's swipe tag. Probably, he was touched on the back leg, but the umpire couldn't see it and the run counted.

The Jays got on the board in the next inning when David Price hit the leadoff batter, Edwin Encarnacion, Encarnacion advanced to second on a grounder, and Brett Lawrie grounded a single up the middle and into center for the RBI.

With one out in the top of the third inning, Rajai Davis hit a chopper to third base, and Longoria's rushed throw was too high, pulling James Loney off the bag. Davis advanced to second on a groundout (would have been a double play but he was running). That brought up Jose Bautista with two outs. Price's first pitch was a low changeup for a called strike. He followed it up with a low backdoor cutter for another called strike. His third pitch was a 94 mph fastball, also down but over the plate, that Bautista stroked into left field for a game tying double. Price then shattered Edwin Encarnacion's bat with an inside fastball, but the ball blooped into short right field just out of the reach of Zobrist, giving the Blue Jays a 3-2 lead.

With one out in the bottom of the third, Ben Zobrist hit a flyball straight back and over Rasmus's head, and hustled for a triple. Longoria hit a very hard liner to third base but Brett Lawrie made a good reaction grab. Still, Zobrist would score when one of Dickey's knucklers darted up and in to Loney, and Henry Blanco could not corral it (ruled a hard-luck passed ball). The knuckle ball giveth and the knuckle ball taketh away.

In the top of the fourth inning, Price got into trouble again. After striking out Lawrie, Price walked Rasmus. Izturis flipped a changeup down the right field line to put runners at the corners with one out. Henry Blanco foul tipped a ball straight into the inside of Jose Molina's knee. Molina collapsed in obvious pain, and was attended to for a minute or so before deciding that he could continue to catch. It was a good thing he did. With Izturis heading for second, Price struck out Blanco on a high fastball. Molina rose before the fastball even arrived and caught it standing up, throwing Izturis out to end the inning. Often it doesn't show, but Jose Molina is a pretty good athlete and an impressive catch and throw defensive catcher.

In the top of the fifth inning, Rajai Davis hit a bloop just beyond second base, and then promptly stole second and third on back to back pitches. Price struck out Melky Cabrera, but Jose Bautista hit a fly ball to center to sacrifice Davis home and retake the lead.

To lead off the seventh inning, Henry Blanco lined a low fastball back up the middle for a single. Davis lined hard down the third base line, but Longoria made a good leaping grab. Longoria would make another good play to end the inning when he retreated on a chopper and then threw out the runner at second base.

The Rays lifted R.A. Dickey after six innings, and sent in Steve Delabar to start the seventh. Yunel Escobar lead off the inning by tagging the hard throwing righty for a game-tying home run to straight center field.

Even though Brandon Gomes had been warming up in the seventh, Joe Maddon left Price in to pitch the eighth. I didn't like the move, and Encarnacion hit a scary fly ball to the warning track in the first at bat, but Price was able to strikeout Mark DeRosa swinging on a low changeup and Matt Joyce tracked down Lawrie's fliner in the alley to end Price's night with equal parts stile and luck/good fielding.

Evan Longoria lead off the ninth inning with a single up the middle, and John Gibbons pulled Delabar for the lefty Darren Oliver (facing James Loney). Maddon took the bat out of Loney's hands, calling for the sacrafice bunt to get Longo to second, and then pinch hitting Ryan Roberts for Joyce. Roberts smacked liners foul to both sides before flying out into left field. Luke Scott was allowed to hit, and he singled on a grounder into left, but Bautista's strong accurate arm gunned down Longoria at the plate to end the inning.

Having read my piece on bullpen management earlier in the day, Maddon sent Fernando Rodney out to pitch in the tie game. Rodney made short work of Rasmus, Izturis, but hit J.P. Arencibia on the hand, and gave up a single to Rajai Davis, but then blew away Melky Cabrera with a a couple 100 mph fastballs. The Rays would go easily in the bottom of the inning to send the game into extras.

Maddon, not having read my piece on bullpen management earlier in the day, gave the bottom of the tenth inning to Kyle Farnsworth. Of course he was right, apparently. Farnsworth coaxed a soft grounder off the end of the bat from Bautista and a popup from Encarnacion, and then made a great play to rush in and barehand a Kawasaki Munenori bunt to end the inning.

Aaron Loup took over for Toronto in the bottom of the tenth, throwing with a loupy left-handed sidearm motion that coaxed a chopper from the lefty Johnson. Zobrist gave the ball a ride, but got just a bit too far underneath it. Longoria doubled into the alley to bring the winning run to the plate in the form of Loney, whom Gibbons gave an intentional walk to set up a Ryan Roberts-Brad Lincoln matchup. Roberts coaxed a walk to bring Luke Scott to the plate with the bases loaded.

Scott quickly went down 0-2, but then fouled off a pitch, took three straight balls (one of which Arrencibia made a great pick on to avoid a wild pitch), and then checked his swing to take ball four and walk in the winning walkoff run.

Some other notes:

In the second inning, Longoria made a fantastic defensive play, laying out to his left and batting a grounder down, corralling it as he popped back up and got his feat set, and throwing to first in time.
There were two plays where fly balls got over Colby Rasmus's head. One of them (Zobrist's triple) really didn't seem like it should have. Blue Jays fans, does Rasmus always play that shallow? Should he?
In the sixth inning, Blanco dropped a fly popup near the railing. The most interesting thing about the play is that it was right in front of Rays season ticket holder Dick Vitale. Vitale did not make a play on the ball (he was on his cell phone, so he can maybe be excused).
It was a weird day for James Loney. The major league AVG leader came to the plate in the eighth inning with the winning run on first and no outs, and was asked to bunt. I happen to think that was a fine call. Then in the tenth, he came to the plate with the winning run on second base, and was intentionally walked. The opposing manager treated him like an all-star. His manager used him like a platoon bat. Weird day.