DRaysBay: All Posts by Michael Valancius

Rays Fall to Red Sox 5-1 In First Game of Double Header

2013-06-19T00:01:56Z

In 30.2 innings on the year, he had a 5.58 ERA. His FIP was only worse at 6.87. He struck out a mediocre amount of batters (6.46 per nine) while walking far too many (5.58/9). He featured a very average groundball rate (45%) and surrendered far too many home runs. In only two starts had he survived six innings, and he had allowed one run or less in only two starts as well. While his fastball has solid velocity, it doesn't have a ton of movement and is hurled with little command. A writer for SB Nation's Red Sox blog said he "throws hard, mostly straight, and is certifiably insane."

This is the same pitcher as the one who has, for two straight starts, baffled Rays' hitters. Alfredo Aceves may not have pitched a no-hitter in either of his starts, but in 11 innings against the Rays this year, he has held them to two runs off of seven hits (and seven walks). Alfredo Aceves is the very definition of a back of the rotation starter, yet for two straight starts, he has breezed through what was once a very potent Rays' offense.

After all the excitement and rejoicing over the promotion of Wil Myers, this game served as a harsh reminder that right now the Rays are not playing quality baseball. Losers of seven of their past nine, the Rays cannot find any type of rhythm. Their offense, which was stellar in the early goings of the seasons, is in a slump. The starting pitching has only continued upon a season trend of short starts and little success. Only the bullpen is in strong form at this moment, but a dominant bullpen isn't very useful in non-competitive games.

The Red Sox struck early as they have been wont to do this year. After the Rays quickly went three up and three down in the top of the first inning, Jacoby Ellsbury took a high fastball off the Green Monster for a double. A Shane Victorino fly-ball advanced Ellsbury to third, and then Dustin Pedroia hit a deep sacrifice fly to score the runner.

In the top of the second inning, the Rays promptly responded with a run of their own. A wild Alfredo Aceves walked Evan Longoria and James Loney. Wil Myers, stepping up to the plate for the first time in his major league career, eagerly swung at the first pitch, a fastball off the outer edge, and hit a pop fly to center. Luke Scott, ahead in the count, doubled to right field to score a run. After Molina drew a walk (!), Yunel Escobar grounded into a double play to end the threat.

Chris Archer struggled with his command in the second inning, issuing three walks but escaping unharmed thanks to a timely double play ball. In the third inning, he allowed back to back singles to Ellsbury and Victorino with no one out. David Ortiz then took advantage of a toned down shift, hitting a grounder into the hole in right field to score both runners (Victorino had stolen second base). An amped up Chris Archer settled down a little, retiring the next six batters in a row.

While the Rays' offense was going down quietly, the Red Sox refused to let Archer find a lengthy groove, taking advantage of a throwing error by James Loney in the fifth to put a runner on. The play seemed to knock Archer out of his rhythm as he proceeded to allow a walk and a single, which scored a run. Following a strikeout of Mike Napoli, Archer walked Daniel Nava, loading the bases. Maddon emerged from the dugout to bring in Josh Lueke, but the heavens opened and the game was delayed.

Nearly three hours later, Josh Lueke returned to the mound with the bases loaded. After falling behind 2-0, he challenged Jarrod Saltalamacchia with three straight fastballs to strike him out. In the bottom of the sixth inning, the Red Sox would get to Lueke with two outs. Ellsbury and Victorino hit consecutive triples to right field, scoring a run in the process. The score was now 5-1, with Boston in the lead. It should be noted that Myers looked rather sluggish, mishandled the ball, and made a weak throw. Given the rather positive reports about his defense, hopefully this can be coughed up to nerves.

The Rays best threat to score again came in the top of the eighth inning. Matt Joyce led the inning off with a double, advancing to third base on a ground out by Desmond Jennings. Ben Zobrist drew a walk on a nine pitch at bat, but Evan Longoria popped out. With runners on the corners, James Loney battled for nine pitches before whiffing on a slider for the swinging strikeout.

For those who hoped for a great debut for top prospect Wil Myers, the first game was a disappointment. He went 0-4 on the afternoon, hitting two pop flies, a lazy flyball to right field, and striking out against Andrew Miller. Hopefully he settles in during the second game tonight.

The Rays resume action tonight at 8:05 P.M.

Down On The Farm: June 16

2013-06-16T11:00:06Z

Triple-A Durham Bulls (43-26)

Behind the bat of Wil Myers and a strong pitching performance, the Durham Bulls defeated the Indianapolis Indians by the score of 4-2. Wil Myers, after last night's rare quiet performance, rebounded in fine fashion, going 3-4 with home run #14. Vince Belnome also contributed three hits. After Matt Buschmann failed to make it out of the sixth inning while allowing two runs, the bullpen stepped up and held the Indians scoreless.

Double-A Montgomery Biscuits (35-33)

Thanks to some clutch hitting, the Montgomery Biscuits narrowly edged out the Jacksonville Suns 7-6 on Saturday night. The Biscuits only reached base eleven times, with only two extra base hits, yet scored seven runs. The Sun's sloppy defense also contributed to the Biscuit's run total as they committed four errors on the night. It was a tough start for the Biscuit's Mike Colla as he allowed six runs in 5.1 innings. However, three relievers combined to hold the Suns scoreless the rest of the way.

Advanced Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs

Saturday night featured the Florida State League All-Star game, and three Stone Crab players saw action. Richie Shaffer, the starting third baseman, went 1-2 with a walk and a run batted in. Curt Casali entered the game as a pinch hitter, going 1-3 with a strikeout as the catcher. On the pitching side, Ryan Carpenter pitched a scoreless sixth inning.

Class-A Bowling Green Hot Rods (37-30)

Jeff Ames re-found his form in the Hot Rod's 5-1 victory over Lansing. Ames went five scoreless, hitless innings while Ryan Garton and Matt Ramsey pitched the final four. Andrew Toles returned to the lineup and went 2-5. Justin O'Conner went 2-3 with a walk.

CLICK HERE FOR ALL BOX SCORES

Star of the Day: Wil Myer's kept pace with Matt Joyce for the organizational home run lead.

Goat of the Day: An organizational sweep renders this category useless.

Today's Games:

Durham v. Indianapolis 5:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
Martin (8-3, 2.92) v. McDonald (1-1, 7.45)

Montgomery @ Jacksonville 3:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
TBA v. TBA

Charlotte is at the All-Star break

Bowling Green @ Lansing 2:05 PM
Guerrieri (4-2, 2.76) v. Gonzalez (2-5, 5.40)

DRaysBay Top 50 Prospect Stat Lines:

Wil Myers: 3-4, HR, K
Tim Beckham: 1-4, 2 Ks
Brandon Guyer: 1-4
Cole Figueroa: 0-2
Mikie Mahtook: 0-4
Todd Glaesmann: 0-4, K
Andrew Toles: 2-5, K
Patrick Leonard: 1-4, 2B, 2 Ks
Brandon Martin: 1-3, BB, K
Jeff Ames: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, BB, 2 Ks

Down On The Farm: June 15

2013-06-15T11:00:07Z

Triple-A Durham Bulls (42-26)

The Bulls rallied to send the game into extra innings but ultimately fell to the Indians Friday night by the score of 6-4. Indianapolis collected 13 hits, including three home runs, off of the Bull's pitching. Merrill Kelly struck out 10 batters in his 5.1 innings but allowed four runs. Steve Geltz was tagged with the loss after allowing the final two runs in the tenth inning. Vince Belnome continues to lead the Bull's offense by collecting two hits, one of them a triple. Meanwhile, it was a quite night for Wil Myers, who went 0-5.

Double-A Montgomery Biscuits (34-33)

6-2 was the score of the Biscuits defeat on Friday as they continue to hover around the .500 mark. Mikie Mahtook and Todd Glaesmann both went 2-4 with two doubles; Kevin Kiermaier also had two hits. The Biscuit's pitching allowed three home runs on the night. Victor Mateo was tagged for four runs in his four innings while Braulio Lara and Marquis Fleming surrendered a run apiece in relief.

Class-A Bowling Green Hot Rods (36-30)

Bowling Green was shut down by top prospect Roberto Osuna in their 3-1 loss to Lansing. Osuna went six innings, allowing a sole unearned run on four hits and a walk while fanning six. Sean Bierman, the starter for the Hot Rods, went six innings, allowing three runs. Reinaldo Lopez pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen. Marty Gantt and Leonardo Reginatto combined to collect four out of the five hits for the Hot Rods.

CLICK HERE FOR ALL BOX SCORES

Star of the Day: No starts when the organization is swept.

Goat of the Day: Merrill Kelly struggled in his start.

Today's Games:

Durham v. Indianapolis 7:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
Buschmann (1-0, 2.25) v. Johnson (5-3, 3.23)

Montgomery @ Jacksonville 7:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
TBA v. TBA

Charlotte is at the All-Star break

Bowling Green @ Lansing 7:05 PM
Ames (5-1, 2.70) v. Avendano (4-4, 4.65)

DraysBay Top 50 Prospects Stat Lines:

Tim Beckham: 1-3, 2 BB, 2 Ks
Wil Myers: 0-5, K
Cole Figueroa: 1-5, K
Mikie Mahtook: 2-4, 2 2B, K
Todd Glaesmann: 2-4, 2 2B, 2 Ks
Tyler Goeddel: 1-4, 2B
Patrick Leonard: 0-3, 2 Ks

2013 Rays Draft Recap: The Pitchers

2013-06-12T15:30:03Z

Following the pattern of their recent drafts, the Rays preferred positional players early; only one of the Rays first six picks plays on the mound. However, the Rays still added some quality pitchers to their system, who are recapped below.

Round 1, #29 overall: Ryan Stanek, RHP from Arkansas (21 Y.O., 6'4, 190 lbs.)

Baseball America Report $ (#13 overall)
ESPN Report $ (#13 overall)
Baseball Prospectus Report $ (#7 overall)

Analysis: When the Rays stepped up to the plate with the 21st pick and Stanek was still on the board, many hoped the Rays would choose him. Instead, they opted for Nick Ciuffo. It turns out that the Rays still managed to get the sliding pitcher as he went to the Rays at the 29th pick. Reasons for his slide are unclear at this point, which is a good thing. Stanek has two plus to plus-plus pitches, a 92-98 mph fastball with heavy sink and a mid-80s slider, that make him one of the best college arms in the draft. His change-up has improved to the point where it projects as average in the future. Keith Law also has him throwing a plus curveball, though none of the other reports are as optimistic about the pitch. Law's report also states that the slider and the curveball tend to run into each other.

Stanek's main problem, and the reason he could not get as many strikeouts as expected in college, is that he lacks pitchability. In his report, Keith Law says that Stanek needs to learn to pitch off of his fastball as well as prioritize his curve. Stanek needs a few tweaks to become a number two starter, but the Rays have shown the patience and ability to turn a raw power arm into a refined pitcher.

Baseball America Excerpt: "A tweak here or there could unlock Stanek's frontline potential, but other scouts see him as a future closer or set-up man in the Daniel Bard mold."

Round 6, #188 overall: Stephen Woods, RHP from Half Hollows Hill East High School, N.Y. (17 Y.O., 6'2, 200 lbs.)

Analysis: There is not much information available about Woods. What little there is indicates that his fastball is in the high 80s to low 90s, touching 93 mph at its peak. Baseball America noted that his fastball is straight. He also throws a curveball and a change-up, with the curve flashing some potential. Jonathan Mayo commented that Woods lacks projection, though with the aggressive selection, the Rays may think differently. He did not make Baseball America's Top 500, but was rated the 16th best draft prospect in New York.

Round 8, #248 overall: Roel Ramirez, RHP from United South High School, Texas (18 Y.O., 6'1, 205 lbs.)

Analysis: A "helium" player, Ramirez has seen his draft stock shoot up recently, a result of significant progress and development this spring. His best pitch is his 88-92 mph fastball that he throws with minimal effort. His curveball is his best secondary pitch, and he also throws a change-up and a slider. Ramirez is considered a good athlete with a quick arm, hints that he may add velocity.

Round 9, #278 overall: Austin Pruitt, RHP from U of Houston, Texas (23 Y.O., 5'11, 180 lbs.)

Analysis: A fifth year senior, Austin Pruitt is an undersized right handed pitcher who throws in the high 80s. A very successful pitcher in college, Pruitt commands his spike curveball, graded his best pitch, very well. He did not make Baseball America's Top 500.

Round 10, #308 overall: Aaron Griffin, RHP from Loyola Marymount, California (21 Y.O., 6'4, 190 lbs)

Analysis: The young brother of Oakland Athletic's pitcher AJ Griffin, Aaron lacks an above average pitch but receives high grades for his pitchability. He throws a fastball at 88-91, a slurve, an average change-up, and a cutter. He did not make Baseball America's Top 500.

Round 13, #398 overall: Ben Griset, LHP, from St. Mary's, California (21 Y.O., 6'0, 190 lbs.)

Described by John Sickel's as a strike thrower, Griset is more of an organizational player than a true prospect. Still, in the later rounds, players like Griset can help shore up the rotations and provide minor league depth. His fastball works in the high 80s, and he throws mixes in a solid curveball and a change-up.

Round 14, #428 overall: Jamie Schultz, RHP from High Point, North Carolina (21 Y.O., 5'10, 190 lbs.)

A Tommy John "survivor," Schultz hurls a hard fastball that sits in the 92-93 range and touches 96-97. His slider and curveball are both considered good power pitches. He worked both as a starter and a reliever this season, with high walk totals a serious issue. One has to wonder whether there is much hope for improvement in command given his size and high-effort delivery.

Round 16, #488 overall: Darren Fischer, LHP from Central Florida CC (20 Y.O., 6'2, 185 lbs.)

A potential draftee last year, it is ironic that Fischer was not drafted after 2012's great season but was instead taken after this year's much weaker season. He missed playing time this spring with injuries and a school suspension due to academic issues. In his 20 innings, he walked 10 with a 5.75 ERA. An athletic pitcher, Fischer can get his fastball up to 90-91 mph.

Round 19, #578 overall: Josh Kimborowicz, RHP from Everett CC (21 Y.O, 6'3, 220 lbs.)

There is little information available on Kimborowicz, but he did have an outstanding year with the Trojans, posting a 1.58 ERA in 34 innings. Look for him to be assigned to either the GCL Rays or Princeton if he signs.

Round 20, #608 overall: Harmen Sidhu, RHP from Sonoma State, California (22 Y.O., 6'1, 185 lbs.)

A transfer from Oregon State, Sidhu's baseball career has taken a turn for the better with Sonoma State. Described as a hard thrower, Sidhu pitched to a 0.98 ERA in 82.2 innings with 93 strikeouts.

Round 21, #638 overall: John Farrell, RHP from College of William and Mary, Virginia (22 Y.O., 6'0, 210 lbs.)

One of two William and Mary players selected in the 2013 draft, Farrell led the CAA with 116.2 innings pitched. His ERA was 2.70 as he went 11-3 on the year. He previously pitched in the bullpen, though his preference is to start.

Round 22, #668 overall: Andrew Hanse, RHP from Iowa, Iowa (22 Y.O., 6'7, 210 lbs.)

A senior for the Iowa Hawkeyes, Hanse did not pitch well in 2013, going 3-4 in 46 innings with a 4.30 ERA and a 32/17 K/BB rate. Though reports on Hanse are hard to come by, the Rays probably saw something in his massive 6'7 frame. Perfect Game has him topping out at 88 mph in their events.

Round 23, #698 overall: Richard Teasley, LHP from St. Leo University, Florida (22 Y.O., 6'2, 210 lbs.)

A local pitcher from St Leo University, Teasley was the workhorse of the team's staff, throwing 86.2 innings in the 2013 season with a 3.63 ERA. Like many of the other players in this range, there are no scouting reports to be found.

Round 25, #758 overall: Stone Speer, LHP from University of New Orleans, Lousiania (22 Y.O., 6'0, 195 lbs.)

One of the Rays first signings, Speer struggled mightily in 2013 as he split time between the rotation and the bullpen. Overall, he went 1-8 with a 6.26 ERA.

Round 26, #788 overall: Christian Talley, RHP from Pearl River CC, Mississippi (21 Y.O, 6'4, 190 lbs.)

A tall, projectable right handed pitcher from Pearl River Community College, reports on Talley are minimal. According to Perfect Game, he sat in the 87-88 range as a high schooler. Judging from his twitter feed, it appears likely that he will sign.

Round 27, #818 overall: Hyrum Formo, RHP from Pima CC, Arizona (21 Y.O., 6'1, 190 lbs.)

Another junior college pitcher selected by the Rays, Hyrum Formo pitched in 14 games, working 89.1 innings while allowing a 3.02 ERA. Baseball America rated him the 25th best prospect in Arizona while Perfect Game ranked him the 100th best junior college prospect. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and he has already signed with the Rays.

Round 28, #848 overall: Derek Loera, LHP from Lubbock Christian, Texas (22 Y.O., 5'11, 180 lbs.)

An undersized lefty, Derek Loera was a starter for Lubbock Christian, working 93.2 innings with a 2.98 ERA and 89 strikeouts. Again, there is little scouting information available.

Round 29, #878 overall: Hunter Wood, RHP from Howard College, Texas (19 Y.O., 6'1, 171 lbs.)

Drafted by the Red Sox in the 32nd round last year, Wood turned down their offer and was picked three rounds higher this year. An athletic pitcher, Wood is projectable despite his average size. Earlier reports have his fastball in the 88-91 range with good run. At 19 years old, he is still young and has time to add more velocity.

Round 30, #908 overall: Colton Reavis, RHP from Northwood University, Texas (23 Y.O. 6'0, 195 lbs.)

Unfortunately, I could not find any statistics or scouting reports for Colton Reavis.

Round 32, #968 overall: Anthony Tzamtzis: RHP from North Carolina State, North Carolina (22 Y.O., 6'0, 190 lbs.)

A native of Miami, Anthony Tzamtzis bounced in and out of an N.C. State rotation that features Carlos Rodon, a heavy favorite to be the top pick next year. In his 28.1 innings, he pitched to a 5.40 ERA with a 25/30 K/BB rate. As an undersized right hander with command issues and the lack of a quality third pitch, Tzamtzis profiles best in relief. His fastball sits in the 92-94 range, and he flashes a plus slider.

Round 35, #1058 overall: Cody Jordan, RHP from Grambling State, Louisiana (22 Y.O., 6'5, 220 lbs.)

A better first base prospect out of high school, Cody Jordan found a home in Grambling State's rotation. He is a strike thrower who pitches in the 80s and mixes his pitches well.

Round 36, #1088 overall: Ryan Moselely, RHP from Cooper HS, Texas (18 Y.O., 6'1, 190 lbs.)

One of only four high school pitchers taken in the draft by the Rays, Ryan Moseley is a much better prospect than his 36th round selection indicates. Rated the 217th best draft prospect by Baseball America, Moseley was a catcher for most of his youth, converting to the mound full-time this spring for the first time. Because of this, Moseley's inexperience and rawness are clearly visible on the mound. However, his pure stuff is enticing. His fastball sits at 91-93, and scouts believe that with his projection there is more velocity to come. His best offspeed pitch is a solid curveball, with a under-developed change-up his third pitch. A commit to Texas Tech, Moseley should be a tough sign, but if the Rays can find room in their budget, he would be a welcome addition to the Rays scarce pitching depth in the low minors.

Round 37, #1118 overall: Lloyd Slaton, RHP from San Jose State, California (20 Y.O., 6'1, 190 lbs.)

In 91.1 innings with San Jose State in 2013, Lloyd Slaton led the team with 49 strikeouts while posting a 4.04 ERA.

Round 39, #1178 overall: Johnny Meszaros, RHP from Robert Service HS, Alaska (18 Y.O., 6'3, 215 lbs.)

If for nothing else, Johnny Meszaros is an interesting prospect because of where he is from. A right handed pitcher from Alaska, Baseball America rated Meszaros the top prospect in the state. According to Perfect Game, Meszaros works in the 86-88 range with his fastball, touching 90 mph. Meszaros also has a interesting past for those concerned with a draftee's makeup.

Overall Impressions

In the 2013 draft, the Rays selected 24 pitchers with their 41 picks. Of those 24 pitchers, four were from high school, three were from junior college, and the remaining seventeen were from college.

My early impression is that it was a poor draft for the Rays in terms of adding quality pitching prospects. Ryne Stanek is a great pick at 29th overall, but after that, there were few arms of present significance. Ryne Stanek should fit somewhere in the middle to back of the Rays top ten prospects. Roel Ramirez (round 8) and Ryan Moseley (round 36), if both signed, should receive top 50 prospect consideration. There are a few more interesting arms that you can envision making the majors such as Jaime Schultz and Hyrum Formo, but both need plenty of work and development to eventually fit into a major league bullpen. After that, there is not much to be confident in. A few years from now, this could look very different if a few guys break out, but right now, it looks like a weak draft class by the Rays on the pitching front.

Making Sense Of Roberto Hernandez's Season

2013-06-10T17:30:05Z

Coming into this season, most Rays fans set low expectations for Roberto Hernandez. We hoped he would eat innings in the fifth starter role, even if the quality of this innings left something to be desired. Most anticipated meager strikeout totals, an average amount of walks, tons of ground balls, and not many balls clearing the fences. In other words, we expected Hernandez to be his own typical self.

So far, Hernandez's season has been.... different. He is not working as deep into games as one would like, and while he is generating ground balls, he is also surrendering an alarming amount of home runs. Even more surprising is that his strikeout rate has exploded (8.04/9 compared to 5.54/9 in his career). While neither his ERA nor his FIP paints a pretty picture of his season, both xFIP and SIERA, two of the most popular ERA estimators, believe that he has been unlucky and could be in the midst of a career year.

On the surface, the reasoning for the optimism is very solid. His strikeout rate has climbed to a very good level, his walks are more than under control, and he is inducing ground balls. SIERA, which takes into account a pitcher's batted ball profile (fly balls, line drives, and ground balls), estimates his true ERA to be 3.46. Meanwhile, xFIP, a version of FIP that normalizes HR/FB% to 10.5%, agrees with SIERA; his xFIP this year is 3.48. The strong peripherals are leading stat-inclined fans and analysts to expect regression; the idea is that when Hernandez's 22.0% HR/FB rate reaches normal levels, he will be fine.

So, in other words, we are supposed to wait for his home run numbers to regress. His high home run rate is not a true indication of his talent. But I suggest we ask ourselves another question: are these strikeout and walks an indication of his true talent level? It seems like faulty analysis, in my opinion, to overlook the fact that his current strikeout and walk rates could be a misrepresentation of how he will pitch going forward.

On the surface, Hernandez's higher strikeout rates appear reasonable. He is now under the tutelage of Jim Hickey, wildly regarded as one of the best pitching coaches in the majors. He is throwing fewer fastballs and far more change-ups. There are several other explanations that also feed this narrative. Still, I decided to take a closer look at the numbers.

Plate Discipline

Here is a comparison of the Roberto Hernandez's plate discipline statistics both this year and his last good year, 2007.

Stat	2007	2013
O-Swing%	26.8%	31.6%
Z-Swing%	67.7%	62.4%
Swing%	47.9%	44.9%
O-Contact%	58.3%	64.6%
Z-Contact%	90.5%	90.0%
Contact%	81.7%	79.8%
Zone%	51.4%	43.1%
SwStr%	8.6%	8.5%
K%	15.6%	20.4%

A few things immediately stand out. Hernandez has nearly an identical swinging strike rate as he did in 2007, but his strikeout rate is much higher this year. Hernandez is throwing far fewer pitches in the zone (Zone%), and more hitters are swinging at pitches outside of the zone. This appears to be a result of him throwing his change-up much more often as a chase pitch. However, interestingly enough, hitters are making much more contact on pitches outside of the zone. On the other hand, hitters are swinging at less pitches in the zone, though they are making similar levels of contact. Overall, hitters are swinging less.

What does all this mean? Hernandez is throwing less pitches in the zone, and batters are swinging less often. However, they are swinging much more frequently at pitches outside of the zone, which should lead to an increased strikeout rate. Since they are making more contact on these pitches, both his contact and his swinging strike rates are very similar. While these plate discipline stats indicate a change, they do not particularly suggest that his strikeout rate should be higher.

K% and SwStr%

For two years, we, as Rays fans, were mystified by how Jeremy Hellickson struck out so few batters despite generating so many swings and misses. As Bradley Woodrum illustrated, swinging strikes correlate well with strikeouts. Pitchers that get lots of whiffs tend to get lots of strikeouts. For whatever reason, Hellickson was a very rare exception, receiving lots of whiffs yet not many strikeouts.

The whole idea of whiffs correlating to strikeouts takes us back to Roberto Hernandez. Hernandez features the 21st best strikeout rate in the AL (K%) and the 28th best swinging strike rate. Since Hernandez's swinging strike rate is 8.5%, I looked at all qualified AL starting pitchers with a swinging strike rate from 8.0% to 9.0% to see how their K% compared to Hernandez's.

Twelve pitchers fit this profile. As a group, they combined for a 8.5% swinging strike rate, which is exactly the same as Hernandez's. Their strikeout percentage was 20.6%, 0.2% higher than Roberto Hernandez's. This proposes that Roberto Hernandez's strikeout rate, based on his swinging strikeout rate, is right around where it should be.

This leaves us in a bit of a quandary. For his career, Roberto Hernandez has always been on the lower end of the strikeout range for a pitcher with his swinging strike rate. 2007 is a perfect example of this, as his SwStr% was nearly the same as this year's yet his K% was much lower (see the above chart). However, he has made several adjustments this year (more change ups, and more inside sinkers) that could possibly explain his higher strikeout rate. Additionally, his strikeout rate is now in the proper range compared to his SwStr%.

So what should Hernandez's K% be going forward if he continues to pitch the way he has this year? Personally, I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. Because of his career numbers, I think the K% will dip a little; however, I believe the adjustments truly made a difference and that his strikeout rate will be better than it was in 2007. If I had to pick a certain percentage, I would peg his K% going forward at around 18.5%.

Walk Rate

Much has been made of Hernandez's strikeout rate while his stellar walk rate is overlooked. Hernandez is walking only 6.2% of batters he is facing, down significantly from his career rate of 8.7%. While it is debatable whether his strikeout rate will regress, there is convincing evidence that his walk rate will worsen.

For his career, Hernandez has thrown balls 38% of the time. This year, he is throwing balls 36% of the time, which is slightly less. However, as I already pointed out, his walk rate is down significantly from his career percentages, not slightly. Additionally, there is nothing in his plate discipline profile that explains the decrease in walks. If batters were making more contact and putting balls in play early in the count, a lower amount of walks would make sense. However, his contact percentage, which is the percentage of time a batter makes contact when swinging, is actually lower than his career averages. When batters are swinging, they are putting the ball in play 42% of the time, only one percent down from his career.

I believe it is safe to assume that Hernandez's sparkling walk rate will closely resemble his career figures for the remainder of the season.

Summary

While Hernandez may not be as bad as his ERA says, there is evidence that both xFIP and SIERA also overrate his value. My guess is that Hernandez, going forward, will see his home runs and strikeouts dip, while also seeing his walks increase. A pitcher with a HR/FB% of 12%, a 18.5% strikeout rate, and a 8.7% walk rate is about a 3.85 FIP pitcher. Since Roberto Hernandez is on pace to pitch around 180 innings, that makes him about a 2.7 WAR pitcher if the FIP is extrapolated over the course of a 180 inning season. If he pitches his remaining 21 or so games at a 3.85 FIP level, he should total about 2 WAR on this year.

That is a very good rate for a team's fifth starter, and most certainly more than we expected heading into this year. The question to me though is this: is it worth keeping a short term option in the rotation when some of the younger arms are waiting for a real chance in the major leagues? When Chris Archer comes back, the Rays will have a tough decision to make. Do they send down Chris Archer, who deserves a shot at starting in the major leagues? Since Alex Torres is out of options, when will he get an opportunity to start in the major leagues? Roberto Hernandez might be a slightly better option than these two going forward, but is it worth keeping him in the rotation instead of letting the young pitchers prove their worth in the majors? Should the Rays gain a few runs now potentially at the expense of the future? And, most importantly, will Roberto Hernandez maintain his improvements? It is certainly a worthy discussion with both sides possessing arguments of merit.

2013 Rays' Draft Signings Thread

2013-06-10T02:38:52Z

I thought we should start a thread to gather updates on the new draftees. If you see any news on any signings or information on whether or not a player will sign, put it in the comments with a link to the source and I will update it here.

1. Nick Ciuffo: Unsigned

1. Ryan Stanek: Unsigned

2. Riley Unroe: Signed

3. Thomas Milone

Pet 06/07 update, Milone is a lean to sign:

"He's looking at both sides of it," said Ralph Franco, Milone's coach at Masuk. "But I think he's leaning toward signing a major league contract. It has been his lifelong dream since he was in Little League. The whole town is so incredibly proud of Thomas."

Source: http://articles.courant.com/2013-06-07/sports/hc-mlb-amateur-draft-0608-20130607_1_lj-mazzilli-tampa-bay-rays-mets-vp

4. Kean Wong

Wong should sign per 06/07 update:

Wong confirmed to KHON2 Sports Director Rob DeMello this afternoon that he intends to sign with the Rays.

Source: http://www.khon2.com/2013/06/07/wong-kiner-falefa-get-the-call-in-round-4-of-mlb-draft/

5. Johnny Field: Signed

6. Stephen Woods

Woods will sign per 06/07 update:

"It's been my dream to play professionally," Woods said. "I told my coach that if the draft passed the sixth round, I would go to Albany."

Source: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/hofstra-s-bryan-verbitsky-hills-east-s-stephen-woods-taken-in-mlb-draft-1.5434143

7. Ty Young

8. Roel Ramirez: Signed

Update 06/11: Per Marc Topkin, Roel Ramirez is the first Rays draftee to sign.

Update 06/08:

"I was nervous at first, but I'm relaxed now and happy I'll have the opportunity to play for the Tampa Bay Rays."

Ramirez said once he signs the Rays expect to send him to Tampa to play on their rookie ball team.

Source: http://www.pro8news.com/news/Three-Laredoans-Drafted-in-2013-MLB-Draft-210730321.html

9. Austin Pruitt: Signed

10. Aaron Griffin: Signed

11. Hunter Lockwood: Signed

12. Pat Blair: Signed

13. Ben Griset: Signed

14. Jaime Schultz: Signed

Per update on 06/08, Shultz appears to be ready to sign:

“This is the greatest thrill of my life,” Schultz said. “I want to thank all my coaches and teammates at High Point University. I would never have been in this situation with them.”

Source: http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2013/06/08/sports/doc51b3e6f0aa5a8027877518.txt

15. Cody Blanchard: Signed

16. Darren Fischer: Signed

17. Willie Calhoun

18. Julian Ridings

19. Josh Kimborowicz

20. Harmen Sidhu

21. John Farrell: Signed

22. Andrew Hanse: Signed

23.Richard Teasley: Signed

24. Jeremy Hadley: Signed

25. Stone Speer: Signed

26. Christian Talley

27. Hyrum Formo: Signed

28. Derek Lorea: Signed

29. Hunter Wood: Signed

30. Colton Reavis: Signed

31. Dalton Martinez

32. Anthony Tzamtzis

33. Hector Montes

34. Devin Ceciliani

35. Cory Jordon: Signed

36. Ryan Moseley

37. Lloyd Slaton: Signed

38. David Sheaffer

39. Johnny Meszaros

40. Ryan Henley

Signing updates per Marc Topkin.

1. Nick Ciuffo: Unsigned

1. Ryan Stanek: Unsigned

2. Riley Unroe: Signed

3. Thomas Milone

Pet 06/07 update, Milone is a lean to sign:

"He's looking at both sides of it," said Ralph Franco, Milone's coach at Masuk. "But I think he's leaning toward signing a major league contract. It has been his lifelong dream since he was in Little League. The whole town is so incredibly proud of Thomas."

Source: http://articles.courant.com/2013-06-07/sports/hc-mlb-amateur-draft-0608-20130607_1_lj-mazzilli-tampa-bay-rays-mets-vp

4. Kean Wong

Wong should sign per 06/07 update:

Wong confirmed to KHON2 Sports Director Rob DeMello this afternoon that he intends to sign with the Rays.

Source: http://www.khon2.com/2013/06/07/wong-kiner-falefa-get-the-call-in-round-4-of-mlb-draft/

5. Johnny Field: Signed

6. Stephen Woods

Woods will sign per 06/07 update:

"It's been my dream to play professionally," Woods said. "I told my coach that if the draft passed the sixth round, I would go to Albany."

Source: http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/hofstra-s-bryan-verbitsky-hills-east-s-stephen-woods-taken-in-mlb-draft-1.5434143

7. Ty Young

8. Roel Ramirez: Signed

Update 06/11: Per Marc Topkin, Roel Ramirez is the first Rays draftee to sign.

Update 06/08:

"I was nervous at first, but I'm relaxed now and happy I'll have the opportunity to play for the Tampa Bay Rays."

Ramirez said once he signs the Rays expect to send him to Tampa to play on their rookie ball team.

Source: http://www.pro8news.com/news/Three-Laredoans-Drafted-in-2013-MLB-Draft-210730321.html

9. Austin Pruitt: Signed

10. Aaron Griffin: Signed

11. Hunter Lockwood: Signed

12. Pat Blair: Signed

13. Ben Griset: Signed

14. Jaime Schultz: Signed

Per update on 06/08, Shultz appears to be ready to sign:

“This is the greatest thrill of my life,” Schultz said. “I want to thank all my coaches and teammates at High Point University. I would never have been in this situation with them.”

Source: http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2013/06/08/sports/doc51b3e6f0aa5a8027877518.txt

15. Cody Blanchard: Signed

16. Darren Fischer: Signed

17. Willie Calhoun

18. Julian Ridings

19. Josh Kimborowicz

20. Harmen Sidhu

21. John Farrell: Signed

22. Andrew Hanse: Signed

23.Richard Teasley: Signed

24. Jeremy Hadley: Signed

25. Stone Speer: Signed

26. Christian Talley

27. Hyrum Formo: Signed

28. Derek Lorea: Signed

29. Hunter Wood: Signed

30. Colton Reavis: Signed

31. Dalton Martinez

32. Anthony Tzamtzis

33. Hector Montes

34. Devin Ceciliani

35. Cory Jordon: Signed

36. Ryan Moseley

37. Lloyd Slaton: Signed

38. David Sheaffer

39. Johnny Meszaros

40. Ryan Henley

Signing updates per Marc Topkin.

Down On The Farm: June 9

2013-06-09T11:00:06Z

Triple-A Durham Bulls (40-23)

Wil Myer's led the Durham Bulls in their 6-3 victory over Louisville. With the super 2 date approaching, Myers continued to stay red hot. He was 3-5 on the night with two home runs, one to dead center and one that left the park to left field. Matt Buschmann was solid over his 5.1 innings, allowing 3 runs, two of them earned. Tim Beckham also added two hits, one of them a triple.

Double-A Montgomery Biscuits (32-30)

The Biscuits' pitching staff were exceptional on Saturday night as they held Huntsville scoreless in their 2-0 victory. Jacob Thompson went the first seven innings while CJ Riefenhauser pitched two clean innings in relief. Combined, they struck out five batters, walked two, and allowed four hits. Kevin Kiermaier went 1-3 with a double.

Advanced Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs (27-33)

Despite a strong start from Jesse Hahn, the Stone Crabs fell to Palm Beach 6-2. Hahn went the first four innings, allowing only one unearned run. His ERA is now 0.68. It took four relief pitchers to pitch the final five innings. Lenny Linsky was tagged with the loss as he gave up four runs in his inning of work. Ryan Brett continued his hot start by slapping two hits; Kes Carter also collected two hits. Jake Hager left the game with a shoulder injury.

Class-A Bowling Green Hot Rods (32-29)

In a thrilling extra-innings game, the Hot Rods topped the Lake County Captains by the score of 7-6. The Hot Rods, down by four, scored five runs in the top of the ninth inning. However, Lake County countered with a run of their own in the bottom of the ninth. The Hot Rods won it in the tenth when Andrew Toles scored on a sacrifice fly by Tyler Goeddel. Luke Maile went 3-5 with a triple. Reinaldo Lopez pitched five innings of five run ball while Eduar Quinonez allowed only one run in his five innings of relief.

CLICK HERE FOR ALL BOX SCORES

Star of the Day: WIl Myers

Goat of the Day: Lenny Linsky

Today's Games:

Durham @ Louisville 6:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
Colome (4-5, 2.73) v. Reynolds (6-0, 2.65)

Montgomery v. Huntsville 7:05 PM (MiLB.TV)
TBA v. TBA

Charlotte v. Palm Beach 5:30 PM
TBA v. TBA

Bowling Green @ Lake County 1:30 PM
Guerrieri (3-2, 3.14) v. Aviles (1-1, 3.18)

DRaysBay Top 50 Prospect Stat Lines

Wil Myers: 3-5, 2 HR, 0 K
Tim Beckham: 2-4, 3B
Brandon Guyer: 2-4, BB
Mikie Mahtook: 0-3 BB, K
Cameron Seitzer: 1-3, BB, K
Todd Glaesmann: 0-4, K
CJ Riefenhauser: 2 IP, H, 2 Ks
Jesse Hahn: 4 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, BB 4 Ks
Ryan Brett: 2-4, K
Kes Carter: 2-3, BB
Richie Shaffer: 0-3
Drew Vettleson: 0-4, K
Jeff Malm: 1-4
Andrew Toles: 2-6, 2 Ks
Tyler Goeddel: 1-4, BB
Patrick Leonard: 1-4, BB, K
Brandon Martin: 0-5, K

2013 MLB Draft: Day 3 Open Thread

2013-06-08T16:39:36Z

The draft resumes today at 1:00 PM ET; when today's drafting comes to a close, all 40 rounds will have taken place.

Yesterday, the third through tenth rounds of the draft played out. Here are the results so far, through the entire draft, for the Rays.

Round 1: Nick Ciuffo, High School C

Round 1: Ryan Stanek, College RHP

Round 2: Riley Unroe, High School SS

Round 3: Thomas Milone, High School OF

Round 4: Kean Wong, High School 2B

Round 5: Johnny Field, College 2B

Round 6: Stephen Woods, High School RHP

Round 7: Tyler Young, College 2B

Round 8: Roel Ramirez, High School RHP

Round 9: Austin Pruitt, College RHP

Round 10: Aaron Griffin, College RHP

Scott and I will post recaps on these players, along with some other draft review pieces, in the next few days.

Now that the first ten rounds are completed, teams are no longer operating under a bonus pool. The maximum slot for each remaining player is $100,000. If teams surpass that total, then the additional money is charged to the bonus pool for the first ten rounds. So if the Rays sign a player for $500,000 in the 12th round, then $400,000 counts against the Rays bonus pool.

If last years draft was any indication, teams will take some shots at high upside players in the first few rounds today, hoping to sign them for overslot deals. However, the Rays are working with a very tight budget, so they may be reluctant to try their luck with players who will cost much more than $100,000. Expect the later rounds to be used to fill out the rosters for the teams in the low minors.

DRaysBay: All Posts by Michael Valancius

Rays Fall to Red Sox 5-1 In First Game of Double Header

Down On The Farm: June 16

Down On The Farm: June 15

2013 Rays Draft Recap: The Pitchers

2013 Draft Review: Positional Players

Making Sense Of Roberto Hernandez's Season

2013 Rays' Draft Signings Thread

Down On The Farm: June 9

2013 MLB Draft: Day 3 Open Thread