RAYS 2, Boston 1 Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg, FL

Win Probability Table Courtesy of Fan Graphs

Boston at RAYS 7:10; RAYS TV/ION RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:

RH Clay Buchholz, Boston-The Rays get their first look at a key member of Boston's young pitching corps tonight, having not faced Buchholz in his brief major league trial last season or thus far this year. Though Boston's rotation is clearly led by RHPs Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett, with RHP Curt Schilling on the DL and not soon to return, they have been relying more and more upon a burgeoning young staff that should guide them well into the future. Buchholz is one of the pitchers leading that charge.

He shot up through the Boston system last year, starting at AA Portland and dominating there before a quick stop in AAA Pawtucket. He was called up at the end of the season for the Red Sox and posted the dominating stat line you see above in a brief tour of duty. Thus far in 2008, he hasn't quite been able to match that line in an innings sample that is, at this point, virtually the same. He has a 4.79 ERA over four starts for the Red Sox, even though his peripherals don't really differ that much from the ones he put up last year, sans some worse luck. His K:BB has actually improved a little bit this year so far, as he has cut his walk rate some to offset a lower strikeout rate. Overall though, the former supplemental first round pick will easily improve on that ERA this season should he keep pitching as well as he has. While a 0.00 HR/9 rate is not sustainable, he is a pretty solid groundball pitcher, and he's maintaining a decent course with a rate of 0.87 HR/9 so far this year. In a league where teams play for the three run homer, he should be fine.

The main problem for him so far has been luck. I don't mean to absolve him of some responsibility for a mediocre ERA, but opponents are hitting .343 off of him on balls in play, a rate that should regress back to the mean in due time. On a superb defensive team like Boston, Buchholz should experience success when pitching to contact. He is already a polished pitcher with some good attributes who should improve with time. And that's bad news for the rest of the AL East.

RH Edwin Jackson, RAYS-So far this season, Jackson has continued his usual Jekyll and Hyde routine that has turned out mostly bad for the Rays. The continued tolerance level for pitching that, at the end of the day, never seems to improve is astonishing. That we've been going through this song and dance for a year now and sporadically for another year before that is absurd.

Perhaps I should just cut and paste that one paragraph and use it in every  single Jackson start from now on. It seems like the book on him never changes, it just gets more words written into it. In case you hadn't noticed, Jackson's ERA has shot up from 0.64 to 4.63 in just two starts. What's more, he's actually walking batters at a greater rate than he was in his terrible 2007 campaign, and he's striking out fewer. And the numbers say it will only get worse, since opponents are hitting just .251 off of him on balls in play. Whether the regression to the mean on that front will occur tonight, or later on (hopefully in the bullpen), it will occur.

The most frustrating thing about this is that he can only do so much to rectify the issue. His limitations are what they are, and at some point the team's confidence in him turns into setting him up for failure, again and again and again. I don't particularly feel like tearing into Jackson every five or six days, because it's redunculous. Nothing ever seems to move, and the team and Jackson both suffer for it. As I've said before, I also feel bad about it, since I like Jackson and want him to do well. But the team isn't doing him any favors by "staying the course". You all know what the definition of insanity is, and Jackson's case is the perfect real world example of it. Hopefully with LHP Scott Kazmir's return to the rotation coming next weekend, it will be curtains for Jackson's tenure in the rotation. At that point, I hope he finally finds some success out of the bullpen.

Starting Lineups:

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!