RAYS 6, New York 3 Yankee Stadium Bronx, NY

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RAYS at New York 1:05; RAYS TV/ION RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

News:

• Injured LHP Scott Kazmir threw a bullpen session at the Naimoli Complex this morning, and Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times reports on The Heater that it went relatively well. Kazmir threw 60 pitches in an 18 minute bullpen session, mixing in 10-12 sliders for the first time to go along with 10-12 changeups and mostly fastballs. Kazmir will throw a live batting practice session before Tuesday's home opener at Tropicana Field, and hopes to expedite his scheduled return from a left elbow strain. Kazmir is currently in line to return before the end of the month to the major leagues, and will probably throw two innings in an Extended Spring Training game sometime soon to get prepared.
  
• LHP Kurt Birkins, who is also rehabbing from a left elbow injury, threw a 42 pitch bullpen session at the Naimoli Complex on Saturday as well. It was supposedly a successful session, as he threw pain-free, but Birkins indicated that his stamina still needs work. The lefty will probably join Kazmir in throwing batting practice before Tuesday's home opener against Seattle.
  
• IF Ben Zobrist continues to linger in purgatory as he tries to come back from a fractured left thumb. He will get X-Rays for the thumb on Monday.

Pitching Matchup:

RH Edwin Jackson-E-Jax makes his debut for the Rays in 2008 today at Yankee Stadium, which is confirmation that the days of starting a pitcher who posted a 5.76 ERA in 31 starts last year are not quite over. I'm going to spare you all another anti-Jackson rant, because at this point we really aren't breaking any new ground. And besides, I feel sort of bad about doing it. Jackson seems like a nice guy, yet I've still probably directed more vitriol his way than I did Aubrey Huff when he was here, and that's not fair. Still, for the purposes of evaluating a major league pitcher, it is hard to look at Jackson's numbers without being negative.

Even though his strikeout rate inched upward last year to 7.16, his walk rate still finished at a horrid 4.92 in his first full major league season. The lack of control trend continued in spring training, when Jackson mustered up a 13:11 strikeout to walk ratio. There is some silver lining in the results last year to hold us over until he is inevitably replaced though: Jackson's opponents' BABIP was north of .350 last year, indicating that he was probably hit harder than he should have been. His pitching repertoire clearly doesn't lend itself to being batting practice material for hitters, so on that front you can be cautiously optimistic that Jackson will improve if his luck ascends to even the mean. He also had an unusually high HR/9 rate for a pitcher who did get a lot of groundballs, so you may also see improvement on that front.

Still, when it comes to Edwin Jackson, it's all about control. The results are clear, and the trend is going nowhere positive. Jackson really doesn't belong in a major league rotation, and the only thing you can take solace in as a Rays fan is that he stands to be on a shorter leash in 2008.

Career Stats

2007 Game Log

Career Splits

New York vs Jackson

LH Andy Pettitte-Suffice it to say, Andy Pettitte didn't have the best of off-seasons. Even though his contract was extended for one year and $16 million, revelations about Pettitte's usage of HGH in the past brought shame upon a name that had been previously squeaky clean. So, as we enter the post-righteous stage of Pettitte's career, it is worth wondering how much more the southpaw has in the tank. Pettitte has thrown 200+ innings in three straight seasons as a member of the Astros and the Yankees, and his 4.05 ERA last year shows that he still is very valuable to a Yankee rotation that could be very volatile this year. Of concern for New York should be Pettitte's plummeting strikeout rate: his K/9 dropped by over 1.5 in-between 2006 and 2007, and the soon-to-be 36 year old lefty can't afford to see it drop much further if he is to remain an effective pitcher. His walk rate held steady last year around his career average of 2.81, and his home run rate improved back to his career norms from an unusually high 2006. These mitigating factors allowed Pettitte to overcome a 1.43 WHIP and actually improve upon his 2006 ERA of 4.20 with Houston.

One thing going for Pettitte this afternoon is his penchant for just dominating the Rays. He has a 3.53 ERA in 122.1 career innings against the ballclub, and has kept most of the team's regulars in check. The exception to that is 1B Carlos Peña, who is 7 for 18 with two triples, two home runs, and two walks all-time against the New York lefty.

That Pettitte is no longer the ace pitcher leading New York to multiple championships is clear. If New York does win this year, Pettitte will be only a complementary piece. But he can still potentially be a very valuable complementary piece if he has enough left in the tank to be a solid back end starter amidst the Yankees' youth movement. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system has his ERA rising slightly to 4.40 this year, but the Yankees will take a season like that from a guy they know will give them a lot of innings. He may no longer be the Andy Pettitte of the past, but he is still a formidable pitcher with quite a bit going for him.

Career Stats

2007 Game Log

Career Splits

RAYS vs Pettitte

Starting Lineups:

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!