Kotchman's Balls
Is there an easy way to find out how many balls Casey Kotchman hit out of the infield last year?
I have a friend who is a die-hard Indians fan and I am considering a bet with him that Carlos Pena will have more RBI's this year than Kotchman will have balls hit out of the infield.
Is this an unwise bet?
What do you think think think think think think think think think (sorry...)?
Josh Sale: Facing Long Odds
Hello readers, this is Scott from the Rays Prospects podcast. Some of you may already be familiar with me either from the podcast or the occasional written piece over there, but if not, I'd recommend listening to an episode (most recent episode can be found here.) It's a tolerable show until I start speaking.
I'm sure most readers know Josh Sale, so the history lesson will be brief. The Rays made him the 17th overall pick in the 2010 draft, and he appeared to fit an organizational need: a potential middle of the order bat with power. Baseball America rated him as the 10th best prospect in the draft, and he was second among all high school position players behind eventual 3rd overall pick Manny Machado. Their scouting report was impressive, saying, "Sale has raw power that approaches the top of the scouting scale." They also noted that one scout remarked that he had the best bat speed as an amateur he's ever seen. His work ethic and mature plate approach would allow him to adjust and correct any mechanical issues at the plate. He doesn't have a good arm and isn't particularly athletic, but if his bat develops the way scouts expect, he should profile nicely out in left field. Is his development on track?
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Wed futures game?
Anyone been to a preseason game at the Trop? How many people show up? I know they only have the lower level open, but I'm likely going with my daughter's kindergarten class, and am wondering if there will be anyone there....I'm thinking not very many - but I've been wrong before.
Anyone been to a spring game there? What should I expect?
I'm also not expecting much in the way of real Rays vs Future Rays, but maybe I'll be surprised and see a lot of players in a final tune-up.
GDT 3/31/2012 Rays vs Red Sox (aka Boston Trash)
I don't know why you people don't have GDTs for spring games, but I want one. So here it is.
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Fantasy Baseball Superliga Update
Every league has now had their draft and I think Hatfield is the only person that has already stopped playing so we're off to a good start. I've updated our workbook for the league so that you can see who everyone has on their roster as of a couple of hours ago:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhdYS83t3IB7dE1OaWZVUTF0S3B5UnpKWVV4Nmt4WWc#gid=8
Looks like a lot of teams with promise and only a handful look like they'll never have a chance. I plan to update each league on a weekly basis, but also want to keep a sheet for this initial look so that we can compare the end of season rosters against this. Good luck to everyone this year as we all try to break into Tier 1. Thanks for taking the time to make this a success and I hope you stay interested throughout the year and come back next season when relegation will work like this:
Your final record will be regressed based on which Tier you are in. Being Tier 1 is an honor that must be earned. Once you are there it will be difficult to knock you out while the lower levels should see a bit more movement.
Tier 1 will be regressed at a .600 winning percentage
Tier 2 will be regressed at a .550 winning percentage
Tier 3 will be regressed at a .500 winning percentage
Tier 4 will be regressed at a .450 winning percentage
For example, let's say you're a .500 team. Here's what your adjusted winning percentage would be in each tier:
1: 0.550
2: 0.525
3: 0.500
4: 0.475
Every team will be ranked by their adjusted winning percentage. The top 10 returning teams will be the new Tier 1 and so on. All new teams will be added to the bottom of our ranks. It's possible to go Tier 4 to Tier 1 and vice-versa, but it would take extremely good/bad seasons to do so. We should see plenty of movement through Tiers 2 and 3 allowing you a better chance of advancing next year. Stay interested, do well, and it's possible to advance quite rapidly.
Use this thread for anything that you want related to these leagues and any other fantasy talk and have a great season.
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Matt Joyce: Sleeper or Bust?
Had an opportunity to read Danny Knobler of CBS Sports Rays Camp Report and on the side of the article CBS Sports fantasy baseball writer gives a very pessimistic outlook on Matt Joyce's season. Of course, he is more referring to where to draft him in fantasy baseball (so my headline is a little deceiving) but the numbers he floats, his opinion of 2011, and his overall outlook for Joyce is not very positive.
Bust ... Matt Joyce, OF: Wait, this one is labeled wrong. Joyce was a long-awaited minor-leaguer who did nothing but live up to hype when he finally got to play regularly last year, even making the All-Star team. Surely he's more of a sleeper than a bust in waiting, right? Right? Sadly, no. Most of his production last year stemmed from an exceptionally hot May in which he hit .414 with seven homers and a 1.229 OPS. From June 1 to the end of September -- a full two-thirds of the season -- he hit only .226 with 10 homers and a .691 OPS. For the year, he hit only .217 against lefties, likely condemning him to a platoon role again. And because he's already 27 he has less room for improvement than you might think. Joyce's final numbers may look OK but he was by and large a disappointment last year. And if his struggles prevent him from getting full-time at-bats this year, he'll be a waste of a middle-round pick in Fantasy. -- Scott White
Surely there is more to Matt Joyce's 2011 season than just the startling month of May. Putting so much value on May and then lumping from June 1st to the end of the season doesn't seem fair? Joyce had an outstanding April (.884 OPS) and May (1.229) and an awful June (.529 OPS) and July (.653 OPS) He also dealt with a shoulder injury in June and July that the writer neglects to mention and something that may of been more damaging than simple regression.
Looking at Joyce's numbers from August 1st he hit .274/.367/.425. in 169 PAs. One problem that players have when they finally land an everyday job in the big leagues is consistency. Matt Joyce whether through injury or being the victim of inconsistency and failure to adjust struggled for two months of the season. He did find his way later in the season and seemed to either get healthy or made the necessary adjustments.
I am a huge Matt Joyce fan so my viewpoint may be skewed slightly and I am looking at a very productive 2012 for him. Scott White is only downgrading him in terms of fantasy baseball but it does seem to me but I do take exception to the tone of the recap, especially this line:
Joyce's final numbers may look OK but he was by and large a disappointment last year.
Fantasy Regrets
Every year it seems I'll make one our two decisions during a fantasy draft that I immediately regret. For the next few months, I think back on that decision every time I look at my team and imagine "what if".
This year, it was drafting Raul Ibanez over Yonder Alonso in the 20th round as my utility hitter, both currently LF eligible. Raul has the home splits, Alonso has the road advantage. If Yonder takes off, and Ibanez is a dud, I'll be kicking myself.
I also look back at past years highlighted by the mistake that was surely my downfall. Like that year I took Derek Jeter over Jimmy Rollins. Or the year I said to myself, "Surely strikeouts won't hurt my standing that much" and watched Mark Reynolds tank my team...
Anyways, I'm wondering if any of y'all had a similar difficult decision this year? Anything you regret so far?
DRB Fantasy Post-Draft Autopsy Thread
Discuss how much worse my draft was than yours. Remember: friends don't let friends draft drunk.
Who's On First?
As spring training winds down and the twenty five man roster is starting to take shape, my attention is now to focus on the opening series versus the New York Yankees here at Tropicana Field. The opening day starters have been named, CC Sabathia for the Yankees against James Shield for our Rays. This prompts a very intersting question, one I'd guess is open for discussion. Does Joe Maddon play this game like it's mid July and use a RH line up that does not feature Carlos Pena or Matt Joyce or does he concede to opening day and give those players the nod. Pena who I don't believe will be platooned much is awful versus Sabathia, like in 39 PA he owns a slash line of .114/205/314 for a whopping .519 OPS.
If you believe he'll platoon, offer some ideas as to how he'll approach it. Below you'll find a poll as to whether or not you believe a platoon is in order
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Join our Fantasy Baseball 2012
Hey everyone -
We are looking for 5 more people to join our fantasy baseball league, we are looking for committed players who will maintain their team. We also have a small betting pool if you are interested (see below). We have filled 11 of the spots with local people (Gainesville, Fl) but are having trouble filling the last 5 spots. If you are interested reply, via email, and we can send an invite.
The league has 11 people already committed to the yahoo league. The league settings are
Roster Positions: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL, DL, DL
Batters Stat Categories: Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Fielding Percentage (FPCT), On-base Percentage (OBP), Net Stolen Bases (NSB)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Wins (W), Outs (OUT), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), Perfect Games (PG), Net Saves (NSV)
We can change players at any time and are allowed 2 trade or waiver transactions a week.
* We have a small betting pool where each person puts in $10 and the winnings are distributed to the winners, 1st gets $100, second gets $50, third gets $10, and the others are left licking their wounds. If we can not fill out the betting pool we will accept players and not include them in the money pool.
Cheers,
Phil and Kyle
ps... our draft is Saturday, March 31st @ 8 pm. The league is a head to head league.

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