I've been thinking more and more about Bobby Abreu this weekend. He's a great hitter and his career slash line of .300/.405/.498, really makes you wonder why he hasn't been a superstar for the past decade. One thing that concerns me a little about Abreu is his home/road splits, especially since he joined the Yankees.

Career OPS split

Home .941

Away .864

He's clearly better at home, but his road numbers overall are very good. However, over the past two full seasons with the Yankees, he's been a great hitter at home and an average hitter away from the more cozy Yankee Stadium.

In 2008, the numbers seem to come closer together, but it's clear that Abreu's power number are enjoying Yankee Stadium. A legit concern?

FanGraphs pages:

Pat Burrell

Jason Giambi

Bobby Abreu

DH ADJ is simply the WAR with FLD and POS adjusted to DH standards (0 and -17.5)

There's also baserunning to throw in there. I ran the numbers and Abreu's looking at a ~1 run advantage over both when it comes to steals and caught stealings. Mainly because he's the only one who can run. Marcels and Chone have them worth the following offensive runs:

I think Chone is way out of touch here in projecting Giambi to be a win better offensively than Abreu. Otherwise what we have is a DH race that seems strikingly close. Other things to consider:

- League adjustment for Burrell.

- Park adjustments

- Price.

- Handness (since they're all so close this can become a factor. Abreu/Giambi: L, Burrell: R.)

- Age. (Abreu 35, Burrell 32, GIambi 38)

- Likelihood of decline.

I think I'm beginning to warm to Abreu.

Things we know about Bobby Abreu:

- Poor fielder

- Only one of the "big three" to not suffer a poor season recently.

- Declining walk and strikeout rates the past two seasons.

- Historically high BABIPs. That's fine, because he still hits the hell out of the ball, more than 20% line drives every season since 2002.

- Excellent plate discipline

- Doesn't pop Red Bulls or answer doors naked.

Ken Rosenthal passes this note about Bobby Abreu.

Bobby Abreu has produced six straight 100-RBI seasons, averaged 159 games the past eight years and built a .405 career on-base percentage.

Why, then, isn't he getting more play on the free-agent market?

Evidently, his price is too high.

Abreu, who turns 35 on March 11, is looking for a three-year, $48 million contract, one executive says.

Wow, if that is the truth then we can surely cross him off the list, at least for now. Abreu is a great hitter, no doubt, but that is a little ridiculous for a 35 year old who's defense rivals that of Shelly Duncan and Jack Cust. While still a very good hitter, his wOBA has average out to .364 over the past two years, which is good, but still about .30 points below his career mark. Maybe divide that $48 million by three and shave off a year and we can talk.

Ok, it's been an action packed four days of winter meetings. It's time to gather up everything in one nice recap and see where we stand.

 Day One

• The Rays were quiet until late afternoon Eastern Time when it was announced that Milton Bradley ate Pizza and French Onion soup with the Rays.
• The Rays also signed minor leaguer Paul Phillips, the pitcher.
• We learned that Griffey wanted to be the next Raymond.

Day Two

• Delmon Young coming back was the hot topic, but that was shot down quickly.
• The Rays and Cardinals had discussions. The suggested names were Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick
• Jason Giambi and The Rays chewed the fat at N9ne steakhouse.

Day Three

• The Rays liked Nelson Cruz, but so do the Texas Rangers.
• The Marlins offered Jeremy Hermida for two pitching prospects and got the no thx.
• The Rays have interest in Griffey. Position, DH or Mascot, unknown.
• Bobby Abreu's agent met with the Rays and it appears the Rays and the White Sox are the front runners for his services.
• In the biggest Rays news from the meetings, the Rays traded Edwin Jackson, who was proclaimed in 2003 as the best Dodger pitching prospect since Pedro Martinez, to the Detroit Tigers. It's only fitting that his last regular appereance came in Detroit and saw him blow a two-run lead only to get lucky enough to later win the game and tie the franchise record for wins in a season.
• The return for Jackson is Matt Joyce, a Tampa native with good power and is an above average corner outfielder. The Rays get six years of  team control for what Dave Cameron calls "essentially, a left-handed Werth - a guy who can play very good defense in a corner OF spot, has gap power and will walk occasionally, but whose lower contact rate will always keep his average down. "
• Oh and he rescues kittens. P Brady would be proud.

Day Four

• The Rule 5 Draft took place and as expected Eduardo Morlan was selected. Morlan is now property of the Brewers, but could still land back with the Rays at some point.
• The Rays selected RHP, Derek Rodriguez, who oddly enough could be the loogy the Rays need.  Here is what Andrew Friedman had to say about him.

"We feel like he’s got an advanced feel for pitching," Friedman said. "He changes arm angles, he changes speeds, he misses bats. We’ve got numerous reports that he makes hitters uncomfortable in the box with the different things that he does and we’re anxious to get him into big-league camp and get a look at him firsthand."

Friedman said Rodriguez will definitely be given a chance to make the team.

"I don’t think we would have taken him if we weren’t intrigued enough to give him a real opportunity," Friedman said. "What will happen remains to be seen, and some of that will be dictated by what we do between now and then. But as we stand here today we’re excited to add him and feel like he’s got a very legitimate chance to come in and earn a job."

• In news that just makes you smile, Marc Topkin shares this.

Probably the most interesting thing Friedman said is that he thinks the Rays can be "competitive" in bidding for the free-agent hitters. The Rays have not made a formal offer for any of them, thus far just talking parameters.

All in all it was a crazy rumor filled week. The Yanks got Sabathia and made offers to every possible free agent pitcher. The Mets got K-Rod and then traded for a better closer the next day, but will use him as a set up man. The Red Sox really didn't do anything and the Rays got stronger in two areas with one move.

The Rays still have a few holes, including DH, a possible right handed bat in the outfield, and maybe a bullpen arm or two, but do you know the best part of this whole week? The Rays are players, serious players. We all felt great after the successful on the field season, but hearing the words: Rays, competitive and free agents in the same sentences just makes it even better.

Overall Winter Meeting Reaction:

via cache.daylife.com

What we learned on day two:

- The Rays and Jason Giambi met and ate at N9ne Steakhouse.

- Marc Topkin reports the Rays will meet with Bobby Abreu's agent within 24 hours. The suggestion that Abreu might play the outfield for the Rays is terrifying.

- Topkin also reports that Dave Myers has replaced Gary Gaetti as Triple-A hitting coach.

- The interest in Delmon Young is apparently smoke.

- The Rays and Cards conversed.

Reaction:

Post any rumors, tidbits, or thoughts here for conversation and digestion.

Here's a cheat sheet on the players the Rays are reported to be interested in, using Marcels and Chone projections.

If explanation is needed:

Position: COF - corner outfield

Age: Years.Months. For instance, Dunn turned 29 one month ago.

Proj. WAR:  Using Marcels/Chone a simple WAR estimate is made, which leads to...

Proj. 09$: Essentially, how much the player projects to be worth next season, when a single WAR is worth roughly 4.84 million. This is context free, what the Rays would pay for Bobby Abreu isn't the same as what the Orioles would or the Cubs, ect.

Also, answering a question sure to be asked: I included Hermida as a way of estimating how much talent the Rays would have to give up in return. Of course, this also opens a can of worms on how one should estimate prospect worth...

"There's no question this is a dual market situation," says one GM. "The corner bat/DH market is flooded, and the stock market is drowning. Not a good combination, not when pitching rules the market."

 

"The other thing is that teams are moving away from the base offensive statistics," says another GM. "They are pouring through defensive studies and seeing that below-average defenders like Ramirez and Burrell in the field depreciate their offensive numbers because of what they give up."

That is an excerpt from this piece written by Peter Gammons on the corner outfield/DH market which figures to be tops on the Rays priority list.

Gammons specifically mentions the Rays in this portion of the entry

Which is why the Tampa Bay Rays are in such a great position. They need a right field or DH bat. They have a terrific lineup in which to stack numbers. And a long list of names to consider, like Dunn, Jason Giambi, Burrell, Abreu, Raul Ibanez and Garrett Atkins from which to choose.

What once looked like a pipe dream, is now becoming a bright reality for the Rays. After the major pieces like CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira fall and set the market, the Rays will probably have three or four solid options for right field and/or DH. This comes without  trading Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, Jeff Niemann or even Jason Bartlett.

This should give Friedman the flexibilty to pick and choose in a trade while supplementing whatever position he doesn't fill via a trade with a weakened market. Even if names like Dunn, Burrell, Ibanez, Bradley and Abreu get multi-year deals elsewhere it leaves guys like Giambi, Juan Rivera, Ken Griffey, Eric Hinske, Cliff Floyd and Rocco Baldelli with no place to go. Now some of those names(including the former Rays trio) aren't ideal, but for the potential price they maybe worth a shot. 

And that doesn't even bring in the trade market which could include guys like Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick and Jeremy Hermida among others.

In the beginning of this offseason most of us thought  talking about these guys was just wishful thinking. Now, we may infact just get what we wished for.