Time to start up the community projections again. Since we've been sidetracked for the past few by the Burrell signing, it's only fitting we pick it back up with him.

BA/OBP/SLG

via mlb.mlb.com

Rightfully so, most are thinking about 2009 with Burrell, but that doesn't (nor should it) stop us from thinking about 2010. Using PECOTA (since 2006) and ZiPS comparables from previous years, I ran the FanGraphs age uh...graphs for each pair and Burrell. Let's just say I'm a little less encouraged about 2010's production than I was yesterday.

The comparisons:

Tim Salmon

Greg Luzinski

Jay Buhner

Dwight Evans

Andre Thornton

Randy Milligan

Gorman Thomas

Tom Brunansky

Morgan Ensberg

Jeff Burroughs

Ralph Kiner

Bob Bailey

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So, um. We may have went overboard in posting. Between January 5th at midnight and Jan 6th at 2 AM DRB saw 10 new posts go up and a handful of fanshots posted. Rather than point you towards the archives, this post is going to link to each with a summary of the post's content, that way if you're just now tuning in, you don't have to dig through each post to find Burrell information.

Original content:

Rays/Burrell Close - The "official" signing thread with immediate reaction.
Let Me Upgrade You - A look at what the signing does for the Rays.
Projecting the Position Players - How much WAR do the Rays have now?
Smart Teams v. Less Smart Teams - A.K.A Pat Burrell > Raul Ibanez
In Case You Were Wondering - Burrell's offensive ranks.
Perspective - The Rays history with big-time free agent signings.

Linkage:
BBTF on Burrell Deal
Keith Law
Rob Neyer
David Cameron
Peter Bendix
Pat Burrell's Condo

Also worth noting: nearly 60% of voters chose Pat Burrell in our last DH poll.

A few weeks ago Tommy covered the Rays historic lack of a designated hitter. He called it the "Curse of Greg Vaughn", to which I found appropriate. The Rays "lack" of a superstar effectively ended yesterday with the signing of Pat Burrell. Whether Burrell is statistically a superstar or not, he's pretty damn close. Burrell brings a frat boy mentality to the clubhouse and playing field along with stories that rival Jonny Gomes folklore. Simply put, Burrell is character. Of course, I would be remiss if I didn't use this signing as an opportunity to talk about the other big free agent signings in Rays history, so that's exactly what I'm going to do.

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Burrell ranks:

36th in wOBA in 2008

22nd in wOBA since 2006.

64th in wOBA* in 2008

51st in EqA in 2008.

5th in unintentional walk rate; teammates Carlos Pena and B.J. Upton rank 4th and 6th respectively in 2008.

1st in walk% over the past three years.

8th in O-Swing% over the past three years and 34th in 2008.

In other words, get ready to see a ton of this:

via lh5.ggpht.com

There will be runs.

Dan Szymborski's post is epic for the letter,but there's also ZiPS projections for our new toy. I don't want to get in trouble with Dan, so I'm going to direct you there for the letter and here for the projection part:

2009 ZiPS Projection - Pat Burrell
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2009         499  72 125  28   2  27   84 101  131   0 .251 .376 .477  118  

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

ODDIBE

Offense %
STAR    39
AVG     71
REP LV  95

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %
>160    1       >.400   23      >10     0       >200    0
>140    12      >.375   56      >5      2       >150    2
>130    28      >.350   85
>120    48      >.325   98      2B      %
>110    69      >.300   100     >45     0
>100    85                      >30     33
>90     94
>80     98
>60     100

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %
>.350   0       >.550   8       >50     0       >70     0
>.325   0       >.500   35      >40     2       >50     0
>.300   1       >.450   68      >30     42      >30     0
>.275   13      >.400   92      >20     85      >10     0
>.250   45      >.350   98      >10     98

Top Comps:  Ralph Kiner, Gorman Thomas, Bob Bailey, Jay Buhner, Greg Luzinski

Smart: Signing a DH to a short length deal.

Less smart: Signing a player who should DH to a short length deal...to play left field.

Smart: Foreseeing the market's supply of near-equal corner outfield types and waiting for prices to dictate such.

Less smart: Jumping the gun to "set the market", and ending up overpaying.

Smart: replacing a black hole with a nice bat.

Less smart: Replacing a nice bat (and poor fielder) with an older, worse, and more expensive version of said player.

Smart: Not giving up a draft pick.

Less smart: Not offering arbitration, and giving up a first round draft pick for a 36-year-old.

Smart: Obviously.

Less smart: Well...

Key

Smart: Signing Pat Burrell for 2/16.

Less smart: Signing Raul Ibanez for 3/30.

Finding value is something Andrew Friedman does extremely well. In the Money in the Bank series I did last week, I showed how good Friedman was at getting value for a low price. This off-season, Andrew Friedman has shown us another one of his skills, relocation of assets or simply upgrading....

Upgrade-to improve the quality, value, effectiveness, or performance of something.

Status quo is not something Andrew Friedman does well. While some teams are loyal to a fault, Andrew Friedman is not. He could have brought back 2008 contributors, Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd. He could have resigned fan favorites Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli (he still could, but at his price). He could have kept the same rotation and bullpen that won him a pennant in 2008, but instead of doing that, he got creative.

He traded Edwin Jackson for Matt Joyce, effectively upgrading two spots with one move. He drafted Derek Rodriguez in the Rule 5 draft and signed Joe Nelson to a below market deal. Both Rodriguez and Nelson have solid track records vs. left-handed batters, making the need for a LOOGY insignificant. In this latest move he brings Pat "The Impact Bat" Burrell to replace Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, Rocco Baldelli and Jonny Gomes all in one.The best part? He did it without overpaying.

Estimating raises for Hinske($2 mil) and Jackson($2.5 mil) and picking up the options on Floyd and Miller would've cost about $9 million for 2009. Those players combined for about three wins last year. If we replace those four with Burrell, Price, Joyce and Nelson, we're looking at about seven wins for around 11 million. Would you rather have the old four back and save the $2 million? And even if you add in buyouts to Baldelli, Floyd and Miller and push that total to around $15 million dollars you are still banking.

The going rate on a win is around $5 million dollars($4.84). The new crop of Rays are worth about four more wins. That's roughly $19 million dollars in upgrades, but will only cost $7 million more over the 2008 group including the buyouts. Many people thought the Rays would just let other teams set the market for them and sign whoever was left. Andrew Friedman basically just told the world if they call shots, I call audibles.

So reports Ken Rosenthal.  We've discussed Burrell and the other options to the finite detail over the past few months, and today we see the apex of the Rays search for a designated hitter. The following was posted on FanGraphs about a month ago.

We know that Burrell is 32 years old and hit for his lowest wOBA since 2004. Part of that should be credited to an unlucky BABIP, and perhaps a slightly down walk rate. Burrell did increase his ISO and even if you park adjust his numbers, he was still above average. Perhaps not surprisingly, Burrell is a player who actually gains value by moving to hitting full time. The major defensive metrics all reach the same conlusion: Burrell in left field is a really bad experience. The most generous, Chone, had Burrell at -14 runs, meanwhile UZR at -14.7 runs, PMR at -19.89 runs, and Dewan's +/- at -20 plays, or -16 runs.

That's an average of -16.15 runs, combine that with the positional adjustment of -7.5 and you're looking at his offensive value being zapped. As DH Burrell gets penalized -17.5 runs. 23.65-17.5 is a 6.15 run swing, in other words, Burrell gains a half of a win by simply tucking his glove in a dark corner. That's a substantial amount when you consider the DH positional penalty is trying to punish, not improve player value.

Marcels has Burrell continuing his slide (mostly age related) and slipping to .369 wOBA, or 18.7 offensive runs above average in 582 plate appearances. That makes him worth between 1.8 and 2 WAR. If Burrell can find a way into 645 plate appearances like 2008, raise those expectations to 2-2.2. That suggests Burrell should be worth between 9 to 11 million.

The Phillies chose against offering Burrell arbitration, meaning no draft picks will exchange hands. Certainly a pro, but there are some cons to signing Burrell as well. Most of those are associated with his age and potential for a quick collapse in skills. Any team desiring to add Burrell should attempt a contract covering one or two seasons. This would allow Burrell to test the market again before his mid-30's, and gives the team a chance to avoid Burrell's eventually collapse.

FanGraphs pages:

Pat Burrell

Jason Giambi

Bobby Abreu

DH ADJ is simply the WAR with FLD and POS adjusted to DH standards (0 and -17.5)

There's also baserunning to throw in there. I ran the numbers and Abreu's looking at a ~1 run advantage over both when it comes to steals and caught stealings. Mainly because he's the only one who can run. Marcels and Chone have them worth the following offensive runs:

I think Chone is way out of touch here in projecting Giambi to be a win better offensively than Abreu. Otherwise what we have is a DH race that seems strikingly close. Other things to consider:

- League adjustment for Burrell.

- Park adjustments

- Price.

- Handness (since they're all so close this can become a factor. Abreu/Giambi: L, Burrell: R.)

- Age. (Abreu 35, Burrell 32, GIambi 38)

- Likelihood of decline.

I think I'm beginning to warm to Abreu.