More photos » Steven Senne - AP

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Hope you all enjoyed the only day off this spring. Welcome to the GDT in it's normal time slot for this night cap.

Where: Charlotte Sports Park

TV/Radio/Web: 970 AM

Rays Probables- RH Wade Davis, RH Andy Sonnanstine, RH Dan Wheeler

Red Sox Probables- LH Felix Doubront, RH Boof Bonser

More photos » Kathy Willens - AP

11 days ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Ben Zobrist runs to second after he was caught off base at first but then picked off at second by New York Yankee shortstop Derek Jeter during a spring baseball training game at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Fla., Friday, March 5, 2010. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Now that Andy Hellicksonstine has so successfully taken us through the Rays' WAR projections for 2010, I thought it'd be the logical next step to look at how all the projection systems rate the Rays as an overall team. We've looked at these during the course of the post-season as projections have become available, but now that the season is upon us, we can look at all the projections together and get a better overall view. 

For more information on the differences between projection systems, visit here.

All right, now before anyone freaks out, there are a couple key things to keep in mind when looking at projected standings (or actually, any sort of projections).

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So, this past weekend I went down to Port Charlotte to catch a few games.  Unfortunately, Friday's game was rained out so we were stuck at John Hall's Goal Post Bar watching the Big Ten tourney (Evan Turner is redic, BTW).  Not much happens up to this point, but...

Saturday is a different story.

As everyone knows by now, BJ hit a pair of homers.  One was wind aided but the other, not so much.  What makes the weekend a great story is that his first monster shot landed squarely on my dome.  I was on the phone with my dad when the ball was hit so I was only somewhat paying attention.  I tried to juggle my phone and beer while trying to catch the ball with my left hand.  Bad idea.  As soon as it made contact with my skull I hit the floor like a ton of bricks.

From what I was told the sound of impact was amazing.  The ball shot up over the wall behind me and ended up with some old guy.   After about 10 minutes of my friend begging him for the ball he finally gave in and handed it over.  So then I had to convince the ushers that I did not need medical attention so I could return my seat/table along the OF wall. 

About two innings later, Rick Vaughn (the name alone is sorts of WIN) of the Rays came up to make sure I was okay and asked if I needed anything.  I told him I was fine and there was nothing he needed to do for me.  I told him Stu and I were tight (right, Stu? :-)) so I was not going to ask for anything.  He asked one final time, "Are you sure?" So I gave in and asked if it was possible for Upton to sign the ball.  He said no problem and returned a few innings later with a signed BJ Upton ball.  BJ wrote "Sorry about that" on the ball.

This whole story goes to show that Karma is a bitch.  I'm the guy who usually makes fun of people that get hit with foul/home run balls all the time so I guess it was my turn. Oh well, better me than a kid I guess.

After the game ends we head over to Joe Crakcers for a few tall boys.  My buddy with me is asking everyone if they saw the home runs Upton hit and where the first one landed.  One older guy says "You mean the one that guy wore in the face?"  We all get a laugh out of it then we tell him Upton signed the ball.  He then says "Did you see him sign it?"  We say no.  "Then you have a clubhouse kids autograph because Upton can't read or write." he says.  I'm assuming that he knows this to be fact because of the color of his skin.  FAIL #1.  We also proceed to tell him how the owner of the club was nice enough to donate to my walk for cancer (which you can still donate to...I'm lookin' at you RJ) and he again shows how fantastic of a man he is by asking me "Did he actually give you the check?"  Obviously he did not and after we tell him that he says "Then it wasn't really him.  He pinches every penny he can." FAIL #2.  I assume he knows this to be true because, ya know, he's Jewish.

So that's my wonderful weekend and I hope to be back again this weekend.

Steve Nesius - AP

Don't look into the past, Jeff!(AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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Jeff Niemann is an interesting story heading into the season. Currently he's entrenched as the team's number three starter after a solid rookie season that saw him post a 4.07 FIP. That was much better than most of us thought he was capable of doing after winning the 5th starter role out of Spring Training, especially considering he struck out only 125 batters in 180.2IP. While I wish the best for Niemann in 2010, I can't help but be reminded of a pitcher who was in a similar position heading into last season and couldn't recapture the success he had previously tasted. His name is Andy Sonnanstine.

Both Niemann and Sonnanstine enjoyed success in the minor leagues, each posting sub-4 FIPs in each of their minor league stops before reaching the big show. Though their breakout seasons were a year apart, look at how similar they were:

2008 Sonnanstine:

13-9, 4.38 ERA/3.91 FIP, 5.77 K/9, 1.72 BB/9

2009 Niemann:

13-6, 3.94 ERA/4.07 FIP, 6.23 K/9, 2.94 BB/9

Not too much difference. Where Sonnanstine has an edge in FIP and BB/9, Niemann has the edge in ERA and K/9. Like Sonnanstine the year before, Niemann won the 5th starter battle out of training camp and doesn't have to worry about his rotation spot this time around. We all know how disappointing Sonnanstine's 2009 season was looking like he had channeled his inner Jose Lima for 18 starts. He would only start three more games after June 25th, eventually being replaced in the rotation by top prospect David Price. The Rays are in an eerily similar situation this season, with Jeremy Hellickson stowed away in a glass case only to be broken upon emergency.

Again, I wish the best for Niemann. He seems like a nice enough guy. Maybe its just because Spring Training bores the hell out of me, forcing me to find stories when there really aren't any, but I can't be the only getting deja vu about this, can I?

Hey cool dudes, it's your buddy, me. Now that the fantasy league is basically full, we need to discuss scoring.

The only things in stone are that it's roto, and that the draft is on the 29th at 9.

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More photos » Steve Nesius - AP

Mmmmmm, muscley armed cores. (AP Photo/Steve Nesius)

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With some of the recent results from Spring Training possibly clouding our judgment on players I thought it would be wise to step back and take another look at what the various projection systems think of our baseballers.  The methodology is quite simple, I used a weighted average of the Bill James, CHONE, & Marcel projection systems to come up with an estimate of wOBA.  I used Jeff Zimmerman's outrageously spectacular UZR Projections to come up with that component.  For replacement adjustments, I used the (20/600)*PA that Fangraphs uses at the link to the left. One caveat, the Rays, like a lot of teams, have guys that can play all over the diamond.  For these guys, I used either the position they've played the most in the past (Aybar) or where I think they will get the most playing time this season (Zobrist).  Additionally, the positional adjustments are based on 162 games played at a position (rare) and the UZR is based on 150 games played.  Feel free to download the excel file,   Rays 2010 Projected WAR
or follow along with this Google Doc.  Here is a summary with the position that each player was adjusted for:

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