More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Arnold has ties to newly-acquired Rays reliever, Ramon Ramirez.

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A few weeks ago, the Rays quietly (is there any other way the Rays announce things?) announced a couple staff moves for the upcoming season. One of the moves that intrigued me was the promotion of Matt Arnold to the newly created position of Director of Pro Scouting. This intrigued me for two reasons: First, I was unaware the team did not have a director in place already. And second, who is Matt Arnold?

Lucky for me, I was able to contact Matt and he is a fan of DRaysBay. He has spent the last three seasons with the Rays as a professional scout. This comes after his stint with the Cincinnati Reds as Associate Director of Pro Scouting. Before his time in Cincinnati, Arnold worked in the Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers front offices handing a variety of tasks; the Ben Zobrist of the front office, if you will. Matt was kind enough to grant me some time to pick his brain about his new job, his past experiences as a scout and...sabermetrics!

Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr. Matt Arnold...

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Carlos Pena was also reinstated from the 60-day DL. These moves are pretty much procedural. Jennings and Hellickson were going nowhere, and same with Torres -- although I don't believe he was eligible for this year's Rule 5.. This maxes out the 40-man and leaves a few notable players -- Aneury Rodriguez, Nevin Ashley, Ryan Reid, etc. -- unprotected from the Rule 5 draft barring further roster moves before tomorrow's deadline. Obviously you don't like the idea of Rodriguez being plucked, but the odds of him sticking on a 25 man roster for an entire season seem low.

It's time to get this off-season started.

Update: Torres was eligible. He signed with the Angels as a free agent in January 2005. That gives him five accrued minor league years without being on the 40 man.

Presser after the jump.

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More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

Yuni!!!

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I like how Fangraphs gives you convenient graphs showing how players have performed versus the league average over a long period of time, like so:

via www.fangraphs.com

Looks great, right?  Carlos is awesome compared to the league average over the last three years.  The problem comes in when you consider that he's a First Basemen.  Most of them should hit better than league average.  We can use positional adjustments to level the playing field, but I wanted to look at this in a different way.  My goal was to create a baseline for each position at the AL, NL, & MLB levels.  These baselines can be used at the player level, or as in this case, to see how a team stacked up at a position compared to the rest of the league. 

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More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

A re-enactment of the Cubs/Rays talks on Milton Bradley-for-Pat Burrell.

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BNightengale: #mlb The Tampa Bay #Rays have become the clear-cut favorite to acquire Milton Bradley

This seems to indicate there was a time when the Rays weren't the frontrunner to acquire Bradley. Everything that can be written about this potential swap has been written. Free agency starts tomorrow and today the Cubs re-signed John Grabow for $7M over two years. That should tell you two things: A) the Cubs have their checkbooks out and B) they aren't afraid to waste some money.  To be blunt, I'm tired of waiting on this thing to happen. I've got articles about how B.J. Upton is going to be a horrible influence on Bradley waiting to go. Just spend some cash and make the goat go away. That's how it works, right?

For those wondering, Burrell's CHONE projection is 10 runs worse than Bradley.

by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

My hero.

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Here's the thing about the minor league free agents list. You can spend literally an hour just checking out every name and tracing the prospect genesis of the ones you recognize and it never gets old. There's also a cognitive filter where any semi-interesting player gains a mention on the "Ooh I want!" list. Once promised pitchers will undoubtedly figure things out and hitters will either engage a girl with the last name Luck or invoke on a journey that begins with this:

Scene: Back alley of an abandoned warehouse

A man with a trench coat and extended black case raps on the door amidst the raspy coughing of a stray cat encountering a fur ball.

The warehouse door swings open with an abrupt thud and quickly the man scatters inside. Indoors, the case is handed to the new man while a stack of dollars is bagged and placed within the trench coat. The mystery man places the case on the table and undoes the latches, opening the case and removing shackles before revealing a fine wooden black baseball bat with an orange 25 engraved into the barrel.

Lifting the bat into the moonlight the new owner gasped ‘Gee willickers!" as he took an effortless practice cut or three and could feel the power surge through his veins. The trench coat man begins to make his way out of the door once again but stops at the door to administer a warning, "Look kid, this is the last one, make it last, okay?"

"Yes...yes sir. Good golly thanks a ton mister."

With that in mind, I've compiled a list of mildly intriguing relievers. The idea here is not to land a closer in his prime, but instead find an arm or two who can contribute when injuries and ineffective pitching hit the Rays pen. For this exercise I'm working with the assumption that these guys would take the standard minor league deal and would not require a 40 man roster spot.

Winston Abreu

Striking out nearly a third of the total batters you face indicates you do something well. Holding such a proportion when the sample size is closing in on 1,250 is remarkable. He throws hard. He seems to have a decent secondary offering.  In 44 Major League innings Abreu's contact rate is superior (72.1%) to league average (around 81%) and his issues are rooted almost entirely in home runs allowed. That issue does not show up throughout his minor league career and 44 innings is a tiny sample size stretched over four seasons. He received some shine last season to the tune of 128 pitches and was horrendous but for someone who took fewer dollars to return to the system after being designated for assignment by Cleveland, you have to think he's a lock for next year. A spring training invite is hardly a pyrrhic victory for the Rays.

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Nevin Ashley is a 25-year-old catcher for the Rays originally drafted in the 6th round of the 2006 draft out of Indiana State University. Ashley showed ability at the plate through his time in A ball, but began to see his power disappear soon after.   Ashley does possess surprising speed for a catcher as evidenced by his AFL leading four triples. Below is a snapshot of his career rates:

Despite run of the mill offensive numbers, Nevin Ashley was named as a 2009 Florida State League All-Star.  There is no question about his arm strength behind the dish as he gunned down a video game-like 48 of 101 (47.5%) base runners in 2009 between A+ and AA. As analysts, we don't have great measures available to evaluate catcher's game calling or defense. For this reason catcher defense is ignored altogether when evaluating Wins Above Replacement. Nonetheless, there's no denying it exists. If proof is needed, look at John Jaso's minor league offensive numbers and ask why he has had little to no shot with the big league club to date.

GIven the lack of information, its worth noting that Ashley was named the Rays Organizational Defensive Player of the Year Award. This seems like a true endorsement given the lack of measurable. For further subjective evaluation jsut ask Stephen Strasburg, the #1 overall pick this year, "Nevin Ashley (catcher Rays) did a great job calling the game. We were always on the same page. We knew to go to a sinker in those situations to get a ground ball." Desert Dogs Pitching Coach Paul Menhart ,when asked about catching Strasburg, chimed in, "Ashley caught his first outing and today's effort. They have had a good plan each time, a very aggressive plan."

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More photos » by Stephan Savoia - AP

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This has been a very odd week.

On Sunday night, about, eh, six hours before our interview with Andrew Friedman went up, Bill Belichick stole the hearts and minds (okay, some of the minds) of the sporting culture by deciding against punting. Whether you agree with the decision or not, the move was a mark of innovation in a league stricken with homogenous talents, payrolls, schemes, and thought processes. The move was outlandish and unconventional and absolutely beautiful because of it.

In some ways I fancy myself a masochist, so Monday night I chose to watch Sportscenter and the Monday Night Countdown programming by my own desire to see the reaction of the two dozen ESPN personalities. Most wrote the move off as moronic and foolish, others called out Belichick's ego, Teddy Bruschi said the defense would suffer from this decision, and so on. Ron Jaworski seemed to be the only person who dug beyond clichés or unquantifiable hyperbole in his explanation.

I promise this is related to the Rays, just give me a moment.

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by Duane Burleson - AP

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One of the larger topics this offseason has centered on what to do with Carl Crawford. Now that the Rays have picked up his $10 million dollar option they are left with a couple scenarios:  trading him now, trading him later, signing him to an extension, or let him walk and take the compensatory pick(s). While CC is and will remain the hot topic for the unforeseeable future, I have been wondering about the Rays other $10 million dollar man, Carlos Pena.

Honestly, I try and to not play favorites, but how can you not when it comes to Carlos Pena? Nevertheless, I've come to the realization that maybe in addition to Crawford, it's time to explore the possibility of a Pena move. Of course, one isn't really reliant on the other and both, one, or none of them could be traded anyway.

Obligatory disclaimer: This is merely speculation. The Rays haven't said they are actively shopping Pena.

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The front office will undoubtedly be faced with many tough decisions this winter.  We've discussed many of them; Crawford, the catcher situation, whether or not to trade Bartlett, etc.  One decision that won't be so tough is deciding which players to put on the 40 man roster, the deadline for which is Friday.

Currently the Rays have three open spots on their 40 man roster, with another one possible since Jeff Bennett is not likely to remain with the team.  There's no question that two of the roster spots will go to Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, two of the top prospects in the organization, and baseball in general.  As RJ noted a couple of months ago, the third spot will probably go to Aneury Rodriguez, the young reliever the Rays received in the Jason Hammel trade.  The remaining roster spot, assuming Jeff Bennett isn't still around, will likely remain open to leave room for any player the team selects in the Rule 5 draft. 

The organization has done many things right over the last few seasons, but Rule 5 draft has been one they have yet to figure out, though in their defense not many teams do.  Here is a list of the Rays Rule 5 draft picks since 2006:

2006:  Ryan Goleski

Goleski was selected first overall by the Rays, but would not stick around long and was sent back to Cleveland.  After a .249/.333/.429 season in 2008 he would be out of baseball at 26 years old.  The 2006 draft was the one that saw Josh Hamilton be claimed by the Reds after being left unprotected by the Rays.  Also, Joakim Soria was selected second overall.  He's ended up doing pretty well for himself.

2007: Tim Lehay

Once again the Rays would have the first selection, this time taking Tim Lahey.  The 6'4 inch right hander would be a quick out; The Rays sold him to the Twins for cash considerations.  No other players of note were taken in 2007.

2008: Derek Rodriguez

Upon the success of the 2008 season the Rays were finally not awarded the first pick.  Instead they selected 19th and chose reliever Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox.  Rodriguez would struggle in the spring and would be sold back to the White Sox for $25k.  In this draft the Rays would unexpectedly lose reliever Eduardo Morlan, who they had acquired along with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in the Delmon Young trade, to the Brewers.  However, Morlan would not make the Brewers roster and was sold back to the Rays for $25k, offsetting the cost of the Rodriguez deal.

As you can see, the Rule 5 draft has not been a very fruitful endeavor for the Rays in recent seasons, but that's ok.  Getting lucky enough to draft a Johan Santana or Joakim Soria is fine and dandy , but protecting immense talents like Jennings and Hellickson far out weighs any player the Rays may select. 

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Jaime Cevallos is a well known man around these parts. As co-star of the Zobrist code, he is widely credited for being part of the process that turned Ben Zobrist into Zorilla. Well if Cevallos is as good as advertised, we should be hearing a lot more from the "swing mechanic." In addition to working with Arizona Fall League breakout, Nevin Ashley, Cevallos has added Rays outfielder Justin Ruggiano to his growing roster of clients.

Ruggiano, 27, is pretty much at the same point in his career that Zobrist was when he and Cevallos connected. Never really a prospect, Ruggiano has accumulated nearly 100 unimpressive plate appearances with the Rays since 2007. He is mostly remembered for his fantastic game saving catch in late 2008 than anything at the plate.

A member of the Rays 40 man roster, Ruggiano, spent the entire 2009 season in the minors hitting .253/.330/.412. The .741 OPS is his lowest at any level (min .130 PA) since joining the Rays in 2006.With the urging of Zobrist, Ruggiano is hoping Cevallos can use his Mkanx system and get the most of out his stroke. "The difference between Jaime and other hitting coaches is that Jaime truly is a swing mechanic," said Ruggiano. "He has the ability to pick apart your swing and get you into the best possible hitting positions."

More on Ruggiano and The Swing Mechanic...

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