DRaysBay - All PostsA Tampa Bay Rays Blog: Ball on a Budgethttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48753/drb-logo-fv.png2024-03-18T12:55:16-04:00http://www.draysbay.com/rss/current/2024-03-18T12:55:16-04:002024-03-18T12:55:16-04:002024 DRaysBay Community Prospect List: Vote for No. 25
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<img alt="MiLB: AUG 08 FCL Orioles at FCL Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/3GrSIZjumqnABavdgSJ13nNexd4=/0x776:3648x3208/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73215535/1242393247.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Cole Wilcox lands at No. 24. </p> <h2 id="OTPCWT"><strong>Previous Winner</strong></h2>
<p id="jzVTbq"><strong>Cole Wilcox, RHP</strong><br><em>AA | 5.23 ERA, 106.2 IP (25 GS) 21.8% K, 9.7% BB</em></p>
<p id="u6ksA4">Wilcox’s first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2021 was muted, with his strikeouts lacking the expected mid-30’s rate. Perhaps that’s because his previous high-octane fastball that earned first round money from the Padres, before they sent him to the Rays in the Snell trade, barely scratches 94 these days. Good pitchers adjust, and the new version of Wilcox was working on a groundballer’s sinker/slider approach in 2023. He’s got a starter’s frame and the breaking ball plays, but it’s an open question as to whether it’s still a major league profile or just a projection of his pedigree.</p>
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<p id="bVsTRM">I doubt it matters, but it’s interesting to me that 44 pitchers have gotten reps this Spring on the major league squad, and Wilcox has not been one of them, perhaps because the Rays pitching lab has been working with him? Whatever the case, expect Wilcox to meet Triple-A this season. Next round adds OF Shane Sasaki. </p>
<h3 id="7tnpjp"><strong>Rules</strong></h3>
<p id="MYuEkB">There will be a selection of players listed in the comments. To vote, reply to the player’s name with a +1 in the comment. For the best voting experience, <em>filter the comment section by Oldest.</em></p>
<p id="w17TEr">Please vote using whichever criteria you prefer! If you like stats, use stats. If you like scouting reports, reference those reports. There’s no one right way to do this — that’s what makes this exercise fun.</p>
<p id="95shRX"><em>If you want to vote for a player who is not listed</em>, there will be an “Others” comment. Reply to that comment with the name of your selection. This is incredibly rare because there will eventually be up to 10 players to choose from, but it’s possible a player you feel strongly about slipped through the cracks.</p>
<p id="cEFJry"><em>If you want to nominate a player to be included in the next poll</em>, reply to the “Testers” comment with that player’s name. We will often limit the number of players accepted for the next poll to prevent the list from becoming cumbersome. All players in one poll who do not win the vote are automatically included in the next poll — there is no need to re-nominate.</p>
<p id="ddIZli">Voting will go live on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week.</p>
<h3 id="cw560F"><strong>Candidates</strong></h3>
<p id="A4oMJV"><strong>Carlos Colmenarez, SS</strong><br><em>Rk-A | .211/.349/.313 (.661 OPS, 96 wRC+ in A) 370 PA, 6 HR, 10 SB</em></p>
<p id="RK1eek">There was a time Colmenarez was viewed as the heir to Wander Franco’s hype, but that has all but died, and not just because Colmenarez reported stateside <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-get-small-hundreds-of-minor-leaguers-have-shrunk/">4 inches shorter</a> than expected. Viewed by some as the top prospect in the 2020 international recruiting class, and signed for a $3 million bonus, it’s been a rough showing in his professional career. A broken hamate kept Colmenarez almost completely off the field in 2021, and a tendency to strikeout reared its ugly head in 2022 that carried into 2023 with a a 38.2 K%. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see what level the Rays place him in his age-20 season. The organization has an opening at A+ for shortstop, but will his bat be ready? Whatever the result, athletic shortstops hitting from the left side are to be desired in any system, so there’s still hope he might offer value as he climbs the ladder. </p>
<p id="6eggrl"><strong>Marcus Johnson, RHP</strong><br><em>A | 3.74 ERA, 130.0 IP (26 G, 24 GS) 21.3% K, 3.8% BB</em></p>
<p id="hNOqch">The Rays acquired Johnson shortly after he was drafted 112th overall by the Marlins in 2022 in a trade deadline deal that cleared 40-man roster space by sending Xavier Edwards to Miami. He was a projectable, 6’6” starter in the draft but had a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mae7JZyFmg">short stride</a> in his delivery that didn’t seem to take full advantage of his size. In reviewing tape from <a href="https://twitter.com/jnorris427/status/1682446332148043786">2023</a>, I’m not sure the Rays have changed much about his delivery (it’s possible he’s releasing closer to the plate, but the stride seems unchanged); the results came anyway. He’s got low mileage on his arm, having been a starter only one season for Duke, and has a breaking ball and change up that play. </p>
<p id="CzngIK"><strong>Jacob Lopez, LHP</strong><br><em>AA | 2.57 ERA, 28.0 IP (8 G, 6 GS) 45 K, 9 BB</em><br><em>AAA | 2.72 ERA, 79.1 IP (18 GS) 26.0% K, 14.0% BB</em><br><em>MLB | 4.38 ERA, 12.1 IP (4 G, 1 GS) 8 K, 2 BB</em></p>
<p id="Gtgdqp">Lopez missed 2022 for Tommy John surgery, but rode the shuttle to the big leagues when he returned in 2023. Like most system southpaws, he’s a deception lefty with low velo stuff, and with a 2-seam/slider combo that plays in the lower third. He has a change, but lacks a third pitch vs lefties. It’s unlikely the Rays see a starter in his stuff, but his utility as an up-and-down bulk guy will keep him on your television screen this season. As for whether he could be something more, Lopez gets great extension and spins some quality armside run, so who knows what the Rays pitching lab could cook up for him. </p>
<p id="NHRiWx"><strong>Tanner Murray, 2B/3B</strong><br><em>AA | .256/.345/.438 (.783 OPS, 110 wRC+) 200 PA, 5 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="4l4eNc">In 2022, Murray got a handful of games in the AFL after a strong showing at Class-A (151 wRC+) and an average showing in A+ (100 wRC+), but it’s not clear that the Rays knew what to do with the 2020 4th rounder out of UC Davis. To start 2023 he bounced between A+ and Triple-A, perhaps to meet a roster need, but was injured just 9 games into his season on a play at second base. He returned mid-July and the Rays sent him to Double-A, where he worked a utility-style infield rotation but mostly settled in at second base. He’s got <a href="https://twitter.com/DurhamBulls/status/1650204056176979968">sure hands</a> and good plate discipline, but it’s a <a href="https://twitter.com/DurhamBulls/status/1649567420233789440">quiet swing</a> without the power you’d expect for his position. </p>
<p id="F16iw0"><strong>Kenny Piper, C</strong><br><em>A+ | .216/.333/.458 (.791, 115 wRC+) 270 PA, 13 HR, 3 SB</em><br><em>AA | .293/.389/.610 (.999 OPS, 160 wRC+) 95 PA, 7 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="bPbGBK">Where most hitters struggle the most when promoted to Double-A, Piper found a power stroke and went on a tear in his age-24 season once promoted to Montgomery, belting 7 HR in less than a hundred plate appearances. Was it simply a hot streak, or a legitimate improvement? We’ll have to find out. As an 18th round draft pick from 2021, Piper will be Rule 5 eligible at the end of this season, so time is of the essence. The draw here is plus power. His long swing is cocked and ready, and has enough speed to belt them to all fields. </p>
<p id="nHkgKd"><strong>Shane Sasaki, OF</strong><br><em>A+ | .301/.375/.465 (.840 OPS, 130 wRC+) 293 PA, 5 HR, 12 SB</em></p>
<p id="IRz0LL">Coming off a strong performance in the Arizona Fall League, where he went 13-for-13 in stolen bases, Sasaki was assigned to High-A, where his “polished” swing faired well yet again. Entering his age-23 season, the expectation will be that continues with Double-A. Like teammates Baker and Auer, his right handedness will profile him more for a bench role, particularly if he stays in center field. Sasaki may be held back from the position due to his arm. </p>
<p id="yFC1z5"><strong>Bob Seymour, 1B</strong><br><em>A+ | .310/.391/.556 (.947 OPS, 154 wRC+) 248 PA, 13 HR, 1 SB</em><br><em>AA | .343/.443/.537 (.980 OPS, 165 wRC+) 79 PA, 4 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="HcCrq8">Once the 2019 ACC player of the year, 25-year old Seymour is a 2021 late round senior our of Wake Forest who has performed well at every level, even though he might be considered a late bloomer. His left handed swing has power to all fields, and didn’t take a step back even when making the transition to Double-A. He’s limited to first base defensively, and is considered a below average runner, but you can’t deny he has impressed with his offense, earning Player of the Month honors in June. </p>
<p id="ijhkco"><strong>Ronny Simón, 2B/SS</strong><br>AA | .240/.323/.391 (.714 OPS, 91 wRC+) 416 PA, 10 HR, 26 SB<br>AAA | .282/.380/.427 (.807 OPS, 107 wRC+) 137 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB</p>
<p id="zKRrdG">Acquired from the Diamondbacks ahead of the 2022 season for Jordon Luplow, Simón gets most of his play at second base, but has potential as a switch-hitting utility player if his defense continues to improve, or could settle in as a solid starter at second base. This off-season, Simón played a starring role for the Dominican’s Toros Del Este, where he led the league in both AVG (.323) and OBP (.432). His best attribute is his speed on the base paths, and entering his age-24 season is starting to develop real<a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/ronny-simon-s-two-run-home-run-x1354"> in-game power</a> (not for lack of trying, despite a diminutive size). It’s a high-effort, linear swing, but thanks to some added patience it’s starting to come together for a player who’s been Rule 5 eligible two off-seasons running. </p>
<p id="g8YsRi"><strong>Willy Vasquez, 3B</strong><br><em>A+ | .233/.310/.393 (.703 OPS, 93 wRC+) 472 PA, 16 HR, 17 SB</em></p>
<p id="m1cQwx">In another life, Vasquez is in Caminero’s shoes, but back-to-back seasons hitting under 100 wRC+ have dimmed the bright light of his other tools. Either his long swing needs reinvention, or he needs to prove himself against advanced pitching, as time is running out. Despite some struggles hitting for average at Class- and High-A these last two seasons, a trip to Double-A is next, and an opportunity to prove he’s worth addition to the 40-man roster next year. If he figures it out, the rest of his tools give a major league projection for an infield role. </p>
<p id="8vStxn"><strong>Colby White, RHP</strong><br><em>Rk | 2 ER, 10.1 IP | (11 G) 12 SO, 11 BB</em><br><em>A+ | 2 ER, 5.0 IP (5 G) 4 K, 2 BB</em><br><em>AA | 0 ER, 6.2 IP (8 G) 8 K, 4 BB</em></p>
<p id="WC3bfp">Relief-only prospect White returned from Tommy John surgery (due to an elbow fracture at the ligament) mid-way through 2023 after missing all of the previous season, and in total threw 22.0 IP with a 1.64 ERA across three levels. His potential as a high-leverage reliever is sky high, so much so that Tampa Bay added him to the 40-man roster last off-season to ensure he was not poached, despite being unable to pitch at the time. His game prior to the surgery was a 70-grade rising fastball and an above average power slider, but Marc Topkin reports he now boasts two breaking balls that Kyle Snyder calls, “better off-speed pitches than he’s ever featured before.” </p>
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https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/18/24104936/2024-draysbay-community-prospect-list-vote-for-no-25Daniel Russell2024-03-18T12:15:00-04:002024-03-18T12:15:00-04:00Stuart Sternberg on payroll: Rays will take “real losses” in 2024
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<figcaption>Rays principal owner Stu Sternberg during the press conference to announce a tentative agreement with the City of St. Petersburg and Pinellas County for a new stadium. | Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Threatens to “pull back” financing in 2025 if this year’s team doesn’t perform well. </p> <p id="0hgdLs"><a href="https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2024/03/16/why-is-rays-payroll-record-heights-keep-this-rolling/">Marc Topkin’s Sunday Column</a> featured the annual salary bemoaning we expect from the Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, but this time it came with a threat! </p>
<p id="maEt5D">After noting the Rays saved $33 million by trading Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot to the Dodgers, Topkin shared these thoughts on the Rays payroll that inches north of $90 million to start this season: </p>
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<p id="GnmIDv">Principal owner Stuart Sternberg said the hike doesn’t come easily. “I’m swallowing more than hard because it’s going to lead to real losses this year,” he said.</p>
<p id="4HQPeU">But he said he is willing to do so for what, ultimately, is a good reason.</p>
<p id="ntv1079507-589706-90999">“I’d like to keep this rolling at this point,” he said. “Certainly, if we can.”</p>
<p id="L6JZfp">The Rays have made the playoffs the last five seasons, which only three other teams have done, and want to extend that streak while avoiding being eliminated in their first round like the last three years.</p>
<p id="uqSEhN">“We think this is, like, our sort of time, and we don’t know if we’re going to have this opportunity in a year or two,” said Sternberg, noting If they don’t win this year, they could “pull back” for 2025, which adds to the stakes.</p>
<p id="FEgAbU">[...]</p>
<p id="dlnzqT">“The arrows are pointing up across the board right now,” he said. “So I wanted to make sure we gave it a chance to continue to grow, and see if we can get things up to a point. And I’ll feel even better when we get the stadium deal done, and we just roll right into that.”</p>
<p id="ADLqyu">[<a href="https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2024/03/16/why-is-rays-payroll-record-heights-keep-this-rolling/">tampabay.com</a>]</p>
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<p id="xkyEvg">It’s probably not worth breaking down the comments overall — if you think the Rays are a loss-leader, why wouldn’t they be sold off by now? — but it’s what we’ve got.</p>
<p id="S7o5gi">First up is the comment that this year is “going to lead to real losses” for the Rays. We assume he means financial losses, not win/loss results. Is it reasonable to think the Rays will lose money because they pay Randy Arozarena $8.1 million? </p>
<p id="jD3Ya8">No. </p>
<p id="m073Ke">In fact, it’s stands to reason that Randy’s existence on the team drives ticket sales generally as the most exciting player on the team (even if he wasn’t the “face” on <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1768689206690291844">this year’s media guide</a>...) and the only one with a multi-section portion of the stadium named after him for Friday home games. </p>
<p id="QcK8Eu">Second is the comment that, “We think this is, like, our sort of time.” How would you feel if your boss thought you had a chance to “sort of” have a good year, but also thought the clock was ticking on your ability to do well, especially after so many seasons of putting up quality results with little funding? </p>
<p id="W3FeqL">If Sternberg thinks the future is bleak, does that mean Erik Neander is on the hot seat? If you’re answer to that question is “No,” then what do you think defines success for the Rays front office, or the organization generally? </p>
<p id="kaqIUm">Next is the real threat: the idea that the Rays might “pull back” on payroll spending if this year doesn’t end in a playoff run. As if he was not already intent on trading players like Eflin (whose salary jumps from $11 million to $18 million next season), or any of the other players in line for eight-figure incomes. Arozarena should be around $12 million, Brandon Lowe and Jeffrey Springs $10.5 million each, and Yandy Diaz will make $10 million. </p>
<p id="51VJkU">What does it mean to “pull back” other than to trade the name-brand assets? </p>
<p id="KS2CRL">Sternberg’s printed comments end with a semi-promise that he will feel better about taking these financial losses “when we get the stadium deal done” but at this point, what good do any of these comments do what the St. Petersburg City Council is <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/news/st-petersburg/2024/03/14/rays-stadium-deal-not-done-yet-with-st-petersburg-city-council/">split </a>on approving the stadium deal at all?</p>
<p id="1710777790.549899">What the Rays owner <em>should </em>be saying — dare I say it — goes something like this: “We are running a higher payroll than I might prefer from a pure business standpoint because I am so enthusiastic about this team.”</p>
<p id="1710777792.865659">End of discussion! </p>
<p id="NGrMGx">Who is he threatening here, and why does he think it gets him anything?</p>
<p id="ZMQeDn">Is he threatening fans? Well we have no control over the product on the field. And if he’s meaning to address the subset of fans in Pinellas county who control the purse strings, threatening to field an uncompetitive team is an odd way to show he’s committed to supporting the organization that wants to control 80+ acres of downtown St. Pete. </p>
<p id="1710777869.321679">Is he threatening players? The Rays standard operating procedure is to trade them when they get expensive even if the team does win or make the playoffs. Also, they all <em>want</em> to play well and win. They are professionals. They don’t need his threats of getting traded to perform well. </p>
<p id="j32TsJ">Is he threatening the front office? The Rays have never fired a head of baseball operations since Sternberg took over the team. Indeed, the only poor performer was simply moved to another part of the organization to be co-president of business operations. </p>
<p id="hD8dQ7">We appreciate Stu Sternberg the baseball fan, who seems as excited by great plays as we are. But his annual spring ritual of bemoaning his alleged financial losses and issuing threats is one Tampa Bay baseball tradition we would love to see retired. </p>
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https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/18/24104865/stuart-sternberg-on-payroll-rays-will-take-real-losses-in-2024Daniel Russell2024-03-15T15:00:00-04:002024-03-15T15:00:00-04:002024 DRaysBay Community Prospect List: Vote for No. 24
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<p>Dru Baker lands at 23. </p> <h2 id="1G5ZHt"><strong>Previous Winner</strong></h2>
<p id="ucnXoP"><strong>Dru Baker, OF</strong><br><em>A+ | .307/.396/.491 (.887 OPS, 144 wRC+) 377 PA, 13 HR, 38 SB</em><br><em>AA | .287/.346/.417 (.763 OPS, 105 wRC+) 127 PA, 1 HR, 11 SB</em></p>
<p id="gWu4Y7">Back to back seasons the Rays promoted 2021 4th rounder Baker mid-season after he dominated his level, and both times he turned in a league average performance at the next level. From a tools perspective, he’s a right handed Colton Ledbetter that trades exit velo for more stole bases. His defense has projection in center, but he needs to keep the strikeouts down as he continues to climb the ladder. His easiest path to the majors is in a bench role. </p>
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<p id="xoTBit">Baker and his “game changing speed” lands at No. 23 on our list, with a high floor profile that should allow him to play some role on the Rays roster eventually. The next round adds... Bobby Seymour?? </p>
<h3 id="7tnpjp"><strong>Rules</strong></h3>
<p id="MYuEkB">There will be a selection of players listed in the comments. To vote, reply to the player’s name with a +1 in the comment. For the best voting experience, <em>filter the comment section by Oldest.</em></p>
<p id="w17TEr">Please vote using whichever criteria you prefer! If you like stats, use stats. If you like scouting reports, reference those reports. There’s no one right way to do this — that’s what makes this exercise fun.</p>
<p id="95shRX"><em>If you want to vote for a player who is not listed</em>, there will be an “Others” comment. Reply to that comment with the name of your selection. This is incredibly rare because there will eventually be up to 10 players to choose from, but it’s possible a player you feel strongly about slipped through the cracks.</p>
<p id="cEFJry"><em>If you want to nominate a player to be included in the next poll</em>, reply to the “Testers” comment with that player’s name. We will often limit the number of players accepted for the next poll to prevent the list from becoming cumbersome. All players in one poll who do not win the vote are automatically included in the next poll — there is no need to re-nominate.</p>
<p id="ddIZli">Voting will go live on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week.</p>
<h3 id="cw560F"><strong>Candidates</strong></h3>
<p id="A4oMJV"><strong>Carlos Colmenarez, SS</strong><br><em>Rk-A | .211/.349/.313 (.661 OPS, 96 wRC+ in A) 370 PA, 6 HR, 10 SB</em></p>
<p id="RK1eek">There was a time Colmenarez was viewed as the heir to Wander Franco’s hype, but that has all but died, and not just because Colmenarez reported stateside <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-get-small-hundreds-of-minor-leaguers-have-shrunk/">4 inches shorter</a> than expected. Viewed by some as the top prospect in the 2020 international recruiting class, and signed for a $3 million bonus, it’s been a rough showing in his professional career. A broken hamate kept Colmenarez almost completely off the field in 2021, and a tendency to strikeout reared its ugly head in 2022 that carried into 2023 with a a 38.2 K%. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see what level the Rays place him in his age-20 season. The organization has an opening at A+ for shortstop, but will his bat be ready? Whatever the result, athletic shortstops hitting from the left side are to be desired in any system, so there’s still hope he might offer value as he climbs the ladder. </p>
<p id="6eggrl"><strong>Marcus Johnson, RHP</strong><br><em>A | 3.74 ERA, 130.0 IP (26 G, 24 GS) 21.3% K, 3.8% BB</em></p>
<p id="hNOqch">The Rays acquired Johnson shortly after he was drafted 112th overall by the Marlins in 2022 in a trade deadline deal that cleared 40-man roster space by sending Xavier Edwards to Miami. He was a projectable, 6’6” starter in the draft but had a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mae7JZyFmg">short stride</a> in his delivery that didn’t seem to take full advantage of his size. In reviewing tape from <a href="https://twitter.com/jnorris427/status/1682446332148043786">2023</a>, I’m not sure the Rays have changed much about his delivery (it’s possible he’s releasing closer to the plate, but the stride seems unchanged); the results came anyway. He’s got low mileage on his arm, having been a starter only one season for Duke, and has a breaking ball and change up that play. </p>
<p id="CzngIK"><strong>Jacob Lopez, LHP</strong><br><em>AA | 2.57 ERA, 28.0 IP (8 G, 6 GS) 45 K, 9 BB</em><br><em>AAA | 2.72 ERA, 79.1 IP (18 GS) 26.0% K, 14.0% BB</em><br><em>MLB | 4.38 ERA, 12.1 IP (4 G, 1 GS) 8 K, 2 BB</em></p>
<p id="Gtgdqp">Lopez missed 2022 for Tommy John surgery, but rode the shuttle to the big leagues when he returned in 2023. Like most system southpaws, he’s a deception lefty with low velo stuff, and with a 2-seam/slider combo that plays in the lower third. He has a change, but lacks a third pitch vs lefties. It’s unlikely the Rays see a starter in his stuff, but his utility as an up-and-down bulk guy will keep him on your television screen this season. As for whether he could be something more, Lopez gets great extension and spins some quality armside run, so who knows what the Rays pitching lab could cook up for him. </p>
<p id="NHRiWx"><strong>Tanner Murray, 2B/3B</strong><br><em>AA | .256/.345/.438 (.783 OPS, 110 wRC+) 200 PA, 5 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="4l4eNc">In 2022, Murray got a handful of games in the AFL after a strong showing at Class-A (151 wRC+) and an average showing in A+ (100 wRC+), but it’s not clear that the Rays knew what to do with the 2020 4th rounder out of UC Davis. To start 2023 he bounced between A+ and Triple-A, perhaps to meet a roster need, but was injured just 9 games into his season on a play at second base. He returned mid-July and the Rays sent him to Double-A, where he worked a utility-style infield rotation but mostly settled in at second base. He’s got <a href="https://twitter.com/DurhamBulls/status/1650204056176979968">sure hands</a> and good plate discipline, but it’s a <a href="https://twitter.com/DurhamBulls/status/1649567420233789440">quiet swing</a> without the power you’d expect for his position. </p>
<p id="F16iw0"><strong>Kenny Piper, C</strong><br><em>A+ | .216/.333/.458 (.791, 115 wRC+) 270 PA, 13 HR, 3 SB</em><br><em>AA | .293/.389/.610 (.999 OPS, 160 wRC+) 95 PA, 7 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="bPbGBK">Where most hitters struggle the most when promoted to Double-A, Piper found a power stroke and went on a tear in his age-24 season once promoted to Montgomery, belting 7 HR in less than a hundred plate appearances. Was it simply a hot streak, or a legitimate improvement? We’ll have to find out. As an 18th round draft pick from 2021, Piper will be Rule 5 eligible at the end of this season, so time is of the essence. The draw here is plus power. His long swing is cocked and ready, and has enough speed to belt them to all fields. </p>
<p id="yFC1z5"><strong>Bob Seymour, 1B</strong><br><em>A+ | .310/.391/.556 (.947 OPS, 154 wRC+) 248 PA, 13 HR, 1 SB</em><br><em>AA | .343/.443/.537 (.980 OPS, 165 wRC+) 79 PA, 4 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="HcCrq8">Once the 2019 ACC player of the year, 25-year old Seymour is a 2021 late round senior our of Wake Forest who has performed well at every level, even though he might be considered a late bloomer. His left handed swing has power to all fields, and didn’t take a step back even when making the transition to Double-A. He’s limited to first base defensively, and is considered a below average runner, but you can’t deny he has impressed with his offense, earning Player of the Month honors in June. </p>
<p id="ijhkco"><strong>Ronny Simón, 2B/SS</strong><br>AA | .240/.323/.391 (.714 OPS, 91 wRC+) 416 PA, 10 HR, 26 SB<br>AAA | .282/.380/.427 (.807 OPS, 107 wRC+) 137 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB</p>
<p id="zKRrdG">Acquired from the Diamondbacks ahead of the 2022 season for Jordon Luplow, Simón gets most of his play at second base, but has potential as a switch-hitting utility player if his defense continues to improve, or could settle in as a solid starter at second base. This off-season, Simón played a starring role for the Dominican’s Toros Del Este, where he led the league in both AVG (.323) and OBP (.432). His best attribute is his speed on the base paths, and entering his age-24 season is starting to develop real<a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/ronny-simon-s-two-run-home-run-x1354"> in-game power</a> (not for lack of trying, despite a diminutive size). It’s a high-effort, linear swing, but thanks to some added patience it’s starting to come together for a player who’s been Rule 5 eligible two off-seasons running. </p>
<p id="g8YsRi"><strong>Willy Vasquez, 3B</strong><br><em>A+ | .233/.310/.393 (.703 OPS, 93 wRC+) 472 PA, 16 HR, 17 SB</em></p>
<p id="m1cQwx">In another life, Vasquez is in Caminero’s shoes, but back-to-back seasons hitting under 100 wRC+ have dimmed the bright light of his other tools. Either his long swing needs reinvention, or he needs to prove himself against advanced pitching, as time is running out. Despite some struggles hitting for average at Class- and High-A these last two seasons, a trip to Double-A is next, and an opportunity to prove he’s worth addition to the 40-man roster next year. If he figures it out, the rest of his tools give a major league projection for an infield role. </p>
<p id="8vStxn"><strong>Colby White, RHP</strong><br><em>Rk | 2 ER, 10.1 IP | (11 G) 12 SO, 11 BB</em><br><em>A+ | 2 ER, 5.0 IP (5 G) 4 K, 2 BB</em><br><em>AA | 0 ER, 6.2 IP (8 G) 8 K, 4 BB</em></p>
<p id="WC3bfp">Relief-only prospect White returned from Tommy John surgery (due to an elbow fracture at the ligament) mid-way through 2023 after missing all of the previous season, and in total threw 22.0 IP with a 1.64 ERA across three levels. His potential as a high-leverage reliever is sky high, so much so that Tampa Bay added him to the 40-man roster last off-season to ensure he was not poached, despite being unable to pitch at the time. His game prior to the surgery was a 70-grade rising fastball and an above average power slider, but Marc Topkin reports he now boasts two breaking balls that Kyle Snyder calls, “better off-speed pitches than he’s ever featured before.” </p>
<p id="jzVTbq"><strong>Cole Wilcox, RHP</strong><br><em>AA | 5.23 ERA, 106.2 IP (25 GS) 21.8% K, 9.7% BB</em></p>
<p id="u6ksA4">Wilcox’s first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2021 was muted, with his strikeouts lacking the expected mid-30’s rate. Perhaps that’s because his previous high-octane fastball that earned first round money from the Padres, before they sent him to the Rays in the Snell trade, barely scratches 94 these days. Good pitchers adjust, and the new version of Wilcox was working on a groundballer’s sinker/slider approach in 2023. He’s got a starter’s frame and the breaking ball plays, but it’s an open question as to whether it’s still a major league profile or just a projection of his pedigree.</p>
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https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/15/24102189/2024-draysbay-community-prospect-list-vote-for-no-24Daniel Russell2024-03-15T09:22:58-04:002024-03-15T09:22:58-04:00Tampa Bay Rays sign RHP Jake Odorizzi to a minor league deal
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<p>With a spot opening up in the rotation, Odorizzi has a shot at making the Rays Opening Day roster</p> <p id="QLmey0">The Tampa Bay Rays have signed veteran hurler and former Ray, RHP Jake Odorizzi, to a minor league deal.</p>
<p id="ztYjU9">Odorizzi, who will turn 34 in just a few weeks, returns to the Rays for his 12th season in the big leagues, after a well paid jaunt across three franchises over the last three years. </p>
<p id="hHDS47">Entering the 2021 season, Odorizzi signed a two-year, $23.5 million deal with the Houston Astros that included a $12.5 million player option if he made 30 starts (he’d make 46). Houston would trade Odorizzi to the Braves mid-way through 2022, and then get sent to the Rangers ahead of the 2023 season, meaning he was part of a roster that got a ring in all three seasons of that deal (ALCS 2021, WS 2022, WS 2023). </p>
<p id="W58f5m">Unfortunately for Odorizzi, he would require arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder before the season began. He held a showcase earlier this off-season with 10-12 teams in attendance to demonstrate his stuff is back. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Odorizzi said he is healthy, has been throwing for teams during offseason, was seeking a major-league deal, but familiarity with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rays</a>, and opportunity caused by Bradley situation, led to agreement on minor league deal</p>— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1768624934857621938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 15, 2024</a>
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<p id="Ef8krs">Joel Sherman <a href="https://twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/1768628950660526221">reports</a> that Odorizzi will be earn $1.5m if he makes the 26-man roster, with $500k bonuses for reaching 25, 50, 75, 100 and 150 innings this season.</p>
<p id="7SBdmS">Originally selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, Odorizzi would be part of two trades that involved the face of the franchise ace pitchers (Zach Greinke in 2010 and James Shields in 2012) before cementing himself as part of the Rays big league rotation in 2013.</p>
<p id="qlypFk">After enduring some growing pains over his first few seasons, Odorizzi strung together some solid campaigns. Odorizzi’s tenure with the Rays came to an unceremonious end after the hurler endured the worst season of his career in 2017. The Rays would promptly trade Odorizzi during Spring Training in 2018 to the Minnesota Twins. It was while with the Twins that Odorizzi would have the best two seasons of his career and was named an All-Star in 2019.</p>
<p id="gWVkfX">Following his breakout season, Odorizzi would endure a litany of injuries in 2020, including one from a linedrive that struck him in the chest. In the abbreviated 60 game season, Odorizzi pitched in just six games and produced abysmal results, but that didn’t prevent him from signing his three-year deal that paid out $36 million over the last three seasons. </p>
<p id="E4LzKK">After not throwing a pitch in 2023, he now joins the Rays, who have suddenly found themselves in need of a starting pitcher due to Taj Bradley starting the season on the Injured List. </p>
<p id="oXaM4m">Odorizzi joins a battle for a final roster spot that includes Naoyuki Uwasawa, Brendan McKay, Jacob Lopez, and NRI Jacob Waguespack, who was a closer overseas the last two seasons.</p>
<p id="X8mkae">Opening Day is just two weeks away.</p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/15/24101703/tampa-bay-rays-sign-rhp-jake-odorizzi-to-a-minor-league-dealAdam SanfordDaniel Russell2024-03-13T14:05:46-04:002024-03-13T14:05:46-04:002024 DRaysBay Community Prospect List: Vote for No. 23
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<img alt="MLB: Spring Training-New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Z_js9x1Cc6G5VAVp517VDZgNzq8=/0x0:5472x3648/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73204528/usa_today_22634802.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Trevor Martin is feeling 22.</p> <h2 id="li4i9i"><strong>Previous Winner</strong></h2>
<p id="lQzoKo"><strong>Trevor Martin, RHP</strong><br><em>A | 3.52 ERA, 110.0 IP (25 G, 22 GS) 28.7% K, 9.0% BB</em></p>
<p id="FXKPP0">2022 third round selection Trevor Martin was drafted with the profile of a high octane reliever, with a fastball up to 98 for Oklahoma State. He made only seven starts across his two seasons prior to draft eligibility, but showed up at the right time in the playoffs to turn heads with 16 K’s in 6.2 IP before the Rays selected him 104th overall. His emergence as a starter was a mild surprise, but the big bodied, 6’5” starter was up for task, becoming the first qualified Charleston pitcher to lead the team in ERA, strikeouts and wins since 2017. Tampa Bay clearly believes in him, giving him a start in the first week of Spring Training this year, where he struck out Cedric Mullins on three pitches (two swinging). (<a href="https://twitter.com/reillocity/status/1561878821317611521/video/1">video</a>) </p>
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<p id="ZHQKuO">Voting took a big step back for the first time, which is usually a sign the quality of prospect might have found its next drop off. Nevertheless, the winner was the usual volume, with Martin taking the crown. Next round adds Kenny the Piper. </p>
<h3 id="7tnpjp"><strong>Rules</strong></h3>
<p id="MYuEkB">There will be a selection of players listed in the comments. To vote, reply to the player’s name with a +1 in the comment. For the best voting experience, <em>filter the comment section by Oldest.</em></p>
<p id="w17TEr">Please vote using whichever criteria you prefer! If you like stats, use stats. If you like scouting reports, reference those reports. There’s no one right way to do this — that’s what makes this exercise fun.</p>
<p id="95shRX"><em>If you want to vote for a player who is not listed</em>, there will be an “Others” comment. Reply to that comment with the name of your selection. This is incredibly rare because there will eventually be up to 10 players to choose from, but it’s possible a player you feel strongly about slipped through the cracks.</p>
<p id="cEFJry"><em>If you want to nominate a player to be included in the next poll</em>, reply to the “Testers” comment with that player’s name. We will often limit the number of players accepted for the next poll to prevent the list from becoming cumbersome. All players in one poll who do not win the vote are automatically included in the next poll — there is no need to re-nominate.</p>
<p id="ddIZli">Voting will go live on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday each week.</p>
<h3 id="cw560F"><strong>Candidates</strong></h3>
<p id="ucnXoP"><strong>Dru Baker, OF</strong><br><em>A+ | .307/.396/.491 (.887 OPS, 144 wRC+) 377 PA, 13 HR, 38 SB</em><br><em>AA | .287/.346/.417 (.763 OPS, 105 wRC+) 127 PA, 1 HR, 11 SB</em></p>
<p id="gWu4Y7">Back to back seasons the Rays promoted 2021 4th rounder Baker mid-season after he dominated his level, and both times he turned in a league average performance at the next level. From a tools perspective, he’s a right handed Colton Ledbetter that trades exit velo for more stole bases. His defense has projection in center, but he needs to keep the strikeouts down as he continues to climb the ladder. His easiest path to the majors is in a bench role. </p>
<p id="A4oMJV"><strong>Carlos Colmenarez, SS</strong><br><em>Rk-A | .211/.349/.313 (.661 OPS, 96 wRC+ in A) 370 PA, 6 HR, 10 SB</em></p>
<p id="RK1eek">There was a time Colmenarez was viewed as the heir to Wander Franco’s hype, but that has all but died, and not just because Colmenarez reported stateside <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-get-small-hundreds-of-minor-leaguers-have-shrunk/">4 inches shorter</a> than expected. Viewed by some as the top prospect in the 2020 international recruiting class, and signed for a $3 million bonus, it’s been a rough showing in his professional career. A broken hamate kept Colmenarez almost completely off the field in 2021, and a tendency to strikeout reared its ugly head in 2022 that carried into 2023 with a a 38.2 K%. Accordingly, it will be interesting to see what level the Rays place him in his age-20 season. The organization has an opening at A+ for shortstop, but will his bat be ready? Whatever the result, athletic shortstops hitting from the left side are to be desired in any system, so there’s still hope he might offer value as he climbs the ladder. </p>
<p id="6eggrl"><strong>Marcus Johnson, RHP</strong><br><em>A | 3.74 ERA, 130.0 IP (26 G, 24 GS) 21.3% K, 3.8% BB</em></p>
<p id="hNOqch">The Rays acquired Johnson shortly after he was drafted 112th overall by the Marlins in 2022 in a trade deadline deal that cleared 40-man roster space by sending Xavier Edwards to Miami. He was a projectable, 6’6” starter in the draft but had a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Mae7JZyFmg">short stride</a> in his delivery that didn’t seem to take full advantage of his size. In reviewing tape from <a href="https://twitter.com/jnorris427/status/1682446332148043786">2023</a>, I’m not sure the Rays have changed much about his delivery (it’s possible he’s releasing closer to the plate, but the stride seems unchanged); the results came anyway. He’s got low mileage on his arm, having been a starter only one season for Duke, and has a breaking ball and change up that play. </p>
<p id="CzngIK"><strong>Jacob Lopez, LHP</strong><br><em>AA | 2.57 ERA, 28.0 IP (8 G, 6 GS) 45 K, 9 BB</em><br><em>AAA | 2.72 ERA, 79.1 IP (18 GS) 26.0% K, 14.0% BB</em><br><em>MLB | 4.38 ERA, 12.1 IP (4 G, 1 GS) 8 K, 2 BB</em></p>
<p id="Gtgdqp">Lopez missed 2022 for Tommy John surgery, but rode the shuttle to the big leagues when he returned in 2023. Like most system southpaws, he’s a deception lefty with low velo stuff, and with a 2-seam/slider combo that plays in the lower third. He has a change, but lacks a third pitch vs lefties. It’s unlikely the Rays see a starter in his stuff, but his utility as an up-and-down bulk guy will keep him on your television screen this season. As for whether he could be something more, Lopez gets great extension and spins some quality armside run, so who knows what the Rays pitching lab could cook up for him. </p>
<p id="NHRiWx"><strong>Tanner Murray, 2B/3B</strong><br><em>AA | .256/.345/.438 (.783 OPS, 110 wRC+) 200 PA, 5 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="4l4eNc">In 2022, Murray got a handful of games in the AFL after a strong showing at Class-A (151 wRC+) and an average showing in A+ (100 wRC+), but it’s not clear that the Rays knew what to do with the 2020 4th rounder out of UC Davis. To start 2023 he bounced between A+ and Triple-A, perhaps to meet a roster need, but was injured just 9 games into his season on a play at second base. He returned mid-July and the Rays sent him to Double-A, where he worked a utility-style infield rotation but mostly settled in at second base. He’s got <a href="https://twitter.com/DurhamBulls/status/1650204056176979968">sure hands</a> and good plate discipline, but it’s a <a href="https://twitter.com/DurhamBulls/status/1649567420233789440">quiet swing</a> without the power you’d expect for his position. </p>
<p id="F16iw0"><strong>Kenny Piper, C</strong><br><em>A+ | .216/.333/.458 (.791, 115 wRC+) 270 PA, 13 HR, 3 SB</em><br><em>AA | .293/.389/.610 (.999 OPS, 160 wRC+) 95 PA, 7 HR, 0 SB</em></p>
<p id="bPbGBK">Where most hitters struggle the most when promoted to Double-A, Piper found a power stroke and went on a tear in his age-24 season once promoted to Montgomery, belting 7 HR in less than a hundred plate appearances. Was it simply a hot streak, or a legitimate improvement? We’ll have to find out. As an 18th round draft pick from 2021, Piper will be Rule 5 eligible at the end of this season, so time is of the essence. The draw here is plus power. His long swing is cocked and ready, and has enough speed to belt them to all fields. </p>
<p id="ijhkco"><strong>Ronny Simón, 2B/SS</strong><br>AA | .240/.323/.391 (.714 OPS, 91 wRC+) 416 PA, 10 HR, 26 SB<br>AAA | .282/.380/.427 (.807 OPS, 107 wRC+) 137 PA, 3 HR, 5 SB</p>
<p id="zKRrdG">Acquired from the Diamondbacks ahead of the 2022 season for Jordon Luplow, Simón gets most of his play at second base, but has potential as a switch-hitting utility player if his defense continues to improve, or could settle in as a solid starter at second base. This off-season, Simón played a starring role for the Dominican’s Toros Del Este, where he led the league in both AVG (.323) and OBP (.432). His best attribute is his speed on the base paths, and entering his age-24 season is starting to develop real<a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/ronny-simon-s-two-run-home-run-x1354"> in-game power</a> (not for lack of trying, despite a diminutive size). It’s a high-effort, linear swing, but thanks to some added patience it’s starting to come together for a player who’s been Rule 5 eligible two off-seasons running. </p>
<p id="g8YsRi"><strong>Willy Vasquez, 3B</strong><br><em>A+ | .233/.310/.393 (.703 OPS, 93 wRC+) 472 PA, 16 HR, 17 SB</em></p>
<p id="m1cQwx">In another life, Vasquez is in Caminero’s shoes, but back-to-back seasons hitting under 100 wRC+ have dimmed the bright light of his other tools. Either his long swing needs reinvention, or he needs to prove himself against advanced pitching, as time is running out. Despite some struggles hitting for average at Class- and High-A these last two seasons, a trip to Double-A is next, and an opportunity to prove he’s worth addition to the 40-man roster next year. If he figures it out, the rest of his tools give a major league projection for an infield role. </p>
<p id="8vStxn"><strong>Colby White, RHP</strong><br><em>Rk | 2 ER, 10.1 IP | (11 G) 12 SO, 11 BB</em><br><em>A+ | 2 ER, 5.0 IP (5 G) 4 K, 2 BB</em><br><em>AA | 0 ER, 6.2 IP (8 G) 8 K, 4 BB</em></p>
<p id="WC3bfp">Relief-only prospect White returned from Tommy John surgery (due to an elbow fracture at the ligament) mid-way through 2023 after missing all of the previous season, and in total threw 22.0 IP with a 1.64 ERA across three levels. His potential as a high-leverage reliever is sky high, so much so that Tampa Bay added him to the 40-man roster last off-season to ensure he was not poached, despite being unable to pitch at the time. His game prior to the surgery was a 70-grade rising fastball and an above average power slider, but Marc Topkin reports he now boasts two breaking balls that Kyle Snyder calls, “better off-speed pitches than he’s ever featured before.” </p>
<p id="jzVTbq"><strong>Cole Wilcox, RHP</strong><br><em>AA | 5.23 ERA, 106.2 IP (25 GS) 21.8% K, 9.7% BB</em></p>
<p id="u6ksA4">Wilcox’s first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2021 was muted, with his strikeouts lacking the expected mid-30’s rate. Perhaps that’s because his previous high-octane fastball that earned first round money from the Padres, before they sent him to the Rays in the Snell trade, barely scratches 94 these days. Good pitchers adjust, and the new version of Wilcox was working on a groundballer’s sinker/slider approach in 2023. He’s got a starter’s frame and the breaking ball plays, but it’s an open question as to whether it’s still a major league profile or just a projection of his pedigree.</p>
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https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/13/24099755/2024-draysbay-community-prospect-list-vote-for-no-23Daniel Russell2024-03-13T10:11:58-04:002024-03-13T10:11:58-04:00Rays shut down Taj Bradley for 2 weeks
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<figcaption>Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>A pectoral strain will slow his start to the season, but isn’t great cause for concern.</p> <p id="NZ11P4">The Rays rotation took a blow yesterday when Taj Bradley was scratched from his Spring Training start with pectoral discomfort. </p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rays</a> Cash said Taj Bradley definitely won’t be ready to start season. Will be shut down from throwing for at least 2 weeks then need to build back up. Will consider several in camp options to replace him in rotation.</p>— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1767902732160028819?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2024</a>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Rays</a> Bradley said MRI showed a pec strain, and his return to throwing will be determined on a day to day basis. Said he was relieved it wasn’t an arm or shoulder issue.</p>— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1767889049375641758?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2024</a>
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<p id="89KAhz">The Rays have several option in camp who may be able to step into a rotation role. Most famous among them is veteran NPB starter Naoyuki Uwasawa, but with his adjustments to both the pitch clock and his repertoire, based on feedback from Snyder’s pitching lab, it’s not clear he’ll be ready to roll week 1. </p>
<p id="ZSlWxw">Also in camp are prospect Jacob Lopez, who got a brief call up last season in a primarily relief role, and the three stretched-out relievers Tyler Alexander, Chris Devenski, and Jacob Waguespack (NRI). </p>
<p id="CygBxW">On the whole, this isn’t all bad news for Bradley. The injury is minor and caught early, it’s not located in the problem areas (shoulder or elbow), and a late start to the season should lessen any concerns the Rays have about putting him on a pitch count this season after throwing ~140 innings total last year. </p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/13/24099454/rays-shut-down-taj-bradley-for-2-weeksDaniel Russell2024-03-12T09:21:46-04:002024-03-12T09:21:46-04:00Rays Your Voice: Predicting the Opening Day Roster
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<figcaption>Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>Who do you think breaks camp with the team? </p> <p id="JRtmx1">With the news that Jonny DeLuca will be sidelined for over a month and Junior Caminero will start the season in the minor leagues, we take a stab at predicting the Opening Day roster, a game which everyone in this space loves to play, no matter how frivolous it is. </p>
<p id="c4wCML">We also discuss some other injury news within the division, including Lucas Giolito’s 2024 season hanging in the balance as he undergoes elbow surgery on Tuesday, and Gerrit Cole getting an MRI after having difficulty “bouncing back,” between Spring Training outings according to his manager Aaron Boone. While we feel pretty confident about the Rays ability to absorb injuries due to their depth, how prepared are the other teams in the AL East to get through the slog of a full season? </p>
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https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/12/24098385/rays-your-voice-predicting-the-opening-day-rosterBrett RutherfordDarby Robinson2024-03-11T15:00:00-04:002024-03-11T15:00:00-04:00Should a referendum decide the Rays future in St. Petersburg?
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<p>Unfortunately, it’s complicated!</p> <p id="XanmcH">The Rays will be building a stadium and, with their partner Hines, redeveloping the large site around Tropicana Field with a big assist from local government, which is helping pay for the stadium and selling the surrounding land for what some claim is below market prices. </p>
<p id="LLlu1v">Critics of this deal have maintained that most St. Pete residents don’t want to see their tax dollars used this way, with some critics (l<a href="https://www.nohomerun.com/rays-hines-stadium-analysis">ike those behind the No Home Run site)</a> preferring to see a more market-driven approach to redevelopment. </p>
<p id="kI9Kpv">Councilman Richie Floyd has taken another approach, objecting to subsidizing businesses rather than using city funds and land to directly address resident needs. <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2024/03/07/st-pete-rays-hines-deal-is-just-more-failed-trickle-down-economics/">Floyd expressed these concerns in a recent <em>Tampa Bay Times </em>OpEd</a>. </p>
<p id="0ymX7l">Both sets of critics seem to agree on this: 1) the residents of St. Petersburg should be consulted in some form before committing to this plan, and 2) the most likely scenario — if they are asked — is that the majority would be against this plan.</p>
<p id="2IZwTn">But is consulting St. Pete residents either feasible or desirable? And would that consultation actually result in better policy? </p>
<h2 id="o4tD7v"><strong>How has the opposition polled the residents of St. Pete? </strong></h2>
<p id="dDC3fz">The League of Women Voters sponsored a survey [ed note: we regret having misstated the identity of the sponsors previously] intended to gauge popular sentiment about the proposed Rays/Hines redevelopment deal. They have touted these survey responses, which were on the whole negative about the city’s plans, but in fact their survey results are pretty much worthless. </p>
<p id="lrl14r">First, <a href="https://lwvspa.org/press-release-survey-of-st-petersburg-voters-shows-overwhelming-opposition-to-current-rays-stadium-deal/">although they emailed surveys to every registered voter in St. Petersburg (by their report, 36,461 valid emails) they received 779 responses.</a> A 2% response rate doesn’t exactly provide us with a statistically significant sample, especially when we know nothing about whether those 779 people were broadly representative of all St. Petersburg voters. </p>
<p id="w08pEd">The survey designers also asked extremely leading questions designed to elicit a preferred result; this survey resembles a “push poll” more than a real effort to assess public sentiment (you can see the full survey <a href="https://lwvspa.org/wp-content/uploads/LWVSPA-Stadium-Survey-022024.pdf">here</a>). This is a particularly poorly designed survey, but it raises the issue that how we frame survey questions, especially on complex issues, can easily shape survey outcomes. </p>
<p id="nlbZTC">Councilmember Floyd goes beyond the quest for a survey; his opinion piece ends like this (emphasis added): </p>
<blockquote><p id="Fndjf0">At the very least we should ensure that this current project does not run a deficit, and if we are committed to a large stadium subsidy, <em><strong>then I believe our residents should have a say via a referendum.</strong></em></p></blockquote>
<p id="mubskd">That last line is intriguing. If the city needs to make such a big decision about its financial future, what not ask voters what they think? </p>
<p id="C3jNfr">Let’s start by making it clear that the city and county are <em>not required </em>to hold a referendum to provide support for the stadium. </p>
<p id="6Fn4Sh">You might recall past referenda pertaining to stadiums around Tampa Bay: Hillsborough County voted for a sales tax increase that helped support the construction of Raymond James Stadium back in 1996 (it’s due to expire in 2026), and there would likely have been a referendum on the development of the so-called “sail stadium” on the St. Petersburg waterfront had the Rays not yanked that proposal. </p>
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<p id="SqpGCe">The important distinction here is that both of those instances <em>required </em>a referendum. </p>
<p id="OkZLHF">Raising the sales tax to address capital needs, as was the case with the 1996 Community Investment Tax, definitively required a referendum. And in St. Petersburg, the downtown waterfront has a special status that can require a referendum for some redevelopment project like that sail stadium. </p>
<p id="7A4Wjs">Does using existing financial sources to redevelopment land that is not preserved require getting voter approval?</p>
<p id="jXEMy7">Let’s say city or county officials nonetheless wanted to gauge whether their constituents supported this project, couldn’t they put the question to their voters even if the results of a referendum were not binding? </p>
<p id="IQvUFY">“Asking the voters” seems like an appealing and very democratic way of addressing policy conflicts, but the reality is a bit muddier. </p>
<h2 id="XcykZl"><strong>Is there a case for a referendum?</strong></h2>
<p id="suUrMV">In general, referenda are tricky business, because voter participation in local elections tends to be low. </p>
<p id="XC3dmb">The City of St. Petersburg is known for a high degree of voter engagement, but even there the 2021 municipal elections were decided by 36.5% of registered voters. </p>
<p id="kY0IXx">Political scientists further note that even those who show up to vote often fill out just the top part of the ballot, and many just don’t get to the ballot questions down at the bottom. </p>
<p id="WuEJyd">So even if the city were to hold a referendum, would the results provide definitive proof that residents do or do not approve of a particular deal?</p>
<p id="uWnYYd">And of course the proposed deal for the stadium and surrounding redevelopment is complex. </p>
<p id="CNVm9Y">There are already competing claims about what the land is worth (for example, should the land be valued in its current state, or how much it could be sold for?), or how many jobs may be created by this redevelopment (good luck finding consensus there). </p>
<p id="hL8swA">Not many voters have the time to analyze the land appraisal processes, or the potential infrastructure costs (including understanding which are necessary whether a stadium is built or not), or the potential for tax increment financing, or the opportunity costs of investing in X rather than Y. </p>
<p id="2X1QKn">At the end of the day, in a representative democracy we elect representatives to do their homework and make decisions on complex matters. And our elected officials appoint subject area experts in areas like public finance and urban planning who can devote their days to fully understanding the implications of this project as their full time job, something few voters can do.</p>
<p id="aZmBLw">Is asking people to weigh in with a downballot Yes/No vote the best way to make policy decisions?</p>
<p id="Jj7Yqk">Now, do not hear what I’m not saying. There are valid arguments against the Rays receiving a multi-billion dollar handout in St. Petersburg, and public sentiment can and should play a role in the decision-making process, but surely there are better ways to decide whether taxpayer money should fund a stadium than simply taking the pulse of a city’s residents via referendum. </p>
https://www.draysbay.com/2024/3/11/24096621/should-a-referendum-decide-the-rays-future-in-st-petersburgDaniel Russell